1. Don’t write Lachie Neale off for the Brownlow
It seems all the talk this year for Brownlow betting has been focused on Nick Daicos and, more recently, Zak Butters. Meanwhile, Lachie Neale for the Lions has been quietly doing what he does notching up 30+ possessions in most games and flying under the radar despite already having one Charlie to his name. This week was no exception as he collected 34 touches and booted two goals alongside teammate, Hugh McCluggage who also had the ball on 34 occasions.
Brisbane’s midfield tore the Tiger on-ballers apart more than doubling the clearance count. It was a clinical display and was the reason why the margin was an embarrassing 81 points by the end of the game. Joe Daniher took full advantage of the regular forward entries finishing with five goals and ten marks. It’s all starting to come together nicely for the Lions who look all but certain of finishing with a double chance on current form. Next week they host the struggling Eagles at the GABBA.
If the Swans were able to crack the 200-mark against them last week, is the highest-ever score of 239 under threat?Maybe not, after the Eagles showed a lot of heart against the Saints, but you never know.
It was a dirty night for the Tigers who really need to keep winning to keep their finals chances alive. I’m sure that would be the most disappointing aspect for interim coach, Andrew McQualter. He’s done a fair job since taking over from Hardwick, but this will be one to forget. Everything was stacked against the Tigers coming into this game with what is proving to be the toughest road trip in 2023, as well as the loss of Prestia to injury and Martin to illness. Even with Hopper and Taranto in good form, the hole left by these two giants was just too great. And now it would seem they’ll be without another very important player in Jayden Short for 2-3 weeks with a hamstring strain. Their finals aspirations are seemingly in tatters, but I’ve learnt my lesson from recent history and won’t write them off, although there are an awful lot of things that need to go right from here on end for the Tigers and these injuries certainly aren’t a part of that.
It’s also worth mentioning that this is another sub-par performance by a team coming off a bye. The Lions were firm favourites to win, but not too many would’ve predicted the annihilation we witnessed. Interestingly the Tigers play the Swans next Thursday in what both clubs will see as an elimination final. They’re both on 26 premiership points and the Tigers will be hoping to bounce back and avoid having their season put out of its misery once and for all.
2. Swans had the yips and it cost them the win
Sydney had a huge second quarter in every statistical department except on the scoreboard. Their dominance in that quarter should have had them with a comfortable 4-5 goal lead at halftime, and while they held the Cats to just 1.1 for the term, they missed some frighteningly easy shots to finish with 3.6 and just a narrow eight-point lead. It didn’t get much better after half time as they only managed 2.6 for the half.
Robbie Fox will be haunted by his miss from ten metres out on a slight angle with two minutes remaining. A goal would’ve given the Swans the lead, but instead, they trailed by one point. It almost looked like the Cats were going to hold on, but a desperate Swans kept the ball down their end and Heaney’s kick from a pack scored another behind to tie up the scores for the resulting draw. The Swans will be ruing their scoreline of 6.18, bearing in mind that their problems in front of goal did rub off onto their opponents who scored 3.8 after half time themselves to finish with 7.12 and also thinking about opportunities they had to ice the game in the final term.
The Cats are still in touch with the eight for now, and Sydney will have to beat the Tigers next week to remain in the chase. Braeden Campbell continued to impress kicking two goals. Nick Blakey had 29 touches and was busy despite copping a few hard knocks throughout this epic battle.
Geelong and Carlton veteran Zach Tuohy matched the games record for an Irishman previously held by the late and great Jim Stynes. He was also one of Geelong’s best with 28 touches. He’s been a durable player and still playing great footy at 33 years of age. He’ll go on to break the record next week against the Kangaroos down in Geelong, and I daresay that record will take some beating. The Cats should win that game and start their charge for a finals place. It’s by no means a done deal, but with a few home games remaining, it’s slightly leaning their way despite a few tough sides in their draw. Another very impressive player for the Cats in recent weeks is Gryan Miers. He’s been in career-best form in recent weeks, and Friday night was no exception. He had 28 touches and kicked a goal, but it was his pinpoint passing with that unique style of his own that impressed the most. He did his best to will his team across the line but will have to settle for a draw which certainly makes the middle of the ladder a little more interesting now with 4 teams with a draw still in finals calculations.
