Carlton v West Coast – The Four Points
It’s always a dangerous gamble choosing to review your own team. Ideally, your side wins and you get to bask in the glory, waxing lyrical for a couple thousand words about how great they played and how awesome the players are, playing scant regard to the opposition. If they lose, however, you can find yourself in a bit of a pickle, needing to instead spend more time and energy talking about how great the opposition were, and how poorly your team played.
It is this latter situation I find myself in reader, being an avid Eagles fan who actively chose to prepare for and now write a review of their loss today to Carlton. All of this is to say that if this review comes across as being a little depressed or even angry in tone, that is just one of the reasons why.
Anyway, onto the review…
Carlton continued their winning ways under interim coach Josh Fraser, notching up their sixth victory in a row with a commanding 53-point win over West Coast at Marvel Stadium. The Blues led from start to finish, off the back of dominant midfield performances from Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps, with the end-result never truly in doubt.
The Eagles, meanwhile, were unable to continue building off the improvements they’d made before the bye and were often at a loss as to how to stop the Blues transition game. The lack of pressure at ground level in the forward half – an aspect of their game that had improved greatly in the weeks leading up to the bye – meant that Carlton was able to win the ball back quickly and control the game by simply keeping the ball out of the Eagles’ hands.
The match was largely decided in the midfield, with Carlton’s depth and experience telling against a young West Coast group missing the important talents of Tim Kelly. Harley Reid battled manfully, with 12 clearances – including nine centre clearances – headlining his 23-disposal effort, but none of his teammates were able to keep pace. Conversely, the Blues had six midfielders with 20 or more disposals (the aforementioned Cripps and Walsh, as well as Ben Ainsworth, George Hewett, Jagga Smith and Blake Acres), spreading the responsibility across a group too wide for the Eagles to match.
The Right Man for the Job?
Josh Fraser is playing a blinder. Since taking the reins, he has the Blues playing fast, attractive (winning) footy, has been able to rejuvenate the careers of players that may thought might have been over the hill (Cripps, Acres and Hewett) or needing a new environment to flourish (Walsh and Harry McKay), all the while saying that he doesn’t believe himself ready to take on the job.
Remember, this is a team which was 1-8 this season prior to him stepping in as coach. In fact, it’s worse than that. At the end of round 17, 2024, (almost two years ago exactly), the Blues were second on the ladder with 11 wins from 15 games and six points clear of the team in third place. They were coming off a preliminary final appearance the previous year and looked destined to match or even exceed that result. However, they won just two games for the remainder of the season, losing their elimination final (against eventual Premiers, Brisbane), and things just hadn’t looked right since. Between then and former coach Michael Voss getting the sack after round nine this year, the Blues won just 12 games from their last 41.
Clearly something was amiss.
Enter Josh Fraser.
In the last six weeks, the Blues have become the best transition team in the comp, moving the ball from inside defensive 50 and scoring at a greater rate than anyone else. Today was no exception, scoring 44 points from defensive 50 chains. This is in clear contrast to what they were producing under Michael Voss, with his gameplan seemingly more centred around clearances and contested possessions, winning the ball from stoppages rather than forcing the opposition into turnovers and counterattacking. That Fraser has been able to not just change the gameplan on the fly but convince the players that his way would work and get them to buy into it is, frankly, remarkable. On the basis of that alone, he deserves a head coaching job.
Of course, it must also be acknowledged that, based on their list profile and the experience within their playing group, this team should be playing finals consistently. Their current form suggests they can qualify for the wildcard round, and if they make it there, will give their opponent an almighty headache. If Fraser was to take them that far and (gasp!) even further, it would take a brave/stupid board to overlook him for the vacant role.
Six wins on the trot is hard to ignore – particularly given what had occurred prior to the six wins – but the Blues have been down this road before. Will it be a case of once bitten, twice shy, or is Josh Fraser the right man for the job? Time, as always, will tell.
Too Many Cooks?
In Chris ‘Casper’ Kelly’s surreal video from 2014, titled ‘Too Many Cooks’, an argument was posited that too many cooks could spoil the broth. The idea is that if too many people are entrusted with the responsibility of one task, it can lead to a dilution of quality – the end-result will be that much worse because too many people were involved. What this idea fails to take into account, though, is that in the modern AFL, the spreading of responsibility is actually a good thing.
