1. The Bombers thought the season was two weeks too long
Bombers fans would’ve been getting excited at the half-way mark of the season as they sat within the eight having won eight games from the first thirteen matches and were showing signs of contending for the finals. They only managed three more wins from their last ten outings including two wins against the two bottom teams, and in the last fortnight against the Giants and Magpies they put up embarrassing performances losing both games by an aggregate of just under 200 points despite still being in the mix for a finals spot at Round 23.
It’s hard to understand what went wrong but I’m sure whether they admit it publicly or not, there would be some concern within the club. In the last fortnight only Zach Merrett can truly hold his head up. He still got plenty of the ball and never stopped trying, and despite matching Collingwood statistically in many areas they were soundly beaten. It’s a disappointing end to what seemed a promising season, and it’s no way to lead in to 2024. I still believe Brad Scott was a great inclusion, but now that the honeymoon is over, some tough questions will need answers over the summer months.
Collingwood have been the frontrunner all year and only recently have they shown any vulnerability. Injuries to a few key players are certainly a factor, but in this final phase of the home and away season, were we looking at a team who were experiencing a downturn in their dominant form, or were they merely managing themselves knowing a top two position was all but assured? Craig McRae has come into the coaching ranks clearly knowing the caper so it would not surprise me if this mentality was in the playbook and things were tinkered with to ensure better long term outcomes. All I know at this stage is the Pies will go into week one of the finals refreshed and possibly with some key players set to return. Even Nick Daicos is a slight possibility to make a return late in the finals, and Darcy Moore looks likely for week one.
If they genuinely have fallen away a little in form, we’ll get a much better idea as to what the real story is after that first finals game. However, if they come out all guns blazing and win well, it will have them slamming back into favouritism and might see McRae lauded as a genius. Against the Bombers, Tom Mitchell was one of the Pies best allaying fears he may have been overlooked in the finals due to some patchy form of late. And by and large the Pies list is predominantly healthy. I think they’re still going to prove to be the ones to beat.
2. The Dockers seem more at home on the road
Going over to Perth can be a challenge for most teams even when the teams from the West are not necessarily world-beaters. This year, however, we’ve seen the Dockers humbled many times at Optus Stadium, and yet their form on the road has seen them beat the likes of Sydney at the SCG, the Demons at the MCG as well as Geelong at GMHBA for a staggering third time in a row. If you’re a half-decent team from Western Australia, you’d be looking at banking a majority of wins at home, so the fact they only won about half of them suggests it provided no genuine advantage and has therefore cost them any chance of playing finals.
The best of the Dockers is still pretty good, but we just didn’t see it enough this year despite solid seasons from Serong and Brayshaw in the middle, a defence lead by Alex Pearce which held its own and an emerging forward in Jye Amiss. These guys all featured well against the Hawks and there is some cause for optimism at Fremantle, but this year is a disappointment no doubt. Winning games at home for the sides outside of Victoria is a must as their travelling schedule is a huge disadvantage, and no doubt Longmuir will be scratching his head wondering why this was a problem.
It was a disappointing end to the season for Sam Mitchell’s men. I’m fairly certain he would’ve loved to get a win to end up with eight wins in a year of a promising glimpse into the future of the Hawthorn Football Club. You would already give their seven wins a pass mark based on where their list is at and how they looked early in the season. Still, Hawthorn will go into next year with some hope. We’ve seen the emergence of many promising players, but it’s hard to say whether or not finals will be in the frame. That would require more consistency and less games where they don’t show up. I think Sam Mitchell seems the real deal, and as long as he can keep developing this list, the five year plan looks ominous.
Against the Dockers Will Day topped the possession count with 30 touches and their midfielders in Worpel, Newcomber and Nash were also busy. Hopefully, next season, they can get more out of their taller forwards in terms of consistency. They can’t rely on Breust forever. That will be a focus next year I suspect.
3. That Nick Larkey bloke goes all right
When your team finished 17th on the ladder with just three wins for the year and is the second worst scoring team this season, it’s a mighty fine effort to finish with 71 goals for the season as well as capping off the year with a career best nine goals against the Suns on Saturday. I knew getting Larkey’s signature on paper earlier in the year was great for the club, but it looks even better now. Hopefully next season will see more stability at the club with Clarkson back at the helm as well as another year of development with the group.
Perhaps some clever drafting and player trading might bring them back from the wilderness. I still like Harry Sheezel for the Rising Star. He was great all year with another high possession game to end his season. Winning this game was big for the club. The last thing fans wanted was another wooden spoon even if it meant getting the number one pick. And the last thing we wanted to hear was any talk of tanking. It might just be a case of those days being in the past.