3. Izak Rankine was definitely worth the big price tag
After three seasons with the Suns, the Adelaide Crows lured the rising star back to his home state for a reported $850,000 a year which many thought was excessive due to Izak still being in the development phase of his career. After playing 48 games with Gold Coast, he’s now played 15 games with the Crows and has scored 30 goals for the season, including five against the Kangaroos on Saturday, the biggest haul of his career to date. But it’s been his consistency this year which has impressed the most, and there is no doubting the spark he has added to that Adelaide attack. He does the flashy things, but he also does the team thing and already plays with maturity and poise.
Sometimes, when a club is keen on getting a player on board, you have to throw out big money to make it happen. The powers that be at the Adelaide Football Club will be happy with this decision, and it could even be one of the reasons they make it to September this year, although a lot still has to play out for that to be a reality. And with Taylor Walker kicking goals and leading the Coleman race, it would be a brave man not to offer him another year too.
The game against the Kangaroos on Saturday went more or less as expected with a comfortable win to the Crows at home. Next week the Crows are back in Melbourne to take on the desperate Bombers. The Crows simply have to start winning away from home to stay in the finals race. They almost did it against the Pies. Can they do it next week?
Speaking of young stars, North Melbourne certainly got a beauty in Harry Sheezel. We’re now 16 rounds into the season and, after a flying start, Harry has shown no signs of fatigue and is still racking up 30+ touches on a regular basis. There’ll be no shortage of clubs quietly observing his deeds, and no doubt they’ll be circling if the Kangaroos don’t start their move up the ladder next year. Nick Larkey has also had his best year, and his long-term signing was a great show of loyalty for the embattled club. The Kangaroos are not quite the basketcase that the Eagles are, but after winning their opening two games of the season, they’ve now lost 13 in a row and it will almost definitely be 14 after next week’s game against the Cats at GMHBA. Caretaker coach Brett Ratten should’ve seen a couple of wins in games that really should’ve gone their way in some pretty freakish circumstances that suggest the footy gods are working against them.
4. The Bulldogs were the first to buck the trend of losing after a bye
Other than the Saints and Magpies who won after a bye but were playing against teams also coming off a bye, the Bulldogs were the first out of 12 to record a win. A lot has been said about the effect this mid-season break may have had on teams, but for the most part, there weren’t that many results that were total shocks, although it still warrants a discussion when putting the fixture out for next season. The Bulldogs’ win wasn’t without a fight, though. A Sean Darcy goal seven minutes into the final term put the Dockers ahead, and many of us looking on were starting to wonder if yet another loss after a bye was on the cards, but from that point on it was all the Bulldogs kicking seven goals in a blistering final quarter that now sees them a chance for that Top 4 spot.
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan was very busy kicking four goals and taking big marks throughout the night. Bontempelli had another strong game as did Tom Liberatore. If the Bulldogs want to have any chance of making the Top 4, they’ll have to find a way to beat Collingwood next Friday at Marvel Stadium. I daresay getting a ticket to that game might rival trying to get tickets to see Taylor Swift. Hopefully, there won’t be as big a meltdown…
Fremantle have shown some glimpses this year, but it is starting to look like one of those mediocre nothing seasons where you win ten or eleven games and finish a few spots outside the eight. When the Bulldogs got going in that final term, they just couldn’t go with them and had no answers. The crazy thing is they had the ball 89 more times than the Bulldogs, but clearly, they were nowhere near as efficient which seems to be the major difference between the better teams and the middle-tier teams.
Caleb Serong had another busy day collecting 38 disposals, and Liam Henry continued his recent good form with 33. I’m quietly observing Nat Fyfe who was subbed out again during this match when his foot injury flared up yet again. He’s really struggling and clearly isn’t right. We love the guy, but at 31 years of age, and with an ailing body, it might pay for Fyfe to get himself 100% right for maybe one final tilt next year. I imagine Fyfe won’t be there next Sunday as they take on the Blues who are still a mathematical chance of playing finals. Both sides look destined to miss out at this stage, but a loss for either would be the nail in the coffin one feels.
