After a disappointing 2025, the Sydney Swans are the team everyone is expecting to bounce back.
Even if they had not gone out and picked up the best full forward in the game, there was a genuine feeling that this club was not going to be out of the mix for very long. Whilst the failure of 2024 knocked them back on their heels, the club just could not cover the big losses of Errol Gulden, Logan McDonald, and Callum Mills. It left them looking ordinary, with too much left to too few.
And any team in that situation will suffer, as a result.
To emphasise their plight, I have one example – Joel Hamling was playing as a deep forward at one stage.
I rest my case.
If there is a silver lining to the season that saw the Swans fall away, it was that we finally got the chance to see what a few of the kids could really do. Angus Sheldrick – a long-term favourite of Swans die-hards – got his chance in the guts. Tom Hanily compiled eight games, and Riley Bice, though he faded, started the season on fire.
With Charlie Curnow now making the goal square his own, what can we expect to see from Sydney in 2026?
I have a feeling they’ll be back in September, and once that occurs, anything can happen.
We’re steaming toward a new season, and as we do, it is time to turn our attention away from the past season, and look at the possibilities of the new one.
The players have been on the track for a while now – the Christmas break is over, and as we work through January, the charge into the new season ramps right up.
This is where premierships are won and lost. This is where improvements are made and lists come together. This is where the kids show if they’re serious or not, and young projects become the next group of stars. New faces, new colours, old heads with renewed passion… so much feeds into the making of a contender. And as the days tick down toward the intra-club clashes, practice games, and eventually the real stuff, questions are raised about each team and how they’re going to perform in this new season.
And that’s where HB and The Mongrel come in.
We don’t do things by halves here, at The Mongrel Punt. When we do a season preview, we go all in to make sure it is the best, most comprehensive coverage you’ll receive. We pride ourselves on it. If you want to read one season preview for your team, or any team, this series will provide what you’re after.
The way it works is as follows.
Each club has a minimum of 15 questions asked about the upcoming season, their coaches, their players, and their expectations. The answers are not glossed over. We dive deep on each and every one of them – some singular answers would normally be long enough for an entire column. The first five questions/answers are free for you to consume. The next 10-14 for each club are for our members, including a special appearance from Mrs Mongrel to throw her two cents in the mix.
Isn’t it a bit early for a season preview? Well, I suppose, but do you know how long it takes to write seven-to-nine thousand words? That’s 18 x 8,000… gets out the calculator… that’s 144,000 words. The average novel is about 85,000 words, so buckle the hell up with these previews; HB goes deeper than anyone else covering the game..
Also, if there are any issues that arise after the publication of the preview for any team, they will be covered in standalone articles to act as additions to this preview.
You will not read a more comprehensive season preview than this – I guarantee it. This is where we start the run to the new season, and believe me – nobody does it better than The Mongrel.
The Sydney Swans Season Preview – let’s go!
1 – WHAT IS THE TRICKLE-DOWN EFFECT OF LANDING CHARLIE CURNOW?
I should have thrown this in the members’ section… I can tell it’s going to be a long one. I might have to break it up.
Firstly, I applaud the Swans for being bold. They saw where they were falling down and took steps to remedy it in the most decisive way possible. It’s not the first time they have gone after a star key forward, and they inevitably seem to attract some of the best the competition has to offer – Lockett, Hall, Franklin… and now Charlie Curnow arrives to don the red and white.
But Curnow landing in the Harbour City means more than just plonking him in the goal square and seeing what happens. It redefines the entire forward structure and forces players who were maybe a little too comfortable with their future to start wondering how things are going to play out.
Before moving onto how it impacts the midfield, we should cover the immediate impact of having Curnow inside 50.
He has his own gravitational pull, this bloke, and can drag a team with him. When he is on, Carlton were on. As a matter of fact, over the past three seasons, when Charlie managed to snag four or more goals, the Blues had a 12-1 record. For a while, it actually felt it was Charlie-or-bust for Carlton.
That’s how good he can be, and what he means to a team when he is on-song.
And when he’s not?
It’s also worth exploring, in the interest of fairness.
When Charlie was held to one goal or fewer, the Blues were 4-14.
Ouch.
So, the lesson here is that when he is hot, you ride him (settle down, ladies… and maybe a few blokes) and when he isn’t, you need to have some other options.
And yes, we’ll get to those other options, in detail a little further down.
Next, the impact he has on the midfield will be one to watch. Whilst the likes of Gulden, Warner, Heeney, and Rowbottom will always look for an option, Curnow commands the footy like Amartey or McLean just couldn’t. Gulden has stated that Charlie reminds him of having Buddy in the team – that is the power Curnow possesses. That’s how he carries himself. In any forward line he plays in, he is the number one target. All else revolves around him.
