If the season were represented by a game of footy, we’d be heading into time-on in the last quarter right about now.
Pretenders have fallen away, but there are still nine attempting to fit into the remaining eight finals places. Peter Monagle runs you through Round 24.
Escape from the Adelaide Oval – Tom ‘Snake Plissken’ Hickey
There is an image of Tom Hickey resembling that of ‘Snake Plissken’ as he left the ground on Saturday night at Adelaide Oval. With the two goal umpires behind Tom double-checking the scores, a cacophony of angry howls from the Adelaide faithful filled the air. Big Tom had blood streaming down his face from a cut above an eye and a cheeky grin on his face, knowing the Swans had dodged a mighty bullet, however, his eyes were darting everywhere searching for a safe exit to leave the field of battle without being lynched by the angry mob.
The Perfect Storm – 1 minute and 11 seconds left to play.
After a weekend (before last weekend) of very dodgy boundary umpire calls, and a game being decided by a goal umpire’s dubious soft call, it would be hard to fathom that things could get worse in the auxiliary umpiring department, but they did, with one minute and 11 seconds left in the game between the Crows and the Swans.
Ben Keays’ clearly kicked a goal that was adjudged a point by a now-unemployed goal umpire. If the correct call had been made, then the Crows would have been four points in front and possibly on their way to September action. Possibly, possibly not? A lot has happened in the last 71 seconds of an AFL matches previously, and nobody can say with any clarity what would have happened in the last 71 seconds of this match. Especially where the hunter suddenly becomes the hunted.
I am very sympathetic to a point with the Adelaide cause, and if I followed the Crows, I would be seeking more than a mere pampered Gil apology as this game was compromised. I’ll rephrase that, the supporters of EVERY CLUB deserve more than a mere pampered Gil apology.
On the other hand, I am not impressed with the media surrounding this incident for the correct decision would not have guaranteed the Crows a victory, nor a place in the finals. The disrespect shown to the West Coast Eagles by all the media outlets is unbelievable, with most declaring the Crows victory over them a fait accompli. No victory in the AFL is guaranteed, and that was franked by the Eagles beating the Bulldogs last weekend.
Did Gil, the AFL and/or the ARC, not learn anything from the Melbourne v Carlton match?
Channel 7HD and Foxtel 4k Ultra HD
Channel 7HD and Foxtel 4K Ultra HD both boast the highest definition as part of their promotions for the viewing audiences in their commercials, but the working reality is something different. You can literally see the stitching on the footy as it narrowly misses the goal post in Foxtel’s commercial, but when it comes to replaying goals for the ARC, the quality of the image is diminished, or blurry, or taken from inadequate camera angles, as witnessed in both the Carlton v Melbourne game, and the Adelaide v Sydney game.
Hats off to the guy in the crowd who took the most comprehensive footage of the whole incident – give the man a job at Channel 7 or Foxtel.
Who Made Who
Everything hypothetical that has been bandied about since 10pm last Saturday night is just that now, hypothetical. In the cold, harsh light of day, rightly or wrongly, the season is now reduced to just nine teams left in the hunt for September action with five minutes left in the season.
So, let’s get started.
In or out? The GWS or the Western Bulldogs?
Come late Sunday night only one team will be celebrating while the other team will be preparing for Mad Monday as their season has come to an end. There is always a heartbreak story in the last round of every season.
Western Bulldogs
Geelong have already stated they will be putting many key players on ice this weekend for their clash at home against the Bulldogs. On paper at least, that would make the Bullies the favoured team, but eh, this team got beaten up by the Eagles last weekend, so nothing with the Doggies is a certainty.
Having won just one of their last four matches suggests there is something amiss at the Kennel. For a team that most had challenging for at least a Preliminary Final this year, it disappoints they now find themselves in a shootout for the eighth spot. The Doggies are sadly out of form, and it is lucky for them Geelong will be fielding basically a reserves squad on the weekend. Having said that, tipping the Dogs to win anything this season has been fraught with danger.
Greater Western Sydney
At about 9pm on Sunday night Adam Kingsley and his men will be hoping there is a BIG BIG sound coming out of Marvel Stadium. If they win, they are in, regardless of the Doggies result.
