Be honest — You didn’t expect this game to go down to the wire like it did, did you?
Plenty of words have been written about the Bombers in 2026, and until last week, most of them were pretty unflattering. But with a win in the books, Essendon seem to have freed themselves up a bit to play with some intensity. They were in the game right up until the end against a premiership contender.
Ultimately, the Suns were just a little too much for the Bombers, but Essendon will take a lot out of this one. The maths are simple. Both teams kicked 17 goals. Gold Coast kicked 17 behinds. Essendon kicked eight. The Suns won by nine. Spend as long as you like staring at those numbers, because they really do tell the story better than any match report could.
Essendon played well enough to win, pressed hard enough to deserve it, and left Queensland with nothing to show for it because they lacked that little bit of polish when it mattered. Gold Coast, to their credit, held on through a last quarter that would have had the People First Stadium medical team checking blood pressures in the coaches’ box, and Suns forward coach Brad Miller scheduling in extra goal-kicking practice as soon as they touch down in Queensland. The Suns are back on the winners list at 4-2 and looking like a genuine top-eight side. The Bombers are 1-5 and still looking like a team that could beat you on their day, so long as the day finishes at three-quarter time.
Recent form
Gold Coast (3-2): The Suns started 2026 like a team with something to prove, winning their first three games and looking every bit the dark horse flag threat that the preseason chattering class had quietly nominated them as. Then something happened. Back-to-back losses — a shellacking from Melbourne at the MCG in Round 4, and a hiding from Sydney at Gather Round that wasn’t much closer — left the narrative around the Suns shifting from “genuine contenders” to “slow starters with a problem.” They looked disorganised out of the blocks in both losses, and there’s a recurring theme of teams hitting them first and hitting them hard while they take a quarter or two to warm up. Getting Petracca back solved a lot of these issues, and against Essendon on their own turf, he was genuinely important for the season’s direction.
Essendon (1-4): Here is a sentence I was not certain I would ever get to write in this publication: the Bombers broke their losing streak. Seventeen consecutive defeats, a club record that had stood since 2016, and they tied it, and then they obliterated it with a 45-point win over Melbourne at Adelaide Oval in Gather Round that was about as convincing as anything you’ll see from a 0-4 team. Merrett and Parish controlled the midfield, Elijah Tsatas was excellent, Archie Roberts had the game of his life, and Brad Scott allowed himself one very measured post-match smile and quietly deactivated his “Open to Work” status on LinkedIn. Whether that win was a genuine turning point or a product of Melbourne being Melbourne on the day, we still don’t know. They were almost there, but as we all know, almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
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Ins and Outs
Gold Coast SUNS
In: Christian Petracca, Bailey Humphrey, Jake Rogers, Oscar Adams
Out: Noah Anderson (illness), Sam Clohesy (omitted), Lachie Gulbin (omitted), Alex Davies (omitted)
Four changes, and the one that matters is Petracca. The former Melbourne superhero has taken to his new home with a quiet professionalism that’s been impressive to watch, and he’s become the Suns’ dangerous target when up forward, and their blitzkreig warrior in the middle — the bloke who takes the ball at speed, bulldozes his way through and finds a target when everything else is a bit chaotic. Getting him back into the side after missing last week gives Gold Coast’s midfield a quality that was notably absent in the Sydney loss.
Bailey Humphrey’s return is also worth noting. He’s the small forward who plays with real intent and can make a defender’s afternoon miserable if the service is right.
The loss of Noah Anderson is significant, though. He had appendix surgery recently and is expected to miss a few weeks, which means the Suns were essentially trading one important midfielder for another, with the net result probably being about even on paper.
Clohesy, Gulbin and Davies go out via omission, which suggests Damien Hardwick liked his main group this week and simply needed to reshuffle around the returning personnel.
Essendon
In: Saad El-Hawli
Out: Jaxon Prior (managed)
One change. Just one. After weeks of chaos, scrambling selections and a revolving door of inclusions and omissions driven by the injury list, Brad Scott looked at the side that beat Melbourne by 45 points, decided it was basically right, and changed one player. That’s the most confident selection statement he’s made all year, and it’s probably deserved.
El-Hawli coming in for the managed Prior is a like-for-like swap that doesn’t fundamentally alter the structure. Prior staying home for a bit of rest after some heavy recent workloads is sensible enough — this Essendon side has had enough injury carnage in 2026 without adding to it by running someone into the ground unnecessarily.
The key names are all there. McGrath captaining. Parish and Merrett in the middle. Caddy up forward. The backline that was genuinely excellent against Melbourne. If the Bombers can replicate that four-quarter performance away from home against a reasonable Gold Coast outfit, the conversation about this team changes in a fairly meaningful way.
