It’s funny… I’ve read a few comments and heard a few opinions over the last week or so that have indicated that one team or another “deserve” to play finals. It’s a nice sentiment, but really, the teams that finish in the top eight deserve to play finals, and those who finish below that, do not.
Pretty simple, right?
However, we have a situation where nine into eight just doesn’t go, and there is going to be one team left out in the cold. They’ll be stranded in the position nobody wants to finish – ninth.
You know, the place people have joked about Richmond finishing? As an aside, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, and St Kilda have all finished ninth just as often as the Tigers have since the turn of the century.
Aaaanyway, back to the topic at hand – are there teams that “deserve” a place in finals over others, for factors other than points and percentage?
Let’s explore.
WESTERN BULLDOGS – CURRENTLY NINTH
Shook the tag of having beaten no one with a thumping of the Giants in Round 21, and that has set the cat, or the dogs perhaps, amongst the pigeons.
Despite the win over the Giants, their previous month had seen them lose to the Hawks and Crows, whilst beating the living hell out of the Roos and Bombers.
It goes without saying the Dogs are at risk. They are already out of the eight, with games against the Dees, Eagles, and Dockers upcoming to finish the year. Given their habit of beating up poor teams, they should hit Round 23 with a head of steam, and may come into the game against Freo as a do-or-die proposition for both clubs.
One win against the other contenders doesn’t mean they deserve anything, but if they can win their last three, this club will play finals. Slip up just once… it could be lights out.
GWS GIANTS – CURRENTLY EIGHTH
This past weekend would have set off alarm bells. With everything to play for, they were completely mauled by the Dogs – a team that had not really beaten anyone this season to that point.
They didn’t just beat the Giants – they embarrassed them!
The Giants round out their year with games against North, Gold Coast, and St Kilda. Realistically, you pencil in two wins, from them, with the Suns game the dangerous clash, right? The last time they played the Suns (Round 15), they snuck home by seven points. If they get over them again, the impact could be two-fold, securing their place in September, and placing the Suns in real jeopardy.
The Expansion Cup has never been so important – a must watch clash.
HAWTHORN HAWKS – CURRENTLY SEVENTH
Backs are to the wall, right now. Fun and games are out the window, and the Hawks have to knuckle down and eke out two wins in their last three games to snare a finals spot. Their percentage keeps them above GWS, and gives them a shot at catching Freo, should the Dockers drop a game. However, with the Dogs on the charge… they are no sure thing, at all.
The loss of Will Day is huge, and the Hawks have an upcoming finish to the season that includes the last two premiers…
… eek!
They play the Pies on Thursday night, who are in a bit of a slump, themselves, then get the Dees, before playing the Lions at the Gabba.
It’s the last game that worries me. The Hawks have won just once away from Melbourne/Tassie in 2025, and that was back in opening round, when they knocked over the Swans.
They have also dropped games against the Crows and Dockers in the past month, whilst beating up on poor teams. They need to beat at least one of Collingwood or Brisbane, whilst taking care of the Dees, as well.
Right now, I feel they are the most vulnerable team in the eight.
GOLD COAST SUNS – CURRENTLY SIXTH
Is this the year? After so many false starts and broken promises, the Suns might just be ready to reward their loyal fans that have sat and watched them blow up season after season.
Their last month has seen three big wins (Collingwood, Brisbane, and Richmond) soured by a humiliating loss to the Crows. The gap between their best and worst is still pretty significant, but with a run home including Carlton, GWS, Port Adelaide, and Essendon (yes, they have the extra game, remember?) I cannot see the Suns dropping any more than two of those contests.
They deserve to play finals, and they will play finals this season. They absolutely deserve the bright lights of September.
Now… don’t shit the bed and make a liar of me.
FREMANTLE DOCKERS – CURRENTLY FIFTH
Completely shit the bed last season and have seemingly learnt from it. Have won ten of their last eleven, including games against Collingwood and Hawthorn in the past month.
I’ve been bullish on their list since the pre-season, and thought they were one of the teams that had the capacity to catch lightning in a bottle this season (along with Adelaide). They’ve done that… to this point.
Their final three weeks see them up against a Port Adelaide team that have all but thrown the towel in, the Brisbane Lions at home, in the two clubs’ first encounter of the season, and a ripper against the Dogs to finish up.
Do they deserve to play finals?
Hell yes, they do!
They have a supremely balanced team and can play some scintillating footy. The Achilles Heel might be an undersized midfield that struggle when the game is not on their terms. The thing that could be the difference for them is the mutant that is Luke Jackson, who plays footy at ground level like a ruck should not be permitted to.
THE TOP FOUR
I have not included Geelong in the mix, as they have the type of run home that makes it close to impossible for them to miss finals. Facing, Essendon, Sydney, and Richmond, they should win all three. If anything, their run positions them for a shot at the top two. Nice run home, Cats.
The Lions are a game and a half clear of eighth position, and face the Swans, Dockers, and Hawks in the last three weeks. All danger games, but you’d back the reigning premiers to win at least one, if not all of them. They’re playing finals, and will be eyeing home finals, too.
Collingwood have lost three from four, and we’ll probably start hearing some rubbish about training loads, pretty soon. Sydney supporters said the same thing last year. Hmmm. They have the Hawks in a game that could really damage Hawthorn’s finals chances, then get the Crows, before finishing off against the Dees.
Call me crazy, but there is a world where the Pies end the season winning one of their last six games. Their early form gives them the luxury of not needing to win all three, but I cannot see them losing more than one.
And then there are the Crows. They play the Eagles, the Pies, and North on the way home. That’s two guaranteed wins, and one genuine blockbuster to prepare for finals. What a year – they deserve to be where they’re at.
The last time they were in this position was 2017…
So, who deserves it most?
Which team should miss out based on how they’ve played this year?
I’m a Hawks man, but from where I sit, one of Hawthorn, GWS, or the Dogs is going to miss September, and right now, I can not convincingly argue that any of these three “deserve” anything, other than being under the pump.
If they make it to finals, they’ll have earned it. If not… this is going to be a season they look back on and wonder, “what if…”
Who have you got missing out?
As always, massive thanks to those who support this work. You can see the amount of care that goes into it. I love footy, I love writing about it, and I hope you enjoy reading it. Without you, this whole thing falls over. Sincerely… thank you – HB
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