It’s Three-Quarter-Time in the AFL
Back To The Future
As we start the final quarter of the home and away, we look back at games since Round 11 for all club and how they performed during that period and we also look forward to the permutations that might unfold come season’s end.
In previous editions the teams have been listed in alphabetical order, however for this edition the teams are listed in various categories as to where they are now and where they could end up.
What is a Successful Season?
Making a Grand Final is sweet, while winning a Grand Final is the ultimate eruption of euphoria, However, that logic means the sixteen clubs basically failed each year. At the high end of the ladder, making a Preliminary Final is seemed a level of success, as it is a path leading to a Grand Final.
In 2023 the Magpies won the Premiership, however in the Preliminary Final the year before they were pipped at the post by the Swans – the point being they never viewed the 2022 Prelim Final as a failure. It was part of their pathway to glory.
That loss signified to the Magpies hierarchy want they needed to do to go one step further in 2023. What the Pies did during the pre-season was to recruit to Daniel McStay, Billy Frampton, Oleg Markov and Tom Mitchell, to bolster areas that needed bolstering.
Brisbane has done similar, but over a longer time period, and they were rewarded with the Premiership Cup last season.
At the other end of the scale, some tipped Richmond to go winless for the season, however, they have won four games, which means they have already exceeded expectations for the year,. Does this equate to a successful season? Further, West Coast, Essendon and St Kilda haven’t improved from last year, and they only have six rounds left to get something positive out of the season.
On with the review.
The Front Runners
Collingwood and Brisbane are clearly the two best-positioned teams to launch a serious Finals assault, while holding the chasing pack at a distance.
Both clubs are favoured to make the Grand Final and both clubs are battle-hardened to the pressure of September.
Collingwood – 1st (136.%)
1st Quarter grade (5 wins) A
2nd Quarter grade (4 wins) A+
3rd Quarter grade (5 wins)
Three quarter time grade (14 wins) A+
The sign of a good team is winning even when things are not necessarily going your way.
It is hard to criticise the Pies at any level thus far this season, and while they lost to the Gold Caost last weekend, they are still on track to be Minor Premiers come season’s end.
Having a look at the Pies last six matches, five are played the MCG. While there are some challenges, even the worst case scenario would see finish the season in either first or second position on the ladder.
The only quantifiable measure of success for Collingwood this year is making a Grand Final.
Next 6 matches:
Fremantle (MCG), Richmond (MCG), Brisbane (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), and Melbourne (MCG).
Brisbane Lions – 2nd (115.8%)
1st Quarter grade (5 wins) A-
2nd Quarter grade (3.5 wins) B
3rd Quarter grade (4 wins) B+
Three quarter time grade (12.5 wins) A-
Brisbane is quietly going about their business this season as they strive for back-to-back flags.
Under the glare lights of a Thursday Night Marquee Match (sarcastic) the Lions flexed their muscle against the Blues at the MCG and reminded the footballing world they are again in the hunt for more success in 2025.
The Lions hierarchy would expect their team to at least make a Preliminary Final on their way to back-to-back glory.
Brisbane’s last six games are against teams jockeying for spots on the September starting grid (except the match against Sydney who would love to spoil their party this year). The Lions have a tough draw to finish the season, but they should still finish top four.
Next 6 matches:
Western Bulldogs (GABBA), Gold Coast (People First Stadium), Collingwood (MCG), Sydney (GABBA), Fremantle (Optus) and Hawthorn (GABBA).
The New Kids on the Block – do they have the ‘Right Stuff’?
Yes, a little early 90s pop for you…
Adelaide Crows – 3rd (136.1%)
1st Quarter grade (4 wins) B+
2nd Quarter grade (3 wins) B+
3rd Quarter grade (5 wins) A
Three quarter time grade (12 wins) A
Ever since Ben Keay’s apparent goal was called a point and they subsequently missed the finals in 2023, the Crows have firmly believed they are cursed, and luck would always be against them. That is precisely the way season 2024 played out for them. A season full of bad luck moments. However….