For a midfield on the break, Curnow’s presence will be close to undeniable, but as they stream forward, it will be incumbent on these ball users to make astute decisions. If Charlie is drawing defenders from all over the place, others must be free.
And this is where you sink or swim as a distributor.
Do you make the right decision and feed Charlie only when he has an advantage, or do you fall into the Carlton trap of bombing it long, high, and hoping like hell he can beat two or three opponents? Here’s a hint – nobody regularly beats two or three opponents.
The trickle down for the midfield puts pressure on them. Yes, Curnow looms large and he will demand the footy – that is his role. However, an intelligent ball user will be forced to make some pretty big decisions in the blink of an eye. The Swans cannot be Charlie-or-bust. Not if they want to contend.
If the Swans get the balance right, it leads to a feast where all get a seat at the table, and Charlie will sit at the head of it.
Whether he can recapture the form that saw him pick up back-to-back Coleman Medals remains to be seen.
Is he the same player?
The short answer is no – nobody is the same at 29 as they are at 26, especially with a couple of injuries thrown into the mix. But with the right supports around him, Curnow doesn’t need to be the same player. He is still capable of being the best forward in the game, but he doesn’t HAVE TO be the best forward in the game in order for the Swans to win. They’re a bit better than Carlton.
The Swans averaged just 11.5 goals per game in 2025 – 13th in the league. It was obvious that the forward setup of Joel Amartey (13 goals) and Hayden McLean (25) was not going to push them back into contention, even with Amartey out injured and/or suspended to lower his totals. And with Logan McDonald ruled out for the 2025 season, the three-headed monster that threatened to be something special started looking more like a domesticated animal from the Fallout series.
Now, by adding Curnow, that forward setup takes on a whole new personality. They go from potentially threatening to downright imposing.
That said, can you see a forward line functioning with Curnow, McLean, Amartey, and McDonald in the lineup? I sure as hell cannot. And it is there that we’ll have to start looking at some decisions to be made by the Swans as the season draws closer.
The four talls won’t play in the same forward line all season. It doesn’t make tactical sense. So, who misses out, why do they miss out, and where do they play?
That’s a series of questions for the section about ten spots down the article.
2 – WHERE IS BRAEDEN CAMPBELL AT? AND WHERE CAN HE GET TO?
Where is he at?
Behind where we thought he’d be.
Where can he get to?
At this stage, it really feels like a mystery.
Campbell demonstrates what is possible like a high school tease. Hey everyone… have a look at this!
And then, just as he has your complete and utter attention, you get nothing for weeks on end. Taken at Pick Five in the infamous 2020 AFL Draft (infamous because clubs were largely flying blind due to lack of exposed form), the Swans matched the bid of North Melbourne and picked up their Academy prospect.
I try not to be too harsh on the players from that draft – they were under enough duress, attempting to navigate their way through the draft process without the regular supports due to the lockdown rules being enforced at the time. However, looking at the top ten picks, it has become a bit of a wasteland in terms of top-tier talent.
Riley Thilthorpse is the obvious exception, but Jamarra went at number one, and fell in a hole. Will Phillips (pick three) has been delisted, Logan McDonald just spent a year out of the game, and Denver Graiger-Barras, Elijah Hollands, and Nik Cox have all been either cut, or are non-factors at their clubs, currently.
So really, at least Campbell is out there on the park, right?
But what is he?
A half-back who doesn’t find enough of the footy? His best return was his third season, where he averaged just over 15 touches per game. As we head into his sixth season in the league, he has dropped down to 12.35, and if I were asked to provide a word to describe him, “non-threatening” would be it.
He just doesn’t do enough.
Can he be more than he currently is?
I hope so – organic improvement in Campbell’s age bracket is often the difference between making finals and winning a couple. His kicking, when given any space to work in, has the potential to tear teams apart. His left foot on the run is a laser, carving games open as he looks inboard. However, as it stands, he gets nowhere near the number of opportunities to inflict pain on his opponents, and it makes me wonder whether this is him unable to find the footy, or whether it is a coaching directive that Nick Blakey, Riley Bice, and Matt Roberts are the preferred users coming out of defence.
If that is the case, why is it the case?
Is there something about Campbell’s decision-making I am unaware of?
Does he not excel when the chance is there to hurt the opposition? Do his kicks look lovely, but lack the potency we believe they have?
It doesn’t seem to be the case – he ranked tenth on the team in average score involvements, despite being 21st at the Swans in average disposals, so when he does get it in the front half, he is doing good things with it – he just isn’t getting it anywhere near enough.
