1. I can’t get excited about the Bulldogs
The Western Bulldogs are a team that many believe are underachieving based on the talent they have on their list. Some have suggested it may be time to move on the coach as well. Whatever the case, I’m starting to think that the Dogs are simply just not as good as some think they should be. They’ve barely strung wins together this year and have only won once against any of the teams currently residing in the top eight.
Their 9-8 record reflects where they’re at as far as I’m concerned, and looking at their remaining draw, they’ll probably play finals as they have just two of their last six matches against sides currently in the eight, so they’ll be there courtesy of a soft finish to the home and away season. Their loss to Sydney was by no means a complete shock, but it is a true indication of the middle-of-the-road status they currently are living by. Their captain is still playing at a high level, but perhaps a few more need to get on board to make this team more formidable. Libba’s great, English is fast becoming one of the AFL’s best ruckmen, Treloar is racking up possessions and Naughton does threaten from time to time. And I’ll give a special mention to Cody Weightman and Jackson Macrae. There are some good players there, but they rarely all click on the same day, and it’s just not really happening for the Western Bulldogs in the way many thought it would.
I say they’re destined to play finals, but this week’s game against Essendon will decide whether they’re still in the eight this time next week.
Sydney found a way to win in what is really just a last-gasp effort to be a part of September action. Tom Papley played his role and celebrated his 29th birthday in style booting 4 goals and providing the spark up forward that we know he can. Errol Gulden would have to be close to leading the Swans’ best and fairest. He had another great game amassing 30 touches and is definitely somebody opposition coaches need to try and nullify. Sydney’s next six weeks features two sides currently in the eight in Essendon and Melbourne with both games being played in Melbourne which will make it hard. You’d think Sydney must win at least five of their last six to qualify, and the campaign starts in Perth next week against the Dockers who are barely going at the moment. The Swans are a long shot, but with their injury list looking slightly better than earlier in the season, and some winnable games coming up, you can’t dismiss them just yet.
2. The Lions at the G are definitely cursed
You’ll be hard-pressed to see a game with more twists and turns than the Friday night match between the Lions and the Demons at the MCG. The Demons started magnificently kicking the first four goals of the game until the Lions settled into the match and worked their way into a one-point lead by halftime. By the final break they’d worked themselves into a 21-point lead kicking seven goals to four in the third quarter and looked very much in control.
When Joe Daniher goaled early in the last term the lead had got out to 26 points and there was no indication the Demons were going to reel them in. Most of us were thinking that the Lions were going to win at the MCG and get the monkey off their back. It wasn’t until 13 minutes later that the Demons finally kicked their first goal for the quarter through a bit of Pickett brilliance, and at that stage there was around eight minutes of play time remaining.
We all know what happened after that with Jake Melksham being the toast of the town putting through his second goal that gave Melbourne the one-point advantage they would eventually cling to. In the space of less than eight minutes with the game seemingly under the Lions’ control, a 24-point lead turned into a one-point loss, and most of us are now becoming convinced that the Lions have done something to upset the gods of the MCG.
Last year they coughed up a seven-goal lead to the Tigers, and now this! Yes, we know they won a final there last season, but you need to go back four years since they won there during the home and away season. I’d be calling in some spiritual healers or exorcists myself.
Christian Petracca has now kicked four goals two weeks in a row proving his value as a forward asset. Pickett was dangerous kicking three and I’ve already mentioned the heroics of Melksham late in the game with two goals to get his team over the line. But, by far, Max Gawn was Melbourne’s best with 29 touches and a goal, which begs the question over what to do about Brodie Grundy who was intriguingly left out of the side. All indicators suggest they’ll stick with the one ruckman formula in the upcoming match against the Crows this week. And to think, the Dees were staring down the barrel of being three games adrift of the Lions and struggling to hang onto 4th place with just a few minutes remaining in this game.
