The footy season is almost upon us. Well, the real footy season, the one where every team is allowed to play and we don’t randomly schedule weird games for the nepo babies and St. Kilda.
It’s a new dawn for every club. Some are eager to turn their fortunes around and rise from the depths of the ladder, while others look to continue the form that has made them the powerhouses of years past.
As I have for the previous two seasons since joining the Mongrel Punt, I’m writing this column as a fun way to take an arbitrary look at a handful of teams that have caught my eye, and predict whether they’ll be sliders, or gliders, this AFL season.
There’s not much science behind the criteria (in fact, there’s none, this is football damnit!), so consider this one of my more provocative, opinion-based pieces. I know we like to turn our noses up at the SENs of the world from time to time here at the Mongrel, but every now and then it’s nice to indulge in a more vibes-based world.
Now, I usually get this piece out a little earlier, but I’ve spent the past two weeks cruising around the South Pacific Islands, and it turns out I really don’t care much about footy when I’m 10 gin and tonics deep on a beach in Vanuatu (also doesn’t help that my team isn’t deemed important enough to feature in the nepo baby round).
Anyway, before we dive into this year’s predictions, let’s look back at how I went last year.
As my sliders of 2025, I had the Swans, Hawks, and Bombers plummeting down the ladder in disappointing fashion.
The Hawks are the obvious outlier here for me, I thought they wouldn’t be able to back up their blistering end to 2024 and boy was I wrong, but I do feel pretty good about the Swans pick. The Essendon one felt like shooting fish in a barrell, so I won’t gloat too much on that.
For the gliders, I had GWS, Fremantle, and the Gold Coast.
Now this is a bit weird to assess. GWS technically didn’t rise or slide, they kind of just stagnated, while Fremantle certainly rose in terms of winning 16 games, but failed to win a final. The Suns obviously had their best season as a club, so I’ll take the win on that one.
So overall, from my six predictions, I’d say I got three pretty spot on, two you could go either way on, and one horribly wrong.
Alright, now that the accountability / embarrassment is out of the way, let’s dive into this year’s predictions.
Sliders
Adelaide
Now, I’ll preface this one by saying, I think the Crows are too good at Adelaide Oval to bottom out completely. So before all you South Australians burn me at the stake, I don’t have you snowballing down to the depths or making some drastic slide.
But do I have you winning 18 games and claiming the minor premiership, as you did last year? Certainly not.
The Crows are a funny team. For a side that spent so long down the bottom compiling draft picks, their young talent base doesn’t seem to run as deep as some other finals contending teams like the Gold Coast (for obvious reasons), Fremantle, or Hawthorn.
What I do like about them is their blend of serious talent like Riley Thillthorpe, Izak Rankine, and skipper Jordan Dawson supplemented by experienced players like Alex Neale-Bullen and Isaac Cumming.
But I look at their list and still see too many holes, where other contending sides feel a little closer to the complete product.
Their ruck situation is a complete unknown, I think they’re going to ask more of Taylor Walker than can be expected, and their back six without Mark Keane could be open slather on occasions.
I’ve got the Crows in the mix for a wildcard spot from that seven-to-10 range, which while still an admirable place to be, technically counts as a slide.
Hawthorn
You bet you’re ass I’m doubling down on the one prediction I got horribly wrong last year.
The Hawks may have left me with egg on my face, but you know what? I eat eggs for breakfast!
I am fully willing to accept I might be the only person left on this island – everything the Hawks have achieved in the past two seasons is staring me right in the face as I type this out, and still, I look at their list and I just find it really hard to see them featuring in preliminary final weekend again.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s obviously a very competitive outfit and I am by no means comparing them to the doldrums of the competition. I mean, I might be dumb, but I’m not stupid…
However, there’s a reason this club went so hard for a 30-year-old Zach Merrett. The midfield, particularly given Will Day can’t stay on the park, is not a group that strikes fear in the hearts of their opposition.
Newly elected captain Jai Newcombe has proven any doubters wrong and we simply must give him his flowers, but outside of that, who are they leaning on?
Connor Nash, Josh Ward, and Connor McDonald were the next three to feature most prominently in the Opening Round loss to the Giants, with spatters of Dylan Moore, Josh Weddle and Nick Watson.
They also received 60 goals from the 34-year-old Jack Gunston last year, and granted he kicked another four against GWS and barely looks like slowing down, but what are the odds he pulls that off again?
Overall, it’s much the same theory as the Crows – I certainly don’t see them sliding all the way down, but I’m not picking the Hawks to finish in the final four again.
Geelong
I’ll be honest, I’ve forced myself into a corner here having to pick three teams to slide down the ladder, but like the AFL with Opening Round I am plowing ahead heedless of the obvious shitstorm in front of me, and since I need to pick a third team I am taking the Cats.
