ROUND NINE
Just when you think the AFL might have a week where they don’t embarrass themselves, the last 24-48 hours happen. Moreover, you think a player won’t do something silly, leave it to Willie, or maybe it’s Chief Dilly. Regardless, there’s lots to look forward to this weekend, and maybe a few things not to tune into.
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Nine.
The Guarantee
Despite the disparity of recent form between the two clubs, the Giants will again ransack Alphabet (GMHBA) Stadium and beat Geelong where no one else can. The Giants have won their last four games in Geelong. The ground seems to suit the orange tsunami, and how they play. Toby Greene typically plays well in these contests as well.
I can make a strong case for the Cats to win, and, arguably, they probably should. But this is a trend that surpasses simple form metrics now. Until they can beat the Giants in Geelong again, the Giants go into these contests as favourites.
Also, it’s time for the AFL to come out and say there are double standards in how they determine who should be fined and punished. This furore with Willie Rioli has not been a good look for the AFL. And, rather than dealing with that, Chief Dilly (Andrew Dillon) was more annoyed at the AFL looking inept but not knowing about these issues than dealing with it. Mate, perhaps the clubs don’t trust your administration to do anything about it, which is why they dealt with it between each other.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
Hokball continues their losing run against the Dees – which stretches back to 2018, so I’ve been told. On paper and on form, the Hawks should win this in a canter. But, bogey sides and losing streaks can do funny things, even to the best teams. The Hawks want to entrench themselves in the top 4, which a win will do. But can the Dees, who need a positive headline after more speculation about the future of Clayton Oliver this week, defy logic and continue their dominance over the Hawks (who are resting Tom Barrass)?
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
I dunno if they are genuine outsiders and would be unexpected winners, but on their rare venture to the home of football, the MCG, I give the Saints a really good chance at knocking off the Blues on Friday Night, and confining Richmond Gorringe to further pain.
The Blues, aside from their shock win against the Cats, look shot. They lack confidence, they lack spark, and aside from George Hewett, they don’t really look completely invested. For them to salvage anything this year, they need to inherit and adopt some of coach Michael Voss’ traits of ruthless aggression, playing for each other, pushing through adversity, and the like.
The Saints could almost end the Blues season on Friday Night … like they did in 2024.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
That Richmond v West Coast is the closest game of the round, and, when all is said and done, it proves to be the game of the round. Two terrible teams, both eyeing this fixture as a chance to get a win. They should be training the house down this week and setting themselves up to win this game.
Richmond has had a shorter rebuild to this point, and already looks much better than the Eagles. If the Eagles are gonna win a game this year, they need to get themselves up for a contest like this. Galvanise the team as they travel across the Nullabor to Melbourne, and let coach Andrew McQualter create a plan to beat his former side.
I low-key think this could be a fun watch. I’m probably wrong, and somewhat crazy because let’s be real, will anyone actually watch this?
Essential Result (Must Win)
The Swans need this win. After getting one over on their cross-town rivals last week, the Swans will look to consolidate where they sit in season 2025. They are currently two wins outside the eight, but can find themselves within touching distance with a win. Getting back-to-back wins will do wonders for this side. They are supremely talented, but look devoid of confidence … I know it’s just against Essendon, but they’ve traded many close games in recent years. It’d set the Swans up very nicely.
For the Bombers, a win gets them right in the top 8 mix. And if they’re to prove they are the real deal, then they win this on Saturday at Superhero Stadium in the Docklands precinct.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
Tom de Koning. Why does TDK have the most at stake over Ken Hinkley and others? Simply put, does TDK monster his potential new teammates, or does he show he’s a team player by not going at 100%, as he looks ahead to a $1.7 million dollar pay day?
Seriously, though, the Blues have struggled at various times. The young ruck has tried to put the team on his shoulders while his more accomplished teammates falter. He faces a big test up against Rowan Marshall. The player who wins this battle – both ruck work and around the ground – will go a long way to determining the game. So, Tom, are you worth the offered pay packet? Show us what you’ve got on Friday Night.
Also, as mentioned above, we don’t know who or what Port Adelaide is this year. Good one week, frauds the next, and even non-existent some weeks. We’ve seen how they play off emotion. If they are going to salvage their season, they need to win the Showdown and get some momentum into their season. A failure here is bad; if their midfield crumbles again, then it might just be that Josh Carr, their midfield coach, is not in fact the right man for the job. Where does the Power go then, if he cannot get the players to work in the system or rise to the occasion? And the Crows have been pretty solid. They need a win to keep their momentum going!
