The byes roll on, and Gab Rossi has taken a deeeep breath after another Carlton capitulation, to bring you the nine things he learnt after Round 13.
Let’s jump in.
1. The Swans v Saints first quarter was 30 minutes I won’t ever get back
I was looking forward to relaxing in front of the TV for the long-awaited return of Thursday football. However, by the end of the first quarter, the highlight of which was my decision to fix myself a bowl of Coco Pops, I was already starting to channel-flick. Sydney had failed to trouble the scorers while the Saints had managed just a paltry 1.1. Never before have I seen so many missed targets and so many poor forward entries all crammed into one quarter of AFL football, and that’s saying something considering I watch most Carlton games! The game got a little bit better after quarter time, but I’ll forever be haunted by that steaming pile of crap I had to sit through, and I have come to the conclusion that if coaches choose to focus on defence as a priority, our game looks like a chaotic mess and non-AFL observers would have little to no clue what is going on.
After quarter time, Sydney got going with a five-goal second quarter and looked to have shaken off the cobwebs from their slow start. The Swans lead the Saints up until three quarter time and should’ve been further ahead but for inaccuracy in front of goal. In front of a home crowd, and with Buddy celebrating his 350th game, it was disappointing to see a final quarter where the Saints dominated with more efficiency to possibly put an end to Sydney’s final hopes. Sydney have played six games at home this year for just two wins. Lance Franklin finished with two goals to take him up to fourth on the all-time goal-kicking list on an otherwise mediocre night for the home side. While the onballers got plenty of the ball, it didn’t translate on the scoreboard. Sydney will have to do the near impossible and beat Brisbane at the Gabba next round to stay in the hunt for a finals spot.
As for St Kilda, this was a good response after losing to the Hawks in Round 11 before their week off. Many tipped the Swans who have seen some improvements in the last month. The pleasing thing for St Kilda fans is the strong finish to the game when it looked like the Swans were on top. This win could be the one that gets them across the line to play finals in September, or it could even give them the confidence to aim as high as a Top 4 spot. After what was a quiet game by his lofty standards last week, Jack Sinclair was back to his best with 32 touches. This feller could be a smoky for the Brownlow. Rowan Marshall dominated Tom Hickey in the ruck duels with 50 hitouts. St Kilda’s next fortnight will be pivotal to their fortunes for season 2023. Saturday night’s clash against the Tigers now becomes a blockbuster with Richmond starting to find some form. In Round 15, St Kilda host Brisbane at Marvel Stadium but would probably love to get that game transferred to the MCG due to Brisbane’s dismal record at that ground, but we’ll talk about that later.
2. Port Adelaide don’t lose at Marvel
For some reason, the Power have now won their last nine games at Docklands. That record would be the envy of any of the non-Victorian teams as most have an away record that often makes their aspirations of playing finals all the more difficult. Port Adelaide have just won a lazy ten games in a row. And to think, just ten weeks ago, most AFL pundits saw Ken Hinkley as the coach under the most pressure. Now they look like genuine premiership contenders, although there’s still that little issue of a poor finals record to deal with just yet.
Zak Butters was the star once again with 31 touches and a goal. He’ll be hard to go past for the three Brownlow votes as he closes the gap between himself and the current favourite, Nick Daicos. Charlie Dixon enjoyed his return from injury with four goals. All in all, the Power had contributors on every line in what was yet another signal to the rest of the competition that they’re the real deal. The Cats will be hoping to break their winning streak next round.
The Bulldogs now sit on the precipice of tumbling out of the eight after their third straight loss. They should be able to return to the winners’ list next week against the improved Kangaroos. They’ll then have a week off and will face the Dockers at Marvel in Round 16 followed by the Magpies in Round 17. All is not lost but they have plenty of work to do in order to play in September. Skipper Marcus Bontempelli loked as though he may have come under scrutiny for a high bump on Port Adelaide’s Dan Houston but it was decided he had no case to answer. Players really have to think long and hard about whether a bump is worth attempting these days. Cody Weightman started brightly with three first-quarter goals but was quiet after that. Adam Treloar didn’t seem troubled by his hamstring concerns and amassed 34 possessions, although his kicking efficiency let him down. Tom Liberatore worked tirelessly, first trying to quell Zak Butters and then Horne-Francis. He still managed to get 34 touches of his own but Butters in particular was damaging at times. It’s really hard to get a gauge on where the Dogs are at, and a quick look at their remaining games for the year makes them no certainty to make finals.
