Plenty are writing the Blues off.
Some are doing so based on the loss of Charlie Curnow, which has some validity to it. He is, after all, one of the top two key forwards in the game. He is also a couple of years removed from playing his absolute best footy. That is often forgotten.
The other reason stems from training footage circulated online which wasn’t very flattering.
Disregard that. It was not a high-intensity session and the boys were in second gear.
However, the Blues may not yet be the spent force many believe they are. They finally unveil their prized 2024 Draft Pick, Jagga Smith, they pick up two experienced workers from the Swans, and have enlisted a former Sun to bolster their small forward ranks.
This, whilst losing a player that managed just 32 goals last season?
Is that the complete loss that some are prophesising? Did I just make that word up? Spellcheck seems to think so.
Carlton are not without their worries, mind you. Their defence is aging like milk, and they also lost the young ruckman that many thought would benefit most from the changing rules, and their leader seems to be coaching for his life.
Never a dull moment at Carlton, is there?
If you’re reading all our previews, you can skip ahead a little bit – It’s the standard intro.
We’re steaming toward a new season, and as we do, it is time to turn our attention away from the glory of last year and look at the possibilities of the new one.
The players have been on the track for a while now – the work is intensifying as we move onto February, and the charge into the new season ramps right up.
This is where premierships are won and lost. This is where improvements are made and lists come together. This is where the kids show if they’re serious or not, and young projects become the next group of stars. New faces, new colours, old heads with renewed passion… so much feeds into the making of a contender. And as the days tick down toward the intra-club clashes, practice games, and eventually the real stuff, questions are raised about each team and how they’re going to perform in this new season.
And that’s where HB and The Mongrel come in.
We don’t do things by halves here, at The Mongrel Punt. When we do a season preview, we go all in to make sure it is the best, most comprehensive coverage you’ll receive. We pride ourselves on it. If you want to read one season preview for your team, or any team, this series will provide what you’re after.
The way it works is as follows.
Each club has a minimum of 15 questions asked about the upcoming season, their coaches, their players, and their expectations. The answers are not glossed over. We dive deep on each and every one of them – some singular answers would normally be long enough for an entire column. The first five questions/answers are free for you to consume. The next 10-14 for each club are for our members, including a special appearance from Mrs Mongrel to throw her two cents in the mix.
Isn’t it a bit early for a season preview? Well, I suppose, but do you know how long it takes to write seven-to-nine thousand words? That’s 18 x 8,000… gets out the calculator… that’s 144,000 words. The average novel is about 85,000 words, so buckle the hell up with these previews; HB goes deeper than anyone else covering the game..
Also, if there are any issues that arise after the publication of the preview for any team, they will be covered in standalone articles to act as additions to this preview.
You will not read a more comprehensive season preview than this – I guarantee it. This is where we start the run to the new season, and believe me – nobody does it better than The Mongrel.
Let’s jump into the season preview for the Blues
1 – CAN THE FORWARD LINE FUNCTION MORE COHESIVELY WITHOUT CHARLIE CURNOW?
I know on the surface, this sounds like an idiotic question. I mean, we’re talking about one of the top two forwards in the competition, with the other being Jeremy Cameron.
How can a team function better without him?
Well, I am sure there will be some Carlton supporters that disagree, but the Blues fell into the trap of becoming a team that relied heavily on one form of attack over the last few years. It may have been out of necessity at times, but whenever I watched Carlton, the long bomb to the vicinity of Charlie Curnow was used far too often, and it ended up a situation where it was Carlie, or bust.
And it ended in a bust far too often.
I get it – some players seem to have some type of gravitational pull that comes to the attention of ball carriers. It doesn’t seem to matter if they’re out of position, have two players on them, or are caught behind – the footy goes in their direction and they’re expected to make it work.
At his best, Charlie Curnow could make it work, but over 2024/25, he was a bit off his best and the Blues failed to make the necessary adjustments to work around that.
Without him there, they have no choice in the matter.
The danger, I suppose, is that the Blues fall into the same trap by replacing Charlie with Harry… sounds like a royal line of succession, doesn’t it? Throw a William in there and we’d be set.
McKay is a magnet up forward, as well, but he is no Curnow. Not now, anyway.
A Carlton attack, if it is to be successful, has to find several avenues to goal. McKay can remain the focal point, sure, but they need other options bobbing up and kicking a few each and every week to diversify their attack.
Will Hayward provides a good mid-sized target inside 50. He is capable of kicking three or four on any given week.
Brodie Kemp is a work in progress, and will require game time to warm into his role.
And Zach Williams will have to find a way to continue to impact the scoreboard.
