As Marc Pittonet kicked the second of his three goals for the game, the Blues pushed out to a 22-point lead, and a big upset seemed on the cards.
Truth is, the Blues felt like a better team in the first half. They pressured the Swans, beat them in the midfield, and probably should have been up by more. However, what came next wasn’t just a turnaround. It was a destruction.
The Swans rammed on 12 goals in the third quarter, as they completely obliterated the Blues, and sapped both the run from their legs, and the hope from their hearts.
This contest had all the drama you could need leading in. Not only did the Swans acquire Charlie Curnow in a blockbuster trade that many believe push them back into the Premiership window, but the Blues landed a couple of very handy players in Ollie Florent and Will Hayward, rounding out a list that is less reliant on the big runs. All had plenty to prove.
The first official game of Jagga Smith, the return of a fully fit Errol Gulden, and the chance to see Sam Walsh injury free for the first time in a fair while, gave plenty to look forward to.
In the end, the Swans ran away with it – a 63-point win after looking like they could be in a bit of trouble. The stars stood up when Dean Cox asked them to, and suddenly, a Sydney team that looked all at sea in the first half, opened the eyes of everyone in the AFL, as to what is possible.
Let’s jump into the first edition of The Big Questions for 2026, as we dive deep into the nitty gritty of the big Sydney win.
First game of the year – leaving this one open for all. If you like what you reasd, there is a link to become a Mongrel Member, or to buy me a coffee at the end of the article. Cheers
WHAT CHANGED AFTER HALFTIME?
A few things.
The Swans started to run the footy and take the game on. They handballed from marks, played on at an alarming rate, and looked like they wanted to test Carlton, to see if the Blues could go with them.
Spoiler alert – they couldn’t.
We saw a little bit of it in the second quarter, as Chad Warner elevated his output (he had seven touches) but after halftime, the other big names came to the fore. From there, the Blues were toast.
Nick Blakey attacked the contest hard. His numbers don’t reflect his contributions as much as they do for his teammates, but little taps ons, and a timely spoil here and there started the ball rolling. His kick in traffic to start the Swans rolling toward goal at one stage was perfect. Pressure around him – no problems. Just made the 25 metre pass, and the Swans were off to the races.
Isaac Heeney recovered from a knee to the head from former teammate, Ollie Florent, picking up 13 touches and two goals for the term.
And Justin ‘Plugger’ McInerney almost turned this into his own personal show, slotting three goals for the quarter, and missing one more.
However, from where I sat, it was the lift from Errol Gulden that made the biggest difference.
Dean Cox played him forward in the first half. An interesting choice that saw Gulden manage just eight touches and very little impact. As Sydney fumbled and bumbled their way through the first quarter, even Errol was unable to be clean with the footy.
But in that third quarter, the cream rose to the top, and if the Swans were to call one player the cream of the crop, my money would be on Gulden.
Switching between the middle and half-forward, Gulden took over. He worked down into defensive fifty and spearheaded their rebound. He ran through the middle with impunity – too fast, too fit, too classy for the Blues to lay a glove on him. He had six score involvements for the quarter, including two direct goal assists, and his chains of possession continually gave the Blues fits.
Who could stop him? Who did the Blues have with the run in the legs to slow him down?
They had no answers. When Sam Walsh was getting off the chain in the first quarter, Dean Cox threw James Jordon at him to slow him down in the second.
Michael Voss had no such luxury. However, that is not a free pass for the Carlton coach – he didn’t really seem to try, did he?
Gulden had 27 touches in total, added 11 tackles, and pumped the footy inside 50 on eight occasions. Yes, the Swans had a heap of difference-makers. The Fox Footy team were giving the commentary version of a blowjob to Tom Papley, but the engine room made the difference for the Swans, and the part that was missing in the first half was Errol Gulden.
He is a pleasure to watch.
WAS THIS JUSTIN MCINERNEY’S BEST GAME AS A SWAN?
It is probably better asked of a Sydney supporter, but in terms of impact and presence, that is about the best I’ve seen him.
McInerney did a bit of everything. There have been times throughout his career when I’ve thought he tried a bit too hard to be a tough guy. It has resulted in suspensions, and silly free kicks again, but there comes a time when toughness and courage are tested, and McInerney had that as he got stuck under the footy with Cooper Lord bearing down on him.
He didn’t flinch. He stood there, took the contact, and took the mark.
Forget the argy-bargy stuff – it is moments like this that forge your reputation, and when a player like McInerney stands up in a moment like that and puts his body on the line, it grants that player the respect of his teammates.