3. The Hawks have the wood on the Lions
You have to go back to Round 19, 2019, when the Brisbane Lions last beat Hawthorn. It was a game played in Tasmania at UTAS stadium and the Lions were victorious to the tune of 27 points. Since then the Hawks have beaten the Lions four times in a period where Hawthorn have not finished above 13th place on the ladder while the Lions have played finals each year. And now the 16th place Hawks have beaten the fourth placed Lions yet again with a blistering ten goals to three second half after trailing by 17 points at half time.
Chris Fagan was quizzed about their poor record against the Hawks after the game and made the point that none of those games had been played in Brisbane. I’d say the concern should be more about why the Lions’ form away from home is a shadow of their form at the Gabba. Until that’s addressed, the Lions will not win a flag despite a list that might suggest otherwise, especially when you consider that Brisbane have only one once from their past 13 games at the MCG!
Eric Hipwood had a solid match booting four goals. Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley both did their best to keep the Lions in the game, but in terms of numbers, it falls away pretty badly after that. It’s worth noting that Hawthorn had over 100 more possessions than their opponents with a staggering 211 handballs for the game. The Lions take on the Swans at home next round and then head to Marvel to take on St Kilda the week after. They should still make finals, but their form on the road suggests they’ll just be making up the numbers.
Hawthorn has now won three from its last four outings. Aside from their poor first half against Port Adelaide last week, their form has been impressive. The tactic of high handballs in this game seemed to be part of a plan coming into this game. It seemed to do the trick, particularly in the second half, where the Lions were run off their feet by their younger and seemingly slicker opponents. Many had questioned Sam Mitchell’s coaching credentials in the early part of the season, especially with his list cull that saw some high-end players let go. These last four weeks have seen his stocks rising fast. He clearly did his homework on the Lions during the week and the win speaks for itself. The Hawks look likely to win a few more games in the run home this year and it seems likely they’ll lift themselves out of the bottom four and perhaps set up an assault for a finals push in 2024. They have the tall forwards in Lewis and Koschitzke scoring goals, a midfield that is getting plenty of the ball and a defensive unit lead by skipper James Sicily who, after an indifferent start to this year it must be said, is growing nicely into the role. Perhaps he may need to control his aggression a little as he may be sidelined for his big tackle on McCluggage once again, but he is in career-best form. After a break next week, the Hawks venture up to Carrara to take on the Suns. Gold Coast will do well not to take that game lightly.
4. The West Coast Eagles may have skewed this year’s Coleman
In Round Seven, Charlie Curnow booted 9 goals against the struggling Eagles. This propelled him to the top of the Coleman Medal race. Since then he has managed just ten goals in the last six games. Coming into this round, Taylor Walker had scored 28 goals for the season. After going one better than Charlie and kicking ten goals for the match, the Crows veteran is now right up there in the race, just two goals shy of the leader. It would appear that playing the Eagles could influence the outcome of the Coleman Medal, and with Charlie getting a second crack against them in Round 19, it may give him his best chance of back to back Colemans.
Such was the Eagles’ lack of genuine defenders that they had Elliot Yeo playing on Walker. Tex took full advantage, guiding his team to the biggest win of the year. They may repeat the dose in Round 16 as they take on the Kangaroos at home. Even though North have improved, the Crows at home have been ominous for most of the year and will go after the Roos one would think. Adelaide get the week off before heading to Melbourne to take on ladder leaders Collingwood. One suspects they’ll have their work cut out for them in that game.
I’ll try and focus on some positives for the West Coast Eagles. Mid-year draft pick Ryan Maric joined the group of players who scored a goal with their first kick in AFL football. In what is shaping as a fairytale story, the 18-year-old who was working at Woolworths just a few weeks ago has now debuted in the big time and finished with two goals. Hopefully, the crushing defeats he will be enduring don’t dampen his enthusiasm too much, but right now he’s living the dream and looks like he’s up to the rigours of AFL football. Bailey Williams performed well in the ruck and was one of West Coast’s best. Tim Kelly worked hard for his 27 touches, but overall the Crows had the ball over 100 times more than the Eagles and had complete control of the game from the start. This is going to be a long season for Adam Simpson and the players. Another win looks unlikely, and the only hope is an improvement on the back of players returning from injury.
5. Never write off the Tigers
Coming into this round, I expected Fremantle to be too good for the Tigers in front of their home crowd. It’s always a tough ask to have two weeks on the road and play well in that second match, but the Tigers were clearly up for the challenge. I had all but prepared a eulogy for the Richmond Football Club’s finals prospects coming into this round, but instead, I’m looking to their upcoming games and trying to calculate what chance they have of playing finals. The odds are still against them, but what could’ve been an impossibility is now a genuine chance.
