The Doc has his finger on the pulse of the AFLW season. Here is what he is looking forward to in Round Four.
HAWTHORN V MELBOURNE – Jasmine Fleming
In the first meeting between the two sides, it should be elementary for the reigning premiers to get their fourth win on the bounce to start the season against the Hawks in Frankston.
I’m a bit indifferent to the Hawks. Against the Dogs in round two, they looked inspired and stood up when handed the challenge. But against Fremantle last week, it was a very flat performance, particularly when they were moving the ball forward of centre.
I’ve said my penance on their forward line – it’s nowhere near the level it should be aiming for – but for this week, I’d like to narrow the focus on a young gun of this side, Jasmine Fleming.
Against the Dockers last week, the one constant I saw out of the Hawks midfield was Fleming attempting to push and run and garner meterage, alongside Charlotte Baskaran, were key players for the Hawks last week.
Her stats this year are nearly identical to her debut season last year. A few things are different: Her clearance numbers have dipped from 3.2 last season to 1.7 this year. Her gained metres are up from last year (297.3 per game in 2023), and the uncontested possession count is up from 5.4 per game in 2022 to 10.
Whilst being a prominent figure around the centre bounces, the addition of Emily Bates has freed Fleming to be a free-wheeling midfielder and play to her strengths a little more. Against a white-hot Melbourne side, I’d love to see how she goes against the competition’s benchmark.
GWS V ADELAIDE – The Crom Ruck Pair
The Giants were spirited but went down to the Tigers last week in Blacktown, consigning them to 0-3, and I’d dare say Adelaide this week will put them in with a zero and four record.
There’s a lot that’s starting to click for the Crows now. My most extensive concern pre-season was where the goals would come from. Danielle Ponter has begun to find her form again, but the big surprise to many, I’m sure, is Caitlin Gould’s prominence and impact in the forward line. She currently leads the Crows with six goals for the season.
Not many have talked about Jess Allan’s return to the club this season, and it’s about time we did. Since round two, Allan has taken more of the ruck contests and has started in more centre bounces than Gould has. The only times Gould has attended the centre to contest in the ruck is when Allan is off having a breather.
Allan has averaged 41.7 ruck contests this year and is averaging 24 hitouts and nearly eight to advantage this year – her hitouts to advantage numbers hold her in the top three – behind Alice Edmonds and Jess Good.
This week against the Giants, she should have a field day in terms of getting the hitout numbers up – Fleur Davies and Teagan Germech are both young and inexperienced ruck options, and realistically, they don’t have anyone else who can go up against the pair of Gould and Allan. It could be a bloodbath that benefits the Adelaide midfielders.
CARLTON V RICHMOND – The Green Shoots
Eighth against ninth heading to this one –Carlton and Richmond have a win-loss record of 2-1; you expect on the form you’d take the Tigers to get this one over the line, but Carlton has been quite admirable to date with their start to the season.
I’ll give the Blues credit; I’m sure not many of them expected to win a game to this point, but as we’ve heard before, with young and relatively inexperienced sides, some promising green shoots are coming through in this team. Really, more positive has come out of this team so far than negative.
A lot of the praise has been heaped on Keeley Skepper this week, and rightfully so; she was sensational on the weekend, rotating through the forward line and on the wing. She was one of two players nominated for the Rising Star Award this week amid a positive start to the season.
But it’s more than her that Blues fans should get excited about. Keeley Sherar has thrived in her role in the midfield this year (leads all Carlton midfielders for centre bounce attendances). Erone Fitzpatrick, coming from Ireland, is locking down a spot in this side. Marianna Anthony has brought a lot of defensive pressure into this side, and Mia Austin showed she can make it as a key position player last week.
I don’t expect the Blues to win this week, but I’d love to see these younger players continue their journey and serve it up to the Tigers.
PORT ADELAIDE V GEELONG – Claudia Gunjaca
It should be a straight-forward response for the Cats this week after North Melbourne beat them in a second half that saw the Cats fail to register a goal.
There are some positives for the Cats: Mikayla Bowen’s two goals early doors were enormous, Georgie Prespakis head to head with Jasmine Garner and going blow for blow with her for most of the evening was great, but a lot of people were singing the praises of Claudia Gunjaca and her two-way style in the defensive half.
She had the role of taking on Tahlia Randall for a lot of the evening and kept her to just one goal from six touches and two marks while also picking up 19 disposals, 10 intercept possessions and seven marks.
I noticed Gunjaca’s ability to read play had improved in some way in round one, and it has continued to now. She sits in the top 10 in the competition for intercept possessions and has lost one-on-one contests with her opposition just four times in 11 contests.
Five players have registered double figures in one-on-one contests after round three: Gunjaca, Libby Birch, Jasmine Ferguson, Sophie McDonald and Selena Karlson. Gunjaca has the worst loss percentage out of the five – going at 36 per cent.
Port Adelaide isn’t a side to sleep on, especially with their trio of tall targets in the forward line. I think Gunjaca gets the job on Ash Saint – keep her to just four touches, and the Cats will register a big win.
SYDNEY V WEST COAST – Another Sydney Win
The Eagles are in a real hole and probably weren’t expecting it to be like this. There’s no doubt the heat has been on the team this week, but the Eagles have had to come out and defend their coach. If you’ve stuck around the game as long as I have, we all know what is coming, right?
The Eagles must respond this week, but I’m all about Sydney now. They look so much more competitive in their games – perhaps a bit stiff to be fixtures against Geelong and Brisbane the past fortnight, but they’ve still looked excellent in patches.
I’ve talked endlessly about Laura Gardiner since the season started, but she’s been a revelation in this team. Tanya Kennedy is another one starting to find her feet at AFLW level and looks very comfortable through the midfield.