Campbell is tied to the Swans until the end of the 2028 season, but suddenly, it feels as though he has made the move from being a player with time on his side, to that of being a player who needs to start producing quickly.
The Swans have been patient. They have continued to find a role for him despite the lack of production (he played all 23 games last season), but with new faces appearing every season, and Campbell now with five years experience in the league, the time for sitting back and waiting for things to happen is fast disappearing.
Pick Five is a massive investment, even if it was in a compromised year.
He’ll be 24 by the time the season kicks off. His time is now.
Or his time may not be ever.
3 – WHAT DO THE LOSSES OF OLLIE FLORENT AND WILL HAYWARD MEAN?
In terms of Florent, I have to say… his loss means very little. Over the past few years, we’d seen him lose his spot on the wing, and move to a role across half-back. Whilst serviceable, he never set the world on fire, and by the end of his tenure at Sydney, he was playing like a scolded dog, with its tail tucked between its legs.
Have you ever seen those wankers at the Academy Awards who sit there and get interviewed? They get asked what they think their chances are of winning, and they always respond the same way – “I’m just happy to be nominated.”
That’s how Ollie Florent wound up in his last year at Sydney. He didn’t seem like he was out there to win, to improve, or to give it his all. He was happy to be playing AFL footy – happy to be nominated.
Happy to pick up 15-20 touches. Happy to take short, safe kicks. And happy to have minimal impact on a team that needed someone to stand up and make a statement.
As for Hayward, he offered a little bit more, although he offered it in fits and starts. If you were after consistent performance, Hayward was likely one of the last few on the team you’d nominate.
Deceptively good overhead, he was a tough matchup across half-forward, but picking up ten touches and a goal was just not good enough for a man of his talents. He reminded me of Stevie Johnson before Geelong sat him down and explained to him how things had to be. I wonder if anyone ever sat Will down and laid down the law?
The Swans had a winning record when Hayward kicked multiple goals in 2025. It’s a shame he was so easily restricted that those multiple goals only came in seven games. The rest of the time, I felt he was a non-entity; too easily subdued and unwilling to work himself into the game with defensive actions.
Another of those exceptionally talented players who never really got to the level he should have, Hayward was the sacrifice necessary for the Swans to obtain what they genuinely needed.
But who fills both his and Florent’s roles?
There are no shortage of players to fill a half-back role at any team. I hate to break it to you, but in the current AFL landscape, average half-back flankers are a dime a dozen. Riley Bice, Matt Roberts, Braeden Campbell, Justin McInerney, Sam Wicks… any of those players are as good, or better, at the role Florent was in during 2025.
In a nutshell, no loss.
As for Hayward, well… this is an interesting one, and I reckon we might see Isaac Heeney push forward a little more to cover the loss. Hayward as a medium-sized marking option was a good one to have, but not irreplaceable by a long shot. If Heeney splits time between half-forward and the guts, I doubt they’re gonna miss him at all. Without sounding like an ass, Hayward was playing about half a game on impact when he was at Sydney. Maybe Heeney only needs half a game in the same role to have as much impact?
Hayward’s redeeming factors was he was still able to average 1.38 goals per game, and the Swans don’t have another of his ‘type’ outside Heeney, given Hayward can take a contested mark.
But if you give me the choice as to whether I want Hayward at half forward for a whole game, or Heeney for half a game, I don’t think it takes a rocket surgeon to decipher which I’d prefer.
There might be moments Hayward would be handy, but the Swans had plenty of them last year, as well… and he wasn’t.
4 – HOW DOES A FIT AND FIRING TOM PAPLEY CHANGE THE MAKE-UP OF THIS TEAM?
Papley is a spark plug for the Swans. There are plenty who can fire their teammates up, but nobody does it like Paps… and nobody on the Sydney team can get under the skin of opponents like him, either.
2025 was a massive letdown for Papley. He was a spectator for most of the season, and the show he was watching wasn’t something he would have enjoyed. As the wans struggled, Papley did, as well.
I had someone point out to me that he averaged around the same number of disposals per game, but that was rather inconsequential. His impact was way down, and that is how you assess his contribution.
Goals were down -0.8 per game on his 2024 numbers, and -1.0 on his best season (2021).
His score involvements dipped from 6.4 per game to 5.5, as well. So, even though he was getting around the same amount of footy, he was not doing as much with it, and we all know why.
His body let him down.
Sure, Toby Greene was joking when he mentioned that Papley looked like he was a bit overweight, and he’d see how he went in the second half of their clash, but there was a bit of truth to it. He was retaliating for Papley’s sledge of Jake Stringer, but the fitness was an issue, and Paps faded into obscurity in the second half.
