1 – GEELONG DEFIES THE TIPSTERS WITH A GUTSY WIN
Geelong’s season is well and truly alive after beating the Crows at Adelaide Oval on Thursday night. Adelaide entered the game as heavy favourites after winning their opening three games for the year, and when they lead by five goals midway through the second term, it seemed to be on script. The Cats worked their way back into the game with four of the final five goals scored before the long break.
The 12 point margin would’ve looked good to Cats fans as the Crows looked to be controlling the game for the most part. The late goals scored by the Cats would’ve been a great source of frustration for Matthew Nicks, and his worst fears were realised early in the third term when Geelong kept that scoring run going and took the lead. From that point on it was an arm wrestle with the Crows fighting back and taking the lead on occasion, but the composure of the Cats proved too much in the end as they took the points away from home for a memorable win to breathe some life into what was beginning to look like an indifferent season.
Jeremy Cameron had his best game for the year kicking four goals, as did Paddy Dangerfield who has now scored 11 goals for the season. Bailey Smith’s transition from a Dog to a Cat has been a highlight as he finished with 35 touches and a goal, while Max Holmes had 32. The Cats have a huge game next round against the Hawks. The win over the Crows away from home just became even more important.
The Crows have all of a sudden lost two in a row and what was looking like being a genuine tilt at finals now looks like being a work in progress. They’ve been very good so far this year, and they weren’t terrible against Geelong, but they’ll be ruing those lapses in this game where the Cats would string unanswered goals together.
After surrendering a 30 point lead early in the game, Geelong outscored the Crows by 14 goals to six in a dominant display that would concern Nicks and his crew. Even with Darcy Fogarty kicking four goals in the second term, they couldn’t take much of an ascendency to the long break. He was virtually unsighted after that but had a few mates with Ben Keays (three goals) and Taylor Walker (two) also unable to score after half time. The most concerning thing for the Crows was the final term which saw Geelong pile on 5.3 while the Crows were only able to add one goal to their three quarter time score.
Izak Rankine was one of Adelaide’s best finishing with two goals from 25 touches, despite entering the game with a calf issue. Matt Crouch had 28 while Hinge had 25. We’re about to find out a bit more about the Crows as they take on the Giants in Adelaide next week. Another loss there would undo all the good work of the opening three rounds and relegate the Crows to the middle bracket while football scribes around the nation might surmise their early wins came courtesy of a favourable draw.
2 – COLLINGWOOD MIGHT JUST BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN WE THOUGHT
I’m happy to put my hand up and say I thought the Swans would be too good for the Pies. In fact, each week I go into their games thinking they’re a chance to go down, but each week we all look on shaking our head in the knowledge that they simply know how to win as well as any club in the competition right now. They entered this game with key outs to injury including Lachie Schultz and Jordan de Goey, while Dan Houston can’t seem to keep out of trouble with his second suspension already this season. And with Sydney coming down to Melbourne to make light work of a disappointing Kangaroos last week, some could be forgiven for thinking that they were finding form and would’ve made life hard for the Magpies this week.
They were wrong by a fair way, and it was made clear by the way that Collingwood increased their lead every quarter and had the answers whenever the Swans challenged them. Up forward the load was shared with Mihocek, Hill and Elliott all finishing with three majors apiece. Nick Daicos might hear his name read out again on Brownlow night with 34 touches while Ned Long had 29 in a solid performance. Whilst you’ll be a brave man to tip against this team, yet another huge game looms next week as they venture up to Brisbane at the GABBA. It’ll be tough to walk away from that encounter with the four points, but if anybody is going to do it, it might just be this mob.
The Swans would have a few alarm bells sounding within the club right now. They would’ve been hoping to be in a better position than 2-3 at this point in time after their disappointing finish to their season last year. Whilst last year’s stars in Heeney and Warner are playing solid games with 28 touches and 24 respectively, they’re not having quite the same impact as they did last year, and the team is probably missing the silky skills of Errol Gulden a little more than they would like to admit.
Hayden McLean topped the scoring with three goals and looked impressive. But the reality is that they were outclassed by a more spirited and determined Collingwood, and there is no doubt that this year’s form is not anywhere near their best from last year, and the challenge for the players and coaches alike is to find their best if they want to be any chance of atoning for last year’s Grand Final capitulation. They’ll be back at home next week against Port Adelaide who surprised the football world this week with a scintillating win over Hawthorn. Sydney might need to come out hard in this affair, because a loss would really throw their season into turmoil.