While the Dogs seem to be on the ‘fritz’, the Giants are at the other end of the spectrum and are exceeding all expectations. Adam Kingsley and his Toby Greene (who must be All-Australian Captain this year) lead men have had a ‘never surrender’ attitude all year and it has carried them to the brink of September action. Their win against the Bombers last weekend was surreal and coming of age for this group of players.
As brave as the Giants have been this year, they face a rampant Blues side who won’t want a slip-up with their date with finals destiny. However, if the Giants are within a kick or two of the Blues with a few minutes left don’t be surprised if they dig deep into their ‘never surrender’ well once more and get over the line.
The sentimental side of me supports the underdog and wants the Giants in September action.
A Home Final on the Line – Saints and Swans
Owen the Saints
I dip my lid to Ross Lyon and his men from Moorabbin as they have proven nearly critic and armchair expert wrong as they go marching into the heat of September. The only question which remains unanswered is whether that game is in Melbourne or in Sydney?
The Saints have had a tricky draw for the last month or so, and in that time, they have mastered a new, very polished game plan, to wit they have never shown before. Ross Lyon is renowned for his defensive coaching skills, but ‘Ross Mark II’ has added a very impressive offensive scoring skillset to his playing list late in the season.
Do they beat Brisbane at the Gabba? It is a big ask for any team, however, the Saints seem to have the right balance of defence and run to at least challenge the Lions on their home turf. Win and the Saints are guaranteed a home final.
Three Quarter Swans
There is a disharmony amongst many Swans supporters with the negative coaching style of John Longmore, especially when defending healthy leads in last quarters. In the last round of 2022, a Dan Hanneberry-inspired Saints nearly powered over the top of the Swans in the last quarter. The Swans held on and finished in the top 4, but it was the beginning of ‘the Swans are gettable in the last quarter’ form line which has dogged them for all of 2023.
In at least five games this year Sydney were in winning positions at three-quarter time but capitulated in the last quarter. The Power and the Giants did not let the Swans off the hook, while narrow, last-minute wins over the Kangaroos and the Crows were surrounded in controversy, and then there was draw with the Cats in a truly bizarre last quarter.
Call it a gut feeling, but the Swans’ game against the Dees will go down to the wire with some controversy surrounding the result. The flow-on effect of the result will impact the make-up of the top 4, as well as the Saints, the Giants, and the Doggies, and will create another media storm. Controversy just follows some clubs.
Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place – the Baggers
The Baggers can’t go up and they can’t lose the opportunity of a home final. Do they risk losing momentum by resting players, or do they go all in?
The brains trust at Carlton will be more than aware that come the Elimination Final form means nothing if they lose it. It is expected Carlton will win in the first week of the finals, but strange things happen to teams in the early weeks of September. The coaching staff at Carlton are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t if they do come unstuck in the Elimination Final.
The mantra, ‘winning form is good form’, will most likely apply for the last game of the season, but even at full strength, if the Baggers have one eye on the Elimination Final and not on the Giants, then an upset could occur. The Blues need to play this game smart as they could well be facing the Giants again the first week of the finals.
Are the Colliwobbles Real?
Collingwood need a strong, confidence-building win before the finals. The Pies should easily account for an Essendon side that just wants the season to end, and finish atop the ladder for season 2023.
Injuries to marquee players have hurt the Pies badly since the bye, and their form line leading into the last round is average at best. I don’t buy the bull that says injuries don’t hurt a team. Take the best three or four players out of any team and watch them struggle. Collingwood are no different to any other club in that respect, but what holds them apart from any other club this year is they secured enough wins earlier in the season to allow them the luxury for both the chance to cope with late-season injuries and a late-season form slump.
Unless the Bombers have the greatest form reversal of all time the Pies will finish on top of the ladder and will be duly rewarded with two home finals.
Fly McCrae has shown he is no fool as a coach and he will present a Collingwood team into September in tip-top shape and as the team most likely to win the Premiership.
Wavering, but no wobbles, just yet.
Brissy-Shakes
The Lions have been shaky around this time of the year for a few years now, but this year feels different, or does it? The Lions have the most to lose this weekend out of any of the teams jockeying for positions on the September starting grid.