What was all the more impressive was the fact they held off the Dockers who got to within 7 points early in the final term after trailing by 36 points midway through the third quarter. The final margin was a 15-point win as the Tigers stood tall in the west. Jayden Short’s three long goals were fun to watch. Tim Taranto is fast becoming the trade of the year. He finished with 35 possessions and two goals and is proving to be very difficult for oppositions to control. Dustin Martin (27) and Dion Prestia (27) are both finding the footy plenty of times and slowly, but surely, the team is starting to look like the contenders they’ve been in recent years. Shai Bolton’s final quarter was also brilliant and went a long way towards getting his team across the line. Next week’s game against the Saints will be huge for both sides, and a complete flip of the coin for tipsters I feel.
This loss will be a setback for the Dockers who had worked their way back into the season so well after and indifferent start to 2023. A win in this game would’ve seen them displace the Bulldogs in 8th place with a game in hand. It’s a massive lost opportunity and they’ll be ruing their flatness for the first two and a half quarters. Jye Amiss continued his good form with 4 goals, including one that brought his team to within 7 points early in the final quarter. Serong and Brayshaw played their part in getting their side back into the contest, finishing with 31 and 29 possessions respectively. Nat Fyfe is getting back to some good form kicking a contender for goal of the year in the process. Freo are still in the mix for a Top 8 finish, but it all starts next week as they trek to Giants Stadium to take on Toby Greene’s Giants who are showing signs of improvement and will be hard to beat. The Dockers can’t afford a loss there.
6. Don’t tip the Kangaroos
Since Ratten took the reins from Clarkson, North Melbourne have played a far more competitive level of football. They should’ve beaten the Swans but eventually lost by three points. They played OK against the top side losing by a respectable 35 points. A late goal to D’Ambrosio for the Bombers, when scores were level, resulted in the Kangaroos losing by just 6 points to a side in finals contention. So, with all this in mind, and with the game against GWS being played in Tasmania where the Roos would be in familiar surroundings, I thought this will be the week where North Melbourne break through and end their ten-game losing streak.
They were well in the game to halftime, but the third quarter was all the Giants as they went into the last break with a comfortable 26-point lead. They eventually won the game by 28 points and North fans will possibly be even more disillusioned after the way they didn’t give a yelp after half time. Nick Larkey continued his good season with four goals. Tarryn Thomas started well but faded as the game wore on. He’s missed a lot of football and is still finding his feet, but 19 touches and three goals is a step in the right direction. Hopefully, the Kangaroos don’t start to fall away after what has been a better month than most.
The Giants are two games adrift of 8th place, but they’ll consider themselves an outside chance of sneaking into the finals. A win against the Dockers next week will go a long way to making that a possibility, but a loss there would just about signal the end for their finals prospects. There aren’t enough superlatives to describe how important a player Toby Greene is. He finished with 24 possessions and three goals, but it was the two late goals in the third quarter that sealed the deal. He has an uncanny knack of bobbing up at the right time to get his team over the line. The midfield group of Ward, Whitfield, Coniglio and Green are in solid form. The experienced players at GWS have lifted in recent weeks and the wins have started coming through. It’s probably still beyond them this year, but they’re certainly going to be nuisance value throughout the remainder of this season.
7. The Blues fail to score above 60 for the fifth week in a row
You’ll be struggling to see a more wasteful team than Carlton right now. The last five games have seen the Blues score a staggering 33.65. When bottom sides struggle to kick a winning score, it’s often on the back of a lack of forward entries and genuine opportunities. That can’t be said for Carlton. This week against the Bombers, the Blues entered their forward 50 56 times which was 15 times more than Essendon. For the third week straight the Blues only managed six goals in what is fast becoming the biggest joke for this season.
Coach Michael Voss is well and truly under pressure as he seems incapable of turning this self-defeating slump around. There’s a fair chance that the club will retain him as coach into next year for fear of going down yet another path of sacking a coach for what would be the fifth time in ten years. The end result could be a situation where they keep a guy who can’t get the job done. Many cite the Hardwick story where he was under similar pressure at the end of 2016. The club stuck with him, and the rest is history. However, if the Carlton Football Club think that’s possible at their joint, they’d want to be right, because Blues fans have very little patience left on the back of over two decades of horrendous decisions. Watch this space.