Take, for example, Carlton’s midfield depth. While only seven players attended a centre bounce for the Blues today, it could be argued that their true midfield spreads well beyond this. Players like Acres, Adam Cerra, Matt Cottrell and Will Hayward are all capable of being added to the midfield group and having a meaningful impact, while youngsters like Jack Ison, Talor Byrne and Billy Wilson could do so in years to come. The effect of this depth was in evidence in today’s match as Carlton put West Coast to the sword.
Having greater midfield depth than your opponent, however, doesn’t mean that all your players run further or faster than their opposition. What it does mean is that you can cycle more players through stoppages and trust that they know how to be dangerous and how to impact the game, offensively or defensively. Carlton comprehensively won the stoppage clearance battle, 34-20, with a dozen different players credited with at least one stoppage clearance. From this source, Carlton was able to take control of the game.
The Blues finished the game with 144 more disposals than West Coast, with a large majority of these being uncontested. Being able to win the ball is one thing but being able to both find space and then find your teammate in space is another thing entirely (or, I guess, two things). It was something that Carlton was able to do on a consistent basis today, finishing with an eye-watering 133 marks – 13 contested – and 20 marks inside 50. Far too often, West Coast players were guilty of getting dragged into no-man’s land – too far from the ball that you cannot impact the play, but close enough to the ball that you can trick yourself into thinking you have a chance – while Carlton players would hold the space and become an offensive option.
Here is where the midfield depth becomes important. Having as many players as possible who are able to find space and use the ball effectively is of the utmost importance. Countless times today, West Coast had an out option but lacked the skill or confidence to find them; Carlton barely missed. Whether it was Ben Ainsworth, Cripps, Walsh, Hewett, Acres, Smith, Nic Newman, Lachie Cowan or anyone else, the Blues had the skills, confidence and depth to find the option.
The Cost of Inexperience
West Coast is, on average, the youngest and least experienced team in the comp. So, of course, against a team who are two years and 40 games more experienced per player, a result like today’s should not be a surprise. And yet, as a fan, I find myself very disappointed.
Is it because I thought that they were truly a chance of winning today? Not really. If truth be told, I thought even a good performance was likely to find the Eagles about two goals adrift. So why am I disappointed? I think it’s because I thought (maybe hoped) that performances like this were behind us. That against a side like Carlton, the game wouldn’t be effectively over at half time. If this was Fremantle or Sydney or Geelong or Brisbane – one of the true contenders for the flag – then sure, we’re at least 10 goals behind them, but against a side that – at least to this point in the season – is middle of the table? We ought to be a lot closer.
In the seven games leading up to the bye, the Eagles won two and lost five. Of those five losses, it could be argued that four were winnable. Games against Richmond, Collingwood, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne all had moments – particularly late – where the Eagles could have snatched a win. And honestly, with another 12 months growth into some of the younger players, I think it’s fair to expect that they do win those games.
Their pressure rating was up, a noticeable game style was beginning to evolve, and for the first time since the end of 2021, I noticed West Coast supporters speaking with a hint of optimism. Now, none of them were speaking of finals, or even winning, but instead speaking of competition. Of being competitive week-in and week-out. Of getting to three-quarter time and thinking “hey, we’re really in with a shot, here.”. Of forcing good sides to have to play really well to try and win.
Instead, we got beaten by the style of footy we should have expected Carlton to play. Aside from about 15 minutes in the third quarter, the players – and possibly coaches – seemed incapable of forcing the Blues into plan B. The lack of pressure in the forward half of the ground harkened back to the worst part of the first seven games this season, where teams were able to almost walk the ball out of our forward 50. What makes this more frustrating is that we have evidence that this forward half pressure work! Hell, it’s what our game plan is based on. Over the five games leading into today, the Eagles ranked number one for time in forward half and were also second-best for limiting teams scoring off turnover and transition. Clearly, these fell off today.
Whether the Eagles can halt this drop and return to their form of the last seven matches pre-bye will be an interesting story for the remainder of the 2026 season. If they do, they’ll probably end the year with six or seven wins and could use it as a platform to build into 2027. If they don’t, some tough questions will need to be asked.
Does Pressure Create Diamonds?
It’s often said pressure makes diamonds. Whether this is true, a cursory google search will tell you is up for debate. Nevertheless, the underlying principle – high stress situations build resilience and creates better things – remains valid. Earlier in this piece, I wrote about Carlton’s record in the 41 games leading up to Voss’s sacking. In the AFL media bubble that is Melbourne, and with Carlton boasting the history and membership that it does (and talkback radio still existing), and with its list suggesting that finals should be an inevitability, it’s doubtful whether any club in Australia has been under as much pressure as the Blues at that time.
