NINE THINGS I LEARNT AFTER ROUND NINE
1 – FREMANTLE IS VERY UNLIKELY TO PLAY FINALS
We all know that Fremantle have played well below their best on the road so far this year. They’ve also played some good footy at home, although they have indeed lost two games at Optus Stadium. It’s almost for that reason alone that they’ll miss out on September action. It is vitally important to capitalise on a home ground advantage for the teams outside of Victoria in terms of being a finalist. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that having to travel for half of your games is a distinct disadvantage. Fremantle just aren’t in that top echelon as some thought they may be in pre-season talks. As good as Collingwood are, a stronger Dockers outfit wins this game. They’re just not quite there yet, and with Longmuir now in his seventh year at the helm, the pressure on him as building. This was touted as a big year for the club, and so far it’s anything but.
Collingwood are an extremely professional club. You will struggle to find a club that covers injuries better than the black and white. They entered this game with several players out through injury from the previous week and the players who came in to replace them slotted in seamlessly to help the Magpies to an admirable interstate win. With the absence of Mihocek up forward, Jamie Elliott kicked a career best six goals, and at the age of 32, he’s playing as well as he ever has. In fact, all of Collingwood’s players on the wrong side of 30 are all but causing all the damage, which suggests that Collingwood have discovered the fountain of youth somewhere in the corridors of the Lexus Centre.
Remarkably, Collingwood had 75 fewer disposals than the Dockers. And only entered their forward 50 on just 34 occasions while the Dockers had 62 entries. In many ways it can show what a bullshit statistic that can be at times as it doesn’t account for efficiency or depth of entries. But what it does show is a good team will make the most of their opportunities, and the Pies sure did that. Crisp was the only Magpie to have more than 20 touches. Even the Daicos brothers had 19 (Josh) and 18 (Nick), yet the Pies prevailed in the West to go 7-2. Collingwood have a danger game looming against Adelaide next round. The Crows have given them trouble in recent history, so they’ll need to be at their best.
Where to from here for the Dockers? They did so much right in this game, winning so many statistical battles, yet they fell short again resulting in their season slipping away week by week. Brayshaw had a game-high 34 possessions, but is he another one of those accumulators who doesn’t hurt the opposition enough? Jordan Clark was very strong in defence and had 33 touches. Josh Treacy looked set for a big night after kicking two goals in the first 15 minutes of the game, but sadly wasn’t able to add to that. When Voss kicked their fourth goal for the quarter, the Dockers had leapt out to a 20-point lead only to see Collingwood kick the next four goals to leads by quarter time. With their season looking very much on the precipice, a trip to Engie Stadium to play the Giants seems a daunting task despite the questionable form of the home team.
2 – THE BLUES KEEP THEIR HOPES ALIVE.. JUST!
The Blues will pay the price for losing their first four games no doubt. They have recovered somewhat to be 4-5 and in touch with the eight, but so much has to go right for them to be a part of September action, and it’s really hard to know if they are actually worthy of that. We know their best is pretty good, but they’ve also played some fairly disappointing games, none moreso than their recent trip to Adelaide. The month ahead will tell us if they are indeed worthy. Their next five games are actually quite winnable, so if they are at 9-5 by Round 15, then it would be a terrific recovery and anything could happen from there. But the Carlton we’ve seen at times this year is capable of losing all of those games as well.
Friday night against the Saints was a true danger game. Even the punters had mixed feelings about the game with the odds only slightly in Carlton’s favour. They prevailed in the end in what was a typically scrappy affair when playing a team coached by Ross Lyon. Both sides had 46 forward 50 entries, with Carlton being able to finish a little better. In fact most of the stats on the night were very even. When the Saints drew to within three points at the 15 minute mark of the final term, it almost looked as though the notorious second-half fadeout was rearing its ugly head again. However, just two minutes later, in just his tenth game and coming on as sub, Cooper Lord marked just inside 50 and seized the moment with an impressive kick from 50 to put the Blues nine points up.
With under two minutes remaining, both sides had added one behind before Harry McKay kicked the sealer from a tight angle to cap off a huge effort from the Carlton forward. Both he and Curnow finished the night with three goals each. George Hewett continued his great form with 26 touches alongside Cripps. Carlton’s recent record against the Swans in Sydney hasn’t been great, but the Sydney of 2025 are certainly beatable up there. As mentioned earlier, those are the games that must be won in order for Carlton to be worthy of a finals spot.