The Lions will be doing some soul-searching this week. This is the one that got away. Any hopes of a home final in Week 1 of September action are all but gone. The media will have a field day feasting on their continual failure at the home of football. A quick look at the stats paints an interesting picture. Even though Lachie Neale played well and worked hard all night, when he doesn’t get to 20 possessions, that’s usually an off-night. In fact, the Lions’ highest possession getter was Joe Daniher with 24. They should’ve won still, but the good news is there is room for improvement, and they’ll need to be better against the Cats at the GABBA next week. Geelong are finding form and the Lions wouldn’t want to lose two in a row. That said, they seem a far harder prospect in Brisbane, but if they were a chance to lose one at home this season, this could be the one.
3. Nick Daicos is not going to drop off any time soon
It’s not often that you have a Brownlow favourite who is yet to play 50 games, but that’s where we’re at with Collingwood superstar Nick Daicos. He’s in his second season and is just 20 years of age, so I imagined the rigours of a full season would take its toll on the young man’s body and mind and that, by this stage of the year, it would be understandable if he wasn’t able to maintain his highest standard of football every week.
Well, we know that notion is way off the mark.
Against the Dockers on Saturday he topped the possession numbers for the match with 32 touches and a goal, and none of us are ever surprised by his consistently high level of output. There’s every chance he may have polled another three votes in this game and his odds of winning are starting to reach the unbackable mark. Maybe his brother Josh might give the umpires something to think about with his 31 touches, or Jamie Elliott’s four-goal effort, but almost every week he seems to be in the mix for votes in what could be the most obvious eventual winner yet. I may be wrong, but it looks pretty clear to me. The Pies head to Adelaide in their biggest test in a while to take on Port Adelaide next week. Port lowered their colours against the Blues and will be desperate to bounce back. I’m sure McRae will be watching many videos of the Carlton game this week.
The Dockers have now slumped to a bottom 4 spot on the ladder on the back of three straight losses after their impressive win against the Bombers in Round 16. O’Meara and Brayshaw worked hard for 30 possessions apiece, and the Dockers actually won the clearance count. So it seems as though their engine room is working OK, but it seems to fall apart after that. After finishing 5th last season, they were hoping for big things but it’s gone pear-shaped this year. Next week they take on the Sydney Swans at Optus Stadium. It’s an important game for the Swans and their chances of playing finals, but I also feel it’s important for the Dockers to avoid another poor performance and to try and win for their home fans. I’m also thinking a bottom-four finish won’t be great for their brand either.
4. The Saints are looking very shaky right now
Ross Lyon was hailed as a messiah early in the year with the injury-riddled Saints beating all comers jumping out to an impressive 4-0 start playing kids that would probably have spent more time in the VFL if the list was healthy. Unfortunately, not much has improved in terms of injury problems, and the youngsters like Owens, Caminiti, Phillipou and co who were starring in the early part of the season seem to be finding it hard to recapture that form. The Saints have a winnable game coming up against the struggling Kangaroos next week followed by another one against the Hawks, although the Saints did lose their Round 11 encounter against Hawthorn, so if they were to fall short again, I’d be putting a line through the Saints for finals this year.
Their last few games of the home and away season don’t make for good reading, and with six games to go, three wins might not even be enough to give them passage into September. Put whatever spin you would like to put on it, but this is exactly how last season played out for the Saints, and their former coach might be feeling a little hard done by right now.
I tipped the Suns this week for a variety of reasons. It was being played on the Gold Coast, the Saints were in indifferent form, and, of course, when coaches get the boot, we all know what happens the week after. One thing I didn’t take into consideration, and I believe there wasn’t enough fanfare about it all, is the fact Touk Miller came back last week after his long-term injury hiatus. He’s been the forgotten man for this season, and having him out there makes a lot of difference. He finished the game with 25 touches and really strengthened the midfield, but the surprise packet of the day was the form of Sam Flanders. He had a game-high 33 touches and looks as though he can finally lay claim to being in the Suns’ best 22 after a couple of seasons as a fringe player.
This win gives the Suns a bit of a sniff when it comes to finals action, but each time they’ve had a crunch game they’ve come up well short for the most part. Next week’s game against the Giants away from home will be tough as they’ve just won their 5th game in a row and look like a legitimate finals contender. In order to beat the Giants, Lukosius will need to kick another four goals, Ben King will need to shake of his poor form and hit the scoreboard, Touk Miller will need 30 plus touches and they’ll need to stop the GWS machine in its tracks. It’s a tall order, but, with a new coach, weird things happen.
