As a Blues fan born in 1971, I’ve seen my share of success. I was just 24 years old when the Blues chalked up their sixth flag during my lifetime.
Being a Carlton supporter was fun during that dominant era. We all know what’s happened to the club since those glory days, but there are signs that this embattled football club may be on the verge of something big after what was a blistering start to their 2022 campaign. Of course, this ultimately fizzled out with the Blues falling agonizingly short of making finals after a decade of failure. Will they finally be part of September action in 2023?
Most Blues fans, myself included, don’t even want to tempt fate by answering that question. It’s more of a wait and see approach born from years of mediocrity and a string of disappointing seasons. With all that in mind, the weight of pressure on this club to enjoy success is such that most Blues fans will accept nothing less than a finals berth. The scary thing for most of us loyal and long-suffering devotees of the Navy Blue is we know that falling short once more will mean the club will possibly implode at season’s end and with it will come yet another clean-out of epic proportions. It just can’t happen.
OK, so now after that paragraph, I need to take a breath. It’s time to think rational thoughts and to put forward a case as to why this year we really should break that drought. Yes, there will be some bias in my analysis of the playing list, but I will do my best to try and be as objective as I possibly can and I promise to use both eyes. I do believe opposition supporters would’ve seen enough during last season to recognise our best football is scarily good. What I will endeavour to do is go through our list in sections to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses. My belief is that by the end of this, I will have convinced you, the reader, that Carlton will play finals this year.
However, after the doom and gloom of the last two decades, I’m probably doing this more so to convince myself…
THE BACK-LINE
Carlton’s back line conceded just 78 points on average which was ranked sixth in the AFL last season. In recent seasons the Blues gave away big scores all too often, but under Voss, the defence were able to tighten up and provide a result that was far superior to anything since 2011 where they finished fifth and narrowly missed making the preliminary final by less than a kick with Chris Judd at the helm. Other than the heavily affected COVID season of 2020 where just 17 games were played and the playing time was reduced, the Blues defence didn’t even come close to the average achieved in 2022. The average scores against during that period ranged from 86 points to as much as 107 points per game. Last year saw the Blues take a huge step in the right direction in what is beginning to look like a fairly settled defensive unit. Jacob Weitering was having a stellar season until a shoulder injury against the Pies saw him miss several weeks. He returned later in the season but was not quite the same impenetrable force he was earlier on. A lot depends on him finding his best form, but if he does it will go a long way to help the Blues achieve their goals. It will shock a lot of people to know that Jacob enters this season just 25 years of age with already 133 games under his belt. The Weitering injury, however, paved the way for Lewis Young to assume the role, and what we saw was a great pair of hands on a guy who looked very much at home in defence.
Playing Mitch McGovern in defence also proved a master stroke. This will be an important year for Mitch who has shown glimpses without really setting the world on fire. At 28, he still has currency, but another indifferent season could see the end for him. Caleb Marchbank made his return after three years on the sidelines. It will be interesting to see how he comes out this season. A fit Marchbank would mean an embarrassment of riches in the tall defender department.
The smaller defenders include the likes of Nic Newman, Adam Saad and the evergreen Sam Docherty. We all know what Saad is capable of, and losing Newman to injury last year may have unsettled the backline a little. Much maligned Lachie Plowman can still do the job but he may be starved of opportunities in what many believe may be his final season in the AFL unless he can reignite his career. We saw Docherty spend some time last season in the middle. If all these players can stay healthy, you may see more of that this year. And speaking of small defenders, we’ve already seen another disastrous injury to Zac Williams. His season’s gone, and one is starting to get the impression he just has one of those bodies that doesn’t hold up. I hope I’m wrong, because I know the kid can play, but with the money he’s on the poor feller is becoming a bit of a liability. But once again, looking at the small defenders at Carlton, there’s plenty there to get excited about. I believe they will be hard to score against once more in 2023.
THE MIDFIELD
There has already been some consternation at Ikon Park this preseason with the concerns over star midfielder Sam Walsh. Since joining the Blues as the number one pick from the 2018 national draft, Walsh hasn’t missed a beat, proving very early on he was a ready-made AFL player. In just four seasons he’s played 81 games. Some have suggested he may be missing for a large chunk of the first half of the 2023 season due to the ongoing back complaint he’s been unable to resolve so far. Even though you would love to have him available in every game, the signs from the 2022 season shows a Blues midfield with more options compared to any time in the last decade.