In amongst that, we have McKay, who needs to rediscover the confidence that made him one of the better marking targets in the game whilst Curnow was out injured. Of course, that was five years ago, and there is a pretty significant chance that Harry may never be the player he was back then.
However, with Curnow as the focal point, he never really got an extended chance.
Of course, we have to factor in how Harry has struggled, himself, with a range of issues in the last few years. This may be an ongoing issue he needs to manage, and if so, it leaves the Carlton forward line looking pretty thin.
2 – WHAT DOES A FIT SAM WALSH MEAN TO THIS TEAM?
I’ll start with this statement – this is supposed to be the start of Sam Walsh’s prime years. Actually, that was supposed to be last year, really, but given the back injury he suffered a couple of years back, and the assorted injury issues since, Walsh has been unable to do what the Blues hoped he’d do by now.
2025 was a let down. It seems like I could write that in regard to most of the team, but for Walsh, having an interrupted start and then sitting out the middle of the season robbed the Blues of one of their prime movers, and a young man who was earmarked as the one to carry this club forward.
Is he still that player, or are we now moving onto shiny new things, like Jagga Smith?
For me, Smith will come along nicely in his own time, and we’ll get to him a bit later on, but while he finds himself at AFL level, it is time we actually refocus on Walsh and what he is capable of if he gets a clan run at it.
A fit Sam Walsh is finally ready to take the torch from Patrick Cripps.
Crippa has been shouldering the load for years on end, and deserves the support at this stage of his career. With Walsh hampered, that torch passing has been delayed, but it is still happening.
Prior to the hamstring injury that all but put a fork in the Blues, Walsh was travelling well, but seemed to lack power to burst from contests. As such, his clearance numbers were down, as were his inside 50 deliveries. If anything, I found him more likely to play a defensive mid role, drifting back to cut off errant disposals and help the defence more.
I’m not sure that was the best way to use Walsh, but given the physical limitations, I can understand why.
Carlton track watchers are quick to report that Walsh is once again displaying that burst power around stoppages, so I expect his offensive numbers to climb once more. With all due respect to George Hewett, who has done a wonderful job in elevating the level of his own play, if he is the one leading the club in disposals this season, we’re not seeing what we need from the Blues.
Walsh is the man you want to see averaging 28-30 touches per game, and finally taking that torch from Crippa’s hand.
Whilst many eyes will be on Jagga Smith and how he slots into this Blues midfield, keep a close eye on the way Sam Walsh attacks the first few rounds. He knows he has been let down by his body, and in turn, has let down the club. He is the player the Blues will be putting their faith in as he emerges as a strong All-Australian contender for the first time since 2021.
Do not bet against him – he is driven this season.
3 – IS BEN AINSWORTH THE SMALL FORWARD THE BLUES HAVE BEEN SEARCHING FOR?
Whether the club or supporters admit it, this has been a massive Achilles Heel for the club for years on end.
They have rolled through a bunch of small forwards in an attempt to find the right mix, but I have often found that, aside from the occasional player bobbing up and having one good year, the Blues have lacked quality at this position
Here’s a list of names that have been the most potent small forwards in Navy Blue over the past ten years.
2016 – Matthew Wright – 22 goals
2017 – Matthew Wright – 30 goals
2018 – Matthew Wright – 21 goals
2019 – Michael Gibbons – 16 goals
2020 – Eddie Betts – 13 goals
2021 – Eddie Betts – 27 goals
2022 – Zac Fisher – 18 goals
2023 – Matt Owies – 27 goals
2024 – Matt Owies – 33 goals
2025 – Jesse Motlop – 17 goals
They’ve also plonked Zach Williams inside 50 over the last couple of years, but he is more a medium-size forward with little in the way of legspeed these days.
So, is Ainsworth the answer they’ve been looking for?
Let’s explore.
Ainsworth promised much at Gold Coast. I had some people telling me he should have been considered for the All-Australian team a few years back, but I never really thought that should be the case. He was a high draft pick (pick four in 2016) but has not really elevated himself to a level that would provide a consistent threat around goal.
In order to break the run over ordinary (Fisher, Gibbons, Wright), older (Betts), or crap (Fisher) small forwards, Ainsworth needs to have a season where jumps out of the box.
His career-best numbers for disposals are 17.7 back in 2023, whilst he has averaged a goal per game or a tick over, four times in his career, never exceeding 1.1.
That doesn’t sound to me like someone who is going to suddenly find his niche and become a 35+ goal kicker this season.
