The Prophet’s Perceptions
Welcome to the MCG this Saturday afternoon, as the struggling Hawks look to combat a Melbourne side with a chip on its shoulder. With the sun shining, and stars aplenty on the field of combat, and maybe a few hotdogs ready for consumption, here’s the Prophet’s Perceptions on this contest.
Midfield Dominance
On paper, it was to be expected that the Melbourne midfield would dominate the Hawks – who would try. However, the 14-5 centre clearances was brutal, and gave the Demons forwards great opportunities to find front position. This was most evident with a Christian Petracca centre clearance in the final term, with no opponents near him, he waltzed out of the stoppage and hit a teammate lace out inside fifty.
The Hawks mids tried all day, but you could see how the Melbourne midfield were a level or two above. They found their way through stoppage with ease, and made the most of this dominance. At one stage in the last quarter they had seven goals from stoppage, and the Hawks had mustered a couple of behinds from the same source.
Hawthorn can grow and learn from playing midfield groups like the Demons – they will have an easier week against another young midfield in Geelong next week – while the Dees continue to flex their considerable muscle and skill in this area. They have few deficiencies in the midfield, and so your pressure needs to be on, and you need to guard space and not allow easy ball movement out of stoppages to at least force some hurried disposal. And then there’s guarding their outside runners. The Dees are building nicely into 2024.
Forward Finesse
How does Melbourne structure up forward of the ball? This is one of the ever-present question when discussing the 2021 Premiers. There is wonder about where their goals will come from. With the presence of Ben Brown and Harrison Petty – they don’t need to kick big bags – opposition sides are forced to man them up, and have less ability to zone off, allowing the small and medium-sized forwards to run amok.
Today, the likes of Kysaiah Pickett (13 disposals, three goals), Bayley Fritsch (13 disposals, five goals), and Kade Chandler (11 disposals, two goals) did considerable damage in front of goal – especially early. In an opening quarter blitz, the Dees kicked five goals to zero, with Pickett in particular dynamic, and involved in most forward surges for his team.
While the big forwards may not be dominant on the scoreboard, they straighten up the Dees ball movement, crash packs and bring the ball to the ground, and limit the ability of the opposition interceptors to zone off and cut off the footy. This makes the Demons a much more challenging proposition and forces their opponents to really focus on limiting the volume of their forward 50 entries and the clean disposal going forward. Teams will struggle to limit all of the forwards, so they need to go to work up the ground and make sure that they are pressuring the ball carrier and impeding the clean disposal.
They Bored Them to Death
Melbourne strangled the Hawks – particularly early. Looking at the marks and disposals, you’d think the Hawks were running rampant. However, the Dees took away the down-the-line kick, forcing the Hawks to perpetually switch play, but they were so slow with their kick-mark play, that inevitably, they became bored, kicked long, and either a stoppage or a turnover ensued.
Towards the end of the second quarter, Hawthorn began to get some better looks forward of the centre, thanks to their willingness to run, carry, and use handball to pick their way through the Melbourne structure.
While some of this may have been by design for the Hawks, the Demons were able to squeeze them and force turnovers in the attacking midfield area for the Hawks, and then slingshot forward. The Hawks put more speed on their ball movement in the second half, making the match more of a shoot-out. Unfortunately, they lacked the polish to capitalise on field position. The Hawks finished with just five goals from 42 entries, while the Dees were able to put through 14 majors from 55 entries, emphasising their superior finishing but also getting better looks at goal.
Siesta Second
After a night of Tacos & Tequila, it’s easy for one to fall into a siesta. On a sunny arvo in Melbourne, even with cheeseboards and mid-strength trash (Great Northern), it’s not so easy. However, both these teams did their utmost to send everyone into a stupor during the second quarter.
The skills on display deteriorated, targets were repeatedly missed, and very little scoring occurred. Was it increased pressure? Perhaps from the Hawks. Was it because one team was on a high level and the other not? Perhaps the Dees lacked some urgency. What is interesting though, is that in most of the games The Prophet has viewed thus far in 2024, strange things have been afoot after the first break, with second quarters being decidedly less interesting and prolific. There could be something in that!
Finally, with the Hawks getting a few late shots at goal, it was new recruit Mabior Chol who had some fine moments that resulted in a goal assist, and a score involvement. It’s a shame that the Hawks conversion was inconsistent, at best.
