ROUND FIFTEEN!
The Prophet regained some semblance of knowing what he’s talking about last week, but questions still remain about the veracity of his claims to being an AFL oracle. As the seemingly never-ending bye rounds continue, it’s hard to completely and accurately gauge the true contenders without matches played parity, but we still can determine a prime time snooze fest or a low key potential classic. What does this weekend have in store?
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Fifteen.
The Guarantee
The Dr Jekyll-Mr Hyde Giants return. Much has been discussed about the challenges we’ve seen with the orange tsunami’s force, but this weekend could see the orange drip return. In recent weeks, the Giants have been a force away from home. No matter where they head on the road – the Cattery, up North to the Gabbatoir, etc – they walk away with four points. However, on their home deck, they have struggled. They look like a lesser team.
I have faith that they can recapture their best at home, but I also think the Suns will be up for the fight after a bye and a bit of a falter. I’m erring on the overall trend this year of the orange team losing at home, rather than many season examples of the Suns not turning up in the back half of the season.
I won’t at all be surprised if the Giants win, affirming the Suns status as May Premiers, but I’m going to back in the Suns to win, showing the dark side of the Giants again.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
The Dockers turn into jokers and lose to the baby Bombers. We know the Bombers are young and future proofing with games into their kids, and the Dockers are on a tear, so it should be a foregone conclusion, realistically. However, this is Fremantle we are talking about. They lose these ones.
With the close nature of the top 8 and some chasing sides, the Dockers must win this to solidify their spot in the top 8. It would be a disaster for the Purple Haze to lose against an Essendon side lacking a genuine defensive unit and who got blown away last week.
See how honest we are, here at The Mongrel? I could have easily changed this to make the Prophet look like a genius, but I prefer to keep him grounded – HB
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
North couldn’t, could they? Realistically, I don’t think they can, nor will I pick them. However, if the Blues don’t get an early lead, they are gettable. The Blues haven’t been humming at all this year, it’s more been an inconsistent stutter.
Carlton have the weapons on the field, but they are failing to deliver. If North can bring the pressure, maintain it, and be close at the final change, then they could shock everyone and beat the Blues … which would probably also end Michael Voss’ coaching tenure.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
The Dogs put 30 goals on the Tigers. Yes, I know the Tigers have been competitive, but the Dogs are better than their ladder position suggests. I think that they flex their muscle on Sunday afternoon, build on their already formidable percentage, and absolutely belt the Tigers.
Realistically, the Dogs have great depth across the field, and their ability to transition, score from stoppage, and just beat teams up will overwhelm the Tigers. This screams “massacre” and I think it’ll happen.
Essential Result (Must Win)
Brisbane need to win, against history, and end a hoodoo. The Lions have faltered in recent weeks, and their goal kicking has been woeful. They travel south to Alphabet Stadium in Geelong and take on a red hot Cats side. Not only are they red hot, they are planning a Stadium whiteout, it’s Tyson Stengle’s 100th, the Lions are missing Jack Payne, and it’ll be colder than the Lions are used to … oh, and there’s a bloke named Danger playing game 350.
All the momentum and buildup is against the Lions, and they haven’t won in Geelong since 2003, when Cats coach Chris Scott was playing for the Lions. It’ll be a season shaping win for the Lions if they can come and ruin a monumental night.
On the flip side, it’s a must win for the Cats to ensure that Danger gets a win for his 350th. Not only is he the skipper, but he’s helped shaped this club for a long time. The Cats should be up for the fight and will come home with a wet sail (they’re they’re + 300+ in fourth quarters). It’d also be nice to get some revenge for last year’s Prelim.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
Port Adelaide have been better in recent weeks, so they need to maintain that. You can’t find some form and solid wins, to then drop a game at home against a struggling team. Sure, the Swans get some key soldiers back on the park, but it’s also at home for the Power.
Both seasons are on the line. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Swans win this game, but I’ll back the Power based on recency bias.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
Basically, for all the listed points in the must win. Friday Night Football should be a cracker. 2nd vs 3rd, securing top four position and 2nd spot on the line, milestones, a hoodoo, one team on a tear, the other in a slump, and Prelim memories front of mind … bring it on!
Also, low-key, the Rhys Stanley vs Darcy Fort match up will play a role in determining both teams’ fate.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
I’ve heard a lot about the Flying Vikinig, Alix Tauru, so I’m really interested to see him run around this weekend against the Pies. The kid looks like he’s up for the fight, he reads the play well, and he won’t shirk the contest. Let’s see how he goes against the league leaders.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
The Optus Stadium surface. Two games last weekend, State of Origin Wednesday Night, and now Thursday Night Footy. It could be a mess, given the rain that has happened as well. Bring on the mud pit if it rains. But, we could be on injury and slippage watch given the poor booking of different matches at the venue recently.
The Don (player of the round)
If there’s one area of the ground the Saints do okay, it’s in defence, namely thanks to Cal Wilkie and then their runners in Big Wang and Jack Sinclair. That said, I think that the Pies forwards will get plenty of looks at goal. So, I’m backing Jamie Elliott to have another big night. Five goals, 10+ score involvements, and just being a genuine menace in what should be a big Pies win, solidifying their perch on top of the ladder.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
Archer May had some moments last weekend against the Cats. He attacks the footy and the contest with vigour, and genuinely just looks like he’s having fun and having a crack. I hope he kicks a couple of goals on Thursday Night.
He did. Nice one! – HB
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
I have to lean into the theatre. The Danger to have 15+ disposals, 3+ goals, and take mark of the round with a massive pack mark.
The Winners (currently on 72; last week 5)
Fremantle
Geelong
Carlton
Port Adelaide
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs
These predictions were made with only Thursday Night teams revealed. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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