First Quarter Review
Collingwood and Brisbane
It is fair to say that the biggest shock of the opening six-rounds of the season is the failure of either Collingwood or Brisbane to be in the Top 8. That is not to say things can’t turn around quickly, but both have had average starts to the year, but is there a reason why they find themselves in the mid-table logjam
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I think it was faux pas on behalf of the AFL to have both the Pies and the Lions competing in the newly manufactured Opening Round, or more commonly titled Round Zero. Given both clubs had anywhere from a two-week to a seven-week shorter pre-season than any other club, both clubs could rightfully complain they were punished for making the Grand Final.
2024 saw the earliest start to a season an AFL ever and as such it also meant it was the shortest pre-season on record. A fair argument can be made to say both clubs were handicapped by having to compete in the early March games.
The Top Six – A Unique Symmetry
The is a unique symmetry to the top six positions on the ladder at the end of Round 6.
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Geelong – 6 wins – (2022 Grand Finalist and Premier)
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Sydney Swans – 5 wins – (2022 Grand Finalist)
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Greater Western Sydney – 5 wins – (2023 Preliminary Final loser)
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Carlton – 5 wins – (2023 Preliminary Final loser)
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Port Adelaide – 4 wins – (2023 Semi-Final loser)
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Melbourne – 4 wins- (2023 Semi-Final loser)
It is coincidental, but it does seem the top six teams all have something to prove and have come out their respective boxes ready to make a statement about their intentions for season 2024.
The Anomaly
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Essendon – 4 wins – (7,170 since they last won a Final)
Essendon have been the surprise packet of the opening six rounds and have had a good start to the year despite the barrage of scrutiny and criticism the press has heaped on them. The boys from my local café are typical tragic Essendon supporters and they view football life through pessimistic eyes, so for their sake, and for the sake of the Bomber faithful, it is to be hoped the 2004 curse is finally broken this year.
Business As Usual
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Western Bulldogs – 3 wins – (hanging around the bottom end of the 8 again)
Show the football something Doggies other than one good win followed by another insufferable lose. All bark and no bite, or is it? More later.
Preview of the 2nd Quarter of the Season Rounds 7 to 11
All clubs play 23 games this season so one quarter of the season must be shorter than the rest. I have chosen Round 11 to end the second quarter, as it the last round before the complications of the mid-year byes.
I will rate each team’s performance up to this point and then project the possibilities of the next five games.
Adelaide Crows – 15th with 1 win – Mark ‘E’
There is a saying, misery loves company, and the Crows are the embodiment of that saying. Everything that goes wrong seems to be somebody else’s fault.
Yes, Sammy Draper basically hatched the ball under his belly in the dying seconds on the weekend, and it is so easy to blame the umpires, but in the last three minutes there were four opportunities for the Crows to put the game away. Further, last year Ben Keays did kick a goal that wasn’t, but the question remains as to why the club’s Finals aspirations rested on a single umpiring decision, rather than an inability to win close games in 2023.
Nobody has ever won a Premiership in March of April, but teams can place themselves in such a position as to be irrelevant for the rest of the year. Sadly, Adelaide falls into this category as a club which looks good on paper but fails for one reason or another to perform on the field. Further, Josh Rachele and Izac Rankine may need a run in the Magoo’s to remind them they play in a team and not as individuals.
Next Five Rounds – Not an Easy Draw
North Melbourne (a), Port Adelaide (h), Brisbane Lions (h), Collingwood (a) and West Coast (h).
If, and it is a big if, if the Crows can manage to win four of the above games, then their season maybe redeemable, but based on current form it is A Bridge too Far. There must come a point where the Crows start to play some kids in preparation for season 2025.
Brisbane Lions – 12th 2 wins (a healthy percentage) – Mark ‘C-’
For reason as stated in the introduction, I am being generous to the Lions, but their season must start from this point on. They would not want to be any worse that six wins and five losses at the halfway mark.
Next Five Rounds
Greater Western Sydney (a), Gold Coast Suns (h), Adelaide (a), Richmond (h) and Hawthorn (a).
Given the suspensions of Toby Green and Jesse Hogan, the GWS are gettable this week, while it would be expected that Lions would win the other four games. If the Lions can get to seven wins and four losses by the turn, then they can make a solid charge at the Finals again.
