Who, What and Where
With two games left in the season, nine teams will be winding down and starting to plan the Mad Monday celebrations and/or booking recuperative operations. Meanwhile, the remaining nine teams will be fighting the season out tooth and nail to ensure they are participants in the September festivities.
Nine into eight just doesn’t work. As such, late on the Sunday night of 24th August 2025, another team will be hanging up their boots for the year, and questioning, ‘what if’?
Nine into eight raises the following questions:
Who will be the unlucky team to miss out?
What will be the final ladder positions of the combatants still in the hunt?
Where will the matches in the first weekend of September be played (the annual GMHBA argument)?
All very good questions, but they will only be answered fully after the Suns take on the Bombers in Round 24.5 on the Wednesday night after the end of the home and away season.
Form is fleeting, so expect one or two teams to completely fluff their lines over the next fortnight as they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, while other teams will frank their finals credentials with solid wins.
So, let’s study the possibilities and probabilities for the nine teams still in the hunt.
Let the game of musical chairs begin.
- Adelaide Crows: currently 16 wins and 142.4%
Current Position: 1st
Predicted Position: 1st
Games remaining: Collingwood (Adelaide Oval) and North Melbourne (Marvel)
Adelaide will be the Minor Premier even if they get smashed by the Pies this weekend, as there is no chance the limp Kangaroos would beat them in the last round of the year.
With a win in hand and a very healthy percentage, the probability of the Crows not taking finishing on top is remote.
After a long period of time in the wilderness since the Power Stance and the Magical Misery Bus Tour in 2017, the Crows are in prime position to exorcise their demons.
- Geelong Cats: currently 15 and 139.8%
Current Position: 2nd
Possible Positions: 2nd or as low as 6th
Games Remaining: Sydney Swans (SCG) and Richmond (MCG)
Where the Cats finish on the ladder this season is very dependent on whether they can beat the Swans at the SCG next Sunday. As Brisbane found out last weekend, the Swans are the best team outside the contenders, and they cannot be taken lightly, especially on their home deck (remember Nick Davis).
Richmond at the MCG in the final round of the home and away season is also a real danger game, as the Tigers would love to take a major scalp to finish off their season.
Geelong will do what Geelong always does and just do enough to be a major player in September.
- Gold Coast Suns: currently 14 wins and 125.1%
Current Position: 6th
Possible Positions: 2nd to 9th
Games Remaining: GWS (People First) Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) Essendon (People First)
The Suns are an unknown quantity, being this high up the ladder. They have never been in this position before, so no matter what happens from here on in, the Suns will be making club history.
The reality is, the Suns only need to win one more match to ensure they make their debut in September and given they will be playing an Essendon scratch team in Round 24.5, the only real question for the Suns is what their grid position will be in the first weekend of September.
The battle of the newbies at People First Stadium at the ridiculous time of 12.35pm next Saturday (so Essendon get another prime-time match while two of the teams left in the hunt for glory are playing at lunchtime on Saturday – seriously AFL, seriously) will determine the fate of both clubs.
Not to put pressure on the Suns, but this clash with the Giants is probably the most important game in their history to this point.
Port Adelaide is a danger game for the Suns, while the Bombers will be a walk in the park.
- Fremantle Dockers: currently 15 wins and 112.7%
Current position: 4th
Possible Positions: 2nd to 9th
Games Remaining: Brisbane (Optus) and Western Bulldogs (Marvel)
The equation for the Dockers is quite simple, beat the Lions and a finals spot is guaranteed. Beat both the Lions and the Bulldogs and a double chance is guaranteed. Win one, lose one, then the bottom half of the top eight and a cutthroat elimination final awaits. Lose both, then 2025 becomes another wasted season.
For the Dockers, the next two weeks determines the destiny of their club this season.
Will the Dockers crash and burn, or will they be ‘purple hazing’ it to the last Saturday in September?
I really want to see Troy ‘the Rocker on the Roof’ Nababan atop the MCG in the blazing sun rocking on Grand Final Day.
Do it for Troy!
