ROUND FOUR
So, last week, the AFL snuck in an early morning announcement about Grand Final time and headline musical performance … and we just can’t get the frustration out of our heads as to why they continue to be moronic. Enough of the AFL is Inept discussion. We turn our heads to round four – still a bye round – and Easter weekend footy. There are some intriguing matchups this weekend, and we can all but fall to our knees and pray for some GOOD GAMES of football this weekend.
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Four.
The Guarantee
More discussions about fixturing will take centre stage on Monday when the first half of the Cats v Hawks game is scratchy. The Cats had a 12-day break before last week’s game, and come into Easter Monday with an 11-day break. Hokball, well, they will not have played a competitive game for 18 DAYS when they run out on Monday.
This is downright insanity from the AFL to even think this works. Let all the headlines come the AFL’s way, because this is just dumb.
The Eagles will be brave and remain competitive, but it’ll be the day that Charlie Curnow breaks out for the Swom. He has a great record against the Eagles, including in Perth, so I think we can lock in Charlie for six or more goals and have a big day out against the Eagles.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
This depends on whether or not you are a Carlton supporter. If they win, they’ll have emotions … not as strong emotions as last week, but emotions nonetheless. If they lose, well, the footy world will roll out the red carpet with memes again.
So, therefore, the Ultimate Nightmare is that Carlton wins, and for most, it is not a Good Friday.
Okay, so that was mean.
In all seriousness, the ultimate nightmare for this weekend is that something happens regarding fuel access and the AFL decide to cancel Gather Round.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
Probably Carlton … we’ve already seen North lose a game when they go in as favourites, watch them do it again. It’d be very Norf to lose this, and very Carlton to play well in the second half.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
A new highest-ever score is kicked on Sunday Night when the rampaging Dogs take on the continually disappointing Bombers. It likely won’t happen, and as a Geelong fan, I’d like to keep that record, but this game could get VERY ugly for the Bombers.
Essential Result (Must Win)
This probably applies to both Adelaide and Fremantle, who play each other in Adelaide this weekend. Friday Night footy shaping up as a cracker. The Crows are a better side at home, but are missing key personnel, and the Dockers are sending a purple haze over the competition.
The Crows need a win to stay invested heading into Gather Round, while the Dockers would love a win on the road to solidify their credentials as a genuine Premiership threat. This should be a cracker, with talented key forwards at either end … here’s to a good game.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
Both the Pies and the Lions. While finally getting four points last week, the Lions have started the season slowly and have been a little scratchy. The Pies had a great win last week, but that has come at a cost.
Can the Pies upset the Lions at the GABBAtoir or will the Lions continue to build into season 2026? Thursday Night Footy will present these answers.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
How can it not be Easter Monday against rivals Geelong and Hawthorn? The Cats have had the Hawks measure in recent matchups, so expect the Hawks to come out ready to blow the game open early.
There are many potentially mouth-watering one-on-one collisions in this one, and two teams that don’t like each other. Will we see some more Bailey Smith heroics? Can the Hawks’ forwards dominate their opponents? Will there be any scars for Hokball from the 2025 Prelim Final? Tune in on Monday to find out.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
The Tigers could give this a red-hot shake against the Power. I know that sounds ridiculous, but given the Power capitulated last week and have already lost on the road this year, there are some teething challenges from Josh Carr – always to be expected!
I don’t know that I am brave enough to tip the Tigers, but don’t expect this to be all one-way traffic for the Power from Port.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
The Suns. They don’t get many opportunities at the MCG, so they need to take their chances and win these games. Why? So that the venue doesn’t become a mental hurdle for them later in the year. The Suns, on form and personnel, should win this comfortably.
But we are seeing some good signs from the Dees kids … watch for Kozzy to have some fun, but the Suns midfield to dominate their opponents.
The Don (player of the round)
Given how much I expect the Dogs to win by, I’m going Bont 25+ touches, 10+ clearances, 6+ goals to have an all-time game.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
He may not win the Rising Star nom, but I’m loving what I see of Josh Lindsay. The lethal left-footer adds a new dimension to the Eagles’ ball movement with his movement and ability to hit a target under pressure. Watch for him to continue to grow off half-back.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
I was originally going to write ‘Jack Henry to beat Jack Gunston on Monday’, but I think I’ll go with Cam Zurhaar kicking four or more goals on Good Friday.
The Winners (currently on 17; last week 5)
Brisbane Lions
North Melbourne
Fremantle
Port Adelaide
Sydney
Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs
Geelong
Predictions were made with only the Thursday Night teams available. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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