It’s almost time.
We all have our thoughts on what’s going to happen (and the truly intelligent ones know to stay quiet about it) so here are The Mongrel’s predictions for the 2025 AFL decider.
Winner & Margin
Jimmy D: I don’t want to be responsible for cursing my team; however, I need to own my pre-season prediction of Geelong as Premiers (even if the opponent isn’t Carlton). So, I am very nervously backing my Cats by 11 points.
Justin R: Brisbane by 11 points – just to screw with Jimmy D. In all seriousness, I’ve thought the Lions were the best blend of maturity and talent in their prime all year, so tipping them to get the job done.
Timbo H: Brisbane by 16 points. I want to say it’s because I’m tired of Geelong being in it, but Brisbane is entering that territory now too, while simultaneously grabbing experienced free agents for nothing, and getting one of the 10 best kids in the land for peanuts! I’m intrigued by the midfield battle, but I think Brisbane have too many weapons for Mullin, Atkins and O’Connor to keep quiet for 4 quarters. No Tom Stewart and a questionable Jack Henry down back also.
Max: Geelong by 23. The longer this week goes on, the less confident I become in Brisbane’s ability to break through the Cats” defensive fortifications. The Cats’ pressure in the qualifying final was manic, and while Brisbane may have found some workarounds since then, I just think the Geelong system is too strong. Brisbane start attacking chains with a kick-mark style, and the Cats feast on that. If Brisbane are to be any chance, they’re going to need to break out of their comfort zone with their ball movement, and I don’t think they’ll be able to pull it off.
Hodgy: Lions – too much offensive firepower. Jack Henry looked a massive liability against Gunston last week, and with no Tom Stewart to help out I believe the Cats defensive unit breaks midway through the third.
Slugger: Cats. I don’t care by how much. 20+ points would be better so I might enjoy the final few minutes. I honestly feel we are the better team and in better health, but this Lions team has an aura and a drive about them that is genuinely scary. Hoping for a good game.
Trent: I don’t really believe in superstitions, but then again, I don’t not believe in them either. So in the interests of ensuring I well and truly put my kiss of death on the result, I’m selecting the Cats by 26 points. In reality it’s such an interesting match-up with the Cats’ precise and incomparable discipline, against the Lions’ bombastic match-winning capability. Both are experienced, both have won recently enough to crave it again, my tip is probably based on the likelihood Geelong are in better physical shape right at this moment in time – but I do have a nagging thought that this finals series is closely mirroring the 2015 season.
Disco: Both clubs have proven they are no shrinking violets on the Grand Stage making selecting one team to beat the other a nightmare for a neutral supporter.
I’m tipping Geelong to stun the Lions early with the Lions to fight back in the second half and win by 10 points.
Having said, Dayne Zorko will do something stupid at some point which will cost the Lions a goal, if not the game
Sam: Cats by 30, if only because my heart can’t take much closer than that. Think Holmes/Smith/Dempsey relish the wide spaces of the MCG to run the Lions off their feet.
Matt O: I’ve just got this feeling about Brisbane. They always seem to know how to fix their mistakes, and that Qualifying Final loss will still be burning inside them. Sure, it’ll be tough with their tall forwards being as inexperienced as they are, but I still think they’ll find a way to get the job done. Lions by 16.
Matt P: Cats by 80. Their pressure unit and game plan to make Dayne Zorko beat them worked in the QF, it’s repeatable, they know how to win finals more than Brisbane do. Jeremy Cameron is there.
JB Eddy: Cats by 22. I think they just have too much horsepower at the coal face. Brisbane have a great midfield set up, but they rely too much on Zorko to supply the required arseholery, whereas I can see Danger, Holmes and Atkins going for a squirrel grip if needed.
Doc: Geelong by 17 points – been the best side this finals campaign, Scott seemingly looks like he’s got his match ups down pat. I also worry about the selection of Lachie Neale – how many times have we seen players get up from their concerns to tank on the grandest stage?
HB: My heart says the Lions, but my head says the Cats. The Lions looked banged up last week, and even though they got the job done, I reckon it may have taken a toll. I’d love to see them get up, but I think the Cats might be the most balanced of all teams this season, and that’ll be the difference. Cats by 18.