So really, what I am saying is no… he won’t be the answer, and I was hoping that a combination of him and Jesse Motlop may be able to combine to provide the Blues with an effective one-two punch. That went up in flames when Motlop was ruled out of the 2026 season with an ACL injury.
That leaves Ainsworth as the main small forward, working in tandem, with Francis Evans or Lachie Fogarty.
Ouch.
The Blues have been mediocre at the position for years, and sadly, I don’t see that ending in 2026. Ainsworth is a good player, but he is not going to give the Blues what they need in the role. He would make a nice complimentary player, working as a high half-forward, but around goals, he has never demonstrated he could kick a bag (four is his career-high, just once) and lift those around him.
I’m afraid the search continues for the Blues, with the best they could hope for being a solid, serviceable season from Ainsworth, and if he manages to approach the levels of his 2023 form, it’s a bonus.
4 – WHAT DOES CAMPBELL CHESSER PROVIDE IN 2026?
Uncertainty? Hope? Opportunity?
Chesser’s time at West Coast was riddled with injury. After missing his entire rookie campaign, he started to find his place in the team, only to fall afoul of injury again in 2025, limited to just four games.
In four years with the Eagles, he has averaged nine games a season.
But what if he gets his body right?
He is largely an unknown quantity at this stage, playing wing and off the flanks for the Eagles, but never really finding a role to call his own. Does he do that at Carton?
He basically spent the whole year on the sidelines last year, returning for the last four games of the year to average 16.8 touches per game. Those games included his only outing of 20+ disposals of his career. Another first round pick (14 in 2021), you get the feeling that season either makes or breaks him as a player in the league.
Where would you play him in the current Carlton lineup?
He seems far too fragile to throw into the middle, so an outside role seems the most likely. On a wing opposite Blake Acres could see him with room to move, and may offer him the opportunity to find the footy with time. It seems he needs it.
Chesser ran at just 58% disposal efficiency in his four 2025 games. This was down from 71% the year before, so it is not a pattern… yet.
At Carlton, Chesser is offered the opportunity to reinvent himself as a player. He just never seemed to fit in with what was going on at West Coast. His body let him down, and as a result, he let them down.
He is contracted for two years with the Blues and needs to play 15+ games this season to warrant their investment in him. It’s harsh, I know, but the Blues can ill-afford to become the home for players who failed to perform elsewhere.
5 – IS NIC NEWMAN MORE IMPORTANT THAN PEOPLE REALISE?
Some may look at Nic Newman and see an ageing half-back with maybe a year left to run on his AFL career.
He’s 33-years-old, he’s coming off a year where he didn’t play as he recovered from a patella injury, and he has a year left to run on his deal. Playing out time, right?
Nah… I don’t think so. Nic Newman provides three things that were sorely missing from the 2025 Blues.
Mongrel, passion, and heart.
When you watch a team lapse, you can learn a lot about individual players. There are some who accept their fate and go quietly into the night. The other sort are like Newman – they fight it out, and they bloody well care!
In the 2024 Elimination Final, he was one of the few Carlton players who looked like he genuinely gave a shit. That doesn’t mean that others didn’t, and if you wish to paint it that way, so be it. But what I saw from him in that game was a guy who knew his team could have given more, and he was pissed off about it.
His side was getting slaughtered, and at one stage the scoreline read 60-0, but whilst the Blues were able to fight back (too little too late) and get the margin to a respectable 21-points at the final bell, the real fight was Nic Newman flying the flag for his team. He was angry, he was upset, and he was determined to show his team how to stand up.
His return to the Blues defence gives them someone who will stand his ground and flat-out prevent teams from running over the top of his team, physically. He is getting on, and I am sure this’ll be his last roll of the dice, but if there is one player on the Carlton list that will go down swinging, it is Nic Newman.
There are a few that could learn a lot from him, and I hope that over the course of the 2026 season, we see more than a couple of Blues start to follow his lead and stand up for the club.
It’s been far too long in the wilderness, and being nice about it isn’t going to take the Blues back to where they need to be any time soon.
Mongrel. Passion. Heart.
That’s what Newman brings back to this club. How many others can provide the same?
The remainder of this article, and the next 15 questions are for our members. They support me, and I provide for them. It’s a good deal.
Oh… a Mongrel paywall… the worst of all paywalls. We’re on the march to the 2026 AFL season and it all begins here. The Mongrel’s Big Questions Season Previews are THE best in the business. If you know, you know… if not, maybe it’s time to find out. Pre-Season, Practice Games… we’re all in. Dump the mainstream lip service and dive into articles like this – you will never look back. If you don’t want to, that’s fine. You’re welcome to re-read the first five questions again, but if you do… there is a heap more below.