3 – THE SUNS HAVE THEIR BEST START TO A SEASON
Never before have the Gold Coast Suns won its opening four matches of a season. And never before did they have a triple premiership coach guiding them. All the planets seem to be lining up for them, but I guess we won’t really know exactly how good they are until we see them take on teams that look likely to be finalists this year. They’ve had their four wins over West Coast, Melbourne, Adelaide and North Melbourne. The win against Adelaide required some work, but their other three wins were against three teams who’ve had just one win between them for the season. That said, the Suns won those three games by an average of 66 points, so it’s fair to say there’s a sizeable gap between them and the bottom four or five teams. And their favourable draw continues into next round when they head to Melbourne to play the Tigers which should see them ending up 5-0 with a monster percentage.
We may learn a little more from the Suns after Rounds 7 and 8. They play the Swans at home followed by a one hour trip up the road for what is shaping up to be the biggest Q-clash so far.
Late in the third term, the Kangaroos drew level with the Suns and viewers might’ve been thinking that the Suns of old might be making a return which would see them lose on the road in a game most expected them to win. But from that point on it was an annihilation, as the Suns booted three late goals before the final break plus another seven in the final term while their opponents could only manage two. The final result was a very resounding 52 point win and that final quarter and a bit of football showed that the Suns have another gear which has been missing since their inception in 2011.
Ben King finished with five goals and sits equal first in the race for the Coleman with 17 goals and a game in hand. Rowell and Anderson dominated the midfield yet again while Miller also had a solid night, but the top possession getter, with 28, was former Pie John Noble. Now at his third club, Noble has slotted in very nicely and it’s probably a little puzzling that he has been squeezed out of two clubs now. So the Suns know what’s ahead of them in the next few weeks. If you follow a team that is probably not going to make finals this year, it might be worth jumping on these blokes as a back-up. I’m liking what I’m seeing so far.
It has to be said that North Melbourne may be still stuck in that bottom group. Their opening three rounds showed promise, with a solid effort against the Dogs, a huge win against the Demons and a loss to the Dockers in Perth where they still showed some fight. However, the dismantling they copped at the hands of Sydney in Round 4 might have signalled a return to their form from yesteryear. They looked very second rate in that game, and while the first three quarters against the Suns were impressive, to go down by 52 points in the end shows just how far off they still are. Where to from here is anybody’s guess, but Roos fans are in for another long year it would seem.
Caleb Daniel seems to be playing his role grabbing 32 possessions this week. Sheezel is a star and one wonders how much more we’d be talking about the 20 year old if he was at a club that was further up the ladder. Jy Simpkin is having a solid year and enjoying the captaincy. He finished with 24 touches and 2 goals. The Good Friday match against the Blues might’ve had many thinking that North were in with a real chance, but based on the past fortnight, even the struggling Blues look to be a bit too good for them. Maybe the coaching staff at Arden Street should show them a replay of Carlton’s Round 1 loss to Richmond for inspiration…
4 – CARLTON FANS CAN SHOW THEIR FACES IN PUBLIC AGAIN
I recognise that the heading is a little dramatic, but I can tell you, that as a Carlton fan myself, it has not been easy to come out and admit that they’re my team this past month, and I would’ve been damned wearing anything that displayed the emblem during this time. Because, I can tell you, that when you have something revealing you’re a Blue, you get three different kinds of looks when you’re out and about.
The first one is a look of deep sympathy from the nicer footy fans, the second one is that look of feeling the pain from fellow Carlton supporters, and the third is laughter and derision from those nasty fans who revel in Carlton’s 30 years of misery. In fact, if the Blues failed to beat the Eagles, you may have seen a situation where Carlton fans decided to never leave home again and Good Friday against the Kangaroos might’ve been devoid of any Navy Blue in the crowd with the supporter group too fearful of the humiliation of being 0-6 with successive losses against two teams who have been basket cases for the last few years. As it stands now, the Blues look pretty likely to have a win against the Roos and go some of the way towards getting their season back on track.
The Blues are not without a few problems going into that game. In just his first quarter back after a three week layoff, Harry McKay was taken off after a head clash and will miss next week’s game as a result, while Brodie Kemp was clearly in a lot of pain as he was escorted from the ground with what could be a season ending achilles injury. On a positive note, after missing a lot of football over the past two years through injury, a rejuvenated Corey Durdin was brought into the side for his first game in 2025, and he may just have put an end to Carlton’s search for a gun small forward. He topped the goal kicking with four majors and made the most of his opportunities.
