Nobody knows AFLW like The Doc.
Nobody!
He has been keeping a close eye on all goings-on to do with the league in the lead up to the 2024 season. Here is the first installment of what he’s seen.
WHY HAWTHORN ARE MY BIG IMPROVERS IN 2024
I’m putting my stocks in Hawthorn to rise up the ladder in 2024 significantly.
In their first three seasons, they’ve shown big streaks of competitiveness, but there was a bit to be desired in moving the ball to the forward line.
There seems to be a wind of change at Hawthorn, with a couple of new faces coming to the club this year.
Of course, the big inclusion from this past off-season is coach Daniel Webster, who served a wealthy apprenticeship at Brisbane… and has won two flags from the past five seasons.
However, another big inclusion is Eliza West, who without even playing a game in the Brown and Gold, was elected by her teammates as vice-captain.
West’s last year at Melbourne was bizarre to say the least, having been an important cog in Melbourne’s premiership triumph in season seven, to being on the outer less than 12 months later.
But the injection of West into a midfield that already boasts Emily Bates, Tilly Lucas-Rodd and a fast-emerging Jasmine Fleming is only going to enhance the Hawks’ ability to win the important clearances.
Over the years, we’ve been told as observers of the game to not take much out of practice matches, but there’s still an inkling in me that believes what you see in practice matches can also dictate the way the season will unfold.
The win against Sydney, a side that showed great strides last year en route to a maiden finals appearance, demonstrated that Hawthorn look to have found that next level.
Last year, the Hawks were among the competition’s worst sides at winning clearances and a bottom-six side at contested ball. Yet lead the competition for tackles.
It’s an issue that Daniel Webster should be able to address this year. The Lions have often been a side that relied on tackling sides into submission and were so good at making them pay in transition.
There are small queries at either end that I hope are answered by Round One.
Their forward line needs to average far more than 30 points per game, there are good pieces in place.
They’ve found a really good key forward in Aine McDonagh, who led the Hawks, kicking with 10.4 in 2023, and Greta Bodey came through with 9.4 herself, last year.
But for the Hawks to improve their scoring, they need to find both greater supply of inside 50 entries this year, and to find the connection between mid and forward – the Hawks were ranked 15th in the competition last year for generating inside 50s.
What they also need is to find a bigger spread of goalkickers. It cannot be left to the likes of McDonagh and Bodey to get it done week after week.
There are questions about where Lou Stephenson might play this year, whether it’s forward or back, but during the Hawks’ practice match against Essendon, she provided a good aerial threat.
I love Kristy Stratton as a pressure-forward – ranked just outside the top 10 of all general forwards for pressure acts, and kicked 5.5 as a result of her tenacity towards the contest in 2023.
And there’s big wraps on Bridie Hipwell to continue her development this year – in 2023 she kicked six goals without a blemish and impressed with both her forward craft and her ability to be able to compete in the air.
They enter 2024 without Catherine Brown, who was their defensive anchor in Hawthorn’s first two seasons. Solid with her contest work in the one-on-ones, and was able to hold her own during that time.
A lot more pressure will go on the likes of Jenna Richardson, who was unquestionably underrated in 2023 in terms of being able to intercept and being able to play one-on-one on forwards.
And there’s going to be a ton of pressure on Mackenzie Eardley to take that next step in her development and be the one in defence that holds it all together. In 2023, Eardley’s percentage of one-on-one contest defeats was over 38 per cent in 13 contests.
For some terms of reference, some of the better key defenders of the competition, such as Jasmine Ferguson, Libby Birch, and Tahlia Gillard were ranging around 17 per cent of one-on-one losses last year. In the case of Gillard she only just lost two contests from 36.
The foundation has been there from the start with Hawthorn, and now after two seasons together, they need to start making a significant jump up the ladder sooner rather than later.
THE NEXT STEP FOR ESSENDON
Nat Wood’s stay at Essendon has been extended for a further two seasons, seeing her remain at the club until 2026.
Her win-loss record in Essendon’s first two years have been 10-11 – but last year saw the Bombers reach finals for the first time, winning six games through the home and away season before being bundled out in the first week by Geelong.
I’m unsure how I feel about Essendon heading into 2024, but I’m sure Wood is the right person for the job right now.
Statistically, the numbers suggest they’re a top-eight side. They were ranked seventh in the comp for the least amount of points conceded in the home and away season.
They were fifth in the competition for clearance differential and fourth for contested possession differential.
And while we laud the brilliance from the likes of Bonnie Toogood and Maddy Prespakis, the biggest takeaway from the Bombers last year was that very few players around them stood up when it mattered.
Particularly in midfield, the depth drops off significantly after you roll through Prespakis, Georgia Nanscawen (who had a brilliant ‘debut’ season, by the way) and Steph Cain.
Prespakis attended just over 86 per cent of centre bounces last year. Nanscawen 71.4 per cent and Cain 70.4 before missing the last two matches.
The next best were Jacqui Vogt (44.4 per cent of CBA’s from seven games) and Brooke Walker (35.4 per cent from Round Two to Round 10).
