Given the seasons of the Swans and Tigers to this point, it almost seems crazy to ponder that the winner of their clash to open Round 17 will be looking like a real chance to play finals.
Both clubs sit on 26 points, a game and a half behind the Bombers and Crows, who sit in seventh and eighth and play each other on Saturday. In between these four teams sit four other September hopefuls – Geelong, GWS, Freo, and Gold Coast. Whichever of the Tigers and Swans walks away as victors this week will still have to work their way through those teams to feature in finals, but it is all but certain that the loser of this Thursday night’s clash can kiss their season goodbye.
So, it’s been a while since we did an extended preview. Maybe it’s time I pull my finger out?
THE CHANGES
SYDNEY IN – Lance Franklin, Tom McCartin
SYDNEY OUT – Joel Amartey, Aaron Francis, Ryan Clarke (last week’s sub)
RICHMOND IN – Dion Prestia, Jacob Bauer (debut), Sam Banks (debut), Dustin Martin
RICHMOND OUT – Jack Ross, Samson Ryan, Noah Cumberland, Judson Clarke
Talk about bringing some big names back into the mix – two of the highest profile players of the last decade… perhaps longer, have re-entered the fray for this do-or-die tussle.
Unless the Swans make the finals, this is likely to be the last time we get to see Buddy Franklin at the MCG. Remember the runs down the wing? Remember him vaulting over the fallen Collingwood player and goaling from the edge of the centre square? Good times, but we won’t see any of that this week.
The Swans cost themselves two points last week with their wayward kicking in the first quarter and are looking for some reliability in front of goal, but is Buddy the right bloke to provide it? He’s running at 48% accuracy.
There is perhaps no bigger name in the history of Richmond Football Club than Dustin Martin. Settle down… I said “perhaps”.
A Brownlow and three Norm Smith Medals… this is a combination that may never be surpassed and though Dusty is no the same player he was a few years back, he can still pack a potent punch. After a week off with the flu, expect him to relish being back in front of the rabid yellow and black army.
But the other additions might be more important than either of the aforementioned names, believe it or not.
Tom McCartin finally gives the Swans a lockdown key defender. Seriously, they had Aaron Francis playing the role in the absence of just about every other option there, for a while. And for the Tigers, the return of Dion Prestia gives them a legitimate three-headed monster in the middle, as he combined with Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper.
Taranto felt the pinch last week, delivering his worst outing as a Tiger. Prestia lightens the load.
THE MATCHUPS
NOAH BALTA V LANCE FRANKLIN
This one will be interesting. Balta has all the physical tools to handle Franklin, but some of his decision-making makes me want to take him out behind the changerooms and shoot him. If there was ever a player who needs to be told to play within his limitations, it is Balta. There were three occasions last week when his overexcited efforts in defence turned the ball over and led directly to Brisbane goals.
You cannot afford to do that against Buddy, no matter how tempting it may be to run off him and attempt to punish him.
Franklin won’t be out-muscling Balta, nor will he be outrunning him. So, what can he do to beat him?
He has to be smart. He has to capitalise on Balta’s errors. The Richmond full-back is still a very “see ball, get ball” type of player, so if Buddy can start losing him in traffic, get him caught up on switches, or convince him that he can take off, have a couple of bounces AND hit a target, I can see Franklin bobbing up for two or three goals.
If I’m Andrew McQualter, or whatever his name is, I am getting in the ear of Daniel Rioli or Nick Vlastuin to let them know when Balta gets the footy, you provide either a running handball option, or present up for a short 25-metre safe kick.
I just don’t trust Balta to use the footy well, or safely. He’s a great athlete, but he ain’t the best decision-maker in the business.
TOM MCCARTIN V JACK RIEWOLDT
If there is one thing I have always liked about Jack Riewoldt, it is the way he can manufacture a mark out of a contest he looks to have no chance of winning. It is like an innate talent.
He is usually at his best in this regard when confronted with an opponent that is a little more on the robotic side with his movements. At times over the years, I am convinced I have seen a few bolts in the neck of Tom McCartin.
Missing for a decent part of the season due to the lingering effects of concussion, McCartin may be a bit rusty, like the famous Indian cricketer… Makarz Abitrusty.
And big thanks to the 12th man for that gem from all those years ago.
Look, Jack is not the player he once was. He is an opportunist and still a dead-eye when it comes to slotting goals. Really, he only needs a few opportunities to ram home three or four goals for the night, and with Dusty hanging around and drawing some attention, I can see him making amends for the six-disposal outing he had against the Lions.
Dane Rampe will be very important as the floating defender in this game. If he can get across to assist McCartin, the Swans’ smalls in defence are pretty good on the rebound. Lloyd, Florent, and Campbell can cut through a zone pretty well and on the wide wings of the ‘G, they should find plenty of options… if they’re good enough.
ERROL GULDEN V KAMDYN MCINTOSH/MARLION PICKETT
One of the form players of the competition over the last month is Errol Gulden. So much so, that people are now throwing his name out there as an AA wingman… even our own Jimmy Day has him on the wing ahead of Nick Daicos. Jimmy… please, mate.
But you cannot argue with his recent form – Errol has been carving teams up. His past three weeks have seen him average over 28 touches per game, and he has added five goals across those three outings. If he gets off the chain, he can set the Swans alight.