With Carlton playing below what was expected so far this year, it would be easy to have missed the stellar year that George Hewett is having. He’s averaging 29 possessions a game and has booted four goals. His lowest output has been 25 touches, and throughout their bad weeks has remained consistent and would be leading the way in Carlton’s best and fairest count to this point. This game he starred again with a whopping 39 touches, and this game may have signalled a welcome return to form for Sam Walsh who banged on three goals, all in the second term, finishing with an impressive 37 touches. Patty Cripps looked good up forward late in the game when Curnow was rested. He kicked three goals for the match including two in that final term. Perhaps he might finish his career that way. The Eagles might be a team that you’d expect to beat, but there’s nothing like having a win after a rough period to boost your confidence, and the Blues should go into next week’s game against North Melbourne as heavy favourites after a 71 point smashing.
Poor old Andrew McQualter. Getting a head coaching job is a huge achievement, and in real terms, it’s an honour that so few could ever receive. Adem Yze is in a similar boat to Andrew’s, and that is the challenge of coaching a team that is at a very low point. It really is hard to see where the Eagles will find a win. I know we say that every year about one club or other, and in every case the club in question wins a game or two. But if West Coast played Richmond tomorrow, I’d be leaning slightly towards the Tigers for now. I think North would beat them and even the Demons should find a way as well. I’m sure a win will come at some point, but they don’t look to be a team who can serve it up to anyone on current form, and I’m not sure what the coach can do.
He made a statement dropping Tim Kelly for this game, but Kelly might’ve had a wry smile on his face while looking on. They sure could’ve used him in the middle yesterday. Former Tigers Liam Baker and Jack Graham must be wondering what they did wrong to leave one struggling club to end up in another team that seemed to be on the up from last year’s showing. People have talked tirelessly about the shoddy skills displayed by Carlton this year, but the Eagles couldn’t hit the side of a barn yesterday registering 6.14 for the match. The forward line looked better with Jake Waterman back in the team, but there was very few bright spots in a team that looks sadly out of its depth right now in the AFL. I know they’ll probably have wins at some point, but on current form, it may not happen.
5 – BRISBANE’S LUCK IS BOUND TO RUN OUT AT SOME POINT
Some reading this may be wondering what I mean. It’s relating to the habit that the Lions seem to have fallen into of starting off games a little slowly. In Round One against the Swans they trailed by 22 points in the first quarter before slowly working their way back into the game and eventually running out winners by four points in a tight finish. Even against the Eagles they allowed them to kick the first five goals of the game before they clicked into gear, eventually winning by just 19 points against a team most will be using as a percentage booster. In Round Three they found themselves 32 points behind the Cats nearing half time, and they got up in the end by nine points. This week saw them achieve their biggest comeback so far as they found themselves 39 points down against the Bulldogs a little after half time, before then slotting through nine unanswered goals and eventually taking the four points by 21 in what was essentially a ten goal turnaround. So, four out of five matches so far has seen them having to chase down teams, and eventually they’re going to give some team a start that won’t surrender their lead so easily.
Eric Hipwood was an important part of their revival booting five goals while young star on the rise Logan Morris kicked four. Zac Bailey was good again kicking three, while McCluggage (32), Ashcroft (31) and Neale (28) won the battle of the midfield. I think it’s only fitting that the Lions take on Collingwood this coming Thursday. The Pies have also made a habit of come from behind wins in recent years. Maybe this game will see very little scoring by both sides early as they’ll give each other a start, and then both teams will score heavily after half time with both sides refusing to lose in an epic battle. Or, possibly the Lions will start slowly again and let Collingwood get out to a lead that they can’t reel in as their luck may finally run out. I’m pretty sure that Chris Fagan will be putting in a plan to circumvent this scenario, but I’m guessing he does that most weeks.
The Bulldogs continue to be that team that seem close but also far away. They’ve been in every game this year but have only won two out of five. It will be a source of great frustration to have been 39 points ahead only to concede the next nine goals. Us supporters look on in those games waiting for the coach to make a move or do something to stop the bleeding. It seems to us as though he can’t see what we’re seeing, and that even some bum like me sitting up in Level 3, Row Q Seat 43 can see what needs to be done to stop the opposition scoring. If only it were that easy. The reality is, however, the Dogs look like once again being a team that will probably miss finals, and it might be hard to see their current coach surviving beyond this season.