Norm Smith Medal:
Jimmy D: Solely because I like theatre and a feel-good story: Max Holmes. After he missed in 2022, this is vindication for his hard work. Not only will he play in a Grand Final, but he will also win a flag and a Norm Smith medal. Especially given in his three finals against Brisbane, he has been the #1 rated player on the ground until injury/match over.
Sleeper pick is Shaun Mannagh. He has the game to be a difference maker. Having already won best on ground in a VFL Grand Final (albeit in a losing team), he could add an AFL best on ground to his collection.
Justin R: Hugh McCluggage. About 25 possessions and a couple goals would do the trick here. Has had his best season yet in 2025, and this would be the ideal way to cap it off. For a smokey, I like Darcy Wilmot in a Jason Johannisen-esque performance off half back.
Timbo H: Matt Rowell 3 votes. Nah jokes, obviously it will be Viney. Nah still jokes. Given I expect Brisbane to win I’m going slightly left field and going Zac Bailey. His move into the midfield has seen him finish the season strongly and he stands up in finals. Nick Daicos will come second though.
Hodgy: Cam Rayner
Max: Patrick Dangerfield
Slugger: I feel like if we’re going to win, Dangerfield has to play a big role. And if he does, votes will be drawn to him.
Trent: Max Holmes, a fine player who racks up huge possession numbers, carries the ball well and delivers with great skill. The type of player who if he finds some room can really impact the result and therefore one well in contention for this award.
Disco: Logan Morris to kick five second half goals to snatch the Normie from Max Holmes.
Smokeys, Olsin Mullin or Ryan Lester.
Sam: I love the idea of Tom Atkins winning Norm after I confidently declared him unfit to lace a pair of football boots in 2018. Shows what I know. I like Dempsey for this though.
Matt O: Josh Dunkley. He’ll shut down Bailey Smith around the stoppages, and get plenty of ball himself.
Matt P: Jeremy Cameron. I’m doing sillies here. I think the #narrative suggests that the AFL want a winner that suggests not everything is an award for midfielders and he’s as fine a player as anyone in the world.
JB Eddy: Lachie Neale. He may not be 100%, but that might mean Geelong put time into others, letting him get off the chain a bit.
Doc: Max Holmes – All set up for him to make a big name for himself after the heartache of 2022.
HB: If the Cats get up, I’d love to see Gryan Miers finally recognised for the things he does for the Cats. if it’s the Lions, gimme the Big Daddy of the defensive half, Harris Andrews. Teh bloke has been immense this finals series.
First Goal Scorer:
Jimmy D: While the Cats have conceded the first goal in their previous two finals and could do so again. However, I am hoping we buck the trend and run away with it (wishful thinking). So, I’ll choose Tyson Stengle. If the Lions, Kai Lohmann.
Justin R: Tyson Stengle to kick the first with some nice work from the forward pocket.
Timbo H: Alot of weapons on both sides and not just up forward when it comes to goalscoring. I’ll back in Ollie Dempsey for the first.
Max: Jeremy Cameron
Hodgy: Charlie Cameron
Slugger: Cam Rayner. Just for the spice!
Trent: Jeremy Cameron, through a controversial free kick, or potentially another boundary line gaffe.
Disco: Zorko, because it is such a Zorko thing to do.
Sam: Zac Bailey.
Matt O: Shaun Mannagh
Matt P: Ty Gallop. False hope.
JB Eddy: Dempsey. He loves a run forward, and I can see him getting a sneaky one.
Doc: Tyson Stengle
HB: Charlie Cameron. He does seem to get a chance early in games, and I reckon he needs a big one (game, not dick) to get up and about.
Surprise Player:
Jimmy D: Two players, at either end of the ground. Ty Gallop came of age in the Prelim, and I feel like he can contribute again, especially if the Cats don’t recall Rhys Stanley and Gallop and co can stretch the Cats defensive height. The big one, though, 14 years after Tom Hawkins arrived on Grand Final Day, is Shannon Neale. He’s had three kicks for the entire finals series – has scored with all of them – and has been soundly beaten by Harris Andrews in all three encounters between these teams in 2025. It’d be an incredible reward for his fantastic season, for him to get the job done and kick 3+ goals.
Justin R: Darcy Gardiner. Was in great touch in the preliminary final and plays an important role as a versatile tall. I like his form coming in and think he will be a player to watch.