However, in season 2025, the Crows have been Thilthorped into action and it seems the curse, which can be dated back to the Magical Bus Trip in 2017, has been exorcised and they are off and running again.
Adelaide has been the most interesting team to follow this season, as the playing group is gaining more confidence week by week as the weight of previous letdowns has been reduced by the habit of winning.
The Crows are a game clear in third spot and their destiny is in their own hands. At the very least, a successful finish to 2025 for the Crows would be winning a final, or making a Preliminary Final, however if they can maintain their current form, then maybe they can dare to dream.
What could go wrong?
The draw opens for the Crows in the home straight and they should be able to finish in the top four.
Next 6 matches:
Gold Coast (Adelaide Oval), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Hawthorn (Adelaide Oval), West Coast (Optus), Collingwood (Adelaide Oval) and North Melbourne (Marvel).
Gold Coast Suns – 5th (121.8%)
1st Quarter grade (4 wins from 5 games) A+
2nd Quarter grade (4 wins) A
3rd Quarter grade (3 wins) B
Three quarter time grade (11 wins) B+
If anybody had told me four weekends ago the Suns could miss the finals I would have laughed in their face, however, when the Suns dropped three games straight midseason it looked like they were in the same freefall as years past, and then the miracle happened.
In Round 15 the Giants pipped the Suns by seven points, yet in defeat, the Suns played some of their best football since their inception. Ever since the Giants game, the Suns have found their mojo and they have not lost a match since, including knocking off the Pies.
The Rising Sun has finally dawned over Carrara, and Gold Coast WILL play in their first final series ever. Success for the Suns ranges from making the finals, all the way to winning the Premiership, with anything and everything between. This is going to be fun!
Next 6 matches:
Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Brisbane (People First Stadium), Richmond (People First Stadium), Carlton (Marvel), Greater Western Sydney (People First Stadium), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), and, in the rescheduling of the Opening Round game, Essendon (People First Stadium).
The Old Guard
Geelong and the Giants have regularly made the finals over the last few seasons, with the Cats winning it all in 2022, and the Giants making a couple of Preliminary Finals.
For a lot of clubs this year, there is an excitement if they are in contention for some finals action, but the Cats and the Giants are more business-like as they know the heat that follows another year of unfulfilled potential.
Geelong – 4th (127.6%)
1st Quarter grade (4 wins) B+
2nd Quarter grade (3 wins) B-
3rd Quarter grade (4 wins) B
Three quarter time grade (11 wins) B
A solid ‘B’ for a club which has been a solid ‘B’ since their success in 2022.
Staid, stoic Geelong have been gifted the most advantageous draw of all time. The Cats should win at least five games of their remaining six matches and be as high as second on the ladder come the month of September.
The Cat’s draw is dreamy, but soft wins don’t always bode well for finals success. Geelong will win at least five matches running into September, but that is when the real analysis of the Cats begins.
Given the age of the Cats list (I acknowledge they don’t have the oldest list, but their stars are all ageing, and the young kittens are still finding their paws), it is now or never for them to steal a flag with this list.
The six heaven-sent matches:
St Kilda (GMHBA), North Melbourne (Marvel), Port Adelaide (GMHBA), Essendon (GMHBA), Sydney (SCG) and Richmond (GMHBA).
Greater Western Sydney Giants – 7th (109.9%)
1st Quarter grade (4 wins) B+
2nd Quarter grade (2 wins) D
3rd Quarter grade (5 wins) A+
Three quarter time grade (11 wins) B
Since the bye, the Giants have been the form team of the competition, and they have momentum on their side as they challenge the teams above them.
Success for the Giants must be winning a Preliminary Final, especially given their recent history of getting close and just missing out.
While the Giants’ run home is not as soft as the Cats, it is still softish, with three certain wins and three games in which they would start favourite.
Next 6 matches:
Essendon (Marvel), Sydney (Engie), Western Bulldogs (Marvel), North Melbourne (Manuka), Gold Coast (People First Stadium) and St Kilda (Engie).
Hawthorn?????