So, perhaps if Walsh can’t find his way back from injury in the early rounds, it’s possible his absence might not be felt as strongly as we think. A midfield that boasts a bull like Patrick Cripps is always going to threaten opposition teams. At this point in time you could argue quite easily that he is the best clearance player in the league, although Tom Liberatore might have something to say about that. Adam Cerra slotted in nicely after crossing over from the Dockers last year and has been a prolific ballwinner, particularly early on when the Blues were flying. But without a doubt, the recruiting coup of 2022 for the Blues was former Swan George Hewett. As soon as he donned the navy Blue, he looked right at home and was scintillating at times. It’s no coincidence that the Blues fell short of finals action with losses late in the season with an injured Hewett on the sidelines.
This group of four will be joined by another former Docker in Blake Acres on a wing coming off what was possibly the best season of his career. You could also add Sam Docherty into the mix playing a midfield role which he did so with great impact a few times in 2022. And don’t worry Blues fans. I haven’t forgotten about Matthew Kennedy who has finally got the self-belief to fulfil the potential many thought he never would. The only issue with the players I’ve mentioned above is the lack of sheer pace. As a supporter, I wonder if we are one speedster short in the middle. Perhaps some consideration may be given to Zac Fisher who does possess genuine pace. Many have argued that he hasn’t been utilised in the best possible way and could be more suited to on-ball duties rather than the small forward role he is often assigned.
The Blues seemed to have a little lack of depth in their ruck stocks in 2022. Marc Pittonet missed over three months with a knee injury leaving the bulk of the work to youngster Tom de Koning with the sometimes ridiculous scenario of Jack Silvagni offering a support role. De Koning had a great first half of the year but did seem to tire as the season wore on resulting him being omitted late in the year. A fit Pittonet would be the ideal scenario as he is more than serviceable with a healthy body, but another issue with his body this season may see them a little exposed with the hope a one year older de Koning will be able to sustain good form longer than last season. As with most clubs, success usually comes with lists that stay healthy, and the ruck department at Carlton is one that can afford injuries the least. All in all, the Blues midfield is an exciting group that looks set to really take this season by storm. Cripps coming off a Brownlow win will be as hungry as ever after the events of last year and will lift those around him I’m sure. I haven’t even mentioned Paddy Dow and Lachie O’Brien either. Dow struggled to get a game, but when he was approached to look at being traded, despite being overlooked for most of last year, he was adamant he wanted to remain a Blue and fight for his place. It wasn’t all that long ago that many were keen to get off the sinking ship.
THE FORWARD LINE
For most of its recent history, Carlton has struggled to trouble the scoreboard enough to go past 100. It was a combination of simply being ordinary all over the park as well as having no firepower close to goal. The Blues now have a forward line that boasts the last two Coleman medallists, a rare feat with two different players from the same club winning it in consecutive years.
Charlie Curnow is almost the player we thought he was before his exceptionally cruel run with injury. Thankfully, his body held up and he was able to have his biggest impact yet. The weight of expectation on him will be huge, but we may just see a true superstar of the competition have his best year if things go smoothly. And opposition teams get no respite, because if Charlie doesn’t fire, Harry probably will. The twin towers, as they are affectionately known, could be the reason why the Blues feature in September this year. Jack Silvagni proved his worth to the Blues last year often playing the role of the 3rd tall when he wasn’t being whisked away to help out in the ruck. Hopefully this year he gets to stay closer to home to cause further headaches for defensive units. I’m also a fan of having Matthew Kennedy closer to goal. He’s a beautiful overhead mark and a solid kick for goal. He did a lot of his work in the middle and was very handy, but I’m beginning to wonder if there’s any room left in there with what appears to be up to ten players already vying for spots in that on-ball brigade. For us Blues fans, not only is it a beautiful problem to have, it’s in total contrast to the previous decade that saw one or two workhorses giving their all only to be surrounded by passengers who had minimal impact on the contest. Our prayers to the football gods for 2023 will be a fit and healthy list that can see the likes of Kennedy do some damage as part of the forward group.
The Blues have a number of small forwards on their list, and the only real concern with them is they’re mostly very early in their career. I speak, of course, of the triumvirate of Owies, Durdin and Motlop. All three have been given a fair crack at senior level, and all three have shown flashes of brilliance and good goal-sense. Owies and Durdin will be keen to find form early this year on the back of an indifferent finish to their respective seasons in 2022. As was also the case with de Koning, that seems to happen all too often when players are in the early part of their AFL journey. Motlop was a shining light during Carlton’s rather bleak second half of the season in just his first year, but he wasn’t elevated to the senior team until around halfway. He looked great, but the question will be if he can sustain that sort of form for 22 games and beyond? We certainly hope so. Carlton’s small forward stocks do show a lot of promise, but in what will be a make or break year, perhaps at least two of these kids will need to fire. Maybe a more experienced head in Zac Fisher can also help out if he doesn’t spend too much time in the middle, but as I said earlier, I’d like to see his speed utilised where it’s needed, and for me, that’s the midfield.
