ROUND ONE
The 2026 AFL season is finally upon us. I was on sabbatical, and that included last week, because that doesn’t count. I mean, only 10 teams played, and Collingwood were gifted a home game, as the away team, because they didn’t want to jump on a plane. So, an irrelevant week (and I promise I’m not salty just because my Cats got mauled last week).
I’m keen to see new recruits, debutants, players in new colours, and if the desired result of speeding up the game and shortening quarters really happens with the new rules brought in.
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round One.
The Guarantee
Dan Gorringe will attend no more Carlton games after Thursday night’s game. If you have been living under a rock or neglect to engage with mainstream footy media content (I’m talking Dan Does Footy, not Channel 7 or Channel 9), Mr Gorringe has signed a binding contract to never ever again attend a Blues game if they lose to the Tigers. So, Mr Gorringe, I suggest you pick another team to ‘support’ and vicariously live through, as you won’t be going to any more Carlton games.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
West Coast have to forfeit Round Two after more injuries curtail their season. The Eagles are already missing as many as 12 players from their list, thanks to injury, and against the AFL’s Nepo Baby (sorry, I mean, The Suns), they will be run off their feet and decimated. If the Suns actually had two decent key forwards, they could be on for a record score in this one.
The Eagles will need to hope they can avoid more injuries.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
Don’t sleep on Melbourne. I know, yes, Kozzy Pickett has left the club indefinitely for personal reasons, and they lost Clarry and Trac in the post-season, and Steven May retired, but Steven King brings a wealth of experience, and teams with a new coach often show glimpses early. The Saints should, realistically, beat the Demons comprehensively, but if Kingy can get his boys playing well, they could ruffle a few feathers of the Saints. The Saints showed in last week’s practice match that they value defence instead of offence and want to make it a dour game. I think the Demons will take the game to them and create some chaos.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
A decimated Brisbane Lions beat the Swans. Yes, I’m going out a limb early this year. The Lions are missing five players from last week, through suspension (some very naughty boys) and injury. So, sans Hugh McCluggage, Logan Morris, Darcy Gardiner, Zac Bailey, and Harris Andrews, the reigning Premiers will flex their proverbial muscle and get the job done against the ‘we only play one quarter’ Swans.
Essential Result (Must Win)
Geelong need to respond after a disappointing performance last week on the Gold Coast. They return to Alphabet Stadium, blood a 206cm debutant, and may welcome back some superstars.
Questions linger about this Geelong side and what they can achieve in 2026. They need a mighty response at home against a Premiership contender in the Purple Haze who will want to ensure a repeat of last years round one contest fails to occur.
The Dockers can get the Cats in the midfield. Can they capitalise and give their forward line a genuine chance to kick a winning score? It’s not a foregone conclusion this one, but the Cats need the win more than the Dockers.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
Easy to put the Lions here, given their availability issues this week, but I will say the Power. With a new coach at the helm, the Power travel to Victoria to take on North Melbourne. While on paper this should be straightforward, nothing with North Melbourne is ever straightforward.
North will want to answer pre-season critics and aim to take some steps forward, and Port have been a genuine bag of licorice allsorts in recent seasons. If the Power is going to achieve anything at all this year, then they need to win this one.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
IT has to be the early Saturday game, under the Telstra Dome roof as the Dogs and orange team face off against each other. We know the hatred. We know the way both teams play. It should be a frenetic and physical contest under the roof. After the Giants overcame the Hawks at home, they will want to go to 2-0 with an away win, setting up their season nicely. However, the Dogs, having beaten the Lions at the GABBA, will be flying. They play a fun brand of footy – kick big scores and back themselves to kick more than their opponent.
The Giants boast an impressive forward line with plenty of firepower; the former Dog – the Package – is in great form. This should be an absolute beauty in perfect footy conditions. Strap yourselves in for a Saturday Special.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
The Crows are likely to be missing players at both ends of the ground. They have to come to the MCG and then renew their rivalry with the Pies … will there be yet another controversial non-call late in this one? We know the script, and under Saturday Night Lights, can the Crows pull off an early-season surprise, curtailing the Pies’ march? It is unlikely, but how good would it be for footy?
I’m going to back Darcy Fogarty to kick six to either get the Crom close, or win them the game.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
Zach Merrett. After the drawn-out desperation from his camp in the trade period, trying to escape his Essendon hostage situation, the former Dons skipper remains at the Hangar. The club and the player are trying to say everything is all sunshine and rainbows, but we know that isn’t correct. So, how will Merrett play against the club he so desperately wanted to join? Here’s to a bit of vintage 1980’s footy and a rekindling of this rivalry.
The Don (player of the round)
Given what Trac did against the Cats last week, he could legitimately kick 10 against the Eagles. I’ll back him in to kick at least 6, have 30+ touches, and dominant the game in a HUGE win for the Suns.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
There’s a host of players I could look at. Jagga Smith is too easy to pick here, I could choose Mitch Edwards at the Cattery, but I will settle with Dyson Sharp at the Bombers. He is one of a trio of debutants for Essendon this weekend and has looked at home in the big time across the pre-season. I’ve heard good things about him, he has big wraps, and I’m excited to see what he can deliver on Friday night.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
I will back Murphy ‘Ninja’ Reid to follow up his four-goal debut in R1 2025, at Cat Park, with a five-goal performance on Saturday. The Cats struggle with the hybrid mid-forwards and will struggle this week with Reid, unless they pick Jed Bews, which is unlikely.
The Winners (currently on 2)
Richmond
Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs
Geelong
Sydney
Collingwood
Port Adelaide
St Kilda
Gold Coast
These predictions were made with only the Thursday Night teams selected. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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