Predicting the Cats to slide down the ladder is a tradition almost as ancient as their playing group, and it’s laced with poison. This is the team that NEVER slides, or if they do, it’s only for a year and then they offer some superstar a new farm and climb back up the ranks.
The other team I looked at for this spot was the Pies, for very similar reasons, but ultimately I have decided to back in the team that has Nick Daicos above the team that doesn’t (I did warn you there wasn’t any science to this yarn).
But ultimately, even if I hate having to make the argument, I need a reason the Cats are going to slide. For me, I see this season playing out very similarly to how 2023 played out for the Cats.
Coming off a deep September run that culminated in a premiership the year before, Geelong missed the finals with a 12th placed finish in 2023. I remember at the time it felt evident that the slog of a four-week finals run had taken its toll on the experienced group, and I feel a similar mountain may be standing in front of them this time around.
The same happened for Collingwood after winning the flag in 2023, and if you want an example from a different sport, the NBA’s Golden State Warriors of 2023 are a good one.
It’s a theme of older, more mature teams in sports having to give all they have to reach the pinnacle, and then perhaps needing a year to recharge or manage injuries picked up along the way.
Geelong are obviously capable of overcoming what looks like an uphill battle, but I’m going to tip them to slip down to the bottom end of the top eight.
Gliders
Sydney
Alright, onto the fun stuff, the gliders! And I suppose we should get the easy pick out of the way early.
I’m not exactly breaking ground here by tipping the Swans to have a dramatic rise up the ladder in 2026, but at this point it’s hard to deny.
Obviously the second-half shellacking they gave the Blues is probably having some kind of impact on this prediction, but even if that didn’t occur, most pundits have the red and white going deep into September this year.
The addition of Charlie Curnow can’t be understated. They took their biggest position of need and filled it with a player who most reasonable people would have among the top two or three key forwards in the competition.
But you can also just point to the way they played down the stretch last year when superstar midfielder Errol Gulden returned.
The dynamic smooth-mover spearheaded a resurgence for the Swans, and with him back in the fold, I think you’ll get the best out of Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney again.
Their defence is a bit suspect, but out of all the teams that could rise up the ladder this year, the Swans are the safest bet.
Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs of 2025 had that weird issue that can sometimes occur for teams stacked with top-heavy talent and not much underneath: They beat the bad teams to a pulp, and stunk up the joint against any of the serious clubs.
Look no further than how their season ended last year in a loss to the Dockers. Fremantle ran deeper, and had more contributors across the board.
Now, while the cause of that issue still largely exists for the Dogs (in the sense that they are still loaded with top-tier players and not much underneath), it’s hard to imagine they won’t sneak the odd win against a good side here and there.
I mean, they’ve already got one on the board beating Brisbane at the Gabba, and I don’t think a team with Marcus Bontempelli, Sam Darcy, Ed Richards and company will be dropping many unexpected games to bottom sides anytime soon.
So really, the theory is pretty simple: Win a couple more games against good sides while still demolishing the bottom sides, and the Dogs rise up the ranks.
Standing in their way is a defence that looks as capable of stopping goals as I am from stopping myself getting a zinger box after a big night out – that is to say, incapable!
The back six is putrid and there will be games where it is heavily exposed against stacked forward lines, but I think they’ll manage slightly better this year than last, based solely on the law of averages dictating they shouldn’t be that bad again, right?
Port Adelaide
Much like picking the Cats as my third slider, it was bloody hard to find a third team that will shoot up the ladder this year.
The Suns felt too easy after their demolition of the Cats in Opening Round, I didn’t want to pick Freo for a third straight year, and I’ll be damned if I am putting any kind of faith in the Saints.
That left me with Port, and honestly, I’m pretty happy with picking the Power for a moderate rise up the ladder in 2026.
It’s a bit of shallow analysis (which is on theme with this entire article, to be fair), but I just look at their midfield stars and find it hard to see them languishing with the Essendons and North Melbournes of the world again.
Zak Butters has Brownlow capability, Connor Rozee appears to have moved back to the midfield (where he belongs), and hopefully Jason Horne-Francis can get the body right because we’ve seen enough of him to know he can be a game-wrecker at his best.
Up front Mitch Georgiades is coming off a career best year where he arrived as one of the AFL’s most imposing key targets, and I’m keen to see the progression of young Joe Berry.
Again, this isn’t a drastic rise I’m predicting, but Port Adelaide was among the teams hardest hit for injury last season, so with a healthier list it’s fair to expect better footy.
They finished last season with nine wins, and it’s easy to see a world where they nab three or four more than that.
So that’s a wrap on this year’s predictions. I’ll bet Hawthorn win the fucking flag now…