After an impressive win, the Saints would’ve come into this game with some confidence. They were certainly in the game for a huge majority of the night, but they were just edged out by a team with slightly better polish and finishing skills. The Saints tried to emulate Adelaide’s tactic of short kicking to players on their own, but this week Carlton were more awake to that and were able to cut off some of their passes having learnt a valuable lesson a week earlier. Up forward, Phillipou, Sharman and Higgins all kicked two goals each. Wanganeen-Milera was damaging at times with his 30 touches. Sinclair was also one of St Kilda’s best with 28 touches and a goal. Marshall and de Koning probably broke even in what was a good contest.
Whilst the Saints have been great at times this year, they’ve now lost four of their last five and are really heading in the wrong direction. They’ll be in Perth next week against the Eagles who are looking for their first win. They’ve come oh so close in the past few weeks, so their belief is growing. The Saints should be too good, but they may catch the Eagles on a big mission for a win and will need to be ready for whatever they’ll throw at them.
3 – HAWTHORN BROKE A SEVEN-YEAR DROUGHT ON SATURDAY
How many of you were aware that the Hawks had not beaten Melbourne since Round 4, 2018? I certainly didn’t until I overheard a discussion on the V-Line train I was on about this very topic among some Hawthorn supporters on their way to the game. The date was April 15. That’s a remarkable 2,582 days since Hawthorn tasted a victory against Melbourne, so it’s no wonder the Hawks faithful were feeling a little twitchy coming into this game, especially considering the Demons had won their last three. For three quarters, those nerves were tested further, but the last quarter belonged to the Hawks and the streak of nine games without a victory ended with a 35 point win.
Heading into that final term, it was game on with the Hawks just one point ahead with many pondering if this would derail their season with a potential third loss in five weeks looming. Gunston had only managed three behinds up until three quarter time, but he came good when it counted kicking three goals in the last while his offsider in Chol added two in what was a six-goal to one blitz that took the game away from the Dees. Better players for the Hawks included Worpel with 28 disposals, D’Ambrosio with 26 while Jiath had 25. The Hawks were pretty good, but they’ll need to be better if they want to beat the Suns on the Gold Coast.
Melbourne were right in it and a win would’ve gone a long way towards breathing new life into what was looking like a horror season just four weeks ago. Wayward kicking cost them dearly as did what would’ve been a certain goal to Pickett in the second term where he was clearly tripped in the square and there was no whistle. Even Stevie Wonder would’ve been disgusted with it. Jake Bowey continued his great season with a game-high possession count of 28, while the ever reliable Petracca had 26. The Rising Star nominee in Harvey Langford had a cracker of a day with 22 touches and three goals in what was his best game so far. Melbourne now have the daunting task of heading to the GABBA to play Brisbane next week. The Lions won’t be happy after managing just a draw against the Kangaroos.
4 – IS IT TIME WE TAKE ESSENDON MORE SERIOUSLY!
Yeah yeah, I know what you’re thinking with that burning question: Who have they beaten? It’s a fair point to make when you consider that the five victories they’ve enjoyed have been against no side sitting higher than 13th on the ladder at this point in time. Their three losses were against the 2nd, 3rd and 5th placed teams on the current ladder, so they haven’t lost to any poor teams as yet. You can only beat who you are playing against, and the Bombers are going along a little better than we thought they would. So do we take them seriously yet? Well, it’s interesting that they haven’t played any of those mid-table sides occupying the 6th to 12th positions on the AFL ladder. Until they play some of those sides and win a few of those, it’s a little hard to gauge. Round Ten against the Bulldogs is indeed one of those games, so this result may give us a better idea.
The Swans have started slowly on quite a few occasions this year and this game was as bad as any with the Bombers leading by 39 points at half time. Things swung Sydney’s way from that point, but any chance of running over the top of the Bombers was snuffed out by their poor conversion rate of 6.11 in the second half. The Bombers were able to hang on by eight points to leave Sydney languishing in 14th place with just three wins from nine. Will Hayward was the only multiple goal scorer with two. Roberts had 26 touches and Warner had 25. Sydney host Carlton at the SCG on Friday night. It hasn’t been a joyful venue for the Navy Blues in recent times. Both clubs will be desperate for a win.
