…Ouch.
What more can be said? Credit to Port, they bounced back from a loss to show that they haven’t given up on 2025 just yet, but for the Blues… Yikes.
If anything, the final 50-point margin flattered the Blues a little, as Port took the foot off the gas to put themselves into cruise mode in the final term.
To their credit, Carlton did keep pushing. They tackled frequently all night and had a touch of desperation about their play. Maybe a bit too much, as they looked in a state of terror at times as they moved the ball quicker than they needed to, even when taking a set shot for goal.
In contrast, Port looked like they had the game well in hand from the first quarter. They showed a (mostly) controlled aggression as they put Carlton to the test and kept their stars accountable at every stoppage. Some of Carlton’s inaccuracy by foot can be attributed to Port’s pressure on the playmaker, but certainly not all of it. So many times they’d enter a wide open forward 50, only to squander possession by kicking wide, resulting in a point, out on the full or interception.
Perhaps the most telling part of this match is how sorry I feel for Blues fans at the moment, and I go for North.
The Last Five
In the last five contests, Port have won three and Carlton two. Last time they met in round 20 last year, Port were down by 31 points in the second quarter, but turned the match by holding the Blues to just one goal in the second half to record the 11.13 (79) to 9.11 (65) win.
Prior to that, Carlton had a 50-point win in 2023, making some headway in making up for the 95-point loss they had at the hands of the power in their 2021 meeting.
The overall scoreline in the last five meetings has Port on 478, Carlton on 394. Tonight’s result shifts that to 492 to 386 once the 2021 contest drops off, so the balance between the two teams is still moving slightly in Port’s favour.
Ins and Outs
Port welcomed back some high-impact players in Aliir Aliir, returning from a week off with a knee issue, and Travis Boak. Boak’s on-field leadership and stability can’t be underestimated, and while he might have lost half a step as he starts to get within striking distance of the rare 400-club, he’s still a calm, clean user of the ball when it’s in his hands.
Logan Evans and Hugh Jackson also came into the side to get some youth into the squad.
Making way were Jackson Mead, Jeremy Finlayson, Ryan Burton, and Christian Moraes
For Carlton, Weitering had to prove his fitness and took the field, but Corey Durdin, Marc Pittonet, Jaxon Binns and Matthew Carroll were all dropped to make way for a returning Jordan Boyd and Lewis Young, and debutantes Billy Wilson and Flynn Young.
It’s good to see the Blues getting some games into young talent. A comment from the commentary on the night was that this is the oldest side Carlton has fielded in 81 years, despite this, so maybe they’ve realised that there are a lot of players in the latter half of their careers that won’t be part of their next flag tilt, though Hawthorn have shown that stability and smart recruiting can turn things around quickly, while North has proven the opposite.
Recent Form
Both teams are coming off losses that they’d be disappointed about. Carlton were soundly beaten by North at the MCG. While they came home strong, they were manhandled during the middle part of the game. The Blues needed to come with some physicality in this game.
Mission not accomplished.
Port’s loss to Sydney in Adelaide was also an upset, though unlike the Blue’s they can’t claim wayward goal-kicking cost them as dearly as their opponents. Port’s defence just allowed too much leeway for Sydney’s forward line. While Hayward and Heeney did the damage, Amarty had six shots at goal that all went through for minor scores. If he kicks straight, that game would have been a drubbing.
With both sides looking to finals in 2025, they needed the four points to steady the ship for their (and their coach’s) sakes.
Coaches under pressure
“Sack Hinkley” has been a cry from the stands for so long, it’s become a meme, yet he still manages to get his side wins when they need them the most. Voss has had a bit of pressure, but it’s spilled over into Blues fans bayin for his blood in the past week. Hinkley himself has mentioned that he spoke with Voss and told him to ‘just do his job’, keeping in mind that they have a good relationship from his time as Port’s midfield coach.
Most coaches are just a slump away from getting the sack at the best of times, so Hinkley and Voss will understand what was at stake here. A clean, clinical win will silence the critics for a week, a bad loss will have them chirping for a month.