There is nothing worse than proving Toby Greene right, huh?
Papley remains a vital part of the Sydney forward setup; perhaps even more so with the departure of Will Hayward, but a watered version of the player we’ve come to love (or hate, depending on your allegiance) offers very little the Swans actually need.
Tom Papley at his best is a force of nature, capable of huffing, puffing, and blowing the opposition away.
The 2025 version of Papley was more like one heavy breathing on the phone.
With the wans stacking their forward line, and several others looking like they’re going to push for a run inside 50, as well (Rosas, Dattoli, Hanily) we may be reaching the point where name value is simply not enough to guarantee you a place on a weekly basis. This is particularly prevalent when the defensive aspect of the game falls off (Papley was at just 0.64 tackles inside 50 per game in 2025 – another stat slightly down, and one that always reflects a lack of ‘tank’).
Tom has some work to do. He is turning 30 in July and can no longer rely on his talent to carry him. Now, the hard work and preparation must be spot on for him to make the type of impact we’re used to.
If he can do that and get himself right, he adds to the potency of that Sydney forward half, but if he becomes just another player who flitters in and out of games, I am sorry to say, it may be time for the Swans to start looking for other options.
Pass mark – 18 games and back up to a goal and a half per contest. Anything less, and he is taking up space… and on a contender, there is no room for passengers.
5 – CAN ERROL TAKE BACK THE CROWN?
2024 was the year of Errol Gulden.
After storming to a fourth-place finish in the Brownlow in 2023, Errol went one better in his quest to become the best wingman in the game in 2024. After finishing second to Josh Daicos in ‘23, Errol turned the tables with a spectacular year, claiming his first Robert Flower Wingman of the Year Award, and looking like nothing could stop him.
But syndesmosis has a way of stopping most, and in the 2025 preseason, it targeted the young Sydney star.
It’s hard to out into words what the Swans lost when Gulden was out of the team. I mean, how do you find stats that accurately reflect losing one of the best kicks in the league who was finding the footy at over 27 times per game.
In short, Errol makes those around him better, and without his tireless running and laser-like delivery, players who were getting lace-out delivery were suddenly forced to work that little bit harder to earn a touch. And for some, that little bit extra was the difference between winning the footy and losing the contest.
It is not a coincidence that upon Gulden’s return, the Swans were able to rattle off a 7-3 record. Even as he re-adjusted to his role, it quickly become evident that Sydney without Gulden was like removing Nick Daicos from Collingwood, or Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera from St Kilda. It was tearing away the main engine from a plane. Without him, the Swans struggled to take off.
With Gulden on the shelf and Josh Daicos at half-back, the race to be crowned the best wingman of the year suddenly took a turn, with new faces emerging as the frontrunners. Ollie Dempsey and Jarrod Berry led the pack, but let’s be real here for a minute – if Gulden is healthy, this award was his to lose.
Only, he wasn’t healthy, and even with a very good, but not brilliant, late-season surge, the peloton was already far too far ahead for him to mount a challenge.
But 2026 is something completely new. And if I were a betting man, I would be putting the house on Errol Gulden to take back the title of the best wingman in the game.
Whilst injury remains a threat to every player, Gulden is also balancing time in the middle. Last season, he spent time at centre bounces, but only at 19% of them in the games he played. Toward the end of the 2024 season, Errol was seeing much more onball time, racking up over 60% of centre bounce attendances in some games.
The injury in 2025 would have likely prevented that occurring again, but you have to wonder whether there is a temptation for Dean Cox to follow what John Longmire was doing, and insert Gulden into the mix more often.
Is it a good move, or a bad one? What do you lose in an outside runner to gain someone who does not really thrive in a contested footy situation?
Cox and his coaching panel will have to assess this closely heading into the season. Do you remove Gulden from a role where he became dominant to add him to an already-capable mix?
I am not sure the reward is worth the risk.
I want to see Gulden playing as a wingman because, quite simply, he will dominate the role. There is nobody that can now hold a candle to him. It will be up to the coaches to keep that flame alight.
The remainder of this article, and the next 15 questions are for our members. They support me, and I provide for them. It’s a good deal.
Oh… a Mongrel paywall… the worst of all paywalls. We’re on the march to the 2026 AFL season and it all begins here. The Mongrel’s Big Questions Season Previews are THE best in the business. If you know, you know… if not, maybe it’s time to find out. Pre-Season, Practice Games… we’re all in. Dump the mainstream lip service and dive into articles like this – you will never look back. If you don’t want to, that’s fine. You’re welcome to re-read the first five questions again, but if you do… there is a heap more below.
