Despite a paltry 25% Suns win record at Docklands, on paper this Saturday night match-up looked to be a cracker with Ross Lyon’s Saints humming on the back of three consecutive wins, while Stuey Dew’s Suns were fresh from taking out the admittedly sputtering reigning premiers in a powerful performance to kickstart their year.
The first term saw the Suns take it right up to the home team, winning critical contests and statistical categories alike, but probably failed to take full advantage on the scoreboard as the Saints looked undermanned down back with Cal Wilkie, in particular, giving away three free kicks to King & Casboult on account of the size differential. After that point however their manic attack and smooth transition play dried up completely as The BossTM tightened his grip on proceedings, unleashing a simultaneously disciplined, yet free-flowing style that dispatched Gold Coast to passive onlookers for the remainder of the game.
Let’s have a deeper look into five areas that won or lost the game:
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS, WHO ANSWERS?
St Kilda have only played finals once since their ‘glory years’(?) ended in 2011, and that was during the shortened Covid year in 2020, Gold Coast have never played in September, nor looked likely in their existence which commenced in 2011, as well. This game was a gilt-edged chance for one of these teams to lay serious claim to addressing that anomaly that should through equalisation mean every club is playing finals approximately every other year. The Saints made the bold choice to dispense with their newly re-signed coach last off-season in preference of the man who took them to the brink of glory, but then spurned them for a shinier, newer model. During the lead into the year, serious injuries to several key players ensued, leading most pundits not to consider St Kilda as a legitimate finals contender, but after three rounds they sat atop the table with three wins, each more impressive than the one that preceded it. A fourth win on the hop would have even the most fearsome pessimist reconsidering their stance. Meanwhile, the Suns, predicted to finally challenge in 2023 had started poorly with two losses but had looked to have turned the corner with a resounding win against the Cats at home, on the back of a coming-of-age performance by two former high picks, Matt Rowell and Jack Lukosius.
There was a scenario where both teams could have finished this game with their ambitions and reputations intact, but this was definitely not the case at Marvel, as the Saints systematically broke down the Suns’ game plan, rendering Lukosius (one behind) and Rowell (12 touches) largely ineffective. It remains to be seen if the Saints can continue on such an upward trajectory, but they appear well-drilled, committed to playing for the team, and comprised of a nice mix of stars, maturity and surprise packets to cause some damage. The Suns are unfortunately back to the drawing board, this side just contains far too many players not up to AFL standard, and the high draft picks have not developed as you’d hope. The absence of Jarrod Witts was keenly felt, and seemed to impact Touk Miller’s ability to influence the result as well. It’s a long season, but it looks as though nothing short of a miracle will prevent another disappointing result from the Gold Coast.
THE RECYCLEDS (yes, I know it’s not a word)
St Kilda currently has a very intriguing list profile of high-end picks (Gresham, Clark et al), shrewd additions from low draft picks or cheap trades (e.g. Steele, Marshall), ready-made acquisitions (Howard, Crouch, Hill) and then a group who while not necessarily cast off from their previous clubs, certainly not on the high priority to keep list. These include such players as Jack Higgins, Dan Butler, Mason Wood, Liam Stocker and Zaine Cordy.
This group in particular have been a source of rapid improvement in the short time The BossTM has been back at Moorabbin, and two will feature in the votes for the game, with a third unlucky to miss. Liam Stocker has been a revelation after his tenure at Carlton surprisingly came to a close after last season, played with a renewed assuredness that is seeing his collect over 20 touches per game at above the elite 80% disposal efficiency marker, he was superb last night cleaning up in the back half and calmly distributing the ball further afield. We know one Jack doesn’t put a smile on the grizzled jaw of SOS, but I suspect Liam’s sterling 2023 form does.
Mason Wood was talked about this week as a potential AA candidate, nothing that occurred last night would have dissuaded those believers as he is very quickly becoming one of the best wingers in the game, his long accurate kicking, strong marking, and two-way running make him a difficult match up as well as a potent offensive asset. Finally realising his potential.