The Start
Essendon came out swinging and landed a few before Gold Coast figured out the combination on the safe. El-Hawli kicked the first, Archer May was generating metres and territory from defence like a bloke on a mission, and the Bombers looked, for the first fifteen minutes of the game, like a team that understood what it was doing.
They looked almost comfortable, like they remembered this footy stuff was really just about getting a ball and giving it to a mate, or at least a bloke in the same coloured strip.
Christian Petracca kicked his first goal on return from injury to give Gold Coast a bit of something to work with, then the teams went a bit tit-for-tat before the Suns kicked the last three goals of the quarter, all from stoppages, two from centre bounces, and suddenly Essendon’s comfortable lead had a slightly uncomfortable feeling about it.
The opening quarter said a lot. Essendon controlled territory and pressure. Gold Coast controlled what happened when the ball landed. Those two things being true simultaneously is how you end up with a close game instead of an easy one.
Gresham, Edwards and Wright goaled for the Bombers, and the Dons led by a reasonable margin through much of the second quarter. Gold Coast kept responding through Ben King, Petracca getting his second, and Ethan Read — a bloke who does his job without a lot of fanfare — but the game stayed within reach for both sides. Read’s role on the wing was a real standout for the Bombers. Track watchers reported he’d trained there in the preseason, but seeing him deployed there in a real game proves that Damien Hardwick knows when to pull a trigger on a move.
The inaccuracy was building though, the Suns particularly, slotting goals but spraying behinds at a rate that should have been a warning sign for their final quarter.
The stats at halftime were interesting. Essendon won contested ball across the half. Gold Coast had the better of the stoppages from a scoring perspective. Darcy Parish was already in his work, nine clearances for the day is where he ended up, and it was already obvious this wasn’t going to be a game decided by one team running over the top of the other.
The Finish
The third quarter was remarkable. Essendon came out and dominated the first ten minutes, spending 71% of the time in their forward half, winning the first three centre bounces, and kicking five goals through Robey, Kako, McGrath and others while looking like a team ready to put the game away. Gold Coast gave up the first chunk of the quarter, regrouped, and then kicked the last four goals of the term as the Suns outscored the Bombers from that period on to lead by 12 at the final break.
Petracca’s third goal in that run was the sharp one. A burst from congestion, clean off the boot, the sort of thing that reminded everyone why the Suns went and got him.
That lead looked like it was enough. What followed proved it wasn’t, quite.
A quick goal to Lachie Weller within the first 30 seconds seemed to be the sealer, but Edwards, Caddy and Robey responded quickly to get the Bombers back within striking distance. The margin shrank from to just eight with several minutes left, and the Gold Coast faithful went very quiet in the way home crowds do when they suddenly realise their team might not actually be safe.
Gold Coast held on. Barely. The Suns scored 0.4 from set shots in the last quarter, which in the context of Essendon kicking four straight goals, very nearly cost them the game. Rowell and a couple of later behinds kept enough scoreboard pressure on, and the Bombers ran out of time.
Final score: 119-110. Nine points. Both teams kicked 17 goals. A great day for advertisers.
Controversial moment
Damien Hardwick came out of the press conference and called the umpiring “chook lotto.” He sounded genuinely frustrated, or at least trying to put together a case for getting Touk Miller’s incidental umpire contact off the headlines. The free kick count finished 20-15 in Essendon’s favour, and depending on which quarter you watched, it felt like it could have reasonably been wider either way. Hardwick’s point was about inconsistency rather than the count itself, which is a harder complaint to argue with than “we didn’t get enough frees.”
I think any sane footy fan will admit that umpiring is a tough job. They can’t see everything, and the game is so quick that some mistakes are inevitable. But, the introduction of extra field umpires seems to have just added extra variations on how rules are administered. We need consistency from umpire to umpire, quarter to quarter, week to week.
The “chook lotto” line will run in the media for a few days. Hardwick probably knew that when he said it. I think chook raffle tickets may see a sales increase on the side.
Jordan Ridley came off with a possible injury in the third quarter, Thomas Edwards came off late in the game with concussion protocols that will also cause some discussions around social media, and the Essendon injury list quietly added two more names to its already well-populated guest registry.
Midfield matchup
Essendon won the clearance count 37-29, and won the centre bounces 20-15. Parish had 30 disposals and 11 clearances. Merrett had 34 disposals, 13 tackles, nine marks, eight tackles, nine score involvements and 655 metres gained in a best on ground performance that was as complete a display as he’s shown this year. Tsatas looked handy with 25 disposals and 7 clearances, while Parish’s 11 clearances were the result of some great in-and-under work. By most standard midfield measures, the Bombers should have won this game by several goals.