Essendon beat Sydney comprehensively in most of the statistical areas. Incredibly, the Bombers had almost one hundred more possessions than the Swans yet could only manage 45 inside 50s to Sydney’s 61. Those numbers almost make no sense but it shows that Sydney were more efficient with their ball movement until they had to shoot for goal. Even the great Isaac Heeney could only muster two behinds. Nate Caddy continues to inch closer to that breakout game. He kicked three goals including Essendon’s only two goals after half time. Nic Martin topped the possession count with 38 touches while McGrath was next with 35. Let’s talk about the Bomber credentials after they play the Bulldogs.
5 – THE SUNS WON’T LIKE IT IF THEY BRING IN A NORTHERN TERRITORY TEAM
If Gold Coast is hard to beat at Carrara, then they may well be impossible to beat in Darwin. They remain undefeated after seven games since adopting TIO Stadium as their second home ground in 2022. The Bulldogs entered this contest in red hot form after three solid wins in a row, but although a late run nearly got them an unlikely win, the Suns looked to have their measure for a majority of proceedings. Ben King finished with 3.3 including a goal after the siren that gave the Suns a heart-stopping ten point win. Graham, Flanders and Holman kicked two goals each. Noah Anderson put in another solid game with 28 touches and Miller had 25. They almost let it slip, but they are still in the best position they’ve been in after Round Nine ever. Beating the Bulldogs was arguably taking a scalp, but if they can conjure a win back at their second home against Hawthorn this coming Thursday, there’s no better way to let the football world know that they’re the real deal.
The Bulldogs battled hard to stay in touch reeling the Suns in on a few occasions including that last quarter where the margin fell as low as just three points with still a few minutes remaining, Liberatore continued on with his hot form finishing with 35 touches while Richards was also prominent with 31. Former Blue Matt Kennedy top scored with three goals while West, Vandermeer and the impressive Davidson each kicked two. All eyes now shift to the upcoming clash against Essendon. Both clubs will be desperate to make a statement, and the winner will be seen as a contender, whilst the loser might be labelled a pretender.
6 – EVERY SHOWDOWN IS A 50/50 GAME
If you ask me how it is that I’ve come to this conclusion. It’s really as simple as can be. These sides have played each other a total of 57 times with Adelaide just in front 29-28. No matter where these two sides may be on the ladder, or regardless of what their formline is coming into these contests, these games are always very hard fought and very tight on the scoreboard. Despite the Power suffering a second terrible 15 goal shellacking last round, they certainly showed up to play and will feel stiff for not getting the chocolates. Finlayson played well up forward with three goals, meanwhile Georgiadis, Byrne-Jones and Powell-Pepper each scored two goals. Rozee, Butters and Wines all had 30+ touches and the Power had 21 more inside 50 entries and, just like the Dockers against Collingwood, couldn’t convert their opportunities. A home game awaits against the Cats next week. It’s anybody’s guess which way that one goes.
Adelaide seem to be moving in the right direction. They currently sit fifth on the ladder with a 6-3 record which would surprise many scribes who believed they wouldn’t be in contention, but a few things have changed and it may be time to start paying attention. The potency of their forward line is beyond question. Thilthorpe and Fogarty both kicked three goals each. Keays, Rankine and Rachele scored two goals each. Peatling has been very good since crossing from the Giants. He had 24 possessions, while Worrel was next best with 23.
As I said before, so many of these games are close. And so many will refer to this particular incarnation of the Showdown as an eight point game. Whatever the case, South Australia is a mad football state, and when it’s Showdown time in Adelaide, the entire city goes into meltdown. But for now Adelaide can enjoy the win but they will need to shift their focus immediately towards their upcoming match with Collingwood.
7 – TIGERS HAVE WON MORE GAMES THIS YEAR THAN THEY DID LAST YEAR
We know Richmond’s list has been stripped right back and there are a number of very young players running around in the yellow and black. The situation the club found itself in led many football fans to believe that Richmond would struggle to win a game this year. Last year they could only manage to win twice all year, and I believe the club should be pleased that in the first real year of a rebuild, winning three from the first nine is a good result. Lynch, Mansell and Campbell all kicked two goals each to lead the way for the Tigers, while Sam Banks staked his claim for staying a permanent midfielder with 28 touches beside his name. The Tigers might fancy their chances for a win against the Kangaroos next week to make it four wins for the year.
