1. Carlton have made a statement.
In the first ten rounds, the Blues were going along OK, but there were definite question marks on just how far they might go. They won a few close games, and then the loss came culminating in a hiding at the hands of the Swans back in Round 10. That loss catapulted the Blues out of the eight with a weakened percentage, and many scribes suggested that perhaps the idea of Carlton contending for a flag might be fanciful.
However, the Blues have had a purple patch, downing four sides in four weeks who were in the top 8 at the time they played Carlton. And tjey did it by an average margin of 38 points. They’ve won ten from fourteen, sit second on the ladder, and currently have the third best percentage in the competition.
It’s starting to look like the Blues might be the number one challenger to Sydney.
Carlton were soundly beaten by 52 points when rhey met Sydney, but it is worth mentioning that a few key players were missing from Carlton’s best 22, and in particular their back half was depleted. Whilst Sydney would still go in as favourites against Carlton if they were to play now, it would be interesting to see how that game might play out. After the Blues took Geelong apart and won by 63 points, all signs suggest they’d be more competitive.
Patrick Cripps is now back in Brownlow form. Most weeks he has been raking in the possessions including the 41 he had against Geelong. Sam Walsh also had 33 touches in another stellar display while Charlie kicked his biggest bag for the year finishing with five majors. The Swans may still have the edge on the Blues for now, but the gap may have narrowed a little. Expect the Blues to make it five in a row next week against the Tigers.
It’s not often you’ll see a Geelong side be completely dismantled in the manner the Blues did, particularly in the final quarter of the match. The Cats had a small surge late in the third term to get the margin back to a more manageable level just under five goals, but the Blues meant business kicking nine goals in a scintillating display as they showed the rest of the competition that this season is not a one-horse race. Jeremy Cameron finished with three and always looks dangerous. Max Holmes showed a lot of dash. Poor old Tom Hawkins had no impact and ended up hobbling off with what looks like a serious foot complaint. The writing may be on the wall for his career, although a couple weeks rest could just as easily see him return refreshed and invigorated enough to pile on a bag of goals. Let’s just wait and see before it becomes a case of the media making the call a little early.
Geelong have won just one from their past seven matches after winning their first seven games. Next week’s game against the Bombers might show us which of these two teams will play a part in September. I get the feeling there won’t be room for both.
2. Brisbane still in the mix for Top 4.
Many are wondering if Brisbane will play finals this year after their indifferent and, at times, insipid early season form. It’s clear that they’ve finally been able to dust off the cobwebs and are looking like the team who made last year’s Grand Final. If they are able to maintain this level of form, it’s possible that they could win seven of their remaining nine games to finish with fourteen wins and a draw. That could be enough to sneak into the fourth spot on the ladder this season.
Whatever the case, I think finals are all but assured, but sadly their opponents in this game seem destined to miss with their form heading drastically in the other direction.
Port Adelaide started the season strongly and have spent much of this year in the Top 4. They’ve now lost their last three games and being thrashed at home by the Lions is cause for concern. Even with Butters and Rozee getting plenty of the ball, the Power were unable to compete. Georgiades is the only forward who is scoring regularly, with Marshall still down on form. The spotlight is now on the future if Ken Hinkley who will almost certainly be replaced if they don’t play a part in September. A quick look at their next four games will tell you there are winnable matches starting with St Kilda at Marvel Stadium. A loss to the Saints would be the moment we know that Port are done for the year. It may even trigger an early call on Hinkley.
The common theme in Brisbane’s improved form has been the turnaround in form from Hipwood and Daniher. After really struggling to hit the scoreboard over a five to six week period, they’ve now managed to 23 goals between them from Round 12. The Lions are also averaging over 130 points per game during this same period, and they’ve beaten a couple of finals contenders in the Bulldogs and the Power.
None of us really understood why Brisbane had seemingly lost their way up until Round 11. It does appear to have been addressed, although any loss in the last nine games will still leave them vulnerable. While I expect them to beat the Demons next week, a slip-up there would make finals a difficult proposition.
3. The Swans have too many stars
Watching a Sydney game is like watching a Hollywood blockbuster loaded with A-List stars. Possibly their 23rd ranked player from any of the teams they’ve fielded in 2024 would walk into any other club’s senior team. Their defence has Rampe, Blakey, McCartin. In the middle there’s Warner, Gulden, Heeney and Grundy. Up forward there’s Papley, Hayward and even Taylor Adams for good measure. McDonald and Amartey aren’t too shabby, either. There’s a reason they’re three games clear on top of the ladder. There’s simply no weak links. Only injury will stop them.
Against the Giants, it was a familiar tale. Gulden was outstanding with 41 touches. Rowbottom, who is arguably also in the starring category, finished with 32. Isaac Heeney had 23 touches and didn’t score a goal so here’s one of those rare games where he doesn’t poll a vote! Unlike other games in recent times where the Swans started slowly, this time it was a case of an even start with a big second quarter and they lead by over ten goals in the third before the Giants lifted with the final result being a 27 point win to Sydney.
The Giants did well to get back into the game, but they had no answer to that mid-game onslaught which saw Sydney kick ten unanswered goals. They now find themselves still sitting in sixth position on the ladder but only one loss away from slipping out. Tom Green was one of their best finishing with 35 touches. Toby Greene is still struggling to have a major impact on games. Jesse Hogan has only scored five goals from his last four games and is now nine goals behind Curnow after being equal leader at one stage. The Giants are no certainty to make the finals. They go to Adelaide next week to play the Crows. A loss there would be a major blow to their September aspirations.