Just six games later, and the Blues players look like they’ve lost the collective weight of a medium-sized island nation. And while Cripps and Walsh (and others) have all found a new lease on life under Fraser, the one who really impressed me today was Harry McKay.
When I saw McKay play his first few seasons – alongside former running mate Charlie Curnow – I thought he’d be Curnow’s perfect foil. The Scott Lucas to Curnow’s Matthew Lloyd, a player capable of being the best player in the forward line, but happy to roam up the ground and play second-fiddle to the other generational talent. And for three years, that was the case, with the duo sharing three Coleman medals in three seasons (McKay won in 2021, Curnow won in both 2022 and 2023). However, like their team, their performances in the last two years dropped away, seeing Curnow get traded to Sydney in last season’s trade period.
Today, though, was a return to the best of Harry McKay. He had 19 disposals, kicked three goals, and three clearances, pulling double-duty as a chop-out ruckman (something he has done consistently in the last six games). He covered the ground beautifully, stayed active all game long and, it must be said, looked happier than I have ever seen him. In a time when his team truly needs him, McKay is standing tall and delivering when it matters.
At the other end of the ground, for the Eagles, is Jake Waterman. If we take goals and behinds out of it, he is having a year which should see him as a lock for the All-Australian team. Unfortunately, it’s hard to take goals and behinds out of it, because, you know, he’s a full-forward! His record for 2026 stands now at 31.40. Prior to the start of this season, he had kicked 149 goals, 79 behinds, with an accuracy of 65.3%. Using that percentage as a guide across his 71 scoring shots for 2026, should have seen him kick 46 goals. That total would have him clearly in front in the Coleman, and on track for about 70 goals for the year.
Coupled with some of his other stats – second for total shots on goal, and average marks on the lead, sixth for average marks inside 50 and top 10 for score involvements – it indicates a guy having his best season. Unfortunately, he is missing a lot of shots, and it is hurting his team. As a fan, I love that he is still competing and working to positively impact the game – a lot of lesser players would drop their head and not want the ball kicked anywhere near them – but if he cannot get this issue sorted, he is going to cost the team, and himself, more wins in the future.
Stray Shots
- I made mention of the Eagles improved form prior to the bye. I wonder whether the quality of their opponents had anything to do with it. The average ladder position of their opponents in the first seven games was 7.6, while in the seven games leading into the bye it was 12.9.
- After the bye (including today), it’s 8.8. This will be the most important stretch of matches in Andrew McQualter’s reign as West Coast coach. If they do well, he could have the job for a long time. If not, he will be under a lot of pressure before next season.
- The Blues have been the second-best team over the last five weeks – behind only Fremantle. If they keep form up for the rest of the season, the sky is the limit for this group.
- I loved the game of Lachie Cowan today. He just seemed to have the happy knack of finding himself where the ball was in the Eagles forward half. I also like the look of someone who has one full arm and leg – on one side of his body – tattooed, as I’m silly and think it must make you a bit lop-sided.
- Talor Byrne looks like your film character who’s a bit chubby but is very lovable. I wanted to hate him today, but with every goal I loved him just a little bit more. I really want to grab him, put him in a headlock and give him a noogie.
- I thought Marc Pittonet won the ruck battle against Bailey Williams today. Yes, Williams won a lot of hit-outs, but Pittonet had more positive impact on his team. Williams, meanwhile, had one of those games he is prone to – almost every tap seemed to find a Carlton player ready to burst away from stoppage.
- As an Eagles fan, I reckon I’ve seen enough of Ryan Maric. If I was an opposition fan, though, I’d be more than happy if the Eagles kept selecting him.
- Jagga Smith probably closed the book on the Rising Star award with today’s performance. I love Duursma and believe he’ll probably be a better player, but Smith was far better today and that goal on the final siren was almost too perfect.
- Is that Ben Ainsworth’s best game ever?
- Harry Dean is a serious talent. He wore Waterman like a glove today and was just about the best defender on the field – a fair effort for an 18-year-old key defender playing his 13th game. The Blues have a potential great here.
- I also liked the game of Rhett Bazzo down back for the Eagles. I thought he provided some important spoils and very good pressure, and if he and Reuben Ginbey can form a good combination, could be an integral part of the Eagles back six for years to come.
