Rebuilding is a word fans don’t like associated with their team.
Unless you’ve bottomed out and have no chance of contending, a rebuild means pain – not just for fans, but for players and coaches, as well. This week, David King expressed concern for the future of Sam Mitchell at Hawthorn, given the extent of the clean-out he is undertaking at the club. In short, King believes that rebuilding coaches simply don’t last. They do all the hard work and are often seen as a great way to segue to another coach who then capitalises on it.
It’s funny – he said the same thing about David Noble about 12 months ago and look how that played out. Though North Melbourne likely have a bit more pain to endure, the hard yards are done, and Alastair Clarkson is set to start their climb. Are we now seeing the beginning of it all with Mitchell at the Hawks?
When the word ‘rebuild’ is a dirty one, teams look for different avenues to stay competitive, and this is where we find the 2023 Richmond team, having bolstered an ageing midfield with two young bulls from a team they vanquished three years ago. Has it been that long, already? They’ve gone the ‘top-up’ route, which puts the club on unsteady footing.
The addition of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper to the Tigers’ midfield is designed to give them the kickstart out of the middle that they lacked at times over the past couple of seasons. The legs of the Tigers have been suspect – Trent Cotchin is in the twilight of a brilliant career, Dion Prestia is too injury-prone to be relied upon week-in and week-out, and Dusty… well, he may be Dusty, but he is not the same player he was a few years back. His 2022 was one that failed to get going at any point, and turning 32 in June, we simply cannot expect him to put this team on his back as often as he used to. Can we expect it at all?
Whilst the double injection of midfield talent into the mix should warm the hearts of Tiger fans, giving them the belief that they can take a team that was not all that far away from being a huge finals threat in 2022 and make a real run at the flag in 2023, it does not come without risk.
And it does not come without a hefty payment one that will be extracted over the next couple of seasons.
Topping up is something that can make or break a club. Geelong saw it pay off in a huge way in 2022, recruiting mature players to bolster a lineup already boasting A-Graders like Dangerfield, Selwood, and Hawkins. The previous two seasons saw them acquire Jeremy Cameron and Isaac Smith, which added to their list of experienced warriors. Of course, they also acquired Shaun Higgins and Jon Ceglar, who added very little.
When the Tigers fell in the opening round of the 2022 finals to a Brisbane Lions team, I reckon there were a few teams that breathed a long sigh of relief – Geelong amongst them. You see, the Cats were a team built to win now, as were the Tigers. They both possessed battle-hardened warriors, up for the fight. When Tom Lynch’s kick for goal was overruled by the score review system and awarded a behind, it opened the door for Geelong to physically dominate the opposition for the remainder of September. And they did.
I don’t know that they could have physically dominated the Tigers.
But for the team that got it right, and swept to the 2022 premiership as a result, there are teams that got it wrong.
Hawthorn is in the midst of paying for a top-up strategy that simply didn’t work. After their premiership era, the Hawks went on a shopping spree, bartering away draft picks to pick up players like Chad Wingard, Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara, Tom Scully, Jonathon Patton, and Jarman Impey.
With the benefit of hindsight, all except Mitchell were pretty ordinary acquisitions – a couple were horrible- and now Hawthorn finds itself in a situation where it’s desperately attempting to get the bulk of their rebuild done now, before any announcement of a Tasmanian team and whatever draft concessions they receive compromises everything.
Depending on your point of view, the Tigers may fall into either category – either they are going to do what Geelong did, and use the influx of talent to bolster their ageing stars, or they will squander their future via the draft to prop up a list that is a step off being able to compete with the best.
Richmond will not be part of the 2022 AFL Draft until pick 53, with first and second-round picks (12 and 19) as part of the deal to bring Taranto on board. They also offloaded another second-round pick (31) and their first-rounder from 2023 to secure Hopper.
When you consider that the Tigers have had just one top-ten draft pick in the last decade (Josh Gibcus… and I really like him), I reckon we’re in a situation where the Tigers simply have to be more like Geelong and nowhere near what Hawthorn has become to reap any sort of reward. If not, their pain will be ongoing.
So, what are we expecting from Taranto and Hopper?
Firstly, we don’t assess Hopper on his 2022 season. It was ruined by injury and I got the feeling he was playing out the last six games of the season like a bloke who had one foot out the door and didn’t want to injure the other one. His 2021 efforts are what we need to focus on – it was a terrific year for him in an average team. 26 touches and over six clearances per game would take the heat right off Dion Prestia to be the number-one clearance player at Punt Road. I’ve heard Hopper called the “cleanest” player in the league below his knees, and his efforts to feed players like Dusty and Shai Bolton on the outside could be of huge benefit.
As for Taranto, he is already and best and fairest winner at GWS and has the ability to be a matchwinner. He is strong over the footy, can go forward and hit the scoreboard, and tackles as well as any midfielder in the game when he is healthy. His addition means that Richmond can afford to play Dustin Martin up forward with something like an 80/20 split, giving them a true three-headed monster inside 50 without losing too much from the midfield when he does.
So, on paper, these moves look like absolute winners.
However, things on paper don’t often translate to how they play out in reality, and though the best-case scenario is brilliant, the worst-case could see Richmond hover around the middle of the table, particularly as players like Cotchin, Riewoldt, Tarrant… hell, even Dusty and Dylan Grimes walk off into the sunset in the next couple of years.
That’s no man’s land – exactly where you don’t want to be with the possibility of an expansion team on the horizon… and I won’t go there with the stupid, played-out joke you’re all sick to death of hearing.
There is no reward without risk in the AFL. There is no success without the threat of failure. Richmond and Damien Hardwick have opted to play a dangerous game and forego the rebuild in favour of an all-or-nothing approach. 2023 could be the Tigers’ last hope of obtaining a flag with this group, and given the success currently being enjoyed by the Cats, it could all be worth it…
… IF it plays out as they hope.
No pressure, Tim. No pressure, Jacob.
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