Wayward Wizard
It’s rare for a young player to come in with a well-established nickname. However, Nick Watson is not conventional. The issue for The Wizard is that he obviously doesn’t know any accuracy spells as his first three shots today (to go with his three last week) were all behinds. Finally, he did register a major today.
He is an energizer bunny up forward and the way he works in tandem with Jack Ginnivan is something Hawks fans can get excited about for a decade, and that opposition fans will stress about. It will be fun to watch.
Finally for Jack
The Prophet has heard the voices and seen online comments about conspiracy theories regarding Jack Ginnivan. Something about being umpired differently. I haven’t paid much attention to it, and didn’t think it was hugely a real thing. You know the saying – “if you play with fire, you’re going to get burned” and so, Jack dropping has knees or shoulder was always going to have consequences. However, today, I’m happy to don a tin foil hat.
On numerous occasions today, Ginnivan was unfairly prevented from getting to the ball, was taken high, and even was pushed out of contests. The umpires eventually gave him one, albeit him nearly being completely decapitated by Steven May. Hopefully, now that he seems to have moved past his knee-dropping and playing up contact, umpires can appreciate the fact he gets into good positions and should be rewarded as much as anyone else.
Defensive Frailty
It is rare for the Melbourne Football Club to have neither of Jake Lever or Steven May on the field at any given time. For the second half today, that was the reality. May copped an errant knee from Mabior Chol to the ribcage and was rushed to hospital, while Lever intimated post-match he might miss a week or two with a knee cap issue. It was interesting watch to see how the Demons adjusted. Harrison Petty was swung into defense, allowing Jacob van Rooyen to spend more time up forward, and giving the forward line a little less predictability.
However, the Hawks were able to get some better looks and found more space going forward with the absence of the two defensive generals. This is a big watch for Melbourne as they head to Adelaide next week to face Port and their towers in Todd Marshall and Charlie Dixon.
What Did We Learn?
Dees – aside from some slick movement out of stoppages, and sharing the scoring load, not a great deal. We know that the Dees can score quickly, are brutal around stoppages, and generate a lot of scores from stoppages; we saw that today. Next week will tell us more.
Hawks – the pieces are mostly there for the Hawks to continue building with. The growth areas are around consistent effort, decision-making, and their finishing forward of centre. The more that this team plays together, the more that the synergy and consistency will grow.
Other Bits
Mabior Chol has been maligned with his stints at his first two clubs. Today, while he wasn’t dominant by any means, he had some moments where he could use his agility, and hit targets going forward. He won’t ever be the greatest key forward/second ruckman, but he offers enough to this young Hawks outfit.
He didn’t feature much for the Saints last year, but Jack Billings has settled very nicely into life as a Melbourne player. He has always covered the ground well, and is finding space and able to use his foot skills to benefit his team. He is looking revitalised and adds another string to the Demons bow.
Luke Breust is one of the best small forwards in the last 30-odd years. However, today he somewhat did a 2024 Scott Pendlebury. He panicked, made poor decisions, and didn’t execute well. No doubt he can offer much to the young forwards on the Hawks list, but he is going to need to carry his weight if he’s going to stay in the side.
Caleb Windsor was a top-ten pick for a reason. He covers the ground well, spreads well, and makes good decisions. His foot skills could use a little work, but he’s far from the worst in the competition in that regard. To slot into this Dees side immediately, shows exactly the quality of individual he is.
Cam MacKenzie intercept on Gawn leading to a great finish from Mitch Lewis in the final term was one of the great individual plays in the game. Max will be disappointed in his effort, but take nothing away from Sam Mitchell’s doppelganger as he fought to the end and then setup a rare goal for his side.
Speaking of individual efforts, Christian Petracca did everything today, even sprinting back into defense to spoil a certain Hawk mark in their offensive goal square, forcing a rushed behind. And didn’t he celebrate it. Jake Lever even mentioned post-game it may be the first time Trac has ever put in a spoil – I’m sure it was in jest. When Trac is working hard in defense – like he does in attack – you know his and Melbourne’s game is in good stead.
It was a comfortable win for Melbourne today. They now look ahead to next Saturday night at Adelaide Oval in an epic encounter with the Power, while the Hawks cast their eyes to Easter Monday as they renew the greatest modern rivalry against the undefeated Cats.
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