Winning for the Lions this weekend is a MUST. A win will guarantee them their best chance in September since 2004 (I know they lost, but they made the dance), with two home finals at their precious Gabbatoir. Lose and a trip to the City of Churches, or even worse, a trip to the dreaded MCG, might be on the cards.
An in-form, rejuvenated St Kilda, with a new running offensive game style, will test the nerve of the Brisbane Lions. This game is the MUST WATCH match of the round as both teams are playing for the right to host home finals.
The Power
Port Adelaide are under the radar of most pundits as they quietly slip into September. It probably helps that all the noise out of Adelaide has come from their cross-town rival in the last week. By game time Sunday, the Power will know whether they can finish second on the AFL ladder with Brisbane’s fate being decided the day before (wouldn’t it be exciting if all these games were played at the same time?).
Regardless of the Brisbane result, the Power have everything to play for this weekend as they are a confidence team, and they need to maintain form. The Power have now won two games in a row again after losing four matches on the trot ending their thirteen-game winning streak.
Continuous winning form is vitally important for the Power.
Front or Back Door for the Dees
Melbourne’s game time of 3:20pm on Sunday is the best evidence yet that all teams in finals contention should play their games at the same time. The Demons, by virtue of playing after the Lions and the Power, can almost self-determine where they finish on the ladder. Depending on other results they can either go all out to finish second and two home finals, or rest players and backdoor two home finals.
It is a folly by the AFL to not schedule all three games involving the Lions, Power, and Demons at the same time on the Saturday night to ensure no team has a decided advantage. Given the AFL maintains flexibility for the round 24 draw, it is a strange decision not to have these three games played at the same time. The Demons have, to a certain extent, an advantage over the Lions and the Power. It is not the Dees fault that this inequity in the draw has occurred.
It would be foolhardy to think for one instance that Melbourne would not want two home finals at the MCG to avoid September travel.
As stated earlier, my gut feeling is the Sydney Swans v Melbourne game will end in some form of a controversial result – stay tuned.
The Rest
Essendon
Next year? Perhaps? Maybe? Hopefully?
A good season by the Bombers was brought undone by just one game of football. Losing is part of any competitive sport, but losing as the Bombers did last weekend is unacceptable. Most Bombers supporters who I spoke to this week are not overly disappointed they didn’t make the finals, but rather they are disappointed in how they are finishing off the year. Put up a decent fight against the Pies and give your fans something positive for the off-season.
Geelong
The reigning champs put up a classy fight until their ageing and tiring legs got the better of them. Well played.
Richmond
The Tigers are the most intriguing team heading into the off-season with no coach in place and the retirement of several champion players.
Do the Tigers stagnate for a couple of years in the AFL’s equivalent of purgatory, ninth to fourteenth spot on the ladder, or do they drop off completely, or are they capable of rebuilding on the go? The changing of the guard at Tigerland will be a fascinating watch over the summer.
Adelaide
Adelaide have been an above-average team this year that should have won more games. The Swans game wasn’t the only game that cost them dearly this year. Close, or unexpected losses, have seen the Crows lose four or five games they should have won, or were expected to win – ouch!
Fremantle
The year that got away Dockers.
Gold Coast
Damian Hardwick has a harder job on his hands than most pundits are predicting in taking the Suns to the promised land. The Messiah has taken on a highly talented flock of players, who for all their promise, have failed to deliver time after time.
Dimma only needs to look at the loss to the Blues to see how hard the path ahead is.
First Quarter – a highly talented cohesive unit who can take it up to anyone.
Second Quarter – a selfish set of individuals who can’t handle pressure.
Third Quarter – a team capable of playing dour football but not able to counter-attack.
Fourth Quarter – all the above in one quarter of football.
Hawthorn
Sam Mitchell and James Sicily have shown the football world what the future for the Hawks looks like. Now they need to do the hard bit and repeat and improve next year.
West Coast Eagles
One win makes a world of difference. I would rather follow a team that rates winning games of football higher than any supposed benefit from finishing last.
North Melbourne
Enjoy Harley Reid. For the sake of your supporters, it is to be hoped he lives up to all the hype.
