Beyond 2026 – The Future of State of Origin

For many, the concept of State of Origin Football in Aussie Rules is a foreign concept.

Not to old buggers like me, of course. I, as I’m sure many of you do, have great memories of the heated Victoria versus South Australia and Victoria versus Western Australia clashes through the 80s and up until halfway through the 90s.

However, unless you’re in at least your mid-thirties, my guess is that you haven’t really seen what State of Origin can offer.

It should be noted that great players like Robert Flower, Paul Roos, Mark Ricciuto, and Gary Buckenara all spoke glowingly about the pride of representing their respective states and never had a hesitation to pull on the state jumpers. It was the highest level of footy available, with the best of the best competing, and nothing but pride on the line. And then you have the footballing legends who lived and breathed these rivalries – Ted Whitten Neil Kerley, and Stephen Michael. There has always been the spectre of these greats hanging over every State of Origin game.

And yet, as the AFL became a more national competition, the state versus state rivalry withered, with crowds no longer flocking to the games to see champions of the game represent their home states.

This malaise was echoed by the players, who were suddenly finding new and inventive ways to duck out of playing, in favour of giving their clubs – the blokes who paid them – everything they had.

And in an effort to include everyone, the AFL moved away from the more traditional clashes of the ‘Big Three’ states to offer combined sides that represented several other states/territories.

As such, it has been 27 years since State of Origin Football has been part of the annual footy calendar. The question is – will it remain part of the pre-season? The follow-up is – will the novelty quickly wear off once this year and the expected 2027 fixture of South Australia versus Victoria draws a crowd?

I expect this contest to be a success. I expect next year to be a success, as well.

But it is 2028 that I expect the concept to either sink or swim, and it won’t be the players who decide if it ends up afloat or under the water. It’ll be the AFL.

You see, Western Australia versus Victoria is an easy sell. There is a long-standing rivalry there, and plenty of people who have an ingrained dislike for the opposing side. The same goes for when South Australia steps forward to face Victoria in 2027. That game basically sells out the Adelaide Oval in an instant.

But do the AFL have the balls to promote a State of Origin clash as the marquee game of the pre-season without looking after the Big V? Will they run a South Australia versus Western Australia and run the risk of alienating their biggest TV market?

They have to. They cannot drop the ball on this. Unlike just about everything else they try.

The reason the NRL’s version of State of Origin is so wildly popular can be measured by a number of things.

Firstly, the consistency of the product. They don’t umm and ahh about it on an annual basis. Origin is a jewel in the NRL season. It is a big deal because it is treated like a big deal. It’s New South Wales versus Queensland.

Every.

Single.

Year.

Second, the players treat it as though it is an honour. It becomes something that they can point to on their CV and everyone knows just how important playing in those games is.

And they make no apologies. They don’t cobble together a second-tier of teams to represent Victoria, South Australia, or WA. No, their concept is what it is, and if you don’t like it, you can find something else to watch.

Their viewership for these games is on par with both their own, and AFL Grand Final numbers. Not exactly, but in the same ballpark.

In short, they cultivate the concept. They care for it, and provide every opportunity for it to grow and flourish.

And in Aussie Rules, the concept has sat dormant for over a quarter of a century.

In order for the league to make this work, they have to be willing to make this something players want on their CVs. In 15 years’ time, having “six-time State of Origin representative” on the graphic under your name needs to mean something, and playing it once or twice and then stalling because Victoria is not involved is not the way to go about it. Actually, it makes having “six-time representative” bloody impossible!

Leadership has not been this administration’s strong suit, but this is something that can become a legacy item for Andrew Dillon’s time in office. To lead State of Origin back to prominence over a five or six-year period and make it work again would be a huge feather in his cap. A one-off, or a two-year run means bugger all, and adds to the pile of poorly thought out decisions.

They need to stay the course, and they need to push through to make SA v WA just as big a spectacle in two years’ time, as they are with this season, and with Vic v SA next year.

People will tell you these games means nothing, and maybe they don’t. Maybe the players waltz out onto the field and play a bruise-free brand of circle work for two hours, and everyone sighs and waits for the “real stuff”.

But we need to factor in pride. It is a powerful weapon at the disposal of this game. And if not pride in the state or the jumper, there has to be pride in the players’ own performance.

Are there defenders like Jacob Weitering going to be content with allowing someone like Jake Waterman a clean run at the footy? Will he be happy having six kicked on him?

Or what about Sam Taylor? Is anyone expecting him not to take the body of Ben King and hammer the footy away in an aerial contest?

You think Tom Barrass is just gonna let Sam Darcy leap at the footy without a body on him?

Those stating that players will be taking it easy are not factoring in the players’ own competitive juices. Some guys just get white line fever. And it is this that could turn this game into something special, and lay the foundation for a full-time return of the concept.

The players want this to work.

None of them are talking the concept down.

But I will be watching the spirit in which it is played, the amount of support to do it all again next year, and whether the league has the guts to step away from the Vic-centric programming to eventually offer a WA versus SA standalone game at some stage as to whether the administration of the league genuinely wants it to be back. Or whether they just like shiny new things.

 

As always, massive thanks to those who support this work. You can see the amount of care that goes into it. I love footy, I love writing about it, and I hope you enjoy reading it. Without you, this whole thing falls over. Sincerely… thank you – HB

Like this content? You could buy me a coffee – I do like coffee, but there is no guarantee I won’t use it to buy a doughnut… I like them more. And I am not brought to you by Sportsbet or Ladbrokes… or Bet365, or any of them.