5. Carlton is the Jekyll & Hyde of the AFL
I’ve seen possibly some of the worst football this season in the AFL from the Blues, and we’ve also seen this same team play some of the best football as well. The turnaround in Carlton’s form is nothing short of stunning, and possibly even extreme.
During their horror run of six consecutive losses, the Blues managed an average score of just 56 and losing by an average margin of 25 points. In their last four matches the Blues have averaged 113 points and have won all games by an average of 55 points. Many could see that the Blues were playing a much better brand of football after the first three of those wins, but up until Saturday’s twilight affair at Marvel, the Blues had failed to beat anybody sitting in the top eight.
The win against Port Adelaide has now convinced many that the Blues are well and truly back on track and could play finals. They’ve not only snapped a 13 game winning streak for the Power, they’ve also snapped their nine wins in a row at Marvel Stadium as well.
Just five weeks ago, the Blues put in what is arguably their worst performance of the year against the Bombers. Their pressure in that game was non-existent as demonstrated by their very low tackle count of just 33 for the game. Perhaps this low-level effort was the impetus for the turnaround as their pressure is now elite and as good as anyone in the competition currently. Observers of this game would’ve seen the inordinate number of smothers by the Blues and their ferocious tackles. The Power finished the game with slightly more touches than the Blues, but they were all hard-fought, and the final score showed it.
Jack Silvagni was one of Carlton’s best kicking four goals, and the late inclusion of Jesse Motlop paid dividends with his four goals in the first half. Patrick Cripps has regained form. It’s all going along on a much greater trajectory right now although the club will be waiting anxiously on the McKay knee injury report. That said, the forward line seemed to function quite well in his absence. Next week Carlton should chalk up their 5th win in a row against the struggling Eagles. And then a massive test awaits in Round 20 against the Pies. The Blues are a chance if they can maintain this level of form, but will Dr Jeckyll or Mr Hyde show up that day?
Port Adelaide were due for a loss, and they were missing Dixon and Horne-Francis, so it wasn’t a complete shock that this game went against them. It might be slightly concerning that they lost by a 50 point margin, but if they turn around next week and beat the Magpies at home, it can be put down as one of those days. However, a loss there and we might be singing a different tune. Carlton’s defensive unit made scoring hard for the Power. Despite entering their forward 50 on 62 occasions against Carlton’s 59, they only managed ten goals. Todd Marshall looked the most dangerous finishing with three goals, and Connor Rozee was very good kicking two goals from his 28 touches. Dan Houston continued his great season with a game high 41 possessions, but the Blues were all over them whenever they had the ball. It does beg the question as to where this level of intensity has been all year, but, for now anyway, the calls for Voss’s head have subsided.
You’ll have to wonder about the fate of Hinkley should the Power limp into the finals and fall short. The next six weeks are crucial for the team’s chances and his survival. Huge game looming this coming week.
6. Tom Hawkins loves playing against the Bombers
On Saturday night, after managing just 1.3 to halftime despite his side being a commanding 44 points ahead, Tom Hawkins’ contribution was just 1.3. He rectified that issue in the second half and finished with 5.3 to back up his Round Seven dominance against the Bombers where he finished with eight goals on that occasion. In fact, Hawkins has now kicked 27 in his past five outings against Essendon, and it seems as though they’re powerless to curb his influence in recent times. In fact, Essendon looked powerless to curb anything in this clash, eventually losing by 77 points in what is easily their worst performance of the year.
The first quarter set the tone with 7.5 to just 0.1 and the game was over. Geelong looked as though they were in a training drill surrounded by black and red witches hats. They entered their forward zone 64 times while the Bombers only managed to do so on 28 occasions. Max Holmes continued his good form with a game-high 33 touches, Stengle kicked three goals and Gryan Miers played well in his 100th with 26 touches and a goal.
The Cats are building nicely and find themselves in 5th position all of a sudden. Their run home is tough, but if this is an indicator, perhaps they might be up to challenging the top 3 teams who they’ll be playing in the lead-up to the finals. The Cats may just prove to be the ultimate spanner in the works, however, it was only 3 weeks ago when they played in that stinker of a draw against the Swans at the SCG. So, as they say, one hot day doesn’t make a summer.
