The Greater Western Sydney Giants were never intended to be a conservative addition to the AFL landscape. From their inception, the club represented a deliberate and ambitious strategy by the league to establish a presence in rugby league heartland.
The objective was clear: expand the game’s national footprint and cultivate a new generation of supporters in Western Sydney. It was a calculated risk, one that was always expected to take time, patience, and sustained financial backing.
More than a decade on, the discussion surrounding that decision has evolved significantly. The focus is no longer solely on long-term growth and strategic patience. Increasingly, attention has turned to measurable outcomes, particularly in the most visible area of all: attendance. While internal metrics such as participation rates and grassroots engagement remain important, the reality is that crowd numbers shape public perception, influence commercial appeal, and ultimately contribute to a club’s standing within the competition.
On that front, the results have been inconsistent.
The Giants have not lacked for on-field competitiveness. Since their early developmental years, the club has established itself as a capable and, at times, formidable side. They have featured regularly in finals, produced elite-level talent, and reached a Grand Final in 2019. In most traditional AFL markets, that level of performance would be expected to generate strong and stable crowd support. Success, in those environments, tends to reinforce loyalty and attract new followers.
However, in Western Sydney, that correlation has not been consistently evident.
Attendances have fluctuated, sometimes sharply, and have at times fallen below expectations for a club with such credentials. While there have been encouraging moments, they have not yet translated into a sustained upward trend. This inconsistency raises legitimate concerns about the depth of the Giants’ connection with their local community.
In professional sport, success is typically a catalyst for growth. Winning teams create narratives that engage supporters, generate media interest, and build anticipation around each fixture. For GWS, those narratives have existed, but they have not always resonated widely enough to produce consistent crowd engagement. The atmosphere at matches can, on occasion, reflect a supporter base that is still developing, rather than one that is firmly embedded within the local sporting culture.
A recent comparison has brought this issue into sharper focus.
While the Giants hosted St Kilda in front of a modest crowd in Sydney, the Tasmania Devils attracted a larger attendance for their inaugural VFL match. The significance of this contrast is difficult to ignore. A club preparing to enter the AFL, playing at state league level, was able to draw more spectators than an established AFL side.
This is more than a statistical anomaly. It is a reflection of two very different football environments.
Tasmania represents a traditional football market where Australian rules is deeply ingrained in the cultural identity of the state. The strong turnout for the Devils’ debut was not simply about novelty; it was an expression of long-standing passion and a sense of validation. Tasmanians have advocated for an AFL team for decades, and now that a licence has finally been granted, the response has been immediate and emphatic.
That reality inevitably reframes the broader expansion discussion.
Because while Tasmania now has its team, there is a growing sense that it should have happened much earlier. Long before the AFL committed to placing a second side in New South Wales, there was already a clear and proven demand in Tasmania. The state consistently supported visiting AFL matches, produced elite talent, and maintained a deep connection to the game at all levels.
In hindsight, the question becomes difficult to ignore.
Should Tasmania have been prioritised ahead of a second team in an NRL-dominated market?
The AFL’s decision to establish GWS was driven by a desire to expand into new territory and grow the game nationally. That ambition remains valid. However, the contrast between Western Sydney and Tasmania suggests that expansion and consolidation may not have been balanced as effectively as they could have been.
In Western Sydney, the Giants are still working to build cultural relevance. Rugby League remains the dominant code, supported by generational loyalty and strong community ties. Establishing an AFL presence in that environment requires sustained effort and a long-term commitment to grassroots development.
In Tasmania, that work has largely already been done.
The game is embedded in the community. The passion is established. The supporter base is ready and waiting. The Devils’ strong VFL debut crowd is not the beginning of that story, it is simply the latest chapter in a long-standing relationship between the state and the sport.
It is important to acknowledge that the AFL entered Western Sydney with full awareness of the challenges involved. The Giants were never expected to deliver immediate returns. They were, and remain, a long-term investment in the growth of the game.
However, the passage of time inevitably brings increased scrutiny.
After more than ten years, there is a reasonable expectation that progress should be more clearly reflected in key indicators such as attendance and membership. While the Giants have made meaningful contributions at the grassroots level, including junior development programs and community engagement initiatives, the translation of these efforts into consistent match-day support remains incomplete.
This does not mean that the decision to establish the Giants was fundamentally flawed. Nor does it suggest that the club’s presence in Western Sydney should be reconsidered. The AFL has invested too much into the region, and the long-term vision of a truly national competition remains compelling.
But it does mean that the league must be willing to reflect.
The success of Tasmania’s entry into the AFL highlights what can be achieved when a team is placed in a market that already embraces the game. It also serves as a reminder that timing matters. While expansion into new regions is important, so too is recognising and rewarding existing football heartlands.
A more balanced approach may have delivered different outcomes.
Ultimately, the story of GWS is still being written. The club represents both the AFL’s ambition and the challenges that come with it. Building a supporter base in a non-traditional market is a complex, gradual process, and one that cannot be judged solely on short-term metrics.
At the same time, Tasmania’s journey offers a clear counterpoint.
It demonstrates the power of tradition, community connection, and long-standing demand. It also raises a question that will continue to linger as the Devils prepare to enter the competition.
Not whether Tasmania deserves a team – that has already been answered – but whether it should have had one much sooner.
In that context, the AFL’s expansion strategy is not necessarily a failure, but it is open to debate.
And that debate is only getting louder.
You can find more from Dave on his own substack, It’s a Dave Thing.