5. The Suns suffer a coach-killing loss
Gold Coast are yet to make finals in all of the 13 seasons they’ve played in the AFL. They haven’t even managed to ever have a positive win-loss ratio, with ten wins being their best-ever return. In two of their last three starts, they’ve been soundly beaten, once by a side currently sitting in 15th position on the ladder. Whilst Collingwood are on top of the ladder and playing some exceptional football, it will still be concerning to see them score 14 of the first 15 goals of the match, and this despite the game being played on the Gold Coast in conditions that no doubt suited the home team, although you wouldn’t have thought that to be the case the way the Magpies brilliantly handled the ball.
Losses like this and the one to Carlton would put a little pressure on the coach. He’s now in his sixth season at the club and boasts just a 30% win rate. There has been some improvement in the last two years, but how long do you persist with a guy who looks like falling short again this year? It’s not just the losses though. It’s the manner in which the two recent games in question saw pressure applied with no response. Even if you’re not a fan of the Suns, most of us want to see them make it into a finals campaign at some point, and it still looks a little way off at this stage. I don’t think they’ll have any joy against the Power at Adelaide Oval this Saturday night either.
The Pies were ruthless. You could see very early on that they were going to flex their muscle and show no mercy. They would’ve seen this as a danger game during the week, but as their coach Craig McRae has demonstrated time and time again, he came in with a plan, and boy did they execute it. From an observer’s point of view, I don’t believe there is as player on that team who doesn’t know what his role is, nor do I think are there many who don’t fulfil that role. I watch a lot of their games in awe of their ball movement and work rate. It’s very rare to see a Collingwood player in trouble without help being close by. This game may also see Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos tighten in the odds some more. It’s hard to go past 36 touches, a goal, and a staggering ten tackles for best-on-ground honours. He may not have it as easy next week against the Bulldogs alongside Libba and Co. But all in all, he’s having one hell of a year and doesn’t look like dropping off any time soon.
6. Dan Houston is a superstar
Dan Houston is having a huge year, and is proving to be one of the Power’s most important players. He’s now 26 years of age and 111 games into his career. He has spent most of his time playing in defence and to date has managed to score just 23 goals, but none so important as the 55m drop punt goal after the siren to get his team across the line on Saturday night against a heartbroken Bombers. When he took the mark on the 50m line with just 17 seconds on the clock, he made his intentions clear.
With wet conditions, many looking on would have thought it may be beyond him. I’ve seen the way he kicks and how much penetration he has by foot. I gave him a sneaky chance. He has a very powerful right foot, and if you weren’t aware of it, you most certainly are now. But what I loved was his resolve. He had the ball in his hand and wanted the responsibility of firing for goal. You could see he had his mind completely committed to the task and it’s no surprise to me that he succeeded, albeit by a metre or less. That now takes Port Adelaide’s record winning streak to 12 in a row and it should get extended to 13 after they play the Suns at home next week. Even before that kick Dan probably had claims to best on ground honours, finishing with 32 touches for the match, but that kick sealed the deal.
That would’ve been hard to watch if you’re a Bombers fan. There was so much on the line. A win would’ve cemented them in the Top 8. As Houston lined up to kick from 55, most of the Bombers faithful would’ve been thinking that surely it was out of reach in those conditions. Surely he could kick it right or left. It had to be a perfect strike, and it was. Now the Bombers have to bounce back from that heartache and face Adelaide who find themselves equal on points and desperate for a win to remain in the eight as well. It’s shaping up as a huge game for both clubs and may be the deciding factor as to who plays finals or not. Merrett and Parish worked tirelessly all night and Jye Caldwell had one of his best games finishing with 24 touches and two goals, including the goal that put Essendon in front with just a couple of minutes remaining. We could’ve been singing his praises today, but sadly he was trumped in the worst possible way. I wonder how Nic Martin is feeling today. It was his attempt to clear the ball outside 50 that found Houston. Kicking blindly from deep in defence is always dangerous. The youngster might’ve had a sleepless night reliving that moment over and over. He was very unlucky to have found one of the best kicks on the ground…
7. Adam Cerra would be leading Carlton’s best and fairest
In what has been a very tumultuous year for the Blues, Adam Cerra is probably one of the few that can hold their head high during those dark times when they lost eight games from nine from Rounds 5 through to Round 13. He has been very consistent this season and, unlike many of the stars at Carlton, his form didn’t waiver during that horror run. Carlton have now won their last two to keep their slim chance of playing finals alive, and Cerra’s form on Sunday against the Hawks and also in their previous win against the Suns tell a similar story. In both games he finished with 27 disposals and two goals. The fact he does hit the scoreboard proves his worth, and since coming across from the Dockers at the end of 2021, he’s certainly been impressive.
