At the midway point of Sir Doug Nicholls Round, we’ve already seen hangers, close finishes, upsets, and scintillating football. There are a few matchups this weekend that are enticing, and we know we are in for something special.
We have completed 10 rounds, and the ladder is taking shape. But don’t let that stop you from tipping underdogs. We are seeing unexpected results every weekend, and I don’t see that stopping any time soon.
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Eleven.
The Guarantee
The Lions don’t drop two in a row. After a disappointing two weeks – a draw to North in Tassie, and a loss to Melbourne in Brisbane – the Lions will be seething. Having banked wins early in the season, they remain second on the ladder. They come up against a Hawks side who pushed the Suns in Darwin, and also find themselves in the top four.
Both sides can score heavily, have stars on every line, and love to entertain. Can the Hawks maintain the rage and win one they probably should on form? They are every chance, but I have faith in the Lions that they won’t drop this one. They are the reigning Premiers for a reason and will know they need to respond. I’ll back them in, evern with it being at the MCG, to turn around their recent results. Just.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
Outside of Bailey Smith being a late out on Thursday Night, there aren’t too many nightmare scenarios this weekend.
One such result would be the Suns losing to the Saints. The Suns have a game in hand and sit third on the ladder. The Saints are 13th and just lost to West Coast. However, we know that the Saints play Marvel better than most, and the Suns, while improving on the road, historically would drop this game.
I expect that the boys from Moorabbin have copped Grumpy Ross all week and will come out ready to play. I’m going all in on an almighty upset, with the Saints beating the Suns, creating the Suns’ nightmare scenario of the wheels falling off through the middle part of the season.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
I’ll confess there’s a part of me that wants to tip North – the feeling of a win can do wonders, and they have pushed the Pies a few times in recent seasons – but I’m going to go with Melbourne for the same reason.
They travelled North and took the four points home from Brisbane. They seem to be finding their footing in the season, and their stars are starting to perform. However, the Swans are in a similar boat. Having accounted for the Blues on the weekend, the Swans are slowly but surely starting to find some form and can begin the slow climb of the ladder.
Had this game been in Sydney, I probably would have tipped them. I probably should anyway, given recent results between these two teams at this venue, but I’m embracing the underdogs a little bit this weekend.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
Collingwood is the best defence in the game at the moment, and the Roos leak, on average, 101 points per game. It doesn’t bode well for North.
The way I see this, one of two things happens:
Scenario One
North defies the odds and keeps it close. They have a better percentage of goals from inside 50’s than the Pies, so they kick 10+ and lose by 2-4 goals. Or …
Scenario Two
The Pies dominate this one. North gets the ball forward, but struggles to score. They kick 6 goals, and the Pies kick 100+ points, meaning that the joy from North fans last week is short-lived.
I tend to this scenario two is the more likely, given how well the Pies are playing at the moment. However, I’m keen to see how things go in the battle between Darcy Cameron and Tristan Xerri.
Essential Result (Must Win)
Saturday’s game at Superhero Stadium presents a must-win scenario for both teams. The Blues need a win to stay relevant this year, and the Giants need a response after they capitulated at home last week against the lacklustre Dockers.
Conditions won’t be a factor, it comes down to which version of each side turns up and how they play. The Giants prefer a handball game and carrying and moving the footy that way, while the Blues kick the ball more. It’ll be fast, it’ll be frenetic, and I’m back in both teams to kick 90+ points in a tight one.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
The most vulnerable are again Fremantle. The Dockers had a fantastic win last weekend on the road. They surprised many given their recent form, but played to the level most expected in the pre-season. The trouble with the Dockers is their consistency. For all the good wins the Dockers have had in 2025, they’ve had some bad losses. They – and coach Justin Longmuir – cannot afford another of those lapses and subsequent bad losses against the Power this weekend.
After being eviscerated on their home deck, the Power lost three soldiers, with the Hornet being the biggest personnel loss. Ken gets these boys to play on emotion almost better than anyone else. He’s going to need to dig deep into his emotional reserves to get something out of them across the Nullabor this weekend. Do I see it happening? No, I don’t. They are humstrung by injury and just not the side they have been.
Freo have a chance to really kickstart their season with back-to-back wins, so they need to maximise this opportunity.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
What else but Thursday Night Football at the Cattery for the Bazlenka/Cotton On Cup.
I do my best to remain impartial in everything I write, with maybe a little bit of bias or agenda in it – I’m human. I preface this because the next few paragraphs will be fully leaning into my Cats bias. I apologise to Dogs fans, and I apologise to Cats fans because this could be an almighty Kiss of Death, but I need to lean into the movie that is about to unfold. I haven’t been this invested or excited for a home and away match in a LONG time.
My guarantee from this must-watch game is that the Friday Morning headlines will be:
BAZLOW SINKS DOGS – SMITH KICKS MATCHWINNER ON HIS WAY TO CHARLIE
There is so much hype around this match. From the form of the Dogs, to the Cats finding their footing in season 2025, to the banter from Bazlenka and his subsequent form this year, and the follow-up from Dogs players and Bevo. This is, as the kids today would say, CINEMA. And I am here for it.
