As people start to make their annual AFL predictions (and some of them do a wanky Christmas wishlist for each club… wait for it, and remember me when you see it!) it is difficult not to turn your attention to the state of Queensland.
The battle for 2026 might just come down to the two teams that call the Sunshine State home.
The Lions come into 2026 with a battle-tested line up, and have added even more firepower to their ranks.
Returning from injury are Eric Hipwood, Keidean Coleman, Jack Payne, and Lincoln McCarthy. Add those names to players who were already knocking on the door – Tom Doedee, Noah Answerth, Conor McKenna – and the influx of talent, headed by Oscar Allen, Sam Draper, and Daniel Annable, and the Lions have seemingly built on their dual-premiership list.
Sure, they have lost Callum Ah Chee and Oscar McInerney, but the net gain, on paper, is impressive.
Not to be outdone, after their breakthrough finals campaign, and first finals win, the Suns have taken steps to ensure this was no fluke. The acquisition of Christian Petracca is a huge addition to the midfield. His burst speed from contests, and ability to create, give the Suns a potent weapon, whether he spends time in the guts or shifting forward.
They have rolled the dice on Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, in the hopes that the wayward former-Dog has seen the error of his ways, and now understands what it requires to remain a star in the league.
They have also secured the younger brother of Bodhi Uwland (a serious player in his own right), as Zeke joins the team and appears to be ready-made.
Coming back from injury are Charlie Ballard (he was missed terribly), whilst the Suns boast a team filled with hard nuts (Ben Long, Nick Holman, the developing Will Graham).
Make no mistake, the Q-Clash, if that is the ongoing preferred name for the annual Queensland Showdown, has never been more important, and there is a huge chance we see these two teams face off for supremacy in September. Could an All-Queensland Grand Final be on the cards?
I don’t think it is a far-fetched idea.
Let’s jump into the good, old-fashioned, corporate bullshit SWOT Analysis to compare the teams.
STRENGTHS
BRISBANE
Youth – Looking at the Lions’ young talent, it is difficult to knock them. The Ashcroft Brothers, and Jaspa Fletcher have already made their mark, and you can guarantee that those three will be the headline acts for the Lions for the next ten years. The Lions also swooped and grabbed Daniel Annable with a top five selection via their Academy.
Battle-hardened – Three-straight Grand Finals, and two flags indicate that this Lions team know how and when to get their hands dirty. They may not always get the W – no team ever does – but when the chips are down and the Lions need a lift, they know exactly what to do.
Upgrades – Whilst some have questioned me on this, I am a firm believer that Sam Draper – a committed and fit Sam Draper – is an improvement on Oscar McInerney. Not to discredit the Big O, at all – he was huge for the team – but Draper is now in his prime years, and should be able to push forward to hit the scoreboard, as well.
Oscar Allen up forward might be seen to step on the toes of Logan Morris, but could also afford him more opportunity. Allen, if the Lions can get him fit and keep him that way, is a proven commodity, and if he is drawing heat, Logan Morris has demonstrated that he can find the footy and hurt teams.
The old master – Remember when David King said the Lions should get rid of Chris Fagan and bring in Chris Scott… who was already contracted at Geelong? What’s the old saying? Sometimes, it is better to remain quiet and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt?
Fagan has been the architect of the Lions’ revival, and despite the playing group doing the hard yards, he is the heart and soul of the club, now. Players play for him.
GOLD COAST
Forward help – Ben King had a great year in 2025. He did what was asked of him, played the stay-at-home forward role, and snagged 71 goals for the season. Not good enough to be considered an All-Australian, because he was basically too efficient for his own good.
Now, the Suns have a better spread inside 50. Adding Jamarra, who is an excellent overhead mark, to the mix, means that King is not getting double-teamed like Joe Ganino at a high school reunion. With one man to beat, King is afforded greater opportunity, and Jamarra, if his head is on straight, gives him great scope to become an even more potent offensive force.