This is a major setback for the Bombers. In the space of a week it has gone from talks of a drought-breaking year for the Essendon Football Club after their strong performance against the Crows to a side on the cusp of missing finals yet again. Going to Geelong is always a tough task, and I’m sure the club would’ve copped a loss, but the 77-point loss has decimated their percentage and with so many sides competing for those bottom four spots in the eight, it could ultimately cost them their chance to play finals.
This week’s game against the Western Bulldogs will go a long way towards deciding if either of these teams can make it. A loss will put the loser outside the eight straight away, and with games to come for the Bombers against GWS and Collingwood in the final two rounds, it might mean they sit out September.
7. Nobody saw GWS coming this year
It was back in Round 12 when the Giants lost by a goal to Richmond at home when they were sitting at 4-8 and looking very much like a side out of contention that was making up the numbers. They’d played some decent footy at times, but just looked as though they weren’t quite there yet. The story has changed dramatically since then.
The most impressive aspect of the Giants current run of five straight wins is their defence, led by Sam Taylor. They’ve only conceded an average of 57 points during this period, and after Tex Walker’s bright start with two goals in the first half, not only was he unable to get his hands on the ball after halftime, but by the end of the game his direct opponent finished with 21 touches and six marks. We are talking about a player who has filled the role vacated by an injured Phil Davis with aplomb and would be in serious consideration for an All-Australian honour again, health permitting.
The Giants also have one of the most influential captains going around in Toby Greene. He kicked three goals and sets up plenty more, and it has to be said that eyebrows were raised when he was given the leadership role, but those in the club obviously knew better. The Giants play the Suns at home next week and I expect them to win and find themselves inside the eight after Round 19.
The Crows are in a bit of strife. With games against Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Brisbane in the next four weeks coming up, they’re all but done. Of course, anything can happen, and they’ve shown they can compete with the best at times, but the lack of wins on the road, and now losing a game they were in control of on their home deck may just be the tipping point.
The five-goal to nil last quarter would really be a major disappointment for Nicks and the fan base. It looked as though the Giants were fitter and just wanted it more while all the Adelaide guns went into their shell. If they fail to make finals, and it looks increasingly likely now, this may be the game that they will look upon as the moment that cost them the opportunity. They’ll have to come out next week and do what they haven’t been able to do all year against the Demons, and that’s winning a game in Melbourne. Many teams do amazing things with their backs to the wall. I won’t write them off just yet, but a loss next week will be curtains for mine.
8. The Hawks are making progress while the Kangaroos are going nowhere
The Hawks have a young list that’s already full of promise. They’ve had their fair share of big losses this year, but they’ve also had a few surprise victories as well. One thing that’s certain is that even though they are sitting in 16th spot on the ladder with just five wins on the board, the gap between them and the 17th-placed North Melbourne is massive.
The Kangaroos were only kept in the game to half-time courtesy of the Hawks’ poor conversion in front of goal. The game could’ve been over by quarter time if the Hawks had their kicking boots on, but in the end, they settled for a comfortable 48-point win against a team who’ve now lost 15 straight. Newcombe, Worpel, Amon and Nash all had more than 30 possessions each in the midfield where the dominance translated to a whopping 71 inside 50s for the match – 30 more than the Kangaroos. Lewis and Breust both top-scored with three goals each. The form of Breust suggests one more year, but with Sam Mitchell at the helm, it’s anyone’s guess if he goes on or not. The Hawks take on the Tigers next Saturday at the MCG and will be hoping to provide some nuisance value to teams like Richmond trying to make it into September.
The Kangaroos made a fist of it with a bright second quarter and we hoped they’d remain competitive beyond the long break, but once Mitch Lewis kicked two early goals to launch the second half, it was mostly one-way traffic as their fans looked on with despair as they watched the team just above theirs on the ladder show just how big a gap there exists between the Kangaroos and the whole competition with the exception of West Coast. In a season that started so brightly, as each winless week passes, the dark clouds surround Arden Street with the club wondering what else can go wrong.
