There’s a certain romance attached to the idea of Nathan Buckley becoming the inaugural coach of Tasmania’s AFL side. Big name. Big presence. Instantly commands attention. On the surface, it makes perfect sense. If you’re launching a brand-new club into the AFL, why not bring in a figure with star power, credibility, and experience at the highest level?
But once you push past the headline appeal, the conversation becomes far more complicated. In fact, it starts to look like a genuine risk.
Buckley’s coaching career at Collingwood tells a story that depends heavily on what you choose to focus on. If you zoom in on 2018, you see a coach who came within a kick of winning a premiership. That run to the Grand Final was remarkable, built on a system that maximised effort, defensive pressure, and belief. It proved Buckley could build a team capable of competing on the biggest stage.
The problem is that 2018 stands out because it wasn’t the norm.
Across his tenure, Collingwood struggled with consistency. There were periods where the team looked like a genuine contender, followed by stretches where they dropped off significantly. That inconsistency is a major concern when you’re talking about an expansion club. Tasmania won’t have the luxury of time or patience that a club like Collingwood can lean on. A new team needs stability from day one, not a rollercoaster.
For an established club, inconsistency is frustrating. For a new club, it can be damaging.
Then there’s the issue of culture, which is arguably even more important than wins and losses in the early years of a club’s life. Buckley’s time at Collingwood wasn’t just defined by what happened on the field. The club went through a period of intense scrutiny regarding its internal culture, culminating in the Do Better Report. While responsibility for that situation sits across multiple levels of the organisation, Buckley was the senior coach during that era.
That matters.
Tasmania’s AFL team will enter the competition under a microscope. There will be enormous public interest, expectation, and pressure to get things right. The first coach won’t just be responsible for tactics and team selection. They will set the tone for the entire organisation. Culture, values, identity. Everything flows from that first appointment.
Any hint of baggage, whether fair or not, risks becoming a distraction. And distraction is the last thing a new club needs.
There’s also the question of how Buckley fits into the modern game. Since stepping away from coaching, he has been outstanding in media roles. His analysis is sharp, insightful, and often ahead of the curve. He clearly understands the game at a deep level.
But understanding the game and coaching it are very different challenges.
The AFL has continued to evolve rapidly in recent years. Game styles, player management, and club structures have all shifted. Coaching an expansion side requires more than tactical knowledge. It demands adaptability, innovation, and a willingness to build from the ground up in an environment that will be constantly changing.
That brings us to the biggest concern of all: the reality of building a club from scratch.
Tasmania isn’t inheriting a list. It isn’t tweaking an existing system. It isn’t trying to squeeze one more premiership out of a veteran group. It is starting from zero.
That means assembling a playing list largely made up of young, developing talent. It means creating pathways, structures, and systems that don’t yet exist. It means losing games. A lot of them, especially early on.
Expansion clubs historically struggle. That’s not pessimism, it’s reality. The early years of Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney showed just how tough this phase can be. Heavy losses, constant scrutiny, and the challenge of building belief in a group that is still finding its identity.
Not every coach is suited to that environment.
Buckley walked into a powerhouse club with established systems, strong resources, and a clearly defined identity. He never really left that safety net. Tasmania will be the opposite. It will require patience, resilience, and a long-term vision that goes beyond immediate results. The ideal coach for that situation is someone who thrives on development, embraces the grind, and is comfortable playing the long game.
There’s no clear evidence from Buckley’s coaching career that this is his strength.
Another factor that shouldn’t be underestimated is connection. Tasmania’s AFL team represents more than just a football club. It represents a state that has fought for decades to be included at the highest level. There is pride, emotion, and a deep sense of ownership tied to this team before it has even played a game.
The first coach becomes a central figure in that story.
They need to connect with the community, understand the significance of the role, and embrace what it means to represent Tasmania. This isn’t just about coaching a team. It’s about helping to build something that people feel belongs to them.
Buckley, for all his qualities, feels like an external appointment. A high-profile name brought in from outside. That doesn’t automatically make him the wrong choice, but it does raise questions about fit and connection.
Tasmania has an opportunity to do something unique. To build a club that reflects its identity, its people, and its football culture. The first coach will play a massive role in shaping that.
Which is why this decision carries so much weight.
None of this is to suggest that Buckley would fail. He is clearly capable, intelligent, and driven. He has proven he can coach at the highest level and command respect from players. But appointing him would be a gamble, and not a small one.
Tasmania doesn’t need a headline appointment. It needs the right appointment.
It needs a coach who understands development, who can build culture from the ground up, and who is prepared for the long, difficult road that comes with starting a club from scratch. It needs someone who values system over spotlight and is willing to grow with the team over time.
Because if Tasmania gets this decision wrong, the consequences won’t be short term.
The first coach sets the tone. They shape the identity. They influence how the club is perceived both internally and externally. A misstep here could take years to recover from.
For a club that has waited so long just to exist, that’s a risk that simply cannot be ignored.
You can find more from Dave on his own substack, It’s a Dave Thing.