A better defence – I mentioned the loss of Charlie Ballard earlier, and I want to elaborate. I like what the Suns offer with Sam Collins as the brute in the defensive goal square. In fact, behind Harris Andrews, Collins might be my favourite key defender. He is a no-bullshit operator, but I much prefer Mac Andrew as defender number three…
… and Ballard’s injury forced Mac to be more in 2025. When Collins went down, Mac Andrew was the number one man – that was not ideal. Ballard’s return this season gives Collins the help in the air, and frees up Andrew to use that ridiculous athleticism. The Suns have great ground level support, but Ballard returning gives them the additional pillar to hold things together.
Premiership belief – When Damien Hardwick commenced at the Suns, he stated he had 80% of is premiership list there. He wasn’t lying.
The Suns have topped up and would be buoyed by the coach’s initial prediction. It would feel as though things are headed in the right direction. And if they are able to string wins together early in the season, that belief will only grow.
The Fortress – People First Stadium has become a nightmare to visit. As has TIO Stadium, with the Suns compiling a 19-4 record across the last two seasons at the venues.
That is better than the vaunted Geelong GMHBA record of 13-6.
If the Suns continue to defend home turf, they’re in the finals. It’s that simple.
WEAKNESSES
It’s funny… with a different perspective, some of these could be reworked into positives. But I really need to fill out this section, so… yeah.
BRISBANE
Staying up – A dumb one, I know, but when you look at this Brisbane team, they have been ‘up’ for seven-straight seasons, now. They have won two flags, and now, because they’re not Geelong, the odds say they should experience a tumble.
That’s what the AFL likes, right – equality!
Well, the Lions are looking at thumbing their noses at equalisation. Their youth (as above, but with Wilmot, Coleman, and Lohmann in the mix) means they have the young players to improve.
Small forward fatigue – Charlie Cameron had a Grand Final redemption in 2025, but I cannot be the only one who was genuinely worried his form had fallen off a cliff prior to that, was I?
The Lions have some great avenues to goal, and ai Lohmann is the heir apparent to the great Charlie (and he has been absolutely fantastic!) but I do wonder whether the Lions will be forced to make a tough decision at some stage during the season.
GOLD COAST
Historical inconsistency – Oh, you thought you were past that? Nah… the media is dying to call the Suns a flash in the pan, and you’ll find this is trotted out if the team does not start 2026 like they’ve been fired out of a canon.
Gold Coast need to lay to rest any possibility that they’re a one-and-done team, as soon as possible. After six games, four wins is the desired outcome. That means victories against four of Geelong, West Coast, Richmond, Melbourne, Sydney, and Essendon.
On paper, very do-able. 5-1 is possible, and a 6-0 start is not out of the question.
The midfield mix – Adding Cristian Petracca is a massive positive, but how he impacts the midfield, and the cohesion that Rowell, Anderson, and Miller developed, is something we’ll learn soon enough.
Adding a star is always a double-edged sword. They’re used to being the star, but in a midfield with established MVPs and Brownlow winners, you don’t want to upset the apple cart. Getting the balance spot on right away is imperative to having a well-oiled machine in the guts.
OPPORTUNITIES
BRISBANE
Create history – I believe it was Lachie Neale who stated that he wanted to be able to walk into club functions with past greats of the club, and be able to look them in the eye as equals. The Lions’ superstar is so close to doing that right now. Not that he is not considered an equal, but those Lions of 2001-03 are the benchmark at the club; a legendary team.
Being able to match what they did, and complete a three-peat of their own, makes players like Neale, Harris Andrews, and the key components of the Lions’ flags the equal of one of the greatest teams in history.
The future of the game – If you listen to those who talk about participation numbers, Queensland is a hotbed for Aussie Rules growth. The Lions and Suns know it, and success right now offers them the chance to secure a generation of supporters who were there to witness greateness.
The transition – We have seen the beginning. Lachie Neale will transition to Will Ashcroft. Dayne Zorko will transition to Darcy Wilmot. Charlie Cameron will be succeeded by Kai Lohmann.