Hawthorn – 6th (116.8%)
1st Quarter grade (4 wins) B+
2nd Quarter grade (3 wins) C+
3rd Quarter grade (4 wins) B-
Three quarter time grade (11 wins) B
For the last twelve months, the Happy Hawks have been on a steady rise, and it has been exciting and very entertaining (words I thought I would never use to describe Hawthorn), but recent form suggests they may have just plateaued.
Four wins in their last six games is good by any standard, especially as both of those losses were against top-tiered teams, Collingwood and Fremantle, however, they have looked vulnerable in comparison to other teams vying for September action.
I can’t put my finger on it, but the Hawks circa post-bye 2025 are not the same excitement package they have been since the bye round in 2024.
Maybe the happy clapping Hawks are now in the rear-vision mirror as Sam Mitchell and his coaching staff try to find a balance between the anti-social Hawks of the yesteryear and this current incarnation.
Success for the Hawks this season is a Preliminary Final, but they need to beat either Collingwood, Brisbane or the Crows in the run home as well not dropping a game they are expected to win to make the finals.
Another four/five wins for the season will have Sam Mitchell’s band of Merry Men on the cusp of a coveted a top four finish for the year.
Next 6 matches:
Port Adelaide (UTAS), Carlton (MCG), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Collingwood (MCG), Melbourne (MCG) and Brisbane (Gabba).
On the Spectrum – Fremantle and Western Bulldogs
It may seem harsh to lump the Dockers in the same basket as the Doggies, however, both clubs have a self-destruct button whenever they get close to fulfilling their true potential and taking the next big step.
Toss a coin, but one of these two teams could run the gauntlet for the rest of the season and finish with the silverware, while the other could slide into the sunset as their season peters out.
Fremantle – 8th (109.3%)
1st Quarter grade (3 wins) C
2nd Quarter grade (3 wins) C
3rd Quarter grade (5 wins) A
Three quarter time grade (11 wins) B+ (with a bullet)
The term ‘with a bullet’ has multiple meanings when discussing the Dockers, one being the phrase made famous by Ian ‘Molly’ Meldrum as they charge up the ladder, while another could be they shoot themselves in the foot again on the verge of glory.
There is a lot to like about the Dockers. With five solid wins from their last six games, if they continue on this trajectory they have the ability to be the surprise packet of the season.
I am so glad I haven’t seen that Flagmantle sign this year. Enough said about that.
Justin Longmuir and the Purple Haze are on the right path, but they can’t afford any drop in form.
If, and it a big if, but if the Dockers beat the Pies at the MCG this week then the lid will be lifted. Some matches instil true belief, and for the Dockers beating the rebounding Pies at their 17 games-per-year home ground is such a match.
Question: if the Dockers make it to The Dance will the AFL invite Troy Nababan, the Rocker on the Roof, to strut his stuff way up high on the roof of the MCG?
Next 6 matches:
Collingwood (MCG), West Coast (Optus), Carlton (Optus), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Brisbane (Optus) and Western Bulldogs (Marvel).
Western Bulldogs – 9th (129.8%)
1st Quarter grade (3 wins) B+
2nd Quarter grade (3 wins) B
3rd Quarter grade (4 wins) B-
Three quarter time grade (10 wins) B
The Bulldogs are the epitome the term ‘flat track bullies’. They have belted teams below them, however, they have hardly given a whimper when they are matched against other teams battling for the same spots in September.
It must be a nightmare barracking for the Dogs as the potential is there for all to see, but they have a soft underbelly and once again they find themselves in the same position at this time of the season as last year and the year before and so on.
The one thing in the Dogs favour is their percentage, but they still need to win four of their last six games to even be on par with the teams just above them, and that is no easy task. The Dogs have the trickiest draw of all the teams still in the hunt, and they must beat one of the quality teams above them, as well as not dropping their guard in the so-called easy games.
Good luck Sons of the Scray, you’ll need it.
Next 6 matches:
Brisbane (Gabba), Essendon (Marvel), Greater Western Sydney (Engie), Melbourne (MCG), West Coast (Marvel) and Fremantle (Marvel).
