ROUND SEVEN
We are 25% of the way through the Home & Away season and have a logjam through the lower part of the top 8. Each weekend has talking points—good and bad. This weekend is one of reflection and celebration.
As we head towards ANZAC Day, we all must stop, pause, and reflect on the sacrifice of many to keep our country free, meaning we can watch and enjoy the greatest game in the world. So, as we head into this iconic weekend, what stands out?
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Seven.
The Guarantee
It’s true that I have been critical of Nick Daicos quite a bit. I’ve never discounted his ability, just that he gets a lot of cheap possessions. Regardless of what Pies fans think, it is true. However, this prediction is about how many cheap possessions he gets.
ANZAC Day is one of the biggest matches every season. And across the last four iterations, the combined scores of each team are even. It doesn’t matter how either side is playing, they get up and about for this game. With regular Pies skipper Darcy Moore out injured, Nick Daicos will stand in as skipper.
We know already that the bigger the game, the better he plays. And while I expect Sam Durham and Nick Martin to go with Naicos at different times, I anticipate that Daicos won’t be over-awed donning the arm band, so to speak. Expect him to be in the top 3 for the ANZAC Medal.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
Brisbane loses two in a row. The same could be said for the Saints.
Last week, the Pies just outworked the Lions on their home deck, while the Saints were brutalised by the Dogs. The game is at Marvel, somewhere the Saints play well, but can they limit the output of the Lions and kick a big enough score? Can the Lions show some more intensity and physicality?
I expect that the Lions will win this, but they cannot afford to drop this one.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
I’ll get to the matches in a moment, but one unexpected winner this week was Ray Chamberlain. Say what you will about Razor, but his insight into the game, decision-making, and the challenges that umpires face is exceptional. This week on AFL360, in his weekly segment, Razor shouted down David King (and other broadcasters) for not knowing the rules of the game, and provided a great explanation around some calls that were deemed incorrect or controversial but average pundits. The segment was great, but gets extra credit for the take down of the man with the laptop.
Game-wise wise this weekend, it’s surprising to me that Richmond are such long odds against Melbourne. Sure, the Dees found their mojo last week, and some of their guns are finding form, but season-wide, the Tigers have been more consistent. I will tip Melbourne tonight, but we shouldn’t sleep on the young Tigers.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
Geelong bring in a debutant against the Blues at the ‘G in front of 80k fans. After Gryan Miers was the victim of a heinous assault during the game against the Hawks, a spot opens up in the 23 for probably the next two games. There are numerous avenues that the Cats can explore to replace him – a big body like George Stevens, who has been solid in the VFL and is close to a call-up, the veteran Mitch Duncan, giving Jhye Clark another run, or bringing in a relative like-for-like, Oli Wiltshire.
Personally, I hope the Cats pull the trigger on Wiltshire, who has been an emergency almost every week this season. He runs hard, is mercurial, and has been having a considerable impact in the VFL. Bringing in a debutant is always a bold call, especially in a big game. I hope the Cats make the call.
Essential Result (Must Win)
The Swans, in recent years, have been the Gold Coast’s bunny. And while the Swans’ output on the field has begun to improve, they need a win. The Suns embarrassed themselves last week against the Tigers at Marvel, continuing Dimma’s hoodoo at the roofed venue.
For both sides, this game shapes up as a must-win. The Suns need to get back on the winners list and stay close to the top four, while the Swans need to simply show something. They probably should have beaten Port last week.
Both of these sides need a win for differing reasons. It makes it an intriguing head-to-head across the weekend, and the Swans need to reverse some recent in-game trends and their form against the Suns if they are to win. For the Suns, they are back at home and no doubt Dimma will have given them a rev for the weekend.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
The Dockers were pre-season fancies for the top four and maybe even the Premiership. They have failed to live up to the hype and the billing thus far. Last week, they were strong favourites to beat a hapless Demons outfit and left the footy public disappointed. They didn’t bring the intensity. They face a Crows side who are playing good footy and hold some serious offensive firepower.
The Dockers are percentage outside the 8, but risk there being more distance put between them this weekend, and the Crows are seeking to stay in touching distance to the top four.
Under Friday Night lights, the Dockers are vulnerable, their season is vulnerable, and they need a response.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
Whenever the Dogs v Giants game rolls around, it is box office viewing. You know that the two sides don’t like each other, the media knows, and so you can’t help but get your popcorn ready.
The Dogs head into this in form, with the successful 3-vote return of Marcus Bontempelli last week. The Giants have been a little off the pace in recent weeks and need to respond. On Saturday Night in the nation’s capital, expect some spice and a great game of footy. Both sides have weapons all over the field, move the ball with speed and flair, and both can kick a score. Picking a winner isn’t easy, but it will be an easy watch.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
The Blues have won four of their past 15 games. Those four wins are two v North and two v the Eagles. Needless to say, they aren’t travelling super well against the decent teams. However, they can play spoiler for the Cats on Sunday afternoon.
Maybe it’s me trying not to jinx my own club (the Cats) by talking up the Blues, but they often match up well against us. Jacob Weitering has often traumatised the Cats and had the better of Tom Hawkins. It’s that contest that often sets the Blues up for success. So, the underdog performance for the Blues is that they win. A Cats win will require Shannon ‘Scratcher’ Neale to limit the impact of Weitering and to hit the scoreboard considerably himself. He probably needs to take 7+ marks (four of those inside 50) and kick 3+ goals for the Cats to win. All of these would be career highs for him.
Sam de Koning will also want to perform after having his pants pulled down by his older brother the last time these sides met.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
North Melbourne and Alistair Clarkson. There has been a lot of discussion about Clarko and whether he’s still up to the rigours of being a senior coach this week. We haven’t seen a lot of improvement in the Roos this year, and their defence is shot.
The Power have started to find their mojo, have multiple scoring threats, and Connor Rozee has been revitalised off half-back. North won’t win this, but they can show some heart, some intensity, and some level of footballing ability. They need to, and Clarko needs to bring that out of his players.
The Don (player of the round)
I mentioned Nick Daicos earlier, and he will feature. So will the Bont – expect him to back up his performance from last week, and so will Clayton Oliver. It’s been a so-so start to the season for Clarry. He has been a solid contributor, but has yet to rip a game apart. Thursday Night shapes as the perfect opportunity for him to do so.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
Henry Hustwaite has some big raps on him. And from some of the Hokball Mongrel Writers, they have been wanting him to get a run for a while. With Connor Nash’s suspension taking effect, Hustwaite is presented with an opportunity for an extended run in the AFL side. Hopefully, he isn’t the sub and can ply his trade. He was brutal and dominant in the VFL over the weekend and is perfectly poised to make a considerable impact. His size provides a point of difference to the Hawks’ midfield mix as well.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
Two players here. I expect James Sicily to respond. After he had a legitimate mare on Monday against the Cats – he couldn’t mark the ball or kick the ball efficiently – and while he is only playing against the hapless Eagles, it might be just what Sicily needs. Here’s to a couple of goals, 20+ disposals, and 100+ supercoach points for Sic.
The other player is the Chad. Fresh off inking his contract to stay in Sydney, Chad Warner with a weight off his shoulders, and I expect him to play with flair and freedom. 25+ disposals, 10+ clearances, and 2 goals.
The Winners (currently on 32; last week 2)
Melbourne
Collingwood
Adelaide
Brisbane
Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast
Carlton
Hawthorn
These predictions were made with all team lists available and a game late – that’s on me. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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