The Suns were sitting in 10th position on the ladder after Round 15 with 7 winds and were only outside the top eight on percentage. They were also exhibiting form that suggested they could play finals and many were talking of that drought breaking year. Then when the season wore on and they began to fall away, interim coach said the aim was to better their best ever season of ten wins. They weren’t even able to match it finishing with just 9 wins after managing only 2 wins from their last 9 games for the year.
It’s a disappointing result by any metric, and now the club would be looking ahead to 2024 with triple premiership coach Damien Hardwick in the role. They’ll be hoping he can get the best out of the list which does have talent but just doesn’t seem to be able to be at their best for long enough during games. You have to wonder if there’s any truth to the rumour that Dusty might head up there to join his old coach. That would be something for the Suns, and even though he is in the twilight of his career, his form this year hasn’t been too far off his best at times. Imagine him working alongside Rowell and Anderson, as well as late season bloomer Sam Flanders. He could also play forward in tandem with Ben King. I like the idea, but will it happen remains to be seen. Whatever the case, if Hardwick can’t lift the fortunes of this club, you’d almost have to cut your losses. Are you listening AFL?
4. It will be a doomsday scenario if Brisbane don’t make the Grand Final
There is no doubt that Brisbane have been very good under Chris Fagan, but their finals record is disappointing considering all the Top 4 finishes they’ve had in recent times. Fagan has been at the helm since 2017 and they’ve played finals every year since 2019. Three out of the last four years they finished in the Top 4 including twice at second with the home final, yet they have failed to make a Grand Final so far. In a year where they have not lost a game at the GABBA, and the prospect of winning two consecutive finals on the basis of them having the home ground advantage, if they lose at home for the first time this year and fail to make the final day it would be nothing short of a disaster.
I’m sure Fagan would know this and would be feeling the pressure. Their last two home wins were not overly convincing, although this week’s game against the Saints was only close due to their inaccuracy in front of goal. Lachie Neale starred on Saturday with another 30 possession game. They’ll be playing the Power in the first final. Port Adelaide on the road is a far better proposition than at Adelaide Oval, but finals football is different. Both coaches have a recent history of making finals without great success. But a Lions win will set them up nicely for a premiership tilt.
The Saints fought valiantly and stayed in the game till close to the end, but realistically they were never likely to win. Winning at the GABBA is just so hard, made all the more harder by entering their forward 50 just 38 times against 61 by the Lions. The Saints won the possession count on the night, so it only goes to show they were a little indirect with their ball movement. That said, the Saints stood tall late in the year to make the finals when many thought they wouldn’t.
Jack Sinclair got 30 possessions off half-back in another very impressive performance. I think we’ll be hearing his name a lot during the Brownlow count. He’s your quintessential modern day half back flanker who plays their role much like a midfielder rebounding forward entries and running off their opponents. He’s been one of, if not the most important players at the Saints this year. Tim Membrey bobbed up with 3 goals in the absence of Max King. With him heading into finals finding his touch after missing a large chunk of the season, and hopefully the return of King, the scoring power of the Saints may just make them a formidable opponent.
5. Beating the depleted Cats wasn’t enough for the Dogs
It’s no secret that the big names being rested for this game would not have been the case had Geelong still been a chance to play finals. In doing so, it was obvious that the Bulldogs had their best chance of winning against the Cats at GMHBA for the first time in years. Even though the Cats came out of the gates pretty quickly and even held sway by a goal at the final break, nobody was surprised when the Bulldogs pulled away with a big final term to record a 25 point victory to put them back into the eight, albeit only temporarily. They would’ve been hopeful that the Blues would hold off the Giants to allow them to remain in eighth, but it wasn’t to be.
One of the real points of interest in this game was the performance of Bontempelli. Some believe a best on ground effort might just put him ahead of Nick Daicos in the Brownlow stakes, and with 31 touches in a pretty slick effort, he may well get those 3 votes. Although the retiring Isaac Smith with 36 touches and a goal in his final game might have something to say about that. You have to wonder who would have had more than 36 touches in their last ever game?
Geelong’s season could be summed up by the fact their list is aging and it appears to have finally caught up with them a little quicker than expected. No doubt Chris Scott will be disappointed nonetheless, but there are so many players over 30 down at the cattery that something had to give. Many saw this year’s Cats as sleeping giants that would still make finals and cause havoc, but their season finished in a whimper losing five of their last six games.