A quick look at the injury list shows Bontempelli still a week or so away from returning. I’m sure his return will provide a spark of sorts, but whether that will be enough to change their fortunes remains to be seen. Naughton booted three goals for the Bulldogs while Brisbane’s defence did well to hold Sam Darcy to just two majors. Richards topped the possession count with 29 in what is proving to be another solid season.
This loss will hurt. Losing from a very winnable position is always painful, and next week’s game against the Saints now becomes season-defining. The Saints went down to the Giants who were very strong in victory, so after starting the season well, St Kilda will be keen to bounce back with a victory to stay in touch with the eight. These two teams have had some classic encounters this century, and this one comes along at a time with both teams’ seasons in the balance. It’s a coin flip for tipsters.
6 – MELBOURNE DESPERATELY NEED SOME POWER FORWARDS
Even in their premiership year just three seasons ago, the one thing Melbourne were concerned about was their forward line and the lack of a genuine goal kicker. They tried Ben Brown with mixed results. Weidemann came along with some hopes but that didn’t pan out. Now they have Van Rooyen who’s been there a few years now, and so far he hasn’t fired a shot. They even got Josh Schache down to the club, but he never seemed to be able to find his feet at AFL level. For a while at least, Bayley Fritsch was able to fulfil the role of the main forward and it seemed the problem was under control in their successful years. Fritsch is still battling hard kicking two in this game, but his year has been a little down on his best.
The reality is that the Demons are averaging 61 points per game while conceding an average of 101, and while the Bombers came into this game with just the one win, their average score was in the eighties. For me, tipping the Bombers was a no brainer, and the scoreline wasn’t far off each team’s scoring average for the year with 57 against 96. As far as I’m concerned, it pretty much followed the script. A quick look at the stat sheet will reveal that Melbourne won the inside 50 count 51-43, yet could only manage 8 goals while Essendon scored 15. It’s pretty clear where the problem lies.
The Bombers are that team that will beat all the struggling teams comfortably but won’t be good enough to beat any of the genuine contenders. It’s been the story of this club for the best part of twenty odd years, and their lack of finals appearances and most definitely finals wins is a source of great frustration and embarrassment for this very proud club. It does seem likely at this stage that this year will see more of the same. Despite this good win, as I said earlier, when the Bombers are playing the better teams, they fight admirably and push them, but rarely take the points. Jye Menzie had one of his best returns for the red and black in his 37th game finishing with four goals from 15 touches. Zach Merrett did what Zach Merrett does finishing with a game high 37 possessions. The Bombers go to Perth to take on the Eagles next week, and they will be confident of coming home with the 4 points and a 3-3 record. That will put them in touch, but they’re going to have to figure out what is the missing ingredient in making them a possible finalist.
7 – JOSH TREACY IS THE SORT OF FORWARD MELBOURNE NEEDS
Josh Treacy is in foreign territory in his 61 game career, atop the Coleman leader board alongside Ben King with 17 goals, albeit with the Sun having a spare game in hand. The six goal haul against the Tigers well and truly announces his arrival as a genuine power forward, the kind of which Melbourne lack. Fremantle have had their own issues with regards to scoring in the past few years, however this year they’re averaging a fairly healthy 89 points per game, and that would be due in part to this guy up forward. Let’s not forget the midfield pair of Serong and Brayshaw providing the supply with 29 and 31 touches respectively.
Freo have won three in a row after dropping their opening two matches and find themselves sitting in 8th position. They come to Melbourne to take on the struggling Demons at the MCG next week. The Dees will be determined to open up their account with an upset win over the Dockers. Fremantle in recent years have sometimes fallen short when travelling. If they want to play finals this year, these games have to be won.
Richmond have been competitive in most games up to half time, but they can’t seem to come out after the break with any run. They could only manage 1.2 for the entire second half while their opponents kicked 9.5, in what was a fairly bruise-free victory for the Dockers. Hopper and Taranto always seem to get plenty of the ball, but the young Tigers around them are still finding their way. Tom Lynch seems to be finding the going tough without the likes of Dusty and Cotchin coming out of the middle to set up his scoring opportunities.
We all knew coming into the year they were in for a tough one, and it’s playing out as we expected. I guess we can only look to a few years from now when the likes of Sam Lalor passes 50 games and becomes a true star of the AFL, but there’ll be a bit of pain before we will see some big forward strides. The Tigers take on the Suns next week at Marvel. In previous years, the Tigers might’ve seen this as a genuine chance for 4 points, but the Gold Coast of 2025 seem to be a very different proposition.