His former Docker teammate in Blake Acres also had a big day against Hawthorn which makes next week’s clash against their old club at Optus Stadium well-timed. Both sides can’t afford a loss, and both sides have had a mixed season. The Blues pulled off their sixth win to make it two in a row, but before the fans get excited, the teams they’ve beaten so far this year are not exactly world-beaters. And with games against the two top teams happening in July, the final nail to their 2023 campaign could be looming.
The Hawks were pretty disappointing, particularly in the first half. The Blues’ defence was very good, but their job was made a little easier by Hawthorn’s inefficiency going forward. Things changed a gear in the third quarter when Luke Breust started to get on top of Nic Newman, scoring a couple of quick goals and leaving Hawthorn down by 38 points at the final break after trailing by as much as 55. However, the Blues steadied in the final term finishing strongly with a six goal to two last quarter to record the first ten or more goal win against the struggling Hawks since 1995. Day, Worpel and Ward battled hard for the Hawks. The absence of the skipper through suspension was a real momentum killer for the Hawks. He still has one more week to serve. But those three wins in four weeks are fast becoming a distant memory after their two huge losses of the past fortnight. Their next two games are against the Giants in Sydney and North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium. A few weeks ago you would’ve almost put that down as a Hawks win, but unless they can turn this poor form around, the Roos are a chance.
8. Josh Kelly is a beautiful kick
I’ve been a big fan of Josh Kelly since he burst onto the AFL scene way back in 2014. At his best, his skills are sublime, and in the game against Melbourne in slippery conditions, whenever he got hold of the footy you would’ve been forgiven for thinking it was a dry day. He finished the game with 26 touches and two goals, but it was the goal that gave his team the lead with two minutes remaining in the game that showcased his rare talent.
As he took possession some 70m from goal, he looked ahead and saw a vacant goal square and wheeled around onto his trusty left foot launching a 60m bomb through the goals on the bounce to all but ice the game. This is the stuff of champions, and now the Giants are just a game outside the 8, having won four of their last five games. Beating the Demons is a genuine scalp and they’ll go into their Round 17 clash against the Hawks hot favourites. A win there will square the ledger with wins and losses which is a remarkable feat considering they were 3-7 after Round 10. Adam Kingsley seems to have found his coaching groove, and a finals berth is not out of the question.
It’s been a confusing year for the Demons. Their best is still pretty good, and they’ve won some big matches. They’ve now lost two in a row and their grip on a Top 4 spot is slipping with the Bulldogs snapping at their heels. The Demons of the last two years looked a more formidable opponent than this year’s team. They still seem a tall forward short and losing Fritsch early in this game was unhelpful. The other story of today was their inability to make the most of their opportunities in front of goal finishing with a costly 5.15 against a tidier 7.5 from GWS. Even the great Christian Petracca could only manage four behinds in the first half.
Jack Viney tried mightily to drag his side across the line with a huge last quarter and 40 possessions for the match. He’s playing great football and will need to continue that form to help his team gain a double chance in September. Next week the Demons take on St Kilda who are also down on their early season form. Neither side can afford a loss, but if Fritsch isn’t there, who will kick their goals? The inclusion of Brown didn’t pay dividends, although I’m sure conditions under the roof at Marvel will suit him far more than the winter blast they encountered in Alice Springs on Sunday. They’ll need him to fire next week.