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
Gold Coast v the Dogs. It’ll be fun up North. The Suns love their second home in Darwin and play the conditions incredibly well. But they face a Dogs team who are in white-hot form, who I consider Premiership favourites right now.
The Suns were embarrassed in the Pineapple Grapple (Queensland derby) last weekend. They lacked intensity and fight. If they show up like that again this week, the Dogs will give them an all-time pasting. We have seen progress from the Suns this year, but this is the game … this is where we learn if they have started to mature. After a good start to the year, they’ve dropped two of their last three. This is where they normally collapse in a season. So, Gold Coast, what’s it gonna be in 2025? Proof that you are perpetually set for mid-table, or prove that you can hang with the big dogs?
I expect Dimma will get them up for this contest. And I’ll tip the Dogs, just because I trust them more. The Suns have to earn that right in a game like this. If conditions are decent, I expect a fairly free-flowing and high-scoring advertisement for our great game.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
I’m gonna give some love to the umpires here. It’s a hard game to umpire, and it’s easy for us in our lounge rooms, with the benefit of slow-motion replays to lambast the umpires for their ineptness. I can’t believe I’m writing this as I love a good “BOOOOOOO” to the umpires when it doesn’t go my teams’ way, but they umpire a game that has layers of rules, many of which are open to interpretation, dealing with 10’s of thousands of parochial fans each week.
Case in point, the Bobby Hill run-down almost tackle last week. It looked incredible. Live, I thought Mannagh was done. And, there’s part of me that thinks we should reward those tackles. But that adds grey to the tripping rule. That said, with 50-60k Pies fans screaming “BAAAALLLLLLLL!” it took a brave umpire to own his decision in the face of that. Regardless of whether it was right or wrong (many former umpires have said it was correct, and I haven’t seen any say it was wrong), I love the fact that the umpire wasn’t swayed by the crowd noise and owned his decision. We want to see more of that from the field umpires, and definitely from the goal umpires.
I’m backing the umpires in to have a weekend where we don’t spend multiple days debating decisions and celebrate them for the job that they do.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
David King. Last Saturday Night, he made a goose of himself, yet again, when he threw all sense of professionalism out the window and was interviewing Geelong players post-game, basically asking if they thought the umpires won them the game. I mean, he wasn’t the only one. Eddie McGuire, this week, even said the umpire telling Jack Crisp to kick over the mark was a distraction and therefore the direct reason Crisp missed and Collingwood lost. So, for Kingy, less of the over-the-top, laptop aesthetic and flip-flopping opinion on clubs, and more focus on the good things in the game.
Anyway, annoyance and Cats bias aside, it’s a big weekend for the Freo Dockers and their beleaguered coach (albeit basically self-inflicted) Justin Longmuir. The Pies are allowing some of their senior citizens to remain at home, to be in bed by 9pm (relax Pies fans, it’s called a joke, and one I’ve made about Geelong players repeatedly in recent seasons), and it opens the door for the Dockers.
Should they win? Probably. Will they win? Doubtful. However, they need to show some level of life and ability to play football if they are going to earn any semblance of respect back. A failure to show any heart, and potentially a failure to win, could see JL given his marching orders as soon as Friday morning … with a four-week payout thanks to his renegotiated deal.
The Don (player of the round)
Any of the Brisbane midfielders and high half-forwards. They could fill their boots on Sunday and kick a big score against North. Let’s lock in Zac Bailey for 25+ disposals and four goals.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
The times I’ve seen him play, I’ve been a big fan of Cooper Simpson. I hope, with his return to the Dockers line-up on Thursday Night, that he can dominate. He was a highly rated junior who hadn’t had a lot of opportunity as yet. So, now he gets his chance against the Pies, on his home deck, to lead his side to victory.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
Toby Greene and Patrick Dangerfield. Both to kick 3+ goals. To lead from the front. The one who has the most impact on the game wins this for their side. And it’ll be fun to watch.
The Winners (currently on 45; last week 5)
Collingwood
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Sydney
Western Bulldogs
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Greater Western Sydney
Brisbane Lions
Look after your mums this weekend and thank them for being great people.
These predictions were made with all team lists available and a game late – that’s on me. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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