Timbo H: I mean, we’re talking about two pretty experienced teams here but Logan Morris was held to just 1 goal in the qualifying final, but did kick 5 against the Cats in round 16, so is it really a surprise if I say I reckon he will kick a bag? I just think with Stewart out and Henry limping around the joint, one of the young Brisbane talls will get off the chain, and I think it is a bit too early for Gallop despite his performance in the prelims.
Max: Does Oisin Mullin count? Mullified McCluggage in the qualifying final and will, I believe, repeat the dose. McCluggage’s total listlessness in response to being tagged was appalling to witness, and Geelong will smell blood.
Slugger: Brad Close. Criminally underrated by those not following the Cats. Has been a bit wayward with his goal-kicking of late, but if he finds his range, he could easily kick 3.
Hodgy: Jack Bowes- people quickly forget how handy this guy really is….
Trent: Sam Marshall. Has been building for a few weeks now, and another future star from the fertile Qld academies has not taken a backward step in the lead up to the pointy end of the season, and can be a difference maker on a wing with the Lions fast ball movement.
Disco: Bruce Reville after he is subbed on as he nullifies a rampant Dempsey and kicks three goals himself.
Sam: Rhys Stanley. Has had a solid year, perhaps unlucky to have missed last week, should be able to impact around the ground.
Matt O: Levi Ashcroft. I think he has a breakout, Norm Smith vote getting (but not winning) performance.
Matt P: Rhys Stanley. Plugs holes, plays wherever they need him to, will mitigate Brisbane’s the plan Brisbane are inevitably forced in to to get Zorko to kick it long to down the line, might kick a goal.
JB Eddy: Ah Chee. The high pressure applied to his teammates around him will free him up to get the spilled ball.
Doc: Shaun Mannagh – the oldest best young player will have an impact on this game. Knows how to get it done on Grand Final Day too.
HB: I’ve known three people named Levi. One was a guitarist/bassist for Prince, another was Mark Merenda’s stepson, and Ashcroft could be the best of them all. Stop Ollie Dempsey doing damage forward, and the game swings the way of the Lions.
Key Match Up:
Jimmy D: Gryan Miers/Shaun Mannagh v Dayne Zorko. The Cats half-forwards like to press up the ground, and run back toward goal. They are crucial cogs in the Cats ball movement machine. This inevitably either brings Zorko into the play or allows him to just patrol space. If he gets time and space his disposal will carve up the Cats on the way forward. Both teams will want to play their way, so whoever can impact the most defensively (while still contributing offensively) will determine their sides fate.
Justin R: Cats backs v Logan Morris. The Cats defenders are limping into this one with Tom Stewart already ruled out and Jack Henry feeling worse for wear. Connor O’Sullivan and Sam De Koning will still have a role to play here as well, but if young Logan Morris can get off the leash on some sore Cats, he may define this game. On the flip side of that, if the Cats can keep Morris under wraps, it severely limits Brisbane’s avenue to goal.
Timbo H: McCluggage v Mullin. Mullin wore him like a cheap suit in the Qualifying Final and Clug had little help from his team mates in breaking the tag. He then blitzed Sidebottom in the prelim to show he can beat a tag (albeit a looser one). Neale back in eases the pressure somewhat on Clug, and I think Brisbane will take some lessons in from the qualifying final.
Max: 1. McCluggage vs Mullin. For above reasons. Hugh will need to show a truckload more fight and desire than he did three weeks ago if he wants his team to go back to back. Mullin will do as Mullin does.
- Lions key defenders vs Cameron. A dominant performance would be a fitting closer for what’s been an insane year for Jeremy, and naturally the Lions will be trying to prevent that. Lester had had historical success on Cameron before being pantsed in the first quarter three weeks ago, and Gardiner did well on him thereafter, but I suspect this time Cameron may be an unstoppable force.
Hodgy- Mark O’Connor v Cam Rayner: Look…. Up until a few weeks ago I considered Rayner a stand up guy.. jokes aside, the AFL world wants the cat to finally slow the big bold Lion. Hopefully there’s no bail outs for round 2
Slugger: Atkins V Lions Mids. If Atkin can continue to put the unreal amount of pressure on that he has been this season, it will be huge in limiting the damage the Lions can do from stoppage. Take that away, and that is one of their two main weapons. Atkins needs to continue to be that raging bull in the middle and hassle those lions out of the footy and not give them a clean disposal.
Trent: Cameron vs Lester/Gardiner. The star Cat forward doesn’t need to fire for them to win, but if he does they are almost guaranteed to do so. The hard-nosed Lions backmen have had some success in the past and know this will go a long way towards preventing the Cats main avenue to goal.