Still a Punchers Chance – Sydney Swans and Port Adelaide
I’m including Port Adelaide as still having a slight chance of making the finals, but they are presently taking a standing eight count. I’ve enjoyed seeing the light-hearted side Ken Hinkley, as he is not fearing the reaper anymore as his tenure slowly comes to an end at Alberton.
As the door closes on one coaching career, Dean Cox has had a truly frustrating season in his first season as he slowly stamps his imprimatur on the lads from Moore Park.
Sydney Swans – 10th (94.2%)
1st Quarter grade (2 wins) D-
2nd Quarter grade (2 wins) D-
3rd Quarter grade (4 wins) C+
Three quarter time grade (8 wins) C-
No explanation required, keep winning and there might be a spot in the top eight, but lose one and it is season over, and the preparations for next season can begin.
Maybe Sydney needs a full off-season after four years of participating in September action. Those who need surgeries can get them done. Dean Cox can tinker with his game plan in the remaining rounds and the pressure on the playing group can be relaxed.
Cox and his coaching staff have a decision to make; do they try and emulate the Lions of 2024, or do they look further into the future and get all the pieces ready for 2026?
Next 6 matches:
North Melbourne (SCG), Greater Western Sydney (Engie), Essendon (SCG), Brisbane (Gabba), Geelong (SCG) and West Coast (Optus).
Port Adelaide – 15th (79.1%)
1st Quarter grade (3 wins) B+
2nd Quarter grade (1 win) F
3rd Quarter grade (4 wins) C+
Three quarter time grade (8 wins) C+
Not even the most passionate of Power supporters would believe they could still make the finals this year, and it might be fortuitous they don’t.
A stress-free Power, enjoying the rest of the season as they celebrate Ken Hinkley and Travis Boak (I don’t think he is in Josh Carr’s team) will topple a few teams, and like Sydney, a much-needed extended post-season allows for a better version of the boys’ form Alberton to lineup in 2026.
Next 6 matches (a very tough draw):
Hawthorn (UTAS), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Geelong (GMHBA), Fremantle (Adelaide Oval), Carlton (Marvel) and Gold Coast (Adelaide Oval).
Still ‘Max’ Dangerous – Melbourne
Melbourne – 12th (89.7%)
1st Quarter grade (1 win) D
2nd Quarter grade (4 wins) A
3rd Quarter grade (1 win) E
Three quarter time grade (6 wins) D
Max Gawn may one day become the greatest player to ever play for the Dees, or at the very least, the greatest Demon in the AFL era.
It is hard not to admire Max this year, as he has been the one shining beacon in a year that has seen the wheels slowly fall off the 2021 Premiers. Decline after a few years of success is a natural occurrence, though at times this season, Melbourne has reminded the footballing world they can still turn it on, but not consistently.
Melbourne has three very winnable games as their year slowly winds down, and they are capable of causing an upset or two against teams in the hunt.
BEIGE
St Kilda and Essendon
Essendon has been the most predictable team over the course of the last decade as they have resided comfortably in AFL purgatory ( 12th to 16th).
St Kilda are much like the Bombers, but they have basically lived in AFL purgatory since 1896, with the odd blimp every 20 years or so when they tease their loyal supporters with a ‘hope’ of success. Hope and success are two words that should never appear in the same sentence as St Kilda.
One word to describe both Essendon and St Kilda is ‘beige’.
Essendon – 14th (76.5%)
1st Quarter grade (3 wins from 5 games) B-
2nd Quarter grade (3 wins) B
3rd Quarter grade (0 wins) F
Three quarter time grade (6 wins) D
Cry me a river, Bomber fans, if you think your club can hide behind injuries as an excuse for your inept performances since Round 12.
Zero wins, zero friggin’ wins – you have to be kidding.
Essendon’s recruiting over a long period of time has been deplorable, and they now have the most plain, boring playing list in the AFL, with Nate Caddy being the only player on the list with the potential to one day being considered a true A-grade player in the AFL.