Carlton Blues – 4th 5 wins – Mark ‘A’
Not since the days of fortress Princess Park (it was a terrifying place to go as an opposition supporter), Pigs-Arse Elliott, and the mythical brown paper-bags has there been this much hype about the Baggers. Don’t get me wrong, for once the hype is deserved as this this team under Michael Voss is ticking all the right boxes.
We will learn more about the Blues next Saturday afternoon when the battle the unbeaten Cats at the MCG. We will learn a lot about both teams, actually.
My only concern for the Blues is whether they are already playing at their premium level. History proves that Premiership teams build into the season leaving something in reserve for the latter part of the season.
Having said that, and from what I have seen this year, the improvement in the Blues game this year has come from the lesser ranked players at the club, and with no disrespect, the form of players such as Matthew Cottrell, Corey Durdin, Tom De Koning, Oliver Hollands and others seems to be on an upward trajectory. The Blues are working very hard on getting the players a step under the ‘A’ graders knowing their roles and position within the team.
Next Five Rounds
Geelong (a – MCG), Collingwood (h), Melbourne (h), Sydney Swans (a) and Gold Coast Suns (h).
It is as tough a draw as any club could have, but given their current form, if they win three or four out that run of games then they are set for the season. Judging by the barrage of emails, texts, and other messages I get from my friends who are Blues fans, they believe they are ready.
Collingwood Magpies – 10th 3 wins – Mark ‘B-’
As stated at the beginning, I am giving the Pies and the Lions the benefit of doubt given their shortened preseason campaigns. Last weekend’s win against the Power was as strong a win as I have seen by any team this year and it must have sent out warning bells to the all the clubs above them that they are ready to have a real tilt at going ‘back-to-back’.
The Pies were gettable in the early rounds, but three straight wins has them back to being level with the competition.
Write the Pies off at your own peril as they are coming, and coming hard.
Next Five Rounds
Essendon (a – MCG), Carlton (a – MCG), West Coast Eagles (h – Marvel), Adelaide (h) and Fremantle (a).
It is plausible the Pies can win four out their next five games, if not all five. 8-3 or 7-4 would place the Pies in a good position to launch their Premiership campaign.
Essendon Bombers and the Edge – 7th 4 wins – Mark ‘A’
Many in the media forget that Brad Scott in his last coaching stint took an average to okay North Melbourne team to consecutive finals campaigns in the early 2010’s, including a Preliminary Final. He is a very good coach, and at his short time at The Hangar, he is slowly taking a team which has potential to installing a belief that the players and the club can realise that potential.
‘The Edge’ philosophy will take time, but there are signs of the players individually and the team as a whole responding to the expectations of Brad Scott game plan. The youngsters such as Harrison Jones, Nick Martin, Nik Cox, Archie Perkins, Alwyn Davey jnr, Ben Hobbs and other are now, or finally, attacking each contest with an intensity they haven’t displayed prior to this year. Further, the recruitment of the aging Goldstein, McKay and Duursma have all contributed to a distinctly different Bomber outfit this year.
Hopefully, this year the Bombers can finally get the first monkey of their back and win a final. If they do that, in the years to come they may well be a power-team again.
Next Five Rounds
Collingwood (h), West Coast Eagles (a), Greater Western Sydney (h), North Melbourne (h) and Richmond (a).
Apart from the traditional ANZAC Day clash, the Bombers have a relatively soft draw before the turn, and it would be disappointed if they didn’t win at least three or four out those five games. To their supporters, don’t get too down if they drop a game or two. Most clubs as they rise-up the ladder go three steps forward and two steps backwards until the club gets games into the younger players.
If you want a positive, I think the Bombers are two years behind where Carlton is now.
Fremantle Dockers – 9th 3 wins – Mark ‘C-’
Every time I dare to believe the Purple Haze are coming and coming hard, they seem to inevitably hit a brick wall. Three-straight wins to start the season followed by three straight losses. The Carlton and Port Adelaide defeats were honourable, but Freo lost, and lost badly to the West Coast Eagles (no offence to the Weagles). The AFL should be sending them a ‘please explain’.
Next week the Dockers play the Doggies in a game which will prove which team is the more mediocre.
Next Five Rounds
Western Bulldogs (h), Richmond (a), Sydney Swans (h), St Kilda (a) and finally Collingwood (h).