With the result in the books, pressure will mount on Voss, though it should be shared by the entire Carlton power structure. Year after year, it’s the same story where so much is promised, only to leave fans disappointed. Melbourne and Richmond broke out of the cycle by stopping the revolving door of coaches and instead cleaning out the old boys club that had formed in the administration, and ultimately achieved success from it.
Does Carlton need to do the same thing? Is Voss the problem, or just an easy scapegoat for the people who appointed him?
I guess we’ll find out in the next few weeks, because something’s gotta give.
The opening
Port came out like they’d mainlined Red Bull and resentment, steamrolling Carlton in a first quarter that would’ve had Blues fans contemplating where they went wrong to receive such a karmic comeuppance. After a brief feeling-out period where each side worked to control the ball but was stifled by opposition pressure, the game opened up a crack, and Port stormed through with goals to Byrne-Jones and Farrell. Carlton woke up a little, but couldn’t manage more than a couple of failed forward 50 entries before Georgiades kicked a quick pair. Shortly after this, promising Port youngster Josh Sinn went off with an injury to get it assessed, but just as Carlton were thinking their luck might be due to turn, Jones kicked another major, a delightful slot from near the boundary that had just enough legs to cross the line, and the quarter-time scoreboard had Port at 5.4 (34) to Carlton’s 0.3.
Curnow’s two shots were wayward, and it looked like he wasn’t quite right at times. Plenty of players play hurt, but as someone back fresh from injury, it’s concerning that he might already be dealing with some issue.
Unless of course, he is actually 100% healthy, and his kicking style has just gone to piss in his time off. I do think it’s the former, but I feel Blues fans could be in for a bit more pain if it’s the latter.
Second and Third Quarters
To Carlton’s credit, they didn’t completely roll over. After a week where the courage of Carlton stars were questioned, Carlton seemed keen to throw their weight around. Cripps in particular looked to impose himself physically, and early on had a bit of a scuffle with Sam Powell-Pepper. Commentator Davig King questioned the wisdom of “getting into it with the crazy ones,” but King is one of the blokes who put Cripp’s heart into question last week, so I’m not sure what he wants from the bloke.
The second quarter saw them stiffen up defensively and start applying some pressure. Cripps and Cerra lifted, and they started winning more of the pill, but (and I say this not to add pain to the Blues fans reading, but to let them know that I share their collective frustration) the kicking! I’ve seen better accuracy by foot at Subway on work experience day. The Blues had more shanks than a prison yard, and more sprays than the adjacent shower block.
Third quarter? Same script. Carlton got it forward, Port said thanks very much, and casually walked it back out again. At times, it looked like it was barely more than muscle memory for them. Like the businessman who collects his bags from the airport baggage carousel while talking on the phone and sending an email, it can look complicated, but it’s just a professional going through the motions.
Things had gotten a bit spicy as the shellacking continued, with Saad taking a hit that was less of a shirt front and more of a prime example of what happens when a 70kg speedster hits a 100kg KPP. Still, Carlton did try to fly the flag a bit. Likewise, when late in the third, Jones gave TDK a bump as Tom shot for goal, but through the TV screen, the remonstration seemed a bit more obligatory than any actual heat. Well, except for Curnow. He has had a frustrating run of form, so it is a consolation that there were times when he’d have two blokes wrestling with him simultaneously, and he was throwing them around like the old carnie days of pro wrestling.
Maybe a post-footy career is revealing itself?
Final Quarter
With the game still in reach, Carlton needed a big final term. The scoreline worm will tell us that this was their best quarter as they almost doubled their score from 33 to 60 and pulled the margin back from 56 to 50, but let’s be real here — Port took their foot off the gas.
There were plays through the middle where Port were swamped with Blues defenders, only for a series of handballs that included no-look passes, pirouettes and even some tunnelball to make it look like the Harlem Globetrotters had changed sports. Sometimes the Blues managed an interception and brought the ball forward, but far, far too often they’d just waste their scoring opportunities.
I hate to be so unceasingly negative, so I’ll at least point out that McGovern was someone who wanted to take the shots and pull the team onto his back.
It’s just unfortunate that when they needed him to pull out something special, he’d pass into congestion, and when they had a free forward in space, he tried to kick freak snaps from the boundary. Review footage will be a bit painful, but he’s not alone there.