Maybe the Bombers beat the other beige team St Kilda in the run home and possibly they get over Carlton in Round 24 to decide which club has been the biggest flop this year.
St Kilda – 15th (86.2%)
1st Quarter grade (3 wins) C
2nd Quarter grade (1 win) F
3rd Quarter grade (1 win) F
Three quarter time grade (5 wins) E
It is possible that both the Roos and the Tigers could finish higher on the ladder at the end of the season than St Kilda, and that isn’t saying much.
My dead Nana would has more heart and vigour this season than the Aints.
Rowan Marshall and Callum Wilkie aside, the overall effort of the Aints this year is bordering on comical as they strive for oblivion in a sea of beige mediocrity.
Does winning or losing even count anymore this season?
For the last twelve weeks the Saints have been the worst performing team in the competition with two wins (no, I haven’t forgotten about the WAFL team West Coast, but they had no expectations on them this season) – unbelievable.
This leads nicely into the next team under the microscope – the Baggers.
What Becomes of the Broken Hearted?
The Carlton Football Club
Carlton – 12th (93.7%)
1st Quarter grade (2 wins) C-
2nd Quarter grade (2 wins) D
3rd Quarter grade (2 wins) F
Three quarter time grade (6 wins) E+
I drove down the Lygon Street strip the other night and it was so depressing seeing a mass of broken hearts rotting in the gutter. It is far cry from the night in 1995 when Kouta and his men ruled the world and Lygon Street was alive, with the faithful unaware that this was the beginning of the end.
It became blatantly obvious at the beginning of this season when Patrick Cripps was doing back up ruck duties, that the Blues were in for a long season. Name one other club that would allow their Rolls Royce to go in a smash-up derby.
Cripps in the ruck, what could go wrong?
Anyway, it is back to the drawing board for the Blues, as another era of hope ends in shattered dreams.
They may win a game or two in the run home, but the horse has already bolted.
Hope is on the Horizon
North Melbourne and Richmond
I have been harsh on the boys from Arden Street for a couple years, however, they are finally starting to slowly improve. It is a case of three steps forward and two steps backwards, but they can now sell the hope for season 2026.
Richmond have exceeded all expectations this season as nobody tipped them to win more than a game or two, so like the Roos, there is hope at Punt Road again.
The gradings for North Melbourne and Richmond are based on the preseason expectations and are not comparable to the Beige and the Broken Hearted.
North Melbourne – 16th (78.1%)
1st Quarter grade (1 win) D-
2nd Quarter grade (1.5 wins) D
3rd Quarter grade (2 wins) C
Three quarter time grade (4.5 wins) C
Alastair Clarkson is not trying to sell false hope to faithful, but rather he has invited the followers of the Shinboners to come along for the ride – clever.
At the moment the road is bumpy cobble-stones but that is a vast improvement from the desolate, rugged desert they have come from.
A couple of wins in the remainder of the season will have the Roos heading in the right direction.
Richmond – 17th (64.4%)
1st Quarter grade (2 wins) B+
2nd Quarter grade (1 win) E
3rd Quarter grade (1 win) D-
Three quarter time grade (4.5 wins) D+
Richmond has a few showdown matches coming up against their cellar dwelling rivals, St Kilda, North Melbourne and West Coast and a win against anyone these teams will be a bonus.
Where are the people who said they won’t win a game, now?
We are the Weagles and we’re Flying Nigh
West Coast Eagles – 18th (64.6%)
1st Quarter grade (0 wins) E
2nd Quarter grade (1 win) D
3rd Quarter grade (0 wins) F-
Three quarter time grade (1 wins) F
Andrew McQualter and his coaching staff desperately need a win or two to finish off the season, if for no other reason than to remember what a win feels like again.
The positive for the Eagles is they have stayed in touch in most games, and with an ounce of luck, they could have stolen a win or two, but they didn’t.
Saturdays match against the Tigers at Optus Oval is probably both teams’ best chance to snag a late season win and that will make for compelling viewing.
If you’ve read this far, congratulations and please leave a comment or two.