Dangerfield had another year in which he was banged up more often than not. I’m sure his mind wants him to play on, but I daresay his body is screaming for the end. Sam Menegola played a good game but has been missing for most of the year. We know Hawkins will go around again, and rightly so, but what will we be saying this time next year? He’ll be 36 in July, so if he doesn’t fire and gets injured a few times, it could prove costly. Chris Scott will have to play more youth next season. We’ve seen a lot of good sides in the past that have won premierships fall off the perch after retaining too many players a year or two too long, and Geelong are in serious danger of following suit. They certainly need to find something if they want to contend for finals in 2024.
6. Tex and Charlie both kicked 19 against the Eagles for the year
It was definitely an advantage in terms of Coleman prospects if you happened to be in a team that played the Eagles twice this year. The two front-runners in the Coleman race both took full toll and just so happened to kick nine and ten goals each in their two outing against the wooden spooners. It seemed that the Eagles simply didn’t have the capability to keep those power forwards under control. In some ways you could argue it made the race a little lop-sided, although Charlie and Tex are a little ahead of the pack.
Larkey for the Kangaroos did OK against West Coast who they also played twice kicking 8 goals across the two games, but the two leaders blew them off the park. Walker had a modest two goals to half time and the Eagles actually lead at that point. With the game on the line in the third term, big Tex stood up kicking three goals, and in the last quarter, a tired looking Eagles team couldn’t stop him from booting another four and eventually lost by a sizeable 45 points. Adelaide have probably come up short for the finals by that dreadful goal-umpiring decision. There are still no words to describe how bad that was.
The Eagles thought they may have avoided the wooden spoon but the Kangaroos had other ideas. North winning over the Suns does mean they get access to the number one pick, but a proud club like the Eagles won’t like that. Tim Kelly has lifted his rating late in the year. McGovern and Cripps returning made them look less of a basket case, but they’re still well off the pace and a turnaround will require some pretty clever list management.
The big question for now is whether Adam Simpson will keep his job or not. Five wins in two years does not augur well, but none of us know what really goes in within the club’s four walls. And premiership coaches are few and far between. I am not sure why I feel this way, but I’d give him one more year. The last thing they need is a young coach with no track record, and I don’t see anyone of stature available that could come in and have an immediate impact. That’s my two cents.
7. Port’s path to premiership glory is tough
It’s been a solid season for Ken Hinkley’s men after coming into the season under great pressure. After Round 3 with just 1 win on the board, some had already consigned Hinkley’s fate as the coach most likely to be sacked. That was before a 13 game winning streak propelled them into the Top 2, followed by a stumbling 4 straight losses before they steadied the ship and won their last three games. However, as good as they have been, finishing third means they now face the toughest assignment in the first week of finals taking on Brisbane at the GABBA. If they somehow managed to break their undefeated run at home this season, all of a sudden they would find themselves in a home preliminary final. No doubt this will be the vision Ken and all the coaches will be implanting into the minds of the playing group.
It’s a tall order, but as recent results at the GABBA have suggested, not completely out of the question. As was the case with Bontompelli closing in on Nick Daicos in the Brownlow running, some have also suggested Zak Butters with a strong game to finish with might get him close to the mark as well. With 30 touches against his name he’s done his chances no harm either. Rozee with 33 touches and a goal may steal votes of Butters, but the young star is well in the mix. The Power will need to find their absolute best in a fortnight to overcome the Lions.
Richmond are officially now under that “end of an era” banner. Even the forward line minus Jack Riewoldt looked out of character. They played well for three quarters trailing by just a kick at the final break, but eventually the Power took control of the game running out winners by a comfortable 31 points. Now the search for a new coach begins.
We can look forward to the return of Tom Lynch next year, although he will be 31 and has had his share of injury problems recently. Dustin Martin seemed to get better and better as the season wore on. He ended up with 33 touches and a goal amid speculation he may head to the Suns for next season. I imagine the club will be frantically trying to convince Dusty to remain a one-club player. After their three premiership wins in four years, it looks as though the Tigers can no longer consider themselves a top side any more. They have a lot of big holes to fill at the club and it seems unlikely it can be done in one trade period. But we’re all envious of what they’ve achieved.
8. Bayley Fritsch is a big in for the Demons
It seems quite clear to most of us that Melbourne’s most effective forward right now is Bayley Fritsch. He’s been missing since Round 17 and the Dees have been good but still seemed shaky at times down forward. Melksham has stepped up and hit the scoreboard, but in his first game back after seven weeks on the sidelines, Fritsch was outstanding against the Swans booting 5 goals and suggesting he’s ready for a huge finals series.
Melbourne sent a warning to the other teams in the finals on Sunday. A win for the Swans would have meant a home final for them, and a Melbourne win or loss was inconsequential as they were not going to move either way from their 4th position on the ladder. Yet despite the Swans having more at stake, the Demons overpowered them and Fritsch’s five goal haul in a low scoring affair played a massive role. Melbourne go into week one full of confidence taking on top placed Collingwood who they already beat on the King’s Birthday weekend. One gets the feeling that the Pies would’ve preferred taking on one of the interstate teams during the first round of finals.