McInerney finished with 31 touches and added three goals (all in that dominant third term).
Adding another string to his bow, he also moved through the midfield in the second half, and created plenty for teammates, including one excellent forward handball to set up the running Heeney for goal.
His best-ever game?
For now, at least. There’s a reason the Swans signed him to a mutli-year deal, after all.
CAN WE HAVE A LOOK AT EACH OF THE NEW FACES AND HOW THEY WENT?
Yeah, why not?
CHARLIE CURNOW
Some nerves early on, as he failed to kick a major in the first half. Playing on Jacob Weitering for the most part, there are very few easy kicks.
Worked his way into the game as his team got on top, and three goals is a pretty handy result for his first outing for the club.
WILL HAYWARD
Was up and about early on, slotting the second goal of the game after working up the ground a bit.
Not disgraced, but this was the type of game that the Swans were critical of him for – a moments player and lacking the consistency.
OLLIE FLORENT
Has a bit of a sore knee with some blonde hairs embedded in it, and nobody can work out how they got there.
We’ll have a think about it…
Looked to have a bit of a chip on his shoulder, and other than Curnow, drew the most opposition attention.
One of the Blues’ best in the first half, but faded after halftime, along with 75% of their team. Struggled by foot when the heat was on in the third.
JAI SERONG
Spent most of the first half running around on the wing, and was close to being the Swans’ best at the main break.
Had 15 of his 19 touches in the first half before reverting to the defensive role he was recruited to play. He is a very important player to the balance of Sydney, as his size enables him to play big on the wing, or get back and clog up the leading lanes inside defensive 50. I reckon this’ll become more apparent as the season progresses.
MALCOLM ROSAS
Flittered in and out of the game and may have been a little too eager to get on his bike, at points, leaving the footy behind a couple of times.
Ten touches and a goal were serviceable, and his competitive spirit demonstrated that he is all-in on his new team.
CAMPBELL CHESSER
Like most of his teammates, started well and had some positive influence on the wing. Played quite a defensive wing role, folding back into the defensive fifty quite oten. This can work when you’re paired with an offensive-minded partner. That was Cooper Lord (seven inside 50s) in this game, so the Blues have a bit to work with here, and it will take a few repetitions of these two working together to get their pairing right.
How that plays out when Blake Acres returns will be interesting to watch.
JAGGA SMITH
Another one who was very influential early, and whilst he finished strong (nine last quarter touches) the game was gone.
That said, 27 touches on debut is nothing to sneeze at, and at this stage, the consensus is that he has one hand on the Ron Evans Medal for 2026… which is a good thing, because it isn’t very big.
In all seriousness, he has shown every sign that he is going to be a major contributor for the Blues for a long time.
HARRY DEAN
Solid. Really solid playing a role that should have seen him completely overmatched, particularly as the Swans pummelled the Blues in the second half.
14 touches, six intercepts, and seven one-percenters, is a fantastic return for a debut from a young big man.
BEN AINSWORTH
Kicked two, and could have had three. I found it funny that his efforts to kick a long goal in the first half were lauded because it worked, but when he tried it in the second half, the experts talked him down and said he needed to be better.
Because he didn’t kick the goal.
Basically the same situation and a different result. Padded some stats in the last quarter, with half of his 14 touches coming in what was essentially junk time.
LIAM REIDY
I almost forgot to put his name in – that’s how much I noticed him in this game.
Won some hit outs, hacked the footy when he had it, and that’s about it. He is big though…
DOES FLORENT HAVE ANYTHING TO WORRY ABOUT?
Other than the way his team fell to bits in the second half, no, he doesn’t.
I seriously couldn’t believe my ears when I head the Fox Footy experts debating whether Florent was “careless” in kneeing Isaac Heeney in the head. Seriously, are we that determined to create a headline that we’ll take an obvious accident, and start talking about any malice involved?
Most sensible people believe he will not even be cited.
Of course, if you’re a reddit user, then everyone is guilty of everything, ever, and it’s sIx WeEkS. I swear the softest people on the internet congregate there.
WAS CHAD WARNER BACK TO HIS BEST?
Not quite.
As damaging as hell, and that first few steps to break away from trouble seem to be back, but there is still a bit of work to be done.
Warner started forward, and whilst he managed to get his hands on the footy in the second quarter, his radar around goals was off for most of the game.
The pleasing aspect was how dangerous he looked when he did have the footy. He was able to assess what was around him, dare and opponent to try to tackle him, and drop the hammer to run away from them.
