ROUND FIVE
The football world descends on the City of Churches for a cash grab … sorry, for Gather Round. The round has a few intriguing match ups, and some that require a morbid fascination with football clubs imploding to enjoy (I’m talking to you Carlton). Do we start to get some separation at the top, or does unpredictability reign supreme, throwing things into chaos?
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Five.
The Guarantee
There will be no undefeated teams left at the culmination of this round.
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Dogs are a good side and they are certainly fun to watch, but their injury list is borderline out of control. They have no fit ruckmen, short of a recently drafted rookie, and their midfield is somewhat depleted. Sure, they still have the Bont out there, which means anything can happen, but they seem to be stretched almost too thin.
Also, when you consider the form of Hokball, then this is a strong challenge for the Dogs. Probably too much of a challenge, all things considered.
I expect the Dogs to finish top four, but they will drop their first game of the season this weekend.
*over to you now Dogs to prove me wrong!
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
This is for the AFL Nepo Baby … sorry, the Suns of the Gold Coast sky.
– before Suns fans complain about the Nepo Baby term again. Wear it like a badge of honour. Other fans saying that are because they are envious of the position your club is in. It’s like being a Cats fan and hearing about farms, Cotton On, etc.
Anyway. The ultimate nightmare this week is for the AFL’s Nepo Baby to drop a second game in a row, after their bright start to the season. They were taught a lesson on the MCG over the weekend by the rampaging Dees. Now, they must confront the Swom.
The Suns have a decent record against the Swans in recent seasons, but it’s hard to look past Sydney in the form that they are in. This shapes as a fantastic game, but it wouldn’t be ideal for the Suns to drop this and rejoin the traffic jam that is the middle part of the ladder.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
I’m not at all convinced by the Orange Team at the moment. They are like unpeated whiskey – nice enough, but don’t quite belong in the GOAT conversation. And that’s probably hard to hear for some.
For all the talent that they have, they have too many passengers sometimes. This is a game that the Giants should win, and I’ve seen nothing in the Tigers to suggest they have it in them to beat a decent team, but it’s been a weird season thus far. If the Tigers get the jump on the Giants and get some confidence and momentum going, then why not?
*I fully expect the Giants to win, but their form makes them gettable.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
This has every chance of coming back to bite me, but one of North Melbourne (v Brisbane) and West Coast (v Geelong) takes the four points. Last year in the corresponding fixture, Norf and the Lions finished in a draw. And that was unexpected and called into question whether Brisbane were any good (we know how that ended).
As for the Cats and Eagles, while the Cats have the wood over them, the boys in the hoops have yet to fire this year. They are scratchy, lacking synergy, and some of their stars haven’t exited pre-season yet.
Despite being obliterated by the Swans last week, the Eagles have been pretty solid thus far in 2026. The question will be about whether or not they can respond. Because if they can, the early-season Cats are gettable.
Essential Result (Must Win)
The closing game of the round presents a must-win for both teams. The Power from Port have barely fired a shot thus far in 2026. Sure, they’ve had some injuries, but they don’t seem to be playing a convincing brand of football under Josh Carr. Defensively, they’ve had challenges, despite their front-half firepower, and that has cost them.
So, perhaps, it’s good that they play the Saints this week. A side that defensively is on point, but struggles to kick a meaningful score. There are some really interesting matchups in this one. Can Cal Wilkie curtail Mitch Georgiades?
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
The Pride of South Australia is opening another iteration of Gather Round. The Crom have had a pretty hectic start to the season. They’ve played four sides who are expected to feature in finals footy, and find themselves at 1-3. However, those three losses have been close games.
The issue that they have is form as a collective, midfield frailties and injuries. They come up against the licorice allsorts Blues. On paper, on form, and on expectation, the Crows should win this one relatively comfortably. But, what if … ? What if the Blues somehow remember that an AFL game goes for four quarters? What if they somehow find avenues to goal? What if … Carlton wins?
While that may delay the inevitable for Michael Voss, I feel like a loss for the Crom could be catastrophic for their confidence and for their season. There is a lot at stake for both sides, but right now, Adelaide is in the gun, needing to win.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
The midfield battle in the Cats v Eagles game. I expect Geelong to rest a few players, given they have a five-day break after this week’s game, which leads to playing the Dogs. This might see some experience go out of the Cats’ side – maybe even Max Holmes, too, given he is playing with a broken finger. Doing that, and bringing in players, potentially, like George Stevens and Jhye Clark, shortens the divide between the Cats and the Eagles.
The Cats may have too much firepower in the end, but the midfield battle in this one will go a long way to determining the result of the game. Someone like a Harley Reid could go large, given the Cats’ inability to stop those hybrid, medium-sized mid-forwards.
*for those looking at milestones, I’ll guarantee the Cats rest Mark Blicavs this Sunday, so that he can play game 300 at home v the Dogs next Friday Night. Rhys Stanley therefore to come in.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
It’ll have to be North. Last year’s draw with the Lions was VERY unexpected. This year, Norf are much improved and more consistent, so they could pose some further challenges to the Lions again.
However, the Lions seem to have found their groove in recent weeks and are building nicely into the season. I like Norf in this one, in terms of keeping the margin below four goals. In many respects, with expectation, that’s a solid underdog performance.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
The Magpies. Last week, they failed to deliver against the Lions. I know what you’re thinking Pies fans, “we didn’t have Nick Daicos”. And yes, every team loses a bit when their best player isn’t on the park. But, there’s losing a bit, and then there’s being so reliant on one player that the rest of the team forgets how to football.
The Pies need a win on Friday Night. They seldom lose at Adelaide Oval (if at all), so they will feel confident going to the ground. However, the Doker are super balanced and in good nick at the moment. This is a massive test for the Pies and could be somewhat season-defining, give their list profile and aspirations and expectations for season 2026.
The Don (player of the round)
This will be seen as not taking a risk or being brave, but I don’t care. Max Gawn will dominate the Bombers. The Dees are cooking, the Dons are not. This could be a really decent win for Steven King’s men, and I expect Max Gawn to lead the charge. Let’s say 20+ disposals, 50+ hit outs, 3+ goals for big Max!
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
I’m loving the work Zeke Uwland is doing and how he’s building into the season. He is competitive and, for the most part, makes good decisions. I think he can put in a really solid showing against the Swans this weekend.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
The Pies’ defence was eviscerated last week. I expect that they will address some things, but I do like Josh Treacy for a bag of 5+ in this one, under Friday Night Lights.
The Winners (currently on 23; last week 6)
Adelaide
Fremantle
Brisbane
Melbourne
Sydney
Hawthorn
West Coast
Greater Western Sydney
Port Adelaide
Predictions were made with only the Thursday Night teams available. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.