9. Was Ross Lyon nine points away from talks of sacking?
This may seem a ridiculous question, but Brett Ratten’s tenure at the Saints came to an abrupt halt shortly after signing an extension based on a poor second half of the season brewing. This year’s St Kilda team is tracking along very similar lines. After winning the first four games of the year they’ve now won just 5 of their last 11. For now, they sit safely in the eight, although coming up against the bottom side who just lost by 171 points a week ago with only one win on the board for the season should’ve been a walk in the park.
The Saints were slow off the blocks and trailed by four goals at the long break. They finally hit the front in the last quarter when it became an arm wrestle and they managed to hang on by eight points. You take the win, and clearly, the Eagles did play a lot better this week, but you have to wonder what the talk would be if they had lost, and if the much-vaunted return of Ross Lyon would all of a sudden be deemed as an expensive error. He can thank Mitch Owens who finished with four goals and Jack Sinclair who is consistent as always for keeping the wolves from the door for now.
Looking at the remaining games for the Saints, they should find themselves playing finals. Of their eight games, only two are against sides currently in the eight. They should find four wins to keep them in finals contention, but on today’s form, this is not guaranteed. Maybe Ross isn’t the boss after all.
I was daring to dream that West Coast were going to hold on for a remarkable victory at home. We all love the underdog right? After what we saw last week and in recent times, they didn’t stand a snowflake’s chance in hell of winning any more games this year, let alone against the Saints on Sunday, but thankfully they had other ideas. Luke Shuey was a massive factor. He was back to his best providing a lot of drive out of the middle and he elevated his whole team. The youngster, Ryan Maric, who was plucked from obscurity in the mid-season draft is making the most of his chance and playing some great footy. He finished with two goals and was lively. Who knows? Maybe if they can get McGovern back at some point, or if Liam Ryan can regain fitness, they might pick up a win or two before the season is over, but when I hear their WAFL team is getting belted by 184 points, it certainly indicates a lack of personnel at dire levels.
A win to the Eagles today would’ve had people scouring the record books trying to find out if losing by 171 points and winning the following week would be the biggest loss before a win in AFL/VFL history. I’m sure someone knows the answer to that, but I tried to find out and my search went nowhere.
10. There are 12 teams battling for five spots in the eight
This year’s ladder is as interesting as any year in recent history. Between Melbourne who are 4th, and the Tigers who sit in 15th place, there are just ten premiership points separating them. At the same stage of the season last year, the side sitting 4th was Fremantle with 44 points, and sitting in 15th place was Hawthorn on just 16 points. That’s a differential of seven more wins from the Dockers.
It was a similar story in 2021 with 4th-placed Port Adelaide six games ahead of 15th-placed Adelaide. This year’s ladder is one of the closest in living memory, and there are literally seven sides outside the eight that are still in contention. It’s very exciting to see so many games seem like elimination finals in the coming weeks. Finding form at the right time is of the essence. Of all the sides sitting outside the eight, I’ll give you a quick synopsis of their form line and how it may influence their chances of September action.
Geelong. They are still not a shadow on their last year’s successful season. A fit Jeremy Cameron may turn it around and five remaining games at GMHBA might just do the trick.
GWS: They’re in as good form as any other side outside the eight, and their confidence is growing. I’ve got them winning another four or five games potentially, but will it be enough? The Round 24 game against Carlton may be interesting.
Fremantle: They have a fairly tough draw to come which includes games against the Top 3. If they were to lose to Carlton next week, I would say they won’t recover from that. They have to win that to stay alive.
Gold Coast: They have to go to Adelaide to play the Power this week. I don’t see them being any sort of chance in that game, and that could be when we put a line through them.
Sydney: Here’s the first elimination final coming up this week against the Tigers. The winner stays alive, and the loser will probably be too far gone in my humble opinion.
Carlton: They’ve had a much better fortnight, but until they can produce that football against the better teams, they won’t be a factor. If they can knock off the Dockers in Perth and then pinch a win against Port Adelaide at Marvel in Round 18, then we can talk about them again. Even one loss from those games will make it awfully difficult.
Richmond: Same as Sydney. They were very disappointing this week. Hopefully, that’s just a hiccup, but losing Prestia definitely has hurt them. They need to beat Sydney, but it’ll be interesting to see who they have available.