The Eagles won five games last year and looked to the naked eye that they were finding some areas of improvement. This year they’re winless after nine games and they’ve come close with no success so far this year. Ryan Maric had 26 touches and was the highest Eagle for disposals for the third week in a row. Jamie Cripps top-scored with three goals while Owies and Williams scored two apiece. The Eagles head back to Perth no doubt frustrated at another lost opportunity, but there should also be some optimism attached to that by virtue of the fact they’re displaying a more competitive effort in the past few weeks. They take on St Kilda next game and I imagine they might have enough belief to scare the Saints.
8 – SOMEBODY HAS CURSED THE CATS WHEN THE GIANTS PLAY AT GMHBA
Geelong are the one Victorian team that truly does enjoy the benefit of a home ground advantage. Most who play the Cats at GMHBA tend to do so with a loss to show for their efforts. Geelong would almost never lose to the same team twice in a row at home. It almost defies belief, however, that GWS has just beaten the Cats at home for the fourth time in a row. The Giants had also lost their past three games and were really looking down the barrel in terms of how their season might end. In their short history since joining the competition, these two teams have played each other just 16 times with Geelong still hold sway 9-7.
There was still considerable time on the clock when Riccardi kicked a goal that put the Giants back in front by five points. Some three minutes later, Mark Blicavs found himself some 30m out directly in front to put Geelong in front, and he tugged the kick left and into the goalpost. Yet again the Cats find themselves back into that middle pack of teams fighting for those last couple of spots in the eight when they could’ve been Top 4 had Blicavs kicked truly. But it wasn’t to be. The curse is still not broken. The Giants somehow keep winning down there and it may pay to keep that in mind when entering your footy tips. Bailey Smith continues to dominate the disposal numbers with 35 touches while Max Holmes battled hard all night with 30. Stengle could’ve had a bag but was a little wayward with 2.4. Cameron, Mannagh and Dempsey also finished with two goals each. Geelong have already had one win on in Adelaide against the Crows in Round Five, and they’ll be hoping they can repeat the dose when they play Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval this coming Saturday.
The Giants were sliding downhill in a big way and would’ve been expected by most to have lost this game as well. That would have put them outside the top eight with just four wins from nine games. There’s an element of good fortune in close victories, but they can clearly thank their lucky stars that a bloke called Jesse Hogan was out there, and it is a stark reminder just how important he is to that team. He kicked seven goals in a stellar performance that won the Giants the game. He now is second in the Coleman race on 25 goals for the year. Not bad for a bloke who has missed three games so far. Tom Green was the highest possession getter with a total of 37 while Lachie Whitfield also put his best foot forward with 30 touches. It’s back to their home ground next week in Western Sydney where they’ll be playing the Dockers. They should take the points and re-establish themselves as a top eight team again.
9 – WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THE TOP TEAM DREW WITH THE 17TH TEAM?
For most parts of this season, it seemed as though there was a chasm between the top and bottom teams. North Melbourne started OK but then suffered a couple soul-destroying losses and we then thought that their earlier form was fool’s gold. It’s clear now that, based on their last couple of weeks, they’ve had that talk behind closed doors nand the result has seen a far more competitive few weeks as opposed to the beltings they took from the likes of the Bulldogs, Sydney and Carlton.
North’s best players on Sunday included Davies-UnIacke with 32 touches while Sheezel had 29. North’s goalkickers included two to Zuurhar and Darling and the rest all singles. For the Lions, Hipwood and Rayner both kicked three. We mentioned the fountain of youth at Collingwood earlier. Dayne Zorko had a lazy 39 touches in this game and is still an amazing athlete who may reach 40 and still be playing. It’s very unusual to see the top side playing out a draw against a team with just one win from nine games. North Melbourne did extremely well to reel the Lions in as the game wore on, but they did grab the lead with a few minutes left and the Lions were able to hit back and tie things up. North still don’t know how to win right now. After matching it with the top side, the Kangaroos are just as likely to shit the bed and lose to the Tigers next week. They still haven’t won a first quarter yet. Maybe North should try and get that happening first before they can think about much else.