Midfield matchup
It was a midfield arm wrestle early, but Port had more polish where it mattered. Jason Horne-Francis looked like he’d been bottled in a lab for explosive centre-bounce impact, and Zak Butters — despite a quiet first half — found his groove late. Carlton’s engine room, led by Cripps and Cerra, cracked in, but lacked that next gear to slice Port apart. Too much grunt, not enough glide.
Miles Bergman has made headlines as his contract comes up, and non-SA media realise that he’s not Jason Horne-Francis. He’s done Port’s accountants no favours by racking up 25 touches (10 contested), five clearances and two goals. While the number of disposals may not seem excessive, just about every one of them was a textbook example of clean disposal under pressure.
While the Saints are linked with about 75 players coming out of contract this year, Bergman and TDK are two that have generated more than a few headlines, and Ross Lyon would have been looking at this match eagerly, and perhaps advised his list managers to shift their focus…
Rozee, Butters and Powell-Pepper all had games they will be proud of, with Butters’ forward 50 delivery especially potent. The Carlton defence worked hard, but when Zak is giving Georgiades lace-out delivery, it was always going to be a hard task, made even more difficult with Lachie Jones, Darcy Byrne-Jones and Willie Rioli just waiting for the ball to hit the deck. Lachie was almost as hungry for a crumb as he was to put some hurt on the nearest Carlton opponent. His hard work paid off.
Highlight player
Connor Rozee, take a bow. He wasn’t just the best player on the ground — he was the bloke with the keys to the stadium. Slippery, smart, and every time Carlton looked like mounting something, Rozee was there to remind them, gently but firmly, that they were in Port’s house.
30 touches, 11 marks, eight score involvements, five intercepts and a stonking 90% disposal efficiency. Royal Adelaide Hospital missed out on a top-level surgeon with that sort of accuracy when Rozee chose a footy over a scalpel.
Ruck Battle
Earlier in the year, I wrote about Jordan Sweet as one to watch when he took on Nankervis in a heads-up, one-on-one matchup. It was a highlight of the game, as Sweet matched strength with his older, more experienced and bigger opponent.
In this match-up, he had to adapt to compete with a much more mobile Tom De Koning. The mobility of TDK might have concerned Hinkley, so in a wise piece of strategic thinking, he gave Sweet some help with young ruckman Dante Visentini resting forward and taking on ruck duties often enough to let Sweet catch his breath.
TDK didn’t have the same level of support, with Cripps and Young taking only the occasional tap when TDK was resting.
For the ruck contests, Sweet dominated. 31 hitouts from 56 ruck contests vs TDK’s 21 from 66 shows just how good he was as being the bully big man.
However, TDK was far more useful around the ground, picking up 18 touches to Sweet’s six, as well as six tackles as he scurried to stop Port’s midfield from taking the ball away from congestion.
Who won this encounter? Well, it kind of depends on how you define the ruck role. As a big man controlling the tap, Sweet has it hands-down. He out-bodied TDK regularly and gave himself a bit of menace that you like to see from the big guys.
But if you view the modern ruckman as another midfielder, then TDK’s work away from the stoppage is far more valuable than Sweet’s. He got the ball in space and was a reasonably reliable user of the ball, while also working hard to keep Port’s star-studded midfield honest.
In my opinion, Sweet takes the chocolates here. Yes, TDK had more impact around the ground, but in a squad with Cripps and Cerra, they should be he primary playmaking targets, not the surprisingly mobile beanpole.
Another factor is the unofficial role of the big man on the team to look after the young lads. With two debutantes, Carlton needed to give them some protection. Sure, Young only came on for half the game, but AFL gives no grace to youth and inexperience, and Port quickly put physical pressure on Young and Wilson. Cripps, Curnow and Docherty were there to help out, but that shouldn’t be their role. Sure, Cripps might cop some flak for not being the guy running sheepdog over the new lads, but he’s the person they want in space and with the ball in his hand. Wasting time in a scuffle while his tagger catches his breath is a waste of his purpose.
Being the bulldozer has been part of a ruck’s role since the sport began. The old phrase of “Bigger isn’t always better, but it’s always bigger,” was coined with ruckmen in mind. It’s handy to have a mobile, flexible big man who can impact the play, but some days, you just need that sasquatch-type of bloke in the middle to let the opposition players know that taking liberties with the younger lads will be dealt with in a purely carnivorous manner.