Jack Higgins, after a couple of really good years after crossing from the Tigers, saw his form fell away last year and he stopped doing the hard work that complemented his highlight reel footy smarts. The new coach has re-motivated him to have that defensive mindset again when the ball is in dispute, and this is further enhancing his capacity to find space, which he did to great acclaim finishing off the work of his teammates to the tune of five goals. His 22 touches overall included a goal assist and a game-high 12 score involvements.
Zaine Cordy and Dan Butler were less conspicuous, but each played their part, picking up a goal apiece, with Butler laying five tackles including two I50 and Cordy gave Marshall a chop out in the ruck with eight hit outs.
The Suns featured a few of their own “recycleds” who enjoyed varying degrees of success throughout the game, Sam Collins fought an entertaining match-up with young Anthony Caminiti, his 13 intercepts were a game high. Levi Casboult started extremely well with five of his 13 touches coming in the first term including his sole goal, but faded thereafter as the Saints took control, meanwhile former St Kilda enforcer Ben Long had a night he’d rather forget with only nine touches at 33% efficiency and three free kicks conceded.
A TALE OF TWO CITIES COACHES
The two men in charge of the game yesterday have some similarities in their journey, both highly skilled players who completed their coaching apprenticeship in the successful Sydney system, their senior coaching careers are panels apart, however. Dew set up an enterprising game plan built around winning the contested ball in the midfield and then launching it with speed into the tall forward line featuring King, Casboult and Lukosius. From there he charged his small fleet of Oea, Rosas and Ainsworth to use their speed and desperation to keep the ball alive and pressure the opposition. In the first term, it worked extremely well, a lead on the scoreboard was built on the back of a 5-1 centre clearance advantage, a 7-0 I50 offensive tackle count differential and a 35-23 lead in marks around the ground. The ball movement was neat and creative, Noah Anderson the primary driving force here as he repeatedly chose great options to progress his team’s attack.
The BossTM bided his time, remaining calm under this withering blast, trusting his disciplined systems to take over, and with the addition of a Collingwood-esque swarm of supporting runners, took complete control of the game in the second term. Those statistical advantages earned by the Suns in the first term, disappeared in the blink of an eye as St Kilda clawed each one back by the long break: 5-7 centre clearances, 5-8 TI50 and 47-41 marks in general play. Lyon has often been accused of a boring, defensive mentality in his previous coaching stints, while his new reincarnation is built around a well-oiled backline, he has learnt some lessons through reflection and observation and has added a frenetic offensive counter punch to the mix. Partially caused by injury to talismanic skipper Jack Steele, the move to drag AA Jack Sinclair up to the ball has been a masterstroke as his creative ball use and relentless running lead to repeated scoring opportunities, highlighted best by a turnover that he anticipated from Anderson kicking centrally, before bursting away to set up a simple Caminiti goal.
THE KEY POSITION BATTLE
The Suns were on the front foot early, Casboult and King (understandably to a degree after serious injury, but basic skill errors won’t be forgiven much longer) causing headaches up forward, while Collins and Ballard controlled the aerial route as Cordy and Caminiti were well held. Josh Battle was a key in transforming the advantage the Saints way, his ability to get to more packs resulted in three contested marks, later matched by Cal Wilkie as he completely blanketed a woefully out-of-form King, who was unable to hold a single mark and Casboult couldn’t grasp the few opportunities he got a clear run at. Meanwhile down the other end, Michito Owens broke open the Suns’ defence, crashing packs and landing a game-high four contested marks, as he inspired fellow youngster Caminiti to even up his compelling contest against Collins finishing with two goals from three set shots.
The Saints could also call on Windhager and Phillipou at times who both play tall while retaining great ground level agility and didn’t even need to resort to pushing Marshall forward as the weight of numbers didn’t just break but obliterated the dam wall. The Suns just got no production from their three key targets, only 6 marks between King, Casboult and Lukosius were eclipsed by Howard, Battle and Wilkie who collectively recorded 30 marks for the night.
GRADE A RUCK
I was genuinely looking forward to the ruck battle in this game with likely AA ruckman at this stage of the season Jarrod Witts up against the chasing pack led by Rowan Marshall. I have a perception that Marshall doesn’t stand up against the true top tier of the competition, badly beaten in games last year against Gawn, McInerney (Rd 13), Nankervis and Sean Darcy, but against less mature or dominant ruckmen he plays like Dean Cox. So, it was of great disappointment when Witts was a late out, replaced with first gamer, but highly touted Ned Moyle.