They’ve got a player in Ally Morphett… well, what can I say about her that hasn’t been said elsewhere? She’s undeniably the early favourite to be the All-Australian ruck, dominating the ruck and providing an extra body to help move the ball forward. She is capable of impacting on the scoreboard, too.
I like the defensive unit, led by Lucy McEvoy, Ella Heads and Brenna Tarrant, and I suspect they’ll have a field day against a West Coast forward line that is next to non-existent.
If the Swans win by six goals or more this week, then lord have mercy on Michael Prior.
NORTH MELBOURNE V BRISBANE – How Brisbane cover Dakota Davidson
What a shame Dakota Davidson isn’t playing this week because this section would be about her impending match-up with Jasmine Ferguson – I guess we’ll have to wait until the finals later in the year.
However, I am intrigued about how the forward line will operate in her absence. Taylor Smith should come back into the side this week after missing with a hamstring injury. At worst, she provides a target up forward, and you’d hope the ball goes to ground for all the smaller types of players.
Even looking at last week’s win, there is no shortage of options – the wing combination of Sophie Conway and Orla O’Dwyer kicked five goals between them. This week is big for Courtney Hodder, who starred with three goals last week. And they found a beauty of a player in Charlotte Mullins, who showed tremendous pressure and kicked two goals in just her third career game.
Another thing that flew under the radar in the win last week was Shannon Campbell playing more of a forward role; she took two marks inside 50 and had two shots on goal from the weekend, which makes me think it’s a papering over the crack job whilst their star forward is not playing.
The Lions have looked the goods since losing to the Tigers, but another big test awaits North Melbourne in their quest for premiership legitimacy; Shierlaw is back, and Jenna Bruton will play her first game of the season. On top of that, the Roos haven’t lost in Tasmania since coming into the league.
ESSENDON V FREMANTLE – The Midfield Battle
This will be an exciting game; both sides sit on two wins, and in a season where every win is worth their weight in gold, it’s a game with high stakes – the winner is practically a foot in the door playing finals from here.
The Bombers will be very disappointed with their performance in South Australia last week, but it at least sets them a platform of where they are in terms of the competition’s elites. They beat the Crows in the clearances – +3 in centre bounces and +7 in stoppage work, but they were smashed in contested ball and inside 50 entries.
I love the Dons midfield – last year, I stressed it was a one-woman show with Maddy Prespakis – this year, they look more settled with their midfield crew. Georgia Nanscawen is living up to the hype that came with her following dominant seasons in the VFLW, all the more impressive considering she is doing what she is doing after an ACL injury.
You’ve also got Steph Cain, who’s been reliable since making the move from Fremantle, Jacqui Vogt, who’s been a surprising presence in the midfield, and Steph Wales, who’s been on a slow burn as the number one ruck at the Dons.
It’ll be interesting against a Fremantle midfield that I’m not sure runs as deep as Essendon do. Kiara Bowers and Hayley Miller are mainstays, but Dana East and Megan Kauffman are the next cabs off the rank and as good as they are effort-wise, they aren’t precisely players that you’d back to change the game.
It’s been said that games are won and lost in the midfield – I guess we’ll see well and truly on Sunday.
ST KILDA V COLLINGWOOD – The Collingwood forward line
There’s a lot at stake for both sides this week. For the Saints, the pressure continues to mount on Nick Dal Santo. Last week, they let a 21-point lead in the third term slip from their grasp against a Port Adelaide.
Whether or not the Saints have had higher expectations than where they currently sit is beyond me. They are winless from three games, and last week against the Power was their best chance of getting on the board. The good news is they’re back at home this week and have a Pies side that has struggled forward of centre.
The bad news is they face a Collingwood side who should be playing like desperate players this week. The loss to Gold Coast was a big dent in their finals aspirations last week, and at 1-2 after three weeks, this week looms as a game they must win.
The bottom line is the loss last week was their undoing. They had more scoring shots than the Suns and were utterly wasteful in front of the big sticks.
No Eliza James again this week as she continues to work through a syndesmosis injury sustained in round one, but those playing forward need to lift this week. The only player who looked like making anything work up forward this week is Ash Brazill, and she is not a player who has played much as a forward throughout her career.
They would want the players around her to lift. Nell Morris Dalton was unsighted for 97 per cent of the game last week; Grace Campbell is a good pressure player but needs to start showing some scoreboard impact; and I need more from Eleri Morris and Tarni Brown when they are stationed deep.
GOLD COAST V WESTERN BULLDOGS – A couple of things
Last week was a much-spirited performance by the Western Bulldogs against a side that was expected to hand them a belting far greater than seven goals. This week, the Suns are expected to be the favourites, and rightly so; they’re on a two-game winning run and fresh off an impressive win against Collingwood away from home.
I want to see two things this week – the first is for the Bulldogs to continue to heap the pressure on the opposition – they out-tackled Melbourne by 22 last week, which is a big positive, considering the Dees had the game on their terms for a lot of the second half.
There was a lot to love about players like Aurora Smith, Maggie Gorham, Rylie Wilcox and Keely Coyne, and they need to be kept in this team between now and the end of the season. I didn’t hate Gabby Newton in the defensive half, but her kicking and decision-making make me as nervous as she is lining up for a set shot.
I want to see more of the Suns continuing to bully sides in the contest. In the opening term against Collingwood last week, they dominated them around the stoppages, and only when Collingwood hit back did they start getting more shots on goal.
We know Charlie Rowbottom is a star, but Lucy Single has been the one to step up in the midfield this year. Last week, it was a run-with job on Bri Davey that saw her influence in the game dulled significantly. I expect she’ll start on Ellie Blackburn this week and follow her around the ground.
But the Suns have the potential to flex their muscle this week and continue to solidify themselves within the top four.
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