- Collingwood: currently 15 wins and 124.2%
Current Position: 3rd
Possible Positions: 2nd to 8th
Games Remaining: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) and Melbourne (MCG)
How far do the Pies fall before they find a way to win again?
The Armageddon Scenario – Collingwood get blown out the water against the Crows and the Demons, and a perfect storm of other results fall into place, and the Pies miss finals altogether.
On the balance of probabilities, it is highly unlikely the Pies will miss the finals, but they do need to find form and find form fast. Next Saturday night’s game against the ladder leading Crows has the potential to be Collingwood’s salvation or their Waterloo.
It is all on the line for Collingwood at Adelaide Oval next Saturday night as the Pies either find their inner Carringbush and go forth to challenge or they just make up the numbers come September.
- Hawthorn: currently 14 wins and 121.2
Current Position: 7th
Possible Positions: 4th to 9th
Games Remaining: Melbourne (MCG) and Brisbane (Gabba)
It is hard to separate Hawthorn and Brisbane at this point, as they play each in the last round of the season, and the result of that game could see either team finishing as high as fourth or as low as ninth.
On paper, Hawthorn should beat Melbourne this weekend, but it is not a lay down misère. Melbourne played with a renewed sense of purpose last weekend after the departure of Simon Goodwin and, with the shackles being released, the Dees present as a real threat to the Hawks.
With the ninth placed Dogs only a game behind them on the ladder with a far superior percentage, it is quite possible the last game of the season against the Lions becomes an early elimination final for the Hawks.
- Western Bulldogs: currently 13 wins and 135.4%
Current Position: 9th
Possible Positions: 7th to 9th
Games Remaining: West Coast Eagles (Marvel) and Fremantle (Marvel)
By the end of Round 23, the Dogs WILL be somewhere in the lower rungs of the Top 8, and from there, their season gets down to the last game of the year against the Dockers.
Given how some other teams in the hunt play each other over the next two weeks, it is hard to not see the Dogs in September action given their massive percentage, even if the Dockers beat them.
The value of being considered a soft-track bully is it does pay dividends in percentage, which is always worth another win.
The Dogs need to find the ghosts of 2016 past to have any chance of winning the flag this year.
- Brisbane Lions: currently 14.5 wins and 111.3%
Current Position: 5th
Possible Positions: 2nd to 9th
Games Remaining: Fremantle (Optus) and Hawthorn (Gabba)
The last official game of the regular home and away season (I am aware of the Gold Coast match) is the Lions versus the Hawks at the Gabba at 7:20pm on the Sunday night, straight after the Western Bulldogs v Fremantle game. What an afternoon of footy that promises to be.
(I am not discrediting the Gold Coast versus Essendon match, as the result of that match has the potential to turn the whole makeup of the Top 8 upside down.)
Mathematically the Lions can finish second, however, even if they won both of their last two games then the more likely scenario would a third or fourth position finish. On the other hand, if the Lions lose to Fremantle and Hawthorn and other results fall a certain way, then the Lions chances of defending their crown could be over by around 10:00pm on Sunday 24th August 2025.
At their best, the Lions are unstoppable, but like the Pies, they have hit a flat spot at the moment, and they need to conjure up a win or two, one way or another, to remain relevant and in the hunt.
I dare not write them off.
- Greater Western Sydney Giants – currently 8th wins and 114.1
Current Position: 8th
Possible Positions: 5th to 9th
Games Remaining: Gold Coast Suns (People First) and St Kilda (Engie)
Not to put unnecessary pressure on the Giants, but the team that heads to People First Stadium (what does that even mean?) next Sunday must have their heads screwed on properly, and their brains attuned to playing disciplined football, or their season is as good as over.
Win at People First Stadium and a home final is on the cards. Lose, and you may want to join your cross-town buddies, the Swans, at their Mad Monday festivities, regardless of the result against the Saints.
The biggest problem the Giants have is their percentage, as it leaves no room for error.
Disclaimer: the Gold Coast Suns has played one game less than the other teams in the finals, and they will belt up Essendon on the Wednesday night after the last round. Essendon’s season from hell just keeps on giving.
