At this time a year, a young man’s thoughts turn to Spring.
Or so I’ve heard. Been a while since I’ve been considered a young man, you see…
The season is all but over for a heap of teams, and as such, eyes turn toward the next year, trade period, and the possibility of picking up a superstar in the draft.
However, there are teams who gambled following the 2024 season, and are now left watching on, hoping that results fall their way and the draft order sees them benefit from the risk they took.
And for others, they’re already cutting their losses.
Below are the teams who have their eyes on the performance of other teams. These are the teams that gambled on the performance of others, and whether or not they regret their decisions.
Here are the teams you’re death-riding for the remainder of the season.
All picks detailed are before any Father/Son, Compensation, or Academy bids/picks are factored in.
RICHMOND ARE DEATHRIDING NORTH MELBOURNE
CURRENT PICK – 2ND
HIGHEST POSSIBLE PICK – 2ND
LOWEST POSSIBLE PICK – 3RD
The Tigers obtained North’s first rounder in 2025 in a trade that saw North receive the 2024 pick that they used to pick up Matt Whitlock.
As it stands, the Tigers are assured either pick two or pick three. They’re making out like bandits, irrespective of how this goes from here.
Richmond sit two points ahead of North on the ladder and the two teams play each other in Round 23. That will determine at least one spot in the draft order, but the Tigers would be smiling from ear-to-ear.
North… not so much.
ESSENDON ARE DEATHRIDING MELBOURNE
CURRENT PICK – 6TH
HIGHEST POSSIBLE PICK – 2ND
LOWEST POSSIBLE PICK – 9TH
A pick swap in 2024 saw the Dees secure Essendon’s pick Nine, and draft Xavier Lindsay with it. Lindsay has played 18 games this season.
The Bombers currently hold picks four (their own) and six in this season’s draft, and with the Dees facing the Pies and Hawks, and Dogs on the way home, a pick in the 5-6 vicinity is probably about where they’ll land.
HAWTHORN ARE DEATHRIDING CARLTON
CURRENT PICK – 7TH
HIGHEST POSSIBLE PICK – 2ND
LOWEST POSSIBLE PICK – 10TH
Well, this has turned out well for the Hawks. As you’ll read below, as part of the deal last year to secure pick three and Jagga Smith, the Blues gave up their future first rounder. The Hawks gave up their future first, as well. The Eagles grabbed Liam Baker.
It gets convoluted, but West Coast also had the choice between the future Hawthorn pick, or the Carlton pick. They chose the Hawthorn pick, thinking the Blues would have a better season than the Blues, and that left the Hawks with the Blues’ pick.
Carlton are a chance at two wins on the run home (Port and Essendon), which’ll likely see their pick land the Hawks around 7-8.
GOLD COAST ARE DEATHRIDING PORT ADELAIDE
CURRENT PICK – 8TH
HIGHEST POSSIBLE PICK – 3RD
LOWEST POSSIBLE PICK – 11TH
The trade for Jack Lukosius saw Port part with their future first. To say it hasn’t been great for them would be… an understatement, to this point. Personally, I’d get this bloke to hit the gym and start demonstrating he is more than Jack Watts 2.0, but… that’s just me.
The Suns have played this well, and even though it says the lowest possible pick is 11th, that would mean Port wins everything from here out, and all those above them lose like crazy. Likewise, the likelihood of securing pick three is incredibly remote. Somewhere from 5-9 is most likely, which is a great compensation for parting with Lukosius.
WEST COAST ARE DEATHRIDING HAWTHORN
CURRENT PICK – 14TH
HIGHEST POSSIBLE PICK – 10TH
LOWEST POSSIBLE PICK – 18TH
Ah shit… should’ve grabbed the Carlton pick, huh?
The Eagles would be hoping the Hawks crash out and drop three of their last four (they face Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne, and Brisbane, so it is quite possible) and that’ll make them feel better about their choice to select the Hawks’ selection.
GOLD COAST ARE DEATHRIDING COLLINGWOOD
CURRENT PICK – 18TH
HIGHEST POSSIBLE PICK – 10TH
LOWEST POSSIBLE PICK – 18TH
The Pies trusted that their first round pick in 2025 would be waaaaaay down the list. They were right. They also had Dan Houston find their way to the club as part of this trade.
Win for the Pies, huh?
Like West Coast with the Hawks, the Suns would be hoping the Pies crash out of finals in straight sets. Mathematically, they could miss the eight… but that’s not gonna happen. The best the Suns could hope for here is that Collingwood drops the first week of finals and does the same in the second.
Do that, and they’ll get a pick around 13-14. Unlikely, based on what we’ve seen thus far. I’d say Pick 16-18 for them.
Will teams learn from the errors of others, or will they risk a heap for the potential gains a draft pick gamble could bring?
I reckon we all know the answer. The AFL loves gambling, and so do the clubs… even if they have got rid of their pokies.
As always, massive thanks to those who support this work. You can see the amount of care that goes into it. I love footy, I love writing about it, and I hope you enjoy reading it. Without you, this whole thing falls over. Sincerely… thank you – HB
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