ROUND TWELVE
We have hit the bye rounds … so, we get less footy to watch for the next few weeks. While that might be doom and gloom for some (I wish we had nine games every week of the year) it also presents a chance for clubs to rest, reset, and launch into the back part of the season. We also, theoretically, should be getting standalone games, giving room for all eyes to be on each game.
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Twelve.
The Guarantee
Even though the Pies have a record of 7-20 v the Hawks since 2007, they are playing better football than the boys from Waverley. My guarantee is a Magpies win. That might seem logical, but this is one of those match ups where ladder position doesn’t matter; the Hawks have the wood over the Pies.
I’m sure Fly is aware of the stats and will be putting it on his leaders to ensure that this trend shifts a little bit on Friday Night. The Hawks will want to spoil the party and stay in touch with the top four, while the Pies will want to maintain their hold on top spot.
Finally, we get a decent Friday Night game!
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
Fremantle regress. After two good wins in a row for the Docker clan, they can’t churn out another one of their lapses. They have a tough roadtrip, heading North-East to take on the Suns, who typically dominate at home. I don’t think the Dockers will win, but they can disrupt their form if they fail to turn up and make it competitive.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
I feel like I’ve gone out on a limb a few times across the first half of the season when it comes to the Swans and, inevitably, they have let me down. But, like any good, stubborn footy supporter, I’m doubling down. The Swans are at home against the Crom. And while the Crom have been in good form, the Swom have not.
The Adelaide forward line should fire more shots with greater potency and probably will. The Swans have the midfield and get looks, but they have been hamstrung by the lack of availability and quality of their key position players.
On the balance of probabilities, the Crows win. So, naturally, I’m tipping Sydney.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
The last time Jeremy Cameron played the Eagles, he kicked nione goals at Cat Park. This weekend, he hits double figures for the first time in his career. That’s the bold call.
The Cats should get a lot of looks going forward and given he’s kicked 13 goals in the last two weeks, there’s no reason why Jezza can’t extend his Coleman Medal lead.
Essential Result (Must Win)
As much as I expect the Swans to be the unexpected winner, this is a bit of a must win for the Crows. They are in the top four, playing good footy, and are set to make a deep run into September. However, if that is the case, they need to win this game.
They are arguably one of the form sides, so there are no excuses for Matthew Nicks’ team. They must go to Sydney hungry and then leave with four points, or possibly find themselves falling from in the four to a game outside the four.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
The Demons are on a run and loom as a threat from outside the top eight, should everything continue to go their way. However, they are also vulnerable. One bad loss, and this run could all fall apart. They won’t want it to be against the irrelevant Saints, who are more interested in blaming other clubs for their shortcomings than actually having a critical look at their own recruiting and player development processes.
The Dees should win this in the red centre, but a loss would be dire.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
Harley Reid against his childhood club. He was a mad Cats fan, and the Cats are keen on bringing him home. I’m more interested in how he and Bazlenka fare. They are probably the two most talked about players at the moment, and, almost, more for behaviour and off-field things than how they are playing.
Bazlenka was under an injury cloud against the Dogs so, I guess, is in doubt to go to Perth? But, we all want him to go to stay in Charlie contention and for he and Harley to cross paths. Will either flip the bird? Who will sell more headbands? Who has the iconic game moment? If they both play, get the popcorn ready.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
The Essendon kids having a crack against the Lions. If I were a Bombers fan, I’d be most excited thus far by the performances of their young crop coming through. When all is said and done Thursday night, I expect it’ll be another example of the new guard setting the tone.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
Essendon. They have been ransacked by injuries and are struggling in certain areas of the ground. These scenarios either break a team, or galvanise them. I don’t expect them to win on Thursday Night, but a competitive showing against the reigning Premier would do wonders for the confidence of the players and coaches. They cannot get blown away. Anything inside 30 points is a good result.
The Don (player of the round)
It’s been a great start of the year for the big forwards. Form has been inconsistent for all of them, yet we’ve seen many big bags. With a young Tigers defense, I expect Toby Greene and Jesse Hogan to separate this game. I’ll err on the side of the hulk (Hogan) and back him in for 6+ goals against the beleaguered Tigers.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
Leading up to the 2024 draft, I read a lot of things about Leo Lombard. So, naturally, as he steps in for his debut this weekend, I’m excited to see what he can do.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
The Wizard is almost the barometer for Hokball in 2025. When he’s on, it is a good sign for the Hawks. I’m backing him in to kick 4 under Friday Night Lights at the home of footy.
The Winners (currently on 62; last week 7)
Brisbane Lions
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Greater Western Sydney
Sydney
Melbourne
Geelong
These predictions were made with only Thursday Night teams revealed. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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