THE COACHES BOX
It was obvious very early in 2022 that Michael Voss had stamped his imprimatur on the playing group. It was a shot in the arm to every Blues fan to see a level of commitment that had been mostly absent for two decades. Credit needed to go to the new coach for the general shift away from mediocrity. There was one glaring problem which I have no doubt will be the focus of the coaching crew coming into 2023. Despite winning numerous games, Carlton virtually never put up performances that spanned evenly across the four quarters of any given match. They seemingly played in bursts, and in a lot of cases it was enough to get the four points. There were many games late in the year where we had one good quarter against three very lacklustre periods where we seemed a little tuned out of the contest. Many are touting Carlton as a true finals prospect, with some even daring to suggest Top 4. I’m a little more circumspect.
As disappointing as last year was, I think a fairly young list under a coach at his first year at the club are always likely to run out of steam or even deviate from the things that were working well in their early wins. They’re still getting to know Vossy, and for some, by season’s end, if they weren’t carrying an injury, some of the youngsters seemed mentally spent. Hopefully it’s something Michael Voss and his team have addressed in the off-season. Time will tell. I genuinely feel Michael Voss is a good coach. But writing this paragraph, what I’m feeling is just how incredibly difficult it would be to come in and turn the fortunes of a struggling club around. There are so many factors that are beyond his scope of control, yet one already has the sneaking suspicion that another failed season would probably see him moved on.
THE CLUB
I feel the club as a whole are still bearing the scars of two decades in the wilderness. The atmosphere at Carlton games through the first twelve rounds last year was electric. Finally some hope could be seen with a playing group you could actually take pride in for a change. To expect instant gratification in the first year of Voss’ tenure was unrealistic, but few of us really got ahead of ourselves. We all know too well how that usually works out for us, which made missing the finals yet again a little hard to take. But if you’re a Blues fan and you’re not excited right now, there has to be something very wrong with you.
We showed that our best last year could topple just about anyone, but it just couldn’t be sustained for the long haul. If I, a distant observer, albeit a mad, passionate Blue, can see there’s an issue with not being at our best for longer, surely those in the inner sanctum can see it too and have a plan in place. At least, that’s what we’re all hoping for. The discrepancy between our best and worst in season 2022 was enormous. However, that kind of erratic form is synonymous with youth and a regime change. I actually don’t know who has the role of club psychologist if such a role exists, but I don’t think I’d be going out on a limb to suggest it would now be one of the most important positions at the club. If you’re reading this and wondering what it is exactly that I’m talking about, I’ll give you an example to help illustrate my point of view. In the final game of last year against Collingwood, the Blues failed to score a goal in the first quarter and went into half time with just two on the board trailing by 19 points. In the third term, Carlton slammed on 8 goals to just 1 and lead by 4 goals at the last break. Although the Blues had their chances to score in the last quarter, they failed to kick a goal and conceded five to eventually lose by one point and it was that one point that ultimately cost them a finals berth.
Anybody watching that game saw a Jeckyll and Hyde performance. For three quarters it was indirect and unsure football, no doubt in part due to the Magpie pressure. And for one quarter they were simply unstoppable. It was night and day. That’s got to be above the shoulders, and as a Blues fan, I’m excited because I reckon you can address that. You can’t create ability where there is none, but if someone’s mind is not on the job, that’s something that can be potentially rectified.
CONCLUSION
Most pundits will agree with me when I say that surely we make finals this year. Nothing is ever guaranteed of course, but most observers can see that we have a list that is up there with the stronger clubs featuring a spine that most would envy with firepower and a midfield depth. We’re now boasting up to as many as 6 A-graders. We used to have just one in Cripps! All the ingredients are there to create a recipe for success, so all we need is somebody who knows how to cook. Hopefully, that’s our man Voss. And before you dare mention, this is not akin to that dreadful slogan the inept marketing group at Carlton came up with circa 2009 “Can you smell what we are cooking?’ The stench of failure has permeated through the air at Ikon Park since those days, but this time something just seems different. With a healthy list and healthier minds, I feel this group might achieve something special. Well, at least that’s what I want to believe, because I’m getting tired of explaining to my kids why we are a Carlton family.
Go Blues.