A couple of years back, Chad had the type of run that reminded me of the way Dustin martin played. There was a genuine “stop me if you can” attitude about him in 2024, and even though that wasn’t entirely present in 2025, there were definite elements on display in this one.
Is it an attitudinal thing?
I don’t think so. I reckon Chad has done the work this off-season. He looks in fantastic nick, and the way he was able to blow his opponent away with is leg speed indicates that he could be set for a massive season.
WHAT DO THE BLUES NEED?
There is no quick fix to remedy what occurred in this contest, but the good news is that not every team possesses players in the midfield the likes of Heeney, Warner, and Gulden, and as such, not every team is going to be able to burn off the Carlton mids at will.
Leg speed was an obvious worry. Walsh ran his guts out, and to expect Jagga Smith to get in there and mix it up with blokes who have had anywhere from four to nine preseasons, is a bit unrealistic.
Even a bloke like Cooper Lord was unable to keep up with the Swans’ mids when they got up and running, and the pairing of Cripps and Hewett were never going to be able to do that.
But where does that speed come from?
Looking at the list, there doesn’t seem much outside of Walsh and Smith that have the capacity to run with opposition mids. The eventual return of Adam Cerra will help, but the Blues may have to start setting up a very defensive midfield as a default option to prevent that quick clearance either forward or sideways out of stoppage.
PRIOR TO THE 12-GOAL QUARTER, WHAT THE HELL WAS GOING ON WITH THE SYDNEY SKILLS?
A 12-goal quarter will make you forget. It’s like having a baby – women go through all that pain and then they have this beautiful child and they think… I want another one.
They forget about the horror that came before the delivery!
I’m not going to let you forget how abhorrent Sydney were before they delivered their 12-goal pride and joy! The Blues weren’t brilliant, but their hardness at the contest saw them eke out a lead. The Swans were abysmal.
I was sitting here looking at the tactics – Gulden up forward, Warner up forward, Jordan not running with anyone – and I was shaking my head.
Evidently, Dean Cox absolutely knew what he was doing, but at the time, by God they looked horrible.
Logan McDonald was fumbling and bumbling everything that came his way. Tom McCartin dropped a chest mark that led to Brodie Kemp snapping a goal. And the midfield couldn’t get their hands on the footy – I swear, Angus Sheldrick looked as though he’d never seen an oval-shaped ball in his life the way he was disposing of it. For the first half an hour, the only highlight for Swans fans was singing along with Neil Diamond at quarter time.
Yes, a 12-goal quarter will wallpaper of a huge amount of cracks, but against a team that has the skills and the fitness to slow things down and halt the momentum, a half as poor as the Swans’ first half will ultimately cost them.
COME ON, HB… SURELY THERE WERE SOME POSITIVE SIGNS FOR THE BLUES?
Yeah, there were.
The entire first half, you could not fault the Blues’ endeavour.
Sam Walsh attacked the footy well and showed no signs of any back-related issues, which is a wonderful sign. Jagga Smith looked at home, whilst Jacob Weitering held Charlie Curnow quite well.
Cooper Lord won plenty of the footy, Elijah Hollands found a fair bit of it, even if he kicked like a mule, Will Hayward could have really put the Swans under the pump had he kicked straight.
Of course, it was all for naught, as the Swans rampaged over the top of the Blues in the second half, but if were looking for some positives, those would be the major ones.
DOES TOM PAPLEY HAVE NUDES OF THE FOX FOOTY SPECIAL COMMENTS TEAM?
I think he must.
After spending a large amount of time on the bench, Papley was inserted into the game for about ten minutes in the first quarter, and I swear both Jack Riewoldt and David ‘Orc’ King, almost wet themselves.
As a matter of fact, every time Papley went near it, they both fell over themselves to praise him, levelling such accolades at him as talking up his enthusiasm.
Hell, I wish some of the women I’ve dated over the years were as complimentary about my enthusiasm!
Really, Paps had a middling game. Nine touches, one goal, and five score involvements.
It’s likely nine touches, one goal, and five score involvements more than I’d have, but if you need someone to run around out there and act excited, I could do that.
He has a lot more to give.
And he should hold onto those nudes for a day when he is not playing so well.
HOW DID WE SEE THE RUCK BATTLE?
Grundy was absolutely determined to snag a goal in the final quarter, wasn’t he? You kind of get the feeling he needed it.