Whatever the case, the clash between these two will be huge, and if the Dees were to get the chocolates with Fritsch kicking a bag, not only will it derail the Pies season in a big way, but all of a sudden it would propel them to virtual favouritism. Keep an eye out for Petracca on Brownlow night too. He’ll be polling well, and this was another top notch performance.
The Swans looked like they were cruising to victory leading by 3 goals midway through the third term. However, they were kept goalless from that time on while the Demons kicked the last six goals of the game including three last quarter goals to Fritsch. What this result means is they will have to now face Carlton in the first week in Melbourne. A win would’ve meant a home final against the Saints.
This loss came about despite Errol Gulden notching up an incredible 42 touches and 2 goals, while Callum Mills had 30 touches, 1 goal and a staggering 12 tackles for the game. It’s a credit to the club to have worked their way into the finals after being as low as 15th on the ladder just 8 weeks ago. They will be wanting to make their mark by beating the Blues. It will be a tall order as the Blues have been up for a while and will want to bounce back for their fans after losing to the Giants. The Swans are always a danger and the Blues will have to play well to ensure a win. During this game we got to farewell Lance Franklin after his stellar career. Now there’s a player who will be missed.
9. The Giants played like a team that had more at stake
Make no mistake, the Giants are a formidable unit and are more than worthy finalists. It was a fitting result to see them win this match and push the Bulldogs out. The Blues looked good early with Charlie securing the Coleman outright with two first quarter goals, but as the game wore on, it was obvious that GWS simply wanted it more and were not going to be denied. They destroyed the Blues on turnover, outscoring them in this way by a staggering 48 points.
In their Round 2 clash earlier this season against Carlton, Toby Greene was barely sighted finishing with just five possessions and a goal. This time around he was far more damaging finishing with 4 goals from 18 touches. And there was a brief period during the final term that the Giants lead by as much as 45 points and had actually surpassed St Kilda on percentage. The home final was beckoning, but the Blues hit the scoreboard a few times late to deny them this, so now they need to take on the Saints in Melbourne.
Coming into this game, the Blues were unable to be shifted from 5th position no matter what the result was. A 100 point result either way meant literally nothing in the scheme of things as far as their finals prospects went. They were level pegging with the Giants midway through the final term but were outscored seven goals to just two for the rest of the game. I don’t imagine the club will be too concerned. If the Blues had any chance of climbing the ladder or improving their position with a victory, it’s fair to say that Patrick Cripps would not have been rested, nor would Charlie Curnow sit out much of the final term.
You could see as the game wore on that Carlton were more concerned with ensuring Charlie lands his second consecutive Coleman Medal while avoiding injuries where possible. Sadly for Blake Acres he was subbed out with what appears to be an injured collarbone. It would be a great shame if he was unable to participate in the finals after what has been a strong season since coming across from Fremantle. The Blues are now in the finals for the first time in a decade. They can focus on beating the Swans for now. They would hate to exit too early after ten years of no finals action.
10. Tanking seems a thing of the past – or is it?
It was obvious for all to see that this year’s battle for the wooden spoon between North Melbourne and the West Coast Eagles was not a case of trying to secure a number one pick. North Melbourne won the last game of the season this week against the Suns and could have had access to the highest ranked draftee but chose to go out and put the Eagles back on the bottom after their shock victory against the Bulldogs had them staring down the barrel of back to back last placed finishes. Thankfully for the club and its supporters, they got a much needed morale-boosting win putting an end to any speculation that they were playing a certain way to attain high picks. And it’s pleasing to see that these struggling clubs are always keen to go out and win, no matter the cost.
With all that in mind, when a side like Carlton enters finals with little or nothing to play for in that final round, is that akin to tanking if they stay in second gear, rest certain players or play players out of position? Or is it just good player management? Either way, in one form or other, it definitely goes on. I can’t say with any certainty whether the Blues entered this game with any genuine attempt to take it a little easier than normal. I certainly don’t mean to disrespect the effort of the Giants who were great on Sunday night. I’m just putting forward the notion that when a team such as Carlton entered any game that might not have a great deal of meaning, it has to have some impact on the way the game is approached.
Clubs would never admit it publicly, but what they say when we’re not in earshot within the club is anyone’s guess. The reality is that Michael Voss probably won’t be too fussed about this loss. And he may well prefer it being the Swans in Week One. They knew entering the game that a loss would mean just that. And maybe they didn’t give it their all…