The Dogs have won in their last two adventures to Cat Park, and I’ve dubbed them Premiership favourites as well. I stand by that. However, emotion can get the better of you. I imagine Bevo will get them going and will try to divert their focus simply from Bailey Smith, but that may be difficult once the white-line-fever kicks in. The Dogs also, are only 1 from 4 against top 8 sides. Geelong are 3 and 2. The Cats have kept Bazlenka away from the media this week, which is probably a good thing, forcing the Dogs to answer questions about the rivalry, if you can even call it that.
Everything in me says to tip the Dogs – better form, better depth around the form, and my simple preference to tip against Geelong after they lose … it’s a superstition. But, I can’t guarantee the above headline and not tip them. That would be disingenuous.
In all honesty, if the game is close, I think Geelong win. Not just because of Baz, but because of the story that hasn’t got as much air time, which is stalwart Mitch Duncan playing game 300. One of the great clubmen and underrated stars of the comp, Duncan has been a regular for the Cats since his debut in 2010. If it’s close, the Cats will call on their respect for Duncan to get the job done. Likewise, the Dogs will want to continue the roll they are on, and to win for Taylor Duryea playing his 100th game for the club.
However, if it is a blowout, then it’s the Dogs who win. They will stretch the Cats around the contest, and the way they use their handball game from the inside to the outside will suit the narrow spaces of GMHBA (Alphabet) Stadium and could cause Geelong some issues.
If I were a betting man, I’d go for the following match-ups to watch for:
Oisin Mullin v Ed Richards
Shaun Mannagh v Bailey Dale
Mark Blicavs v Marcus Bontempelli
Tom Atkins v Tom Liberatore
Bailey Smith v James Harmes
With no Danger, the Cats need their stars to step up – Jeremy Cameron, Tom Stewart, Max Holmes, and Bailey Smith. One of two things happens with peek heel HBK (Smith): 10 touches and no influence, or 30+ disposals, 4 goals, and 3 votes. My Cats bias says it would be perfect for him to get the second lot with either him or Mitch Duncan with a goal after the siren to seal it. If it is Baz, I expect the ‘ice in my veins’ celebration to return.
That means it’ll probably be the Dogs by 30+ points. Either way, get your popcorn ready. There are stories everywhere and I reckon we’ll be talking about this one for a while.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
Harley Reid played one of his better games last week. The Eagles played with daring and on the emotion of the tragic loss of Adam Selwood. The challenge for Andrew McQualter is to channel that every week. One of the key components is Harley Reid. He plays on the edge and seems to flourish when he’s there. The Crows enjoy the contest and the emotion, and the hard edge. If Reid gets going and gets in their faces, it could cause some drama for the Crows.
Do I expect the Eagles to win? No, I don’t. But I think they can push the Crows and force the Crows to dig deep into their mental strength to win one they should dominate.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
The Bombers. They were dismantled by the Dogs, barely fired a shot, and couldn’t find ways to score. The Tigers are a very different prospect for the Bombers, but one they shouldn’t take lightly. Dreamtime at the ‘G is always a spectacle, and this has all the makings of a classic … maybe not the highest-skilled game, but one with moments and drama from two young teams.
I don’t know why, but I’ll tip Essendon. I have no confidence and, as much as it pains me, I’m enjoying what Richmond are doing. They might not win many more games this year, but they are competitive, fun to watch, and seem to be really enjoying their footy. Here’s to a classic this weekend.
The Don (player of the round)
It’d be easy to have B. Lenka 3 votes here, given what I wrote above. But given some of the frailties in the Power side, I’m backing in both Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw to dominate the Power midfield and set up the Dockers for success. 25+ disposals each, 15 clearances between them, and at least 3 goals.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
Sam Lalor has been great and presents as the easy option here. I like being a bit obscure, but I can see him flourishing on Friday Night on the big stage. With many tuning in to watch, I’m backing Sam to have 20+ and 2 goals and strongly put forward his case for the Rising Star.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
I know this is usually reserved for a single player, but I’m backing in some of the big forwards. Charlie Curnow and Jesse Hogan in a shoot out on Saturday, Ben King against the Saints, Josh Treacy (the Dick Cyclone) against the beleaguered Power, even Jeremy Cameron and Aaron Naughton on Thursday Night … it’ll be a round that showcases the big boys kicking goals, as much of this season has.
In terms of goal output, though, don’t sleep on Jack Higgins, despite his stature, but his output is great. 4+ for him, and at least 3 for all the others mentioned.
The Winners (currently on 55; last week 5)
Geelong
Essendon
Carlton
Brisbane Lions
Collingwood
Fremantle
Adelaide
Melbourne
St Kilda
These predictions were made with only Thursday Night teams revealed. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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