The Lions have built the system, and have the parts in place. Remaining successful whilst replacing the older generation will build sustained success.
GOLD COAST
Destroy the dynasty – The chance to ruin their state rivals’ chance at history. And not just “a” chance, but a very good one. These Suns are the little brothers. Like it or not, they are facing the big brothers until they knock them over and send them packing.
They have the tools to do it. Now, it is just a matter of getting it done.
Build the future now – As with the Lions, the Suns know what is possible, here. They have kids popping up everywhere in their Academies. They are now attracting players who want to play for them. Their time is now, and they’re aware of what their rise means – not only to the club, but to those who will make it their home in the next ten years.
The small forward revolution – Ben Ainsworth is out, but really, he never set the world on fire at Gold Coast. In his place, Leo Lombard and Dylan Patterson will emerge, and will either battle it out, or share responsibility for the small forward positions in the Suns’ lineup.
I like Lombard, but injury restricted his rookie season. I like Patterson even more – he is a firecracker, and I am betting that by game three of his career, people are talking about him as an emerging star of the competition. With Ben Long doing the heavy work, these two have an opportunity to shine, right off the bat.
THREATS
BRISBANE
An unheralded loss – I loved what Cal Ah Chee brought to this team. There is a good argument that without him, there is no 2024 premiership – he was THAT good in that finals series.
Players like Ah Chee are the blue collar workers. They get allocated jobs, and they do them well. They have moments where they shine and stand out, but a lot of what they do goes unnoticed unless you really look for it. I reckon he will be missed terribly by teammates he made look better.
The inevitable lull – I touched on how long the Lions have been up. We’re all aware of Isaac Newton – what goes up, must come down. Whilst the Lions don’t look like that’ll happen any time soon, it remains something they must be wary of.
No flicking the switch – The Lions finished third in 2025. They finished fifth in 2024. The second half of their 2024 season was brilliant, but the first… well, they looked like they were cooked, and quite a few people went on record to say as much. Those people are called idiots.
The Lions flicked the switch. They danced on thin ice and it all worked beautifully.
But people don’t dance on thin ice often, and there is a reason for it.
GOLD COAST
The big game edge – In their last encounter, the Lions gave the Suns the business. They notched a resounding 53-point win over the “little brother” to advance to a Prelim on their way to the flag.
It hurt more than the Suns have admitted. It kept the Lions as the yardstick, and the Suns need to dismiss them in the same manner.
The squeeze – It comes for all teams, particularly when they have a plethora of young talent and only limited space in the salary cap. The Suns have topped up with great kids, and are now in a position to pick and choose who they prioritise.
Ben King, Jed Walter, and Bodhi Uwland are all coming out of contract, whilst others will be weighing up their future dependent on how much senior game time they’re seeing. As the Suns continue to introduce fresh talent, the squeeze becomes real, and some will always feel they’re being squeezed out.
CONCLUSION
The Lions are in the box seat, here. They have runs on the board, premierships in the trophy cabinet, and an influx of talent to bolster their list. They sit atop the mountain.
The Suns are climbing at a rapid rate, but reaching the top means they have to deal with the Lions, once and for all.
Can they do it? Can they knock the Lions off the top of the heap?
Whilst many look to Adelaide, Geelong, Collingwood, Freoma and the potentially resurgent Sydney, as the challengers, I have a feeling we may just see the Suns and Lions lock horns in a knock-down, drag-out affair deep into September in 2026.
How good would an All-Queensland Preliminary Final be this coming year?
How good would it be to see these two clash in the big one?
Bring on the biggest year of Q-Clashes in history. In a year where every game will be vital (how close was the finish for finals in 2025), these All-Queensland games are now a must-watch for footy lovers.
As always, massive thanks to those who support this work. You can see the amount of care that goes into it. I love footy, I love writing about it, and I hope you enjoy reading it. Without you, this whole thing falls over. Sincerely… thank you – HB
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