You might disagree, you might value mobility more than power, and that’s fine. Speed on the ball is a key modern football tactic, but the sport is (for the moment at least) a contact sport, and there is still a role for the big bastard willing to sit other players on their arse. Sweet may not be the best at it, but he’s got the spirit to turn into an old salty ruckman, and I like his attitude.
Debutantes
20-year-old Billy Wilson played his first AFL game, having been picked up in the second round of the 2023 draft. It’s taken him a while to get his chance, but it’s reassuring that Carlton is looking to get some AFL games into their younger players.
Wilson did get bullied around the ball a little, with Powell-Pepper in particular welcoming him to AFL level by ignoring his presence near the ball as he shoved him to the side like a runaway Mack truck through a car park of smart cars.
Wilson’s seven touches and two tackles is actually pretty decent for a debut game, though, and he’ll be better for the run out.
Flynn Young had to wait a bit longer to hit the ground, being named as the sub. He was activated in the third quarter when Adam Saad was taken off due to concussion protocols, but he managed to get his hands on the ball a few times, picking up five touches as he got his chance at the big time.
While the stats of the debutantes may not look particularly impressive, neither were they terrible. They both looked a little timid at times, but that’s expected when they’re taking the first big step in their footy careers. They’ll both be better off for the hit out, and I hope that they get another few games to adjust to the style of play.
Kicking for goal
The old saying is that bad goal kicking is bad footy. Well, this effort might require a new saying. I’ve seen better accuracy when I’m six beers deep and gone to a toilet at the pub, and copped the dreaded twin streams.
In the last five games, Carlton have kicked 53.61, and won two. While that may not look terrible in itself, the opposition has kicked 64.42 in those matches.
To make it worse, only one team (GWS) is in the top 8. The others are North, West Coast, Essendon and now Port. These should have been percentage boosters for a finals-bound team. Instead, they are likely to be the cause for another round of coach roulette, and the hushed whispers in corridors as they utter the dreaded word… rebuild.
The Stats that Sting
Inside 50s: Port had 55 to Carlton’s 43. The part about this stat that should ring alarm bells is that it was far closer than the scoreline would suggest, pointing to the quality of entry and work rate of the forward line as an issue, rather than winning the ball itself. To make this even more concerning, this is a forward line featuring a dual Coleman medallist, so they should be well aware of how to put a score on the board. Will McKay returning be the support that Curnow needs? We can only hope.
Clearances: Port had 30 to Carlton’s 35, once again showing that Port didn’t get gifted possession, but definitely made the most of the ball when they had it.
Uncontested Possessions: Carlton had 165 touches in space, while Port had a massive 228. This was a key difference as Port were able to deliver forward with time and space, while Carlton too often relied on kicks under pressure or long bombs made out of desperation. This was also shown in the number of bounces, with Port having 12 to Carlton’s 3.
Marks Inside 50: Port took 16. Carlton? 11. The gap in forward connection showed, reinforcing what the real issue is for the Blues.
Tackles Inside 50: Port laid 13. Blues? Just 5. Carlton’s pressure was like wet tissue paper.
I don’t want to rub salt into the wounds of Blues fans, but this part is about stats that sting, and two that sting the most are from across the whole season:
2025 Disposal efficiency rank: Carlton is 2nd last.
2025 Kick efficiency: Carlton is 2nd last.
In both cases, the only team worse off is West Coast, and yet, Carlton are number 1 in contested possessions for this season, so earning the ball isn’t the issue, it’s doing something with it once they have it that is the problem.
Next up:
In the next two weeks, Carlton takes on the top two teams in Collingwood and Brisbane.
I don’t see the team being competitive with either, based on current form.
Unless they find a way to really harness their inner mongrel and drastically improve their kicking accuracy, it’ll get ugly.
Collingwood by 60.
Port have a similar test in Brisbane next week, and then they host the Eagles. As much as Port had it over Carlton in this game, Brisbane are still another level above, and I think Port will struggle to keep up with them for four quarters. They should easily account for the Eagles, however.
Brisbane by 22.