4. Melbourne aren’t playing like a finals team
I can’t say I have much faith in the Melbourne team right now. Whilst it’s fair and reasonable to suggest their opponents are no longer the laughingstock of the AFL, when you’re 39 points ahead of the bottom team 25 minutes into the third quarter, you should win comfortably. However, the Demons failed to trouble the scorer from that point on while their opponents kicked the last six goals of the match.
In the end, it was a three-point win to Melbourne who now find themselves in 9th position on percentage heading into a tough contest against the in-form Lions at the GABBA. Based on what I’ve seen in recent weeks, it could get ugly. Brisbane are flying whilst Melbourne are barely going.
The absence of Petracca leaves Melbourne vulnerable. Jack Viney is now the number one midfielder, and he was one of best for the Dees with 25 touches. Clayton Oliver only managed 14 touches in yet another poor game by his normal standards in recent years. We’re all waiting for him to have a big game, but as each week passes, one wonders whether his form will continue to warrant selection in the team. Max Gawn seems to be carrying the team solo at various stages, and the chance of winning next week depends greatly on what the big man can do. Personally I think you can put a line through the Demons for this year, but I’ll be the first to apologise if they can turn this around and play finals. With all that in mind, I imagine the odds for the Lions game will see the Dees as rank outsiders.
Imagine if the Kangaroos hung on against the Magpies last week. Now imagine that they scored a goal in that last minute and snatched a win. That would have them on three wins and off the bottom of the ladder. It must be so damn frustrating for the players, the club and its supporters. There’s nothing worse than “honourable losses” when you’re down the wrong of the ladder. Davies-Uniacke was sensational once again finishing with 31 touches and a goal. Sheezel had 27 and two goals. Cam Zuurhar booted four majors in an impressive performance. They’ll be up against the Western Bulldogs next week and I’m sure Bevo’s crew will know not to take this game lightly.
5. The Bombers are on track for finals
It was an important win. Two consecutive losses preceded this game, and a third against the struggling Eagles would have spelt disaster. In a high-scoring affair, Essendon proved to be that little bit more polished than the Eagles. And with Stringer notching five goals, victory was all but assured.
We’ve seen the emergence of Sam Durham this season, and once again he featured among Essendon’s best alongside Zac Merrett with 29 touches each. Caldwell impressed with 26 touches, but it was his tackle count of 11 that won him most praise. Looking at Essendon’s remaining games, it seems likely they will play finals, but remaining in the Top 4 is another story. With a few games left against some of the better teams, if they were to remain there they’d have truly earned it. For now their focus will be on the Cats at the MCG on Saturday night.
West Coast looked good during patches in the game on Sunday. When they got within four points of the Bombers during the third term and upset looked like it was brewing. In the end, the Bombers were too strong when it counted. But scar Allen made a welcome return and could’ve had a big day but finished with 2.4. Waterman scored three goals while Cripps also kicked two.
The Eagles will be hoping to end the season with a few wins, and they have to begin with a tough encounter with the Hawks, who are in top form. If they can reproduce the kind of form we saw on Sunday, and with any home games they have left, a victory or two is a distinct possibility.
6. The Suns lose on the road again
We recognise that travelling to play a game of football may well be a difficult proposition, but in he AFL you must be able to win away against order to play finals. The Suns are a side with loads of talent and a great coach. We’re all losing patience as we watch another year go awry on the back of being winless outside of Queensland and Darwin. Taking on Perth in Fremantle can be difficult, but after kicking the first two goals of the game they barely gave a yelp until the last quarter where they finally realised they were playing a game that was on the line.
Whilst the fightback was admirable, in the end it was a 20 point win to the Dockers, who are also in a battle to make the eight. Flanders and Miller were both solid with 33 touches each. Sam Day top scored, kicking three goals. They’ll need King back to his best next week when they take on the Magpies on the Gold Coast.
Fremantle were a little slow to get going, early. But as the game wore on, the side got going with the likes of Brayshaw and Serong racking up 32 and 29 possessions. Hayden Young is also relishing the midfield role with 24 possessions and three goals.
The Dockers occupy fifth spot on the ladder and could play finals, although they will also need to win on the road. Luckily, that has not been as big an obstacle to Freo as it has been to others. That said, they’ve won on the road against the bottom teams. Their loss to the Bulldogs in Melbourne was their worst of the year. It’s hard to see them beating Sydney at the SCG next week, but then again, it’s hard to see anybody doing that these days. Finals are not assured for the Dockers, but they’re in the mix, and can lock it away if they can strong a few wins together.
7. Dangerous tackles no longer require two actions.
Does anyone remember how the rules surrounding what constitutes a dangerous tackle was based on the so-called “sling” tackle? This tackle was deemed to involve a player being tackled and then slung to the ground in a separate action which could cause the player being tackled to get a head injury in the event of his head hitting the ground. So the idea of eliminating the sling tackle seems to have been accepted by all.
However, there appears to be a new problem as a result of the Dangerfield report.
It was early in the game on Friday night when the incident occurred. It was a strong tackle on Sam Walsh in which he was tackled heavily from behind and the momentum caused him to crash head first into the ground. This was picked up by the MRO, who handed out a one-week suspension to the Geelong skipper. I dare say there will be an appeal as there didn’t seem too much wrong with the technique of the tackle – it even appeared as though Danger tried to hold Walsh up and even attempted to slide a leg under him to bream his fall. The scary thing for me is that if this decision stands, it sets a precedent for similar instances in the future where a legitimate and well-executed tackle could suffer the same fate if a head-knock occurs.
Whilst it’s important to protect a player’s head, contact sports like AFL football will possibly deem anything that results in concussion as reportable. They say if you choose to bump and a head injury results you’re in trouble. I wonder if players become hesitant to tackle. Now that would be a nightmare.