The gap in the clearances is damning – Prespakis and Nanscawen combined for 117 clearances last year – Prespakis 60 and Nanscawen 57, whereas Walker (28) and Cain (24) only managed to combine to scrape past a combined total of 50.
It’s part of why they targeted Maddi Gay this off-season. Whilst largely being deployed as an outside type, she’s shown on multiple occasions throughout her time at Melbourne she’s got the fiercely competitive nature to be an inside midfielder.
But also, where does Paige Scott fit among the plans? She has proven she’s got the strength and the power to excel in the midfield, but what’s the tank like? We’ll see in due time, but I’m excited to see what she can produce in her third season at the top level.
One other thing I’d like to see from Essendon to improve this year is more forwards getting on the scoresheet.
Ten Essendon players registered multiple goals in 2023, which is a fair spread of goalkickers. Toogood had a breakout year, kicking 16.9 and was rewarded with her first All-Australian.
However, the Bombers need to score more, only averaging 37.9 points during the home and away season – ranked 11th in the league.
Amber Clarke and Sophie Alexander kicked six goals each last year, but from there, the input from the forwards dropped off. Prespakis (6.5 in 2023), Amelia Radford (4.2) and Jacqui Vogt (4.0) are the next highest goalkickers and all of them are players who have roles up the ground.
The gap between Alexander’s best and worst football is still a fair way apart; that needs to be narrowed this season. And 6.7 needs to be projected into double figures.
There needs to be more scoring input from Scott if she’s got a forward role this year, and if Lily-Rose Williamson gets a clean run, maybe she can be a pressure-small forward the Bombers are currently lacking in their squad.
PLAYERS THAT CAUGHT MY EYE OVER THE WEEKEND
The weekend’s practice matches have come and gone, and whilst I didn’t get the chance to watch all of the games, I saw a couple of games and some glimpses of others.
This part of the column is just going to highlight some players that caught my eye.
Firstly over at Port Adelaide, they’re going to be a tough read again this year. The midfield depth will be handy this year with Kirsty Lamb coming in, and the kids that excelled in under-18s like Piper Window and Shineah Goody. And I can’t wait to see Lauren Young once fully rehabilitated from her ACL injury.
However, Goody’s efforts against Melbourne showed that she’s already going to be one of the competition’s front-runners for the Rising Star award. She had 11 touches and a couple of clearances to half-time but finished the match with 25 disposals.
There were lots of rave reviews about just how collected she is when she runs the ball out of congestion, and there was plenty of it in this one. She finished with four clearances and proved to be strong in tandem with both Lamb and Sachi Syme, who provided the frontal pressure.
On the other end, Melbourne found a likely type in Ryleigh Wotherspoon. I had a lot of doubts over this selection in last year’s draft, taken with pick 12 overall in the AFLW Draft.
A talented athlete at both soccer and cricket, Wotherspoon played one game in Queensland, and it was enough to be asked by Brisbane to be a train-on player. Yes, the same Brisbane side that has unearthed many a gem since the AFLW begun.
Still, to be taken so early on is a huge risk for a side that was taken out in straight sets in 2023. Putting a lot of faith in someone who, as athletically gifted as she is, is considered by some as green in the Aussie Rules industry.
She had a good year in the VFLW earlier this year, and I’d wager she’d have taken a lot of learnings from her time at Casey. It was put to good practice on the weekend, putting up three goals for the Dees in a losing effort.
She does a lot right as a forward, she reads the play beautifully, has a great kick on her and is a good overhead mark.
Over at the Bulldogs, talk about Jess Fitzgerald’s move to half back came to life in their practice match against the Gold Coast Suns.
The Dogs copped another hiding to carry on their 2023 form in this one, but hopefully, it’s the only hiding they cop this year. Otherwise us Dogs fans will be looking for any positive that comes our way and hope that no one leaves the club.
Fitzgerald has been pretty average over the past 12 to 18 months in her development as a midfielder.
Her contested numbers have slowly gone backwards: 6.6 contested possessions per game in season six to 5.2 last year. And that’s from 78 per cent of centre bounce attendances throughout the 2023 season. The only other midfielder to attend more centre bounces at the Dogs last year was Ellie Blackburn.
The move to half-back exploits the kicking power that Fitzgerald has shown throughout the first few years in her career. Her 18 disposals in this practice game was the second-highest disposal winner at the club – behind, you guessed it, Ellie Blackburn.
There weren’t a lot of running options out of half back for the Dogs last year, but this year feels like they’re well stocked. Georgostathis was far and away the best option running the ball out of defence last year, and there’s a lot to like in Aurora Smith’s game last year in the games she did play, and Cleo Buttifant showed plenty to like in the defensive half in this game as well with her speed and ability to cut through the lines.
If anything, the Dogs may not register the wins, but Tamara Hyett has instilled a game plan to run the ball and take on the angles where they come. If the Dogs don’t win games, at least they won’t die trying when they do have the ball in their hands.
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