No doubt, by the end of Round 11 the Dockers will be 5/6 or 6/5, providing just enough emphasis to keep their supporters interested while slowly driving a dagger through their purple hearts. This club has promised a lot for a long time, and it is time they delivered.
Geelong Cats – 1st 6 wins – Mark ‘A+’
There have been mumblings that the Cats have had a soft draw to start the year, but they still won their first five games without blemish and then franked that form by beating the Lions in terrible conditions at the Gabbatoir. For a club which well and truly underperformed last season, they have made a significant statement already this season.
To concentrate on the age of their stars is to underestimate the rebuild happening from the bottom and the potential of the kids coming through. Unlike some clubs at the bottom of the ladder, nobody gets a game at the Cattery until they are ready and proven themselves, and once a player is selected the ethos of the club dictates they perform. Such is the culture; nobody gets a free-ride at Geelong.
I am only making bold prediction this early in the season, unless the Cats suffer an extraordinary run of injuries or form loss, the Cats will make the Top 4 this year. With 17 games to go and 6 wins under the belt, they have set themselves perfectly for the rest of the season.
Next Five Rounds
Carlton (h – MCG), Melbourne (a), Port Adelaide (h), Gold Coast Suns (a) and Greater Western Sydney (h).
It is inevitable that the Cats will drop a game or two somewhere along the way, however, they have placed themselves in a position whereby a periodic form slump will not hurt their year. I expect the Cats to be 10/1 or 9/2 at the turn, but even if they were 8/3, it is still a great start to the year.
Gold Coast Suns – 11th 3 wins – Mark ‘B-’
It would fair to ask why I am marking the Suns higher than other teams on three wins? I will justify it by stating they have fielded a very young team all year, they are coming to grips with a new coach, and they have not lost a game at home. Three wins is a good start.
Dimma stated at the start of the year he had 80 percent of the pieces in place for this club to go somewhere, which means there is still 20 percent missing. Some of that 20 percent was on display when the Suns crushed the Hawks a couple of weeks ago as they played a full four-quarter ruthless brand of game. It was the first time I had seen the Suns play pressure football from start to finish and destroy another team. The flip side of having such young talent is they will get beaten by the stronger, more professional clubs more often than not.
Next Five Rounds
West Coast Eagles (h), Brisbane (a), North Melbourne (h), Geelong (h) and Carlton (a).
It would be expected the Suns will win two of the above games, the test is whether they can snatch another victory or two over the power teams.
Great Western Sydney – 3rd 5 wins – Mark ‘A-’
Toby Greene’s and Jesse Hogan’s one-week suspensions arising from the Giants’ only loss this season to the Blues last weekend demonstrates the fragility of all clubs vying for the Flag. A silly error here or there at the wrong time of the season can diminish the possibility of ultimate glory for any club. Green and Hogan are lucky it is round 6 and not a Final. Of course, we learnt just before publication that Jesse Hogan is free to play, but the point stands.
The Giants’ start to the season has been impeccable, even allowing for the Carlton loss. At the start of the year, they would have taken a 5/1 start, and like most clubs in that position, they now have a solid base to tackle the rest of the season.
Next Five Rounds
Brisbane Lions (h), Sydney Swans (a), Essendon (a), Western Bulldogs (h) and Geelong (a).
Come Round 11, the football world will know a lot more about the Giants and their Premiership credentials after this daunting run of games.
Hawthorn Hawks – 17th 1 win – Mark ‘E+’
Sam Mitchell obviously knows what his long-term plan is for the Hawks, but from the outside it is very hard to decipher. A good quarter against the Pies and belting up on the hapless Roos is not exactly a form line to get excited about.
Late last year I reviewed quite a few Hawthorn games, and I could see the gradual improvement in the Hawks, even in defeat, but this year I am perplexed as to what their game plan is. I hope the months leading into winter see a marked improvement from a team, many like myself, had as the big improver in 2024.
Next Five Rounds
Sydney Swans (h – MCG), Bulldogs (a), St Kilda (h), Port Adelaide (a) and Brisbane Lions (h).
That is an extremely tough draw for a team sitting second-bottom. The powers that be at Hawthorn will be hoping they don’t drop all five as the pressure will be turned up on all at the club.
Melbourne Demons – 6th 4 wins – Mark ‘B+’
Melbourne, like Port Adelaide, stand on the precipice as to whether they go up or slowly slide down the ladder. Every year a team or two which has had a period of dominance gradually slides out of contention.