The new ruck rules didn’t really impact either of these blokes, who played the centre bounces pretty similarly to the way they did last year. Both are more your stand-and-deliver types, so I reckon there was a bit of comfort in looking across the line and seeing the other there.
That said, Pittonet’s forward work put Grundy back on his heels, and on one occasions, dropped him on his arse, as Pitt just disposed of him to take a contested mark.
Whilst Grundy dominated the hit outs (the Swans were +14 overall), Pittonet did some pretty impressive follow-up work, registering eight clearances (+5 on Grundy) and had two additional disposals.
On reputation, you’d think a lot more was expected from Grundy than Pittonet in this one, and given that, I reckon we have to give the Carlton ruck a fair bit of credit.
And I covered Liam Reidy, above. In short, not much to see with him. I thought the same last season when I watched him play at Freo.
IS JOEL AMARTEY THE RIGHT SECOND RUCK OPTION?
It’s funny – the Swans are now spoiled for choice inside 50. The arrival of Curnow changes everything, but also places pressure on the remaining talls to work hard for their positions.
Whilst Amartey’s three goals obviously hold him in good stead, the fact he had just two hit outs means that the Swans leaned heavily on Grundy. As much of a workhorse Grundy is, he probably needs a bit of a rest at times, now. He is 31, so the Swans are going to have to be smart about how they use him.
That’ll mean either of Amartey, Hayden McLean, or Peter Ladhams plays at points.
Evidently, Amartey is the first option, but the Swans need to be intelligent with when and how they use him in the ruck. You don’t want Amartey going in there to compete with a brute like Pittonet, but in this game they had no real choice, as the Blues had another brute named Liam Reidy.
He can work against a team who also uses a tall forward as their back up ruck (Suns, Cats, Bombers, Noth, to name a few) but against teams that play two designated ruck, the Swans are either going to have to hope Grundy has the tank to play 80% of the game in the ruck, or they’re going to have to bring in McLean or Ladhams to share the load.
QUICKIES
So… how are those shorter quarters going?
The third quarter went for over 40 minutes, as the Swans just kept on scoring! Greg Swann will probably send a memo to Sydney and tell them to settle the hell down.
David King in the second quarter – “What a game!”
What the hell was he watching? It was two goals to three, with over 45 minutes of footy gone at that stage. Filling dead air…
Really liking what I see when Matt Roberts plays on the wing. Both teams rotated a few through, but early scoring in the Robbie Flower Wingman of the Year Award will likely see both Roberts and Cooper Lord have a good opening week.
Harry McKay had four of his 13 touches inside 50. Tom McCartin seemed more than content to send him off on his long journeys up to the wings to get a touch. That his only goal came from pinching a rare Heeney poor handball speaks volumes about how stingy McCartin is,
It also may speak a bit of how far off it Harry is. He doesn’t attack teh footy anywhere near as hard as any Carlton fan would want to see.
The lazy nine tackles for James Rowbottom. I had a Swans fan message me on X last year telling me how shit Rowbottom is. I am not sure that he sees what his role is. Defence-oriented mids that still win seven clearances are a massive bonus when you have three stars running around in the guts. I reckon some people just have an agenda against a certain player, make their mind up, and from there, nothing will change it. I hope Rowbottom breaks 200 tackles this season. Off to a great start.
The Blues really got sucked in during that third quarter, didn’t they? I was surprised to see Patrick Cripps so easily riled up by Justin McInerney, but there he was, throwing him to the deck and giving away a free kick after a goal was scored.
Paddy… the Swans didn’t need your help to kick goals, mate. They were doing fine all by themselves. Generosity/foolishness. I know he was embarrassed and probably angry at watching his team being pummelled, and effectively watching the beginning of his AFL twilight circling the drain, but you’re better than that.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Do we jump on the Swans now?
Do we jump off the Blues?
Neither. The season is not a sprint – it is a marathon. The Swans got a perfect storm of a Carlton team without speed, and their own midfield being kick started by stars finding form. There is no guarantee this is the case every week.
Ditto for the Blues – they just encountered a team that grew another leg. How they perfrom against the Tigers will give us a better perspective on where they sit. And the Swans… well, all they get are the reigning premiers. Gotta say, if they kock the Lions over, people will take a lot more notice of that result than this one.
And that might just do me. I went a little loosey-goosey with the format this time. First game back and all.
As always, massive thanks to those who support this work. You can see the amount of care that goes into it. I love footy, I love writing about it, and I hope you enjoy reading it. Without you, this whole thing falls over. Sincerely… thank you – HB
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