As expected with the late selection change, Marshall was prominent until subbed out deep into the third term, he collected 21 touches, often providing link play as the Saints scythed through the feeble Suns’ defensive structure, and extracting seven clearances, only behind Miller for the match in far less game time. He won 24 hit outs, with nine to advantage, but was probably upstaged by his rookie opposition in this measure, Moyle very impressive winning 48% of ruck contests and directing 43% of those 35 hit outs to his team’s advantage. Marshall won’t be tested again next week as the Magpies are without even a competent backup follower, so we’ll need to wait patiently to see if he can take that next leap and stand alongside the preeminent giants in the comp.
Moyle on the other hand was discussed on the trading places podcast as a player of great interest around the league currently biding his time behind warhorse Witts. This outing will have done nothing to dispel the excitement as his huge frame, natural athleticism and coordination were one of the very few shining lights during a Marvel eclipse of the Suns.
And to complement Jack Higgins five-goal haul, here are five quick observations to finish us off:
MATT ROWELL
The former number one selection had managed to translate his harder defensive edge to a productive offensive output in 2023 thus far but was completely ineffective in this game collecting just 12 touches at 58% down from a season average of 24. He did compete, offering seven tackles and five clearances, but with Miller unable to exert his usual impact, Anderson who was excellent desperately needed the support.
PRESSURE FORWARDS
Early on it appeared as though the Suns had stumbled on to a tactical advantage with Hewago Oea and Malcolm Rosas running riot at the feet of the tall Suns forwards, their speed and tenacity forcing turnovers and regular goal scoring opportunities. It reminded me of the successful tactic employed by Fremantle last year with Schultz, Frederick, Switkowski causing mayhem, but couldn’t be sustained as the Saints key backs refused to let the ball hit the ground thereafter. Curious the Suns top goal scorer from last year Mabior Chol can’t break into this line up considering their relative lack of firepower at present.
JOEL JEFFREY
The Suns forward loped laconically towards goal in the second term with the game still in the balance, casually baulking his opponent and nonchalantly dribbling the ball before raising his arm in triumph, Josh Battle wasn’t as convinced though and his desperate lunge got fingers to the ball before it crossed the line turning what should have been a certain goal and potential heart starter into a momentum killer. In the third term Jeffrey had an opportunity to make amends, and while he did score the goal on this occasion again chose to dribble the ball increasing the level of difficulty and potential for mistake. He was subbed out shortly afterwards in a forgettable game.
GREAT GOALS
Seb Ross & Michito Owens both put forward nominations for goal of the round in a match filled with St Kilda highlights. Ross not a noted goalkicker, positioned himself to take the ball out of a stoppage, breaking the Miller tackle he spun back inside and snapped truly from a tight angle bringing the crowd to its feet. Owens, a real livewire all game was able to gather a difficult groundball after half time in the same pocket Ross saluted from in the first term and worked the ball through the goals from a difficult angle. It was a stunning goal from an emerging talent, but if pushed probably beaten on the night by Ross’ effort.
SELECTION DILEMMAS
The Saints are flying at 4-0 even with an extensive injury list that includes the following players who all have a claim to being best 22, Steele, King, Coffield, Billings, Membrey, Hayes, Jones. It’s a good problem to have, competition for spots can drive performance, but I’d also warn against diluting a winning formula. Steele is a certainty to return as the captain and best player, King and Membrey likely, but the form of Owens and Caminiti cannot be understated. Owens in particular was stunning, winning his own ball, marking courageously in packs, kicking goals and trending to be a breakout star. Coffield and Billings should be very worried that their roles have now been filled and will need to earn them back in the seconds.
WHAT’S NEXT FOR THESE TEAMS?
For the high-flying Saints next week is a salivating match up against the Magpies in Adelaide as part of Gather Round. A week of soul searching appears to be on the cards for the Suns, a clash with the misfiring Dockers on the neutral Norwood Oval a last-chance saloon in 2023 for each of these sides.
