(1) BULLDOGS ARE CLEARLY 12 GOALS BETTER THAN ST KILDA.
It was back in Round 6 when these two teams least met, and I personally had the displeasure of losing nearly three hours of my life watching the game live, as the Bulldogs sliced through the Saints like a hot knife through butter to win by 71 points. One would’ve thought that the Saints could improve on that effort, especially considering they were coming off a bye after a win. But sadly for Saints fans, it was more of the same as the Doggies dismantled them by 72 points in very similar fashion to their last encounter. So it’s happened not once, but twice, which puts it beyond doubt that the Bulldogs are simply 12 goals better. If only they could be a few goals better against the top teams…
It was great to see Sam Darcy back earlier than expected, and it seems he hasn’t missed a beat. Darcy and Naughton both booted three goals while Kharmis, Sanders and Kennedy all kicked two. Bailey Dale continues to run amok while somehow avoiding being tagged each week with another big 36 possession game while Matt Kennedy continues to prove what a poor judge Michael Voss is with another two goals from his 29 touches. So we have now established that the Bulldogs are not a bottom team. So far they’ve shown they’re not a top team either. Where they belong is anyone’s guess, and we won’t really know any better over the next 3 weeks as they’ll be playing the Tigers, Swans and Kangaroos. They could in fact be 10-6 by Round 17 if all goes well, but whether or not they’d be a true 10-6 team is up for debate.
St Kilda is a club in limbo. This will be another season wasted with a bottom four finish looming large. And if you ask me, in my humble opinion, bringing in a gun ruckman on $1.7m a year will actually make them go further backwards, but that’s a discussion for another day. This game started poorly and ended poorly, and the middle part was pretty average too. I’d hate to see what would happen if Wanganeen-Milera (31 disposals) and Sinclair (30 disposals) decided to move elsewhere. Getting Lyon back in to coach will no doubt prove to be a bust, and the Saints will go into next week’s clash with the league leader as massive underdogs. And rightly so.
(2) THE HAWKS’ SEASON BACK ON TRACK
In the context of this season, the narrow win by the Hawks is massive. This game was your annually titled “8-point game”. (By the way, I’m tired of trying to explain that concept these days.). The stakes were huge as both sides are vying for a Top 4 finish, and the Hawks prevailed in what was the scrappiest of games. A loss would’ve seen them end up a game and a half outside of the Top 4. As it stands right now, they are equal fourth with only percentage keeping them out. This, right here, should explain the 8 point game theory for those who still can’t grasp the idea.
You’re welcome!
Goals were few and far between for both teams. Gunston and McDonald booted two each but it was Jai Newcomb who put the Hawks in front with 4 minutes remaining. Jarman Impey topped the possession count with 28. Hawthorn have eked out a pair of wins after three straight losses to revitalise their season and have them on the verge of returning into that coveted Top 4 position. They’ll have a bye next week and hopefully come out with all guns blazing against North Melbourne in Round 16.
This loss will hurt the Crows after they led for over 100 minutes. They’ll be ruing a second half that only produced 1.7. Ben Keays was their only multiple goal scorer with two. Dawson was busy with 24 touches as was Izak Rankine with 23 and a goal. What could’ve entrenched them in that top group has now left them vulnerable. They can be thankful for the healthy percentage which will be valuable at the end of the home and away season. Just like Hawthorn, Adelaide get the week off to regroup and put the Tigers on notice for a Round 16 clash they’ll probably want to forget.
(3) GIANTS BENEFIT FROM A HOME GROUND DISADVANTAGE
With the Giants being the most bi-polar team in the competition this year, it was worth taking a moment to review their season to see what may have stood out, and lo and behold, I have learnt they are easier to beat at home than they are away. They’ll currently have an 8-6 record, and five of those wins were on the road. They’ve won just three times at home. The Opening Round clash against Collingwood was a big win, but their other two home wins were against the two bottom teams, and we all know how close they came to losing to the Tigers. As of now they’ve won five away games and just three at home. God help us then if they start winning at home.
Should it be about the Giants strong away record, or is the story really about Brisbane’s once home ground stronghold being no more? They’ve lost two of their last three at home as well as the thumping they copped from Collingwood in Round Six. In fact, they’ve suffered four defeats in total, three of which occurred at home and just one loss on the road and a draw if you want to include that. Wow is all I can say. So much for hiding behind the excuse of travelling making wins more difficult. We can talk about that later.