Is it Melbourne’s turn to be that team?
On exposed form, the Demons will be thereabouts again this year, but a lot depends on getting the balance right in their forward line and offering something different occasionally in the midfield. Gawn, Petracca, Oliver and Viney are as good a midfield outfit as the AFL has seen, but it is becoming predictable to the other top clubs who are finding ways to work around them.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Pickett, Billings, the talented McVee and Windsor, Rivers and Salem are not given more time in the centre just to mix things up a bit, as well McDonald or van Rooyan given more time in the ruck with Gawn playing more forward. The talent list at the Dees runs deep, and it is time for some of the secondary contributors to play a more primary role.
Melbourne was my early tip for the flag, so no, I don’t think they are going out the backdoor, but their structure needs to be less predictable.
Next Five Rounds
Richmond (a), Geelong (h), Carlton (a), West Coast Eagles (a) and St Kilda (h).
On paper this is a pretty reasonable draw, and it would expected the Dees are still sitting nicely in the upper echelons come Round 11.
North Melbourne Kangaroos – 18th 0 wins – Mark ‘F’
Losing to Hawthorn without raising a whimper in the battle for the Wooden Spoon is probably one of the most significant defeats North have had over the last couple years. As a club they have gone backwards this year, which is a very hard achievement given the last couple of seasons, and they are not displaying the most important commodity a struggling team can give, which is HOPE.
Personally, I hate failing a team, but the Kangaroos are failing themselves and their loyal band of supporters every time they run out on the field.
Two questions arise about North Melbourne this year:
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How much time does Clarkson give the players struggling to make the grade to improve?
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How much time does the club give Clarkson to turn things around?
Enough said.
Next Five Rounds
Adelaide Crows (h), St Kilda (a), Gold Coast Suns (a), Essendon (a) and Port Adelaide (h).
Give your supporters something and just win a game against the odds.
Port Adelaide Power – 5th 4 wins – Mark ‘B+’
On paper, the Power have a favourable draw for the next five rounds, but there are two ‘wildcard’ games against the inconsistent Saints followed by a Showdown game against the Crows. The Power will start favourite to win both of these games, but these are the kind of games the Power has a habit of dropping.
2024 – Last Chance Saloon
Like I stated about the Demons, the boys from Alberton are on the precipice of either achieving ultimate glory or sliding down the ladder. This list of Power players circa 2024 is standing at the door of the Last Chance Saloon.
The Power have been around the mark for quite a few years now and it is now or never!
Next Five Rounds
St Kilda (h), Adelaide Crows (technically a), Geelong (a), Hawthorn (h) and North Melbourne (a).
It’s time to play your hand, Power.
Richmond Tigers – 16th 1 win – Mark ‘C-’
One win doesn’t really warrant a ‘C-’, however, that win was against an in-form Swans outfit and it was one of the few occasions all year the Tigers had a near full list of players to choose from, so the win does have elevated merit.
The injury depleted Tigers are now in full rebuild mode under new Coach Adam Yze and there is going to be some pain as the club restructures. All dynasties have an end date and for the Tigers that end date was probably midway through last season. Yze has his work cut out as he puts games into the kid while keeping the enthusiasm of senior listed players who have dined out on success over the last 7 years.
Next Five Rounds
Melbourne (h), Fremantle (h), Western Bulldogs (h), Brisbane Lions (a) and Essendon (h).
It is a good run of home games for the Tiges and they may well take one or two scalps of their more fancied opponents during this period.
St Kilda Saints – 13th 2 wins – Mark ‘D+’
Unless a miracle happens, Ross Lyon’s success with second year teams will be tarnished this year.
Good St Kilda are very good, with wins over the Pies and the Tigers, average St Kilda fail to win ugly in close finishes, while bad St Kilda can be thumped by ten-goals by a team around the same mark as the Bulldogs.
The Saints ‘should have’ won at least four games, but therein is the historical problem with St Kilda – they are a team suffering from the ‘should have, could have’ syndrome. I rate the Saints alongside the Crows and the Dockers as the three most disappointing clubs over the last five years, other clubs who suffer from the same syndrome.
Having said all the above, I don’t believe the season is over yet for the Saints and they can rebound, but that rebound would need to start immediately.
Next Five Rounds
Port Adelaide (a), North Melbourne (h), Hawthorn (a), Fremantle (h) and Melbourne (a).
