ROUND FOURTEEN!
I’ve decided that the bye rounds suck. I want nine games of footy every weekend, please!
Last week, the Prophet was more like The Useless. He went bold and perhaps a little stupid with his predictions. He may blame being unwell on it, or something to do with the position of Jupiter, or having bye-itis … but we all know he’s not as good as he thinks he is. Let’s see what I can do this week.
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Fourteen.
The Guarantee
That no matter what players may say publicly, footy journo’s will say that they know better, their information was correct, and that they are the victims of gaslighting. A standard response from a bunch of narcissists and gaslighters, themselves.
Alternatively, Bailey Smith gets rested by the Cats – we don’t take risks, costing him the Brownlow, but sending a message to AFL House that, despite wanting to encourage Bailey to be a good role model, you never “put Bailey in a corner” because of his humour. Those in AFL House need a sense of humour or personality transplant. Let the players express themselves. (NB: I hope he plays, plays well, and gets votes. I can’t be the only one who wants a full Bazlenka Bazlow speech).
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
Fremantle lose at Optus Stadium, in an away game, against North Melbourne. Yes, you read that correctly. In the second game of North’s temporary relocation to Western Australia, they host the Dockers at the Dockers home ground.
While this might be financially beneficial for the Roos, it doesn’t seem super smart for their development and their pursuit of actually winning games. Selling this game to Perth, to play at ‘home’ against the venue’s resident side just screams bottom energy.
North will lose, and it’ll put a stain on this gratuitous cash grab.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
Marvel specialists, St Kilda. Even with the one man single hope for the Dogs – Sam Darcy – returning to action on Thursday Night, the Saints play this venue well. Will I tip them? No. Do I think they are a legitimate chance of causing a boilover? 50/50.
As an outsider to the teams and the contest, and with the Dogs having just re-signed Bevo and capitulating against Hokball last week, there would be some interesting headlines and fallout should the Dogs lose. They couldn’t, could they?
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
Adelaide rolls into Tassie, beats the Hawks, and solidifies their top-four standing. The Hawks are favourites, knowing the locale and ground better than their opponents. I just wonder if the stirring win from last week, after some quiet weeks, might leave them under par on their sharpness? (it could also kick-start their season)
I’m unashamedly a big fan of how the Crom play the game in 2025 and am interested to see how deep they can go. A win in Tassie would go a long way to setting them up for a solid tilt in September.
Essential Result (Must Win)
Lygon Street is buzzing because the Blues got another win. It was unconvincing. But, they get their second two-week block of playing West Coast and North. The AFL have gift-wrapped the Blues some opportunities to bank some wins. So, naturally, as a neutral, it’d be hilarious if Carlton did the thing – lead at half-time and get run down.
I don’t see it happening, but the Eagles are different at Optus Stadium. This might be closer than you think, and remains a must-win for the Blues, if they are any chance of featuring in September.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
I feel like my Cats fit this bracket. Most expect Geelong to win, and win well, even with their big war chest to chase more star players. However, in recent seasons, these are the games that the Cats can drop. Whether they don’t bring their competitive edge or lairise or anything really, it’s a worrying trend.
The Bombers have a number of talented mid-sized forwards who can pinch-hit through the middle. These are the sort of players that can bob up and cause issues against the Cats … let’s not forget 2the 2024 Prelim and the likes of Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner, and Call Ah Chee dominating.
Do I expect Geelong to win? Yes? Would I be surprised if they shat the bed and lost to a team they should beat? No.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
Thursday night’s coaches battle. I’m interested to see what Ross Lyon throws at the Dogs to curtail their system and their scoring. The Dogs can blow teams away, and do it very quickly. Ross the Boss likes things to be a dour and contested battle. This looms as a fascinating contest both on-field and in the coaches box.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
The orange team have been underwhelming. They are dropping winnable games at home, but then travelling and winning.
They travel North this week against a very good Brisbane side. Brisbane are short-priced favourites, and rightfully so. Can the Giants disrupt the Lions run? Well, on recent output away from home, they could.
Jesse Hogan hasn’t been in the best form recently and needs goals. He is faced with an incredible challenge in Harris Andrews and Co. If the Giants can break even at stoppage, and Hogan steps up, they could make like Jesus of Nazareth and resurrect (their season).
It’s a Big Weekend For …
My predictions. After starting to generate some momentum with some savvy predictions, last week was a disaster. The tipping was atrocious, and some of the other aspects were as bad as West Coast. So, this week, the aim is to do better … something I’m unsure I can muster. I could be skating on thin ice.
The Australian selectors. After they shafted the GOAT – Scott Boland – for the World Test Championship Final, they also dropped King Kohli’s dad, Sam Konstas for a chatterbox that licks to nick off in the opening position. The Aussies may win in spite of this, but we won’t forget the way you let your country down, national selectors.
Kozzy Pickett. After signing arguably the richest contract in AFL history, the pressure is now on Kozzy. You are being paid as if you are the best player in the competition … it’s on you to try and reach that level now. Reward Melbourne’s desperation – sorry, faith in you – by playing well. This could backfire spectacularly on the Demons.
The Don (player of the round)
Port Adelaide didn’t allow the Giants to tear them apart last week. This week, they face the Demons in Adelaide. These games have, often, in recent years, been close. With Ken’s legacy at stake, and the Power playing for pride, you’d expect them to win against a gallant Demons side who were ROBBED on Monday, right in front of all of us. But, moving on …
The Horny One, as BT likes to giggle, Jason Horne-Francis returns this week, to add some spark to their midfield. However, I like Zak Butters for a big game! Let’s go 25+ disposals, 10+ clearances, and 2+ goals for the guy who is highly sought after by Victorian clubs.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
Essendon have debutants nine and ten this weekend as they bring in two of their mid-season draft prospects. I like a non-traditional story to the AFL, so here’s hoping their recruits don’t falter at the home of footy against one of the top sides. Archer May and Lachlan Blakiston are not household names, but I’m keen to see what they can accomplish.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
I like Jezza for 5 goals on Saturday, and Filthy Thilthorpe for 5+ on Friday Night (a horror night on Friday the 13th for Hokball), and the Bont to have 30+ and 3+ goals on Thursday Night.
The Winners (currently on 67; last week 1)
Western Bulldogs
Adelaide
Brisbane Lions
Geelong
Fremantle
Port Adelaide
Carlton
These predictions were made with only Thursday Night teams revealed. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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