It would be fair to say that Chris Fagan would be apoplectic with Brisbane’s inaccuracy in front of goal. For two weeks straight it would seem losses came directly as a result of poor conversion. In that time Brisbane have scored 21.33 while conceding 27.13. One shining light would’ve been Logan Morris’ bag of five. Zorko kept up his solid form with 26 touches. Neale did not have as big an impact as he would’ve liked but kicked a goal from 25 touches as did McCluggage. Brisbane’s midyear slump seems all too real right now. Since Round Nine, they’ve won just two games and lost three, with a draw, and with a trip coming up to GMHBA, I things may get worse before they get any better.
Jesse Hogan lead the way for the Giants booting six majors, but it would be fair to say that the powers that be at GWS would be more excited by the five-goal haul by Aaron Cadman. The youngster came to the club as the number one pick and has showed signs, but this might just be recognised as his breakout game. The trio of Whitfield, Callaghan and Ash all featured prominently getting over 30 touches each in what will go down as possibly their best win of the year. But all that matters little if they keep losing at home. They host the Suns at home next week and punters might need to put some thought into their form at Engie Stadium this year.
(4) BAILEY SMITH HAS REALLY ADDED SOMETHING AT GEELONG
Geelong certainly have a knack of securing ready made stars to join their team, and while we all knew that Bailey Smith was a tidy little pick-up for the already powerful Cats, I’d say even he might be surprised just how well he has slotted in. His game against the Bombers saw himgo yet another step further with 41 disposals. Whatever the issues were at the Bulldogs, whilst we know the club is bigger than the player, they let a beauty go right there. Jeremy Cameron carved up the young Bomber defence booting seven and consolidating his lead in the Coleman Medal race. Neale ended up with four and Mannagh with three. If the Cats get over the Lions next week, a Top two finish may await them.
The Bombers did field a young side and the writing for a beating of this magnitude was on the wall. Injuries have crueled the Bombers, but it’s hard to deny their list lacks depth and really needs addressing. Setterfield was the top possession getter with 31, while Merrett and Johnson had 29. Wright and Guelfi kicked two goals each on what was a pretty dark day. The Dockers might add to their woes in Perth next week and make it four losses in a row. Essendon were the beneficiary of a soft draw early on. This season is going to get pretty tough from this point on I suspect.
(5) THE KANGAROOS HAVE PLAYED IN SIX CLOSE GAMES OUT OF THE LAST SEVEN
After suffering three huge losses in Rounds Four through Six, many were questioning the Clarkson appointment and suggesting the club had made no forward strides whatsoever. Players on the field did look a little lost at times and fans were getting restless. Since then, there’s been just one loss above nine points to Collingwood, and they’ve had two wins by no greater than ten points as well as a draw. This is a marked improvement, and losing to the Dockers by just six points does speak volumes of how far they’ve come. Who knows? Once they actually start learning how to win, they might find themselves out of that bottom four grouping…
Fremantle seemingly had the game in their keeping when they led by 28 points late in the third term. The response by North Melbourne was five unanswered goals to draw level midway through the final term only to see the Dockers kick the final goal of the match through Luke Jackson in the 27th minute and it got them home. That was Jackson’s 2nd major, but the top scorer was Voss with three. Serong had 36 touches and his partner in crime in Brayshaw had 31. Freo might’ve gotten away with one, but North will trouble some teams in the run home. Next week the Dockers have Essendon who are in a world of bother. Freo could still be a factor in shaping the Top Four.
I’m sure losses like this really hurt. Imagine going to Perth for a two week visit and coming home with eight points. Unfortunately it wasn’t to be, but they finally could be past their worst moving forward. Nick Larkey finished with three goals and was instrumental in getting his team back in the game with two of those coming in the final term. Harry Sheezel topped the possession count with 32 touches. North Melbourne have an interesting encounter against the Blues next week. Carlton are having a few injury concerns and are hardly in world-beating form. The Roos are a definite chance to halt Carlton’s push for an unlikely finals spot.
(6) PORT SEEM TO HAVE EXORCISED THEIR DEMONS
Port Adelaide’s season looked dead and buried just two weeks ago. The win on the road against the Giants was just the tonic, and now it would seem the self-belief is back. This win opens up the door ever so slightly, and Mitch Georgiadis booting seven majors against a defence comprising of May and Lever was a career-best performance that will boost his standing in the game immensely. To go along with his efforts, we had the trio of Rozee, Horne-Francis and Butters doing their thing and wreaking havoc in the middle. Port fans will be out in force next week as they host the Swans in Adelaide and try to square the ledger and find a way to sneak into the eight.