We still haven’t heard a word from Clarkson and we all wonder if he ever will coach again. He’d be watching from afar and it would be understandable if he decided not to return based on what he’s seeing. The countdown is on to their only potentially winnable game in Round 20 against the Eagles, but based on Sunday’s effort against the Hawks, they may end up on the wrong end of that one as well. And that would be about as much as their fans could take.
9. The Eagles may trouble some teams at home
It’s nothing new to suggest teams have a better record when playing at home, and that’s still the case with regards to the West Coast Eagles. Yes, they’re having a horror year, but there are some signs of a lift in terms of competitiveness in recent weeks at Optus Stadium. Back in Round 16 against the Saints they came within eight points of a victory and lead for a long part of that game. This week they never really looked like winning against Richmond, but it was a respectable 38 point loss in the end where they threatened to draw close at times. Perhaps their best chance of securing a win for their fans will come in Round 20 when they take on the Kangaroos at home.
The Kangaroos are looking pretty ordinary, and a quick analysis of the Eagles numbers demonstrates a superior percentage of 56.9 at home with just 41.5 away. Both numbers aren’t great, but the Roos look like they’re tiring as the season wears on. Oscar Allen booted another three goals and Dom Sheed topped the possessions for the Eagles with 28. They might be in for a tough week at Marvel next Saturday against the Blues, but all eyes will be on Round 20 after that.
The Tigers weren’t spectacular, but they got the job done and are still a factor in the race for the finals. Perhaps the game would’ve been a bit more lop-sided if they weren’t so inaccurate in front of goal in the first half. Shai Bolton played a great game but was one of the main culprits kicking 2.4, and Dusty finished with two goals from 23 touches, although he may be in a spot of bother with an errant elbow in the second term. Losing Dustin Martin for a week or two is something they could do without as his form of late has helped the Tigers win five of their last six matches.
The game against the Hawks next week should see Richmond going in as favourites, but it’s a game you wouldn’t want to take lightly. A loss there would make it supremely difficult to stay in touch. Both the Tigers and the Blues need to bank as many wins as they can before the finals to stay in the hunt. And for any side taking on the Eagles in Perth for the remainder of the season, including the Dockers, you wouldn’t want to take it too lightly.
10. I’m wondering what the record winning streak might be after a six-game losing streak
Carlton had a horror run from Rounds 8 to 13 losing six games straight and really looked out of sorts. They’ve now won four in a row and have taken a genuine scalp for the first time in second-placed Port Adelaide. Coming up against the Eagles at Marvel this Saturday, one would have to imagine that winning a 5th game in a row is all but assured. The week after sees the Blues take on Collingwood, and that could be the end of their winning streak, although the way they’re playing at the moment, a Blues fan like myself can dare to dream whereas five weeks ago that would’ve been foolish to even consider.
My mind goes back to the Swans who lost the first six games in 2017 and went on to win twelve of their remaining fourteen games to make finals. After their six initial losses, they won the next three and suffered a loss in Round 10 before then rattling off seven straight wins.
So, as it stands right now, the Blues look likely to win five in a row after losing six. I’ve tried Google searching to see how this compares to other losing into winning streaks, and I’m almost certain there’ll be something more impressive out there than this one. I’m not really having much luck as I think Google just doesn’t seem to get what I’m asking for. What I’ve seen in terms of form turnarounds with Carlton is quite remarkable, and almost confusing to be honest. Obviously, something has changed within the group to see them playing a style of football we were beginning to think they weren’t capable of any more. It could be a flash in the pan that comes to a grinding halt very soon, but I’m just very curious as to what other similar scenarios exist in the history of our great game. I just don’t really know where to go to find them. And if the unthinkable happens and the Blues beat the Pies in Round 20 and go on to make finals for the first time in a decade, I’m sure even non Carlton fans would be impressed with the way in which a club in crisis managed to dig itself out of a hole. Don’t worry kids. Us Carlton fans won’t take the lid off until these things actually happen. In fact, most of us prepare ourselves on a weekly basis for the next disappointment.
Anyhow, if any of the readers out there can enlighten me and the other readers of The Mongrel Punt on what stands as the record of losses in a row followed by a winning streak, I would be very grateful. I’m still scratching my head as to what I’m seeing right now and I sincerely believe this kind of instance would have to be very rare indeed.