Watching this game, it was as though Essendon knew that all the hard work that the Carlton players did in the first half would not amount to much. After the Blues dominated the second term but could only manage 2.5 during that period of dominance, a couple of late goals to the Bombers undid all that work in the space of two minutes, and then after half time they stepped up and the Blues could only look on. Trailing by just two points at the main break, Carlton looked powerless as the Bombers kicked the first six goals of the third quarter to open up a 39-point lead. Peter Wright must’ve thought all his birthdays had come at once coming up against an inept Carlton and finishing with five goals in his first outing for 2023. Nic Martin finished with 30 touches in a strong performance. The Bombers have the week off before they head to Perth to take on the Dockers. That will be a huge game for both clubs and may determine just which one makes finals.
The less said about Carlton the better. Patrick Cripps looks decidedly unhappy on the field. Harry McKay’s pre-shot routine looks uncertain virtually every single time. Charlie Curnow started the game with four behinds by halftime. Sam Walsh is becoming one of those players who gets a lot of the ball without hurting the opposition. And the most damning statistic of all was the lowest tackle count since 2015 with just 33 tackles laid for the game. This is a bottom four club now, and it’s going to take a lot of work to break out of that group. Blues fans have every right to be disgusted in what is yet another example of self-destruction at Ikon Park. I expect the crowd at next week’s MCG fixture against the Suns to be lucky to reach 30,000.
8. Melbourne tells the competition not to forget about them
A loss to the Pies was bound to happen at some point. This game probably should have been decided a little earlier than it was due to Melbourne’s wayward kicking. So many set shots went wide and it kept Collingwood in the game. Their two late goals in the last minute brought them to within 4 points while those of us watching on were thinking here we go again. Thankfully the Demons were able to withstand that last frantic 26 seconds and hold on. A loss would’ve seen them end up 3 games adrift from second spot and in massive danger of dropping out of the Top 4. All of a sudden they’ve re-emerged as a premiership threat once more. Jack Viney was outstanding with 32 touches and a goal. Bayley Fritsch booted 3.3 while Petracca and Hunter both had 28 touches each. Lachie Hunter has settled into the line-up after a slowish start to the year and is proving to be a valuable pickup for the Demons. Melbourne has a week off before facing Geelong at GMHBA in what will be a tough assignment.
Collingwood still remain on top of the ladder separated only by percentage from Port Adelaide. They also have a week off before facing the Crows at the MCG in Round 15. Adelaide have found life on the road fairly tough and it will require a huge effort to come away with a win in that one. I still see Collingwood as a top-two side although I am expecting them to have a period where they may battle to maintain their winning form. Could this be the start of it? The Pies just couldn’t penetrate that Melbourne defence in this game. Many think of May and Lever as the pillars of their defence, but this week’s effort by Tomlinson taking 10 marks as well as 24 touches by Salem show that the Dees are more than just a two-man defence. Mihocek was held goalless until the last minute. Tom Mitchell battled hard with his 30 touches and Crisp was among the Pies’ best with 28. They almost pinched it once again, but this loss might be the one they had to have. The win to Melbourne is goods for the competition. It may have become a two-horse race if the Dees fell short.
9. Coming off a bye appears to be a disadvantage
In Round 12, there were four teams who had their mid-season bye in Brisbane, Fremantle, Sydney and St Kilda. Brisbane played 16th placed Hawthorn and even though their record at the MCG and against Hawthorn in recent times is abysmal, they would’ve been going into that game as favourites. Fremantle were at home against the Tigers who are finding form it has to be said, but once again, at home and after the Tigers played in Sydney last week, a fresher Fremantle would’ve been seen as having the edge coming into that contest, but it wasn’t to be. And of course, Sydney and St Kilda played against each other so there had to be a loser and a winner in that contest, although we did see what was possibly the worst first quarter of any game this year. So there’s plenty there to suggest that a break in the middle of the year may be of no benefit, and could in fact be detrimental if this week’s results are anything to go by.
Only two sides sat this round out in Geelong and Gold Coast. Even if you could successfully argue that Gold Coast’s form in Melbourne is questionable, they’ll be playing one of the most underperforming sides in Carlton who have just won one game in their last nine outings. If Gold Coast get beaten by the struggling Blues, it could be attributed to the bye. Geelong’s game will be harder to gauge as they’ll be playing the Power in Adelaide which will be a tough assignment at the best of times. That said, if it turns out to be a loss by a big margin, my theory might check out. Of course, if the Cats and the Suns could both have a win and blow it out of the water. Time will tell. But so far it certainly hasn’t gone the way of teams coming off a break. All four teams who rested last week definitely looked flat at various stages of their games. The most curious one was the Lions who faded out, but maybe that’s just a sign the Hawks are coming good.