The reason they didn’t comes down to one player. Matt Rowell had 35 disposals, 11 clearances, 17 contested possessions and 11 score involvements. For all the good numbers Essendon’s midfielders put up, Rowell’s output trumped the lot because his work consistently created forward entries that Gold Coast converted. Touk Miller had 26 disposals and 659 metres gained, and Petracca gave the Suns exactly the quality they’d been missing — a player who can beat the opposition’s structure on his own when things break down.
The inside 50 efficiency told the bigger story. Gold Coast converted 66.7% of their entries. Essendon converted 49.1% of theirs. More clearances, fewer goals. That’s a skill issue, not a midfield issue, and it’s a different problem to solve.
Ruck Battle
Jarrod Witts took the main role for the Suns while Wright took the taps in the middle. Witts dominated, as you’d expect for a full-time ruck, with two-metre-Peter won 10 taps, but gave up 36 to Witts, which is a reasonably significant advantage. Essendon still managed to win the clearance count overall despite losing the taps comprehensively, which says something for their ground-level work.
Gotta give the nod to Witts though, and not for the first time this season. I like watching him ply his craft, he’s really holding down his role well.
The Stats that Sting
- Both teams kicked 17 goals. Gold Coast kicked 17 behinds. Essendon kicked 8. That is not a typo. The Suns were more accurate from set shots across the first three quarters (7.3 from set shots) and then scored 0 from 4 set shots in the last quarter when they needed them most. For context, that last-quarter set shot inaccuracy probably cost them the pressure of the final minutes, rather than a Bombers comeback — they gifted 24 points back to Essendon by hitting the post and missing from in front.
- Essendon’s pressure was at a season high — 72 tackles (season record), a pressure rating of 189, also a season best. This is a different Essendon side to the one that couldn’t buy a win in the first four rounds, and it’s not a coincidence that the results are changing.
- Rowell: 35 disposals, 11 clearances, 17 contested possessions. If you want one player’s stat line to explain why Gold Coast won a game where Essendon actually won the clearance count, it’s that.
- Essendon’s inside 50 efficiency: 49.1%. For all the good work done through the middle of the ground, the Bombers still couldn’t convert at the forward end at the rate they needed to win a game of this quality.
- Gold Coast spent 84 minutes and 55 seconds in front, Essendon spent 39 minutes and 59 seconds — despite trailing for most of it, the Bombers kept the time-in-front number honest right until the end.
- Thomas Edwards and Jordan Ridley both came off with possible injuries. The Bombers’ injury ward continues to earn more visitors than any club would like.
Final thoughts
There’s a version of this game where the Bombers win and the whole conversation about their season shifts. They outworked Gold Coast by most pressure measures, controlled large parts of the game with their clearance work, and produced their most sustained four-quarter effort of 2026. Brad Scott will have seen enough on Saturday to feel genuinely good about the direction, even if the result says otherwise. Their score of 110 is the first time they kicked over a hundred points since 2024 against Adelaide, and their biggest score since round two, 2023. They beat Melbourne, and gave Gold Coast some palpitations. That’s not nothing.
The inaccuracy up forward is the thing. It was the thing against Melbourne too, but the Bombers were peppering the sticks so much that it didn’t really matter. It was an improved effort, but a little more class within the arc will go a long way to turning these heartbreakers into gutsy victories. t
Gold Coast are 4-2 and the Petracca return has given their midfield something it was clearly missing. Rowell is playing the best football of his career. They held on when the game was genuinely in the balance, which is what good teams do. The Suns have a claim to being a legitimate September outfit, and this win didn’t hurt that case at all.
Next up
Essendon face Collingwood at the MCG on ANZAC Day. The traditional game, the big crowd, the full-on occasion. The Bombers will have the emotion of the day behind them, a second straight performance that showed genuine improvement, and the knowledge that Collingwood is not exactly firing on all cylinders right now. Collingwood had a bit of luck to overcome Carlton, and their best and worst have a fair distance between them.
But, ANZAC day games between these two have been ones where form and list management haven’t had as much impact as sheer guts and heart. It’s hard to make a call here, as it could be that Essendon are hungrier for letting this week’s game slip, but tipping against Collingwood in the big ones is a brave option.
But what is ANZAC day for if not to celebrate bravery?
Essendon by 13.
Gold Coast travel to Launceston to face Hawthorn at UTAS on ANZAC Day. Hawthorn have been in great form since their round one loss to the Giants, and UTAS is not an easy venue, especially with the Suns coming off a week where they nearly blew a 36-point lead. A lot has to go right for Gold Coast to take this one in a venue that is as different from the sunny Queensland climate as possible in the comp, but, I think they might have a little bit too much grunt in the middle. That’s not talking down Hawks, but just recognising how good the Suns are.
GC by 15.