It the Saints rebound is to happen then they would need to win four out of the next five games.
I will try and clear it with HB, but I want to review the Round 10 clash with Fremantle as both clubs can be as fickle as each other.
Sydney Swans – 2nd 5 wins – Mark ‘B+’
Five wins, second on the ladder, a healthy percentage, yet the lowest grading out of all the teams in the Top Four – why?
Richmond exposed an inherant weakness in the Swans a few weeks back which has nothing to do with game style, ability, or skill level.
The talented Swans list is yet to play a full four quarters of football in any match this year. The young Tigers sustained pressure for four quarters and stole a break on the Swans, and in the end the Swans couldn’t snatch an ugly win. Even when the Swans pounded the Suns last weekend, they gave the Suns a sniff in the second quarter, just the young gun Suns weren’t good enough to exploit the situation.
I can date the Swans inability to play four quarters of sustained football back to the last game of season 2022 against the Saints when they came from the clouds and nearly stole victory and the 2022 Preliminary Final against Collingwood which was as good as done midway through the third quarter.
The upside for the Swans is, they keep winning games even with a glaring fault, and the problem is fixable. Further, the recruitment of Grundy and Adams, along with Heeney going to the centre, has added a different dimension to a once predictable mid-field structure of the Bloods, while the return of Parker and Mills in the coming weeks will add a steel-edged toughness to the Swans which can only hold them in good position come the finals.
The Swans are one the few teams who could potentially improve significantly as the season goes on.
Next Five Rounds
Hawthorn (a), Battle of the Bridge GWS (h), Fremantle (a), Carlton (h) and Western Bulldogs (a).
Internally the club would be expecting the team to win at least four of those five games, as do the supporters.
West Coast Eagles – 14th 2 wins – Mark ‘B’
This club was expected by many to go winless this year, but after an honourable defeat at the hands of the Sydney Swans they have convincingly beaten the Tigers and the Dockers in consecutive weeks.
Like a Phoenix rising from the ashes, the bounce is back in the boys from the West and the old heads who have tasted Premiership glory, including Yeo, Waterman, Barrass, McGovern and Darling are playing a solid brand of football and taking the kids along with them, while Kelly seems to have his hard edge back.
Oh yeah, how could I forget, there is a kid who wears number nine who I would offering a ten-year deal straight away. He is the future of the club. Harley Reid is not just all class, but he is tough, has great peripheral vision and just has a natural sense for the flow and rhythm of the game.
It should be noted that the Eagles have achieved so much already this year without their Co-Captain, the forgotten footballer of 2024, Oscar Allen.
There is a massive upside for the Eagles, especially as a lot of the raw talent which for two years have copped flogging after flogging now seem to be relishing the chance to play at club which again has purpose and relevance.
Somebody asked me last year which club is closer to a Premiership, the Eagles or the Dockers, and without hesitation I said the Eagles, based purely based on the success pedigree of the club.
Next Five Rounds
Gold Coast Suns (a), Essendon (h), Collingwood (a), Melbourne (h) and Adelaide Crows (a).
Everything to gain, and nothing to lose.
Western Bulldogs – 8th 3 wins – Mark ‘C’
Unlike most AFL pundits, I like what Bevo is doing with the Dogs this year. There has been a lot of criticism flowing Bevo’s way and I suspect the likes of Wilson, King and Cornes won’t be happy until they see the back of him, but flying in the face of popular opinion I believe Bevo is changing his game plan and match day tactics as the old relied upon formula was only achieving mediocrity.
I liken what Bevo is doing in 2024 to what Malthouse with Collingwood in 2010. Midway through the year nobody would have believed players like O’Bree, Fraser, and others would not be part of a successful Premiership, but Malthouse, under criticism, stuck fat and won the Pies a flag with a few no-name players at that point of time.
Caleb Daniel won’t be the only casualty of Bevo’s change in style and tactics, and maybe a culling is necessary for the club is to finally step fully into the top echelons of the competition.
Bevo, shows us what ya got. I’m not quite a true believer just yet, but I appreciate what you are attempting.
Next Five Rounds
Fremantle (a), Hawthorn (h), Richmond (a), Greater Western Sydney Giants (a) and the Sydney Swans (h).
It is a fascinating run of games for the Doggies but come Round 11 the win ledger should be higher than the loss ledger.