Disco: Ollie Dempsey to lead the Cats charge early with three goals, however when Bruce Reville is subbed on at halftime he quietens Dempsey and kicks three goals himself to lead the Lions surge.
Sam: Blicavs v Andrews. Do I know this will be the matchup? No. But I’d love to see it. It would, in theory, let Shannon Neale off the leash a bit while nullifying the best defender in the league.
Matt O: O’Connor vs. Rayner II. Bring the popcorn, this will be a matchup you don’t want to miss. And I’m sure there’ll be spot fires going on around them, but after Rayner’s antics a few weeks ago, O’Connor will still be livid, and be hell bent on completely blanketing Rayner.
Matt P: Jeremy Cameron vs. The Vibes. I feel like it’s less important who specifically plays on him and more important what he does with them, whoever it is. He’ll do the right thing.
JB Eddy: Bailey Smith and Dayne Zorko. I doubt they’ll line up on each other much, but Zorko will definitely seek him out to get in his head, and Smith will bite. Maybe literally. There will be more smoke than Snoop Dogg’s dressing room. Probably no punches thrown, but there will 100% be hair-pulling.
Doc: Dunkley v Dangerfield: Everyone will be quick to jump on Mullin and McCluggage (rightfully so). But this is the one that will give the Lions a real chance in the midfield. Particularly if Dangerfield dials in a performance similar to the Preliminary Final. Chris Fagan cannot afford for Dangerfield to run riot while Chris Scott opts to tag the Lions’ best ball users out of the game.
HB: Both mine have been touched up… errr, I mean touched on.
Levi Ashcroft was given a bath by Ollie Dempsey in the Qualifying Final, and will need to adopt a more defensive style to his role on the wing.
Meanwhile, the role of Oisin Mullin on Hugh McCluggage is a must-watch. How do the Lions stop Mullin getting to Clug? Look for someone to lay a particularly hard block/bump on Mullin early on. I would.
Doomsday Scenario:
Jimmy D: Bazlenka doesn’t get interviewed immediately after the game, for fear of more backlash after Snoop Dogg’s set was filled with expletives.
Justin R: Levi Ashcroft wins the Norm Smith, sparking a shitstorm of comments from Lions fans who think my beloved Murphy Reid did not deserve the Rising Star.
Timbo H: A blowout one way or the other, but really it is to be expected – the average winning margin across 8 of the last 10 grand finals is 56 points. The 2 exceptions were 2018 and 2023 which were 5 and 4 points respectively. I just want to be entertained beyond quarter time! The actual doomsday scenario though is for Geelong supporters if drug testers show up to Bailey Smith’s joint on Sunday.
Max: That’s easy. A Geelong win in a canter (for quantifying purposes, a canter is classified as 5 goals or more). How many prelims is it now since 2004? Hurry up and give someone else a go, you selfish pricks.
Hodgy: Lachie Neale’s calf fails him, lions lose a close one
Slugger: Max Holmes or Dangerfield goes down early. Cats lose and Zorko gets Norm.
Trent: Dangerfield holding up the Premiership Cup.
Disco: Nick Daicos receives five Norm Smith votes to finish second even though he is not playing. Eddie kicks up a stink and demands justice for Naicos who he says, “has been robbed again”.
In response, Andrew Dillon mints a special medal for Nick and nominates him for the Nobel Peace Prize – where again, he finishes second.
Sam: Lachie Neale pops an early calf, subbed off, Lions stuck with two ruckmen for the entire game.
Matt O: A boring blowout, and a less than stellar performance from Snoop Dogg, leading to yet more debate about the Grand Final start time, when the overwhelming majority are in favour of 2:30pm.
Matt P: Everyone’s Rapture predictions were a couple of days late and the Cats lose Ollie Dempsey mid-game.
JB Eddy: Just before half time, Danger lands awkwardly. It looks bad, and they sub him out, but by midway through the third, he’s good to go, but can’t return.
Doc: If Snoop Dogg tanks in the Meatloaf category. Shouldn’t happen though. All accounts suggest it’ll be a show for the ages.
HB: A massive shitstorm erupts after the Norm Smith is awarded, as Luke Hodge and Kate McCarthy both have votes that include an obscure player. The fact they are both on gambling company payrolls is definitely not looked into…
