ROUND THIRTEEN … THIR TEEEEEEENNNNNNNN!
While we remain in the bye rounds, this weekend’s football will have a big say in shaping the eight. Numerous matches feature top eight sides against each other, while, on the other hand, we also have Spoon Bowl. There’s been a shake up at AFL House this week, but you can trust that the predictions here
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Thirteen.
The Guarantee
Across some of the AFL channels and the media in general, there has been discussion about the Suns record in Geelong; it’s 0-8 for those playing at home. As one of my fellow Cat fan Mongrels pointed out, when the AFL channels start posting these stats, the streaks usually end up broken. That’s good enough for me.
So, I am backing this Suns side, who have 0 players on their list who have won in Geelong, to secure the four points.
This could also be an audition of sorts for Matt Rowell. Most people assume he stays at the Suns, or, should he leave, he goes to the Pies. The fact that he remains unsigned must be a cause of concern for the Suns hierarchy. Will his experience on Saturday, and seeing the Geelong grass up close, help him decide his future? That’s one to watch!
This is an interesting one for me. I had superstitions as a player, and I have them as a fan. This is not one of them. I don’t subscribe to the theory that highlighting a win streak equates to a loss. However, I do think that this will be a competitive match. I’ll tip the Suns because I’m listing them as my guarantee, but I don’t think they will win.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
Carlton lose to Essendon. This is a weird one, in a lot of ways. Essendon have been in better form than the Blues, even if the Blues have a better list and higher expectations. So, the logical prediction would be that a loss to the Blues would be catastrophic for the Bombers. I don’t agree. Despite their injuries, they have been able to field some strong sides.
The Blues have been completely disappointing. Rumblings have come out of the club about Voss’ future as coach, and comments that this week has been their best week of training all year … unless they show improvement, specifically around ball movement, then those comments of training well are purely lip service. And a loss after a week off to plan and work on things would be the death knell for Voss, for TDK staying at the Blues, and for any hope of success in 2025.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
I’m backing in the Eagles to get the job done against North Melbourne in North’s home game in Bunbury. Yep, you read that right. North are so irrelevant that they are selling home games to a second different state. Maybe they can just merge with Bunbury and base themselves there if the Tassie team doesn’t make it?
Seriously, though, the Eagles have been showing great improvement. Their issue, however, remains the inability to run out a full game. North have some similar issues, but having just completed the bye, may have a bit more energy. Regardless, I like what I’m seeing from the Eagles. I’ll back them in.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
The Dogs get hold of the Hawks and win by 10+ goals. Hawthorn have made three changes – albeit two forced – and these changes significantly impact their side. Their form has been questionable; it seems they have been figured out, and now they face a rejuvenated Dogs side, back from a bye, smarting from a close loss at the Cattery. There are danger signs EVERYWHERE for Hokball.
I feel like the stoppage weapons the Dogs have will stretch the Hawks to breaking point, and then their scoring potential and avenues will blow the Hawks off the park.
Essential Result (Must Win)
As much as the above is my bold call, and I think the likely outcome, the game remains a must-win for the Hawks. While they presently remain in the eight, clubs are circling, and they must find a way to stop their freefall and their form being inconsistent.
It’d be one of the better wins for the Hawks under Sam Mitchell and could be a catalyst for a deep September run. It will take everyone playing their role to perfection and limiting the impact of their Dogs opponents to find success. Also of concern for the Hawks is that the Wizard – Nick Watson – is not playing. Why is that a concern? Because him playing well leads to Hawthorn wins this year. He is their barometer.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
This can apply to both the orange tsunami and the pear. They play each other, and it’ll be a battle of the underdelivering teams of 2025. The Giants almost got done by the Tigers last week, and Port narrowly scraped through against the bye.
While Saturday Nights game may not be the best spectacle around, if these two teams want to feature in September then there needs to be a definite lift in intensity and the senior players need to step up.
On a side note, The Tassie Devils are on life support and have their future, present, and much more on the line. Everything is at stake for them.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
Friday Night Footy! I understand why the Crom are the favourites, given it’s their home game, but the Lions should go in as favourites solely on personnel and being the reigning Premier.
This match has all the makings of, to quote WWE legend Sheamus, a banger. Both of these sides are in fantastic form and currently find themselves entrenched in the top four. We know how good Brisbane is and has been for a few years now. The Crows are FINALLY starting to deliver.
Friday Night’s game should tell us a whole lot about the Crows. Are they the real deal and a genuine threat in 2025 or are they still another year away from hanging with the league’s big dogs? Strap in and find out.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
While I don’t expect them to win, I expect the Demons to respond after last week’s capitulation against the Saints. I expect better goal-kicking accuracy and intensity across the field.
The Pies are the benchmark, but teams can score if you shift their defense and use handball to run through them. While these may not necessarily be strengths of Melbourne, they have the midfield to test them. I’m backing the Dees to be within 4 goals at the final siren.
The Max Gawn v Darcy Cameron match up will be must watch.
Also, don’t sleep on the Tigers. They pushed the Giants last week and ran out of legs. They’ve played some fun footy this year and have exceeded many people’s expectations. And the Swans stink at the moment. They have talent, but they just look a little at sea.
I would not be surprised if the Tigers get the job done at the ‘G. They play it well and their relentless pressure and multiple scoring avenues could be a little too much for the flattering Swans.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
The Big Freeze sliders. You’re doing this to honour Neale and part of the legacy of fundraising for MND. Knowing someone with the illness, you see first-hand how debilitating it is and the challenge it presents for those around the person. So, to the sliders, take this seriously. Go all the way with the costume, with the promotion, and patrons, let’s donate to a great cause!
The Don (player of the round)
I’m a critic of Nick Daicos … maybe it’s my disdain for Collingwood and the way the commentators lose their mind over Naicos simply breathing, but I don’t hold him in the same esteem as many others. However, he is a very good big game player. Expect him to dominate on Monday during the annual King’s Birthday clash!
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
While they aren’t first year players, here’s to Nate Caddy and Jed Walter (and other young key forwards) continuing to set our game alight with fan expectation. What these lads offer is different to the plethora of mids and genuinely puts butts on seats.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
I’m breaking my own rule here and not choosing an individual. But I’m backing in upwards of 160 tackles in the Cats v Suns game. There are a few beasts in that game who just love to tackle and do it well. Both teams will be up for the fight and I reckon it’ll be physical.
The Winners (currently on 66; last week 4)
Western Bulldogs
Brisbane Lions
Richmond
Gold Coast
Greater Western Sydney
West Coast
Essendon
Collingwood
These predictions were made with only Thursday Night teams revealed. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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