Losing your first five games is never an easy thing to come back from, and prior to the St Kilda loss, it looked like they were really going to push forward into contention, but now they’ve just strung three losses together and the season is slipping away for them as we speak. Pickett was solid (for a half, at least) with three majors while Fritsch and Van Rooyen booted two each. Oliver battled hard in the middle with 26 touches while Gawn had 23 and did his best to keep his team in the contest. Sadly for the Demons, despite winning the inside 50 count by six, they once again missed several opportunities to finish 9.14 against a more polished 14.9 to the Power. It’s now a case of having to win just about all of their remaining games if they want to play finals, and it has to start in Round 16 against the Suns away from home.
(7) THE SECOND HALF BLUES IS STILL A PROBLEM
Watching from the stands, (yes, I actually went to Perth) it was a case of two separate teams before and after half time in an all too familiar scenario in Carlton games. When Alex Cincotta booted Carlton’s tenth goal, it was only 12 minutes into the second quarter, and the Blues looked like going on to a massive victory, but as we’ve seen so often this year, the Blues could only add two more goals for the rest of the match while the Eagles were able to kick six of the last eight goals to lose by 34 points after being as much as 57 points behind. The Blues did have a couple of key injuries that forced them to slow the game down somewhat, although that almost seems like an excuse to cover for another fade-out. McGovern filled the hole up forward admirably kicking 3 as did Lachie Fogarty whose three goals all came in the opening term. George Hewett was very good with a game high 35 touches while Cerra had 30 in another solid effort. The Blues won’t want to take North Melbourne too lightly next week, and they’ll be waiting anxiously on the fate of Harry and Charlie for that game.
West Coast were insipid early, and their coach was very quick to say so when asked at quarter time. From midway through the second term, they were far better, but letting a team kick 10 of the first 11 goals is always going to be problematic. The Eagles need to turn up from the opening bounce, especially against a team like Carlton who always start well then fade. Bailey Williams kicked well for goal finishing with 3, and their mid year pick up in Tom McCarthy had a club record 31 touches on debut to be arguably best on ground for the home side. Harley Reid was also very good with 28 touches. The Eagles have next week off before playing Collingwood in Round 16. That could get ugly.
(8) THE NON VICTORIAN TEAMS SEEM TO BE DOING FINE ON THE ROAD
I touched on this earlier when talking about the Giants win over Brisbane. What I’m going to do for you now is two ladders, one with home wins and the other with away wins for the eight teams outside of Victoria. This should prove very interesting. We can theorise as much as we like, but nothing beats real world data.
Home Games Ladder
%. Pts. Played
Adelaide. 139.2. 28. (8)
Fremantle. 122.0. 20. (7)
Gold Coast. 110.3. 16. (5)
Pt Adelaide. 106.2. 16. (7)
Brisbane. 98.1. 16. (7)
GWS. 111.9. 12. (6)
Sydney. 84.6. 8. (6)
West Coast 71.7. 4. (8)
Away Games Ladder
Brisbane. 123..3. 22. (7)
GWS. 104.9. 20. (8)
Gold Coast. 135.0. 16. (7)
Fremantle. 91.7. 12. (6)
Sydney. 77.1. 12 (7)
Adelaide. 126.9. 8. (6)
Pt Adelaide. 58.5. 8. (6)
West Coast. 57.5. 0. (6)
It would appear that the hardest road trip this season is to Adelaide Oval to play the Crows followed by Optus Stadium against the Dockers. Perhaps with Gold Coast, having played just five games at home so far suggests they may come into the equation a bit more, provided they don’t capitulate in the second half of the year as they’ve done so in past seasons. It also looks like Sydney and Brisbane trips might not be as scary as they have been. What I think is quite glaring is the number of wins by all teams as a collective away from their home state. If you can take out the Eagles who will struggle no matter where they play, you will find that the number of games won by non-Victorian teams on the road is greater than 50%.
So what’s the takeaway from this? Well, I guess we can argue that the disadvantage of travel might not be insurmountable. It could mean that with the evolution of the national competition the current players have become accustomed to this aspect of AFL life and have adapted well enough for it to not compromise their performance. All I aimed to do by putting this little analysis together was to quantify the alleged disadvantage often spoken about, and in my humble opinion it has revealed that perhaps this is a non-issue in real terms. Maybe good teams will win anywhere and vice versa. You’re all welcome to have your say, and I’m guessing that supporters of these eight teams may choose to berate me for even mildly suggesting the so-called disadvantage might not be so, but the numbers don’t lie. The numbers might even suggest the Lions and Giants, and perhaps even the Swans, are actually at a disadvantage on their home deck!!