And so, the Tigers will look to their old heads on the wing to keep him quiet.
A few years ago, the tandem of Kamdyn McIntosh and Marlion Pickett were almost the perfect wing duo. They were cohesive, ran the fat side of the ground perfectly, and covered for each other beautifully – premiership wingmen know how to play their role.
However, the guard has changed and these two are no longer amongst the league’s premier running men. For this contest, they won’t need to be. Whoever gets the role on Gulden will just have to sacrifice and play the defensive wing role, forcing Gulden away from goal and cutting off his run and carry.
If you’re unfamiliar with how damaging Errol Gulden is, it might be time to educate yourself. He is every bit as good on the wing as peak Zach Merrett was, or Josh Kelly at the Giants. He is so good in the role, his coaches, just like those of Merrett and Kelly, get tempted to throw him into the middle to light a fire in there, as well.
If McIntosh and/or Pickett do their jobs well, expect to see Errol shifted into the guts. If he starts getting off the chain, expect to see the Tiger pair start being a little more physical. They may not be the best wing duo in the game, or even close to it, but they’re both still hard nuts and hate being beaten.
BROAD V HEENEY
Isaac Heeney remains a matchwinner who… well, isn’t winning many matches at the moment. His 2023, if we’re being honest, has been a huge disappointment, particularly when you consider the stature he holds in the league and weigh it against performance.
With just 15 goals to his name, Heeney needs a foot up the arse. His misses last week were a huge factor in the Swans blowing their chances against the Cats – he needs a game where he redeems himself.
Unfortunately, he has to do that against one of the more unsung defenders in the caper – Nathan Broad.
Broad is just the type of defender that rains on a parade. He is not flashy, doesn’t create headlines (unless he is taking some post-Grand Final pics), but gets the job done more often than not.
Heeney will look to attack the contest and drag down a few early grabs. Broad will attempt to check his run and make sure he does not start the game well. Heeney will have Papley at his feet, whilst Broad will receive aid from players like Dylan Grimes and Daniel Rioli.
This contest could dictate the momentum of the game. When Heeney is up and about, the Swans walk a bit taller. I would not be surprised to see John Longmire throw him onto the ball early in an effort to get him loose in space without a direct opponent as he drifts forward. As soon as he crosses that half-forward line, the Tigers must be aware, and Broad has to react accordingly.
KEY PLAYERS
LOGAN AND HAYDEN
We covered Buddy and Heeney, but one of these blokes need to stand up. None of these single-digit disposal games they have (McDonald x 4 in 2023, McLean x 3 in 2023).
If both guys get 10+m disposals and hit the scoreboard once each, it will be enough to keep the Tiger defenders honest.
SHAI BOLTON
I don’t know where I’d play him. I love him as a high half-forward moving tough the middle, but he is such an asset close to goal, as well. Harry Cunningham will likely get the job on him if he plays inside 50, whereas the Swans’ midfield may have an issue containing him if he starts in the middle.
NICK VLASTUIN
Back to his best over his last four games, averaging almost 23 touches and 8.75 intercepts. If I was John Longmire, I would be tempted to play someone on him as a defensive forward, such is his influence. Will Hayward, looking at you, mate.
NICK BLAKEY
The run up the guts he provides sends defences into panic mode. When he tries it, the lift doors need to close on him immediately. If Blakey gets a head of steam and starts the Swans rolling, the chaos that follows can bring a defence undone.
DANIEL RIOLI
He is the opposite of Blakey. He does not cause chaos – he creates control. He always seems like he knows what he is doing and what he wants to happen next. Blakey is a bit like Adam Saad in that regard – Rioli has a lot more composure whilst still able to get forward and wreak havoc
TOM PAPLEY
May find himself isolated on Rioli on switches at some point. Must chase and chase hard if that occurs. Allowing Rioli to run off half back to be involved up the field would be unacceptable.
BRAEDEN CAMPBELL – Moved t the wing in recent weeks – I like it. His delivery inside 50 and ability to hit the scoreboard from long distance could provide a headache.
LIAM BAKER – Forward or back, it doesn’t matter. Would run over his own grandmother to get the footy… and would back over her to pick it up if he fumbled it. Might be my favourite Tiger to watch.
SO, WHO WINS?
Well, if I knew that, my tipping would be a lot better this season, right?
Rain is forecast in Melbourne and I feel that always works in favour of Richmond due to their pressure and style. The Swans want t run the footy – they’re at their best when they can, but in the wet, that can lead to turnovers, and the Tigers should be able to capitalise.
Of course, the ‘G drains beautifully, so an hour’s break in the weather and things could change quickly.
If we look at this as a battle between two players, maybe it’ll make sense. If Sydney can manufacture run through the middle, and someone like Nick Blakey gets off the chain, they will control the game.
If it is more a Daniel Rioli taking control of the footy and feeding players ahead of him, on turnover, it’s the Tigers.
With so much on the line, I expect this to be a hard-at-it game of footy. With both teams smarting after last week’s performances, we may just get a Thursday night treat.
Tigers by nine in the wet.
And best of luck to Jacob Bauer and Sam Banks on debut. Enjoy it, boys.
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