8 – THE GIANTS FLEX THEIR MUSCLE AGAINST THE SAINTS
The Saints have started their 2025 campaign better than most expected them to. Their win over Geelong was epic, and beating the Power in Adelaide last week also was impressive. At the 20 minute mark of the first quarter, they lead the Giants by three goals and all of a sudden we were thinking that St Kilda might just be the real deal. However, from that point on, GWS showed St Kilda and the rest of the competition that they mean business. The second and third quarters was a case of stamping their authority with a resounding 12 to 4 goal blitz that had the Giants 50 points up at three quarter time. Toby Greene was the destroyer, kicking five goals in a masterful display from his 17 touches. This week Jesse Hogan could only manage a couple majors to put him up to 15 goals, two off the lead for the Coleman trophy. And with Jake Stringer in the side kicking twomajors, it will be interesting to see what he can bring to this team if he starts firing. Lachie Ash topped the possession count with 33 while Josh Kelly and Tom Green both had 28.
It’s looking like the Giants will be there when the whips are cracking yet again, and they do seem to be able to play the game in bursts where you’re eight goals down before you can blink. And despite the fact that the Crows have lost their last two, they’re still going to be hard to beat on their home turf next round. The Cats may have laid down the blueprint for beating them at home and hopefully the Giants have taken note, but whatever the case, the football world is salivating at the prospect of this game being a season-defining game for both teams.
The Saints have performed way above expectations already this year, and it’s fair to say that most sides will treat them respectfully when they next meet. They’ve surprised us up till now, but the Giants may have put them back in their box after the football lesson they meted out to them on Sunday. As good a coach that Ross Lyon is, he would have been powerless to stop that onslaught as that famous orange tsunami hit hard with wave after wave of forward attacks. He may take some heart in the fact that his team kept the Giants to just five behinds in the final term, but the damage was done as they went down by a respectable 28 points in the end.
Wanganeen-Milera showed he is capable at both ends playing forward and kicking three goals from 24 possessions. Cooper Sharman also put three on the board, while Jack Sinclair had another strong performance with 26 touches and a goal. The Saints have a huge game looming against the Bulldogs. When they talk about eight-point games, these are the types of encounters being referred to as the loser will potentially slip out of contention whilst the winner could find themselves right in amongst it.
9 – PORT ADELAIDE HAVE FINALLY COME TO PLAY
I think I’m speaking on behalf of all Port fans when I say “Hallelujah!”
So, where has that effort been? And why did it take until Round Five to show up? The Hawks looked completely shell-shocked. Before they could even blink, they were as much as 71 points down and were staring down the barrel of a complete obliteration. Fortunately for them they fought back into the game and at one stage drew to within 22 points with over eight minutes remaining.
The record for the biggest comeback from 69 points was in serious danger until Powell-Pepper broke Hawthorn’s run with a clever snap followed by a double-goal from Willie Rioli who was paid a free kick after being manhandled as he booted a goal. So the record remains intact and any thought of a historic win by the Hawks was immediately snuffed out. P
ort Adelaide had a fair spread of goalkickers with Georgiades and Rioli both scoring three majors each. Butters is back to his best finishing the match with a game-high 33 touches and Horne-Francis was busy with 29. Before this game, I would’ve seen next week’s trip to Sydney as a certain loss due to their indifferent form this season with just the one win against their name courtesy of the struggling Tigers, but after their dynamic start today and their subsequent 30 point win over a form side in Hawthorn, if they take that effort into the SCG, the Swans might have a real battle on their hands.
Whilst observing Hawthorn games this year, and in the latter part of last season, I often see their captain in James Sicily looking quite calm and resolute on the field. His demeanour often suggests somebody who is in complete control and knows what is required to succeed in whatever task they take on. I would argue that when the Hawks are winning games, he even looks smug from time to time, but I don’t mind smugness when you’ve got the talent to back it up. However, at one stage during the second term as the Power were taking the gamer well and truly away from the previously undefeated Hawks, for the first time in a long time I saw a man who looked confused and unsure as to what to do to change the course of this game.
With just a few minutes remaining before half time, the score was 79 to 8 in scenes reminiscent of last year’s game against the Swans when the Power had 71 on the board before the Swans had even scored at all. Luckily Hawthorn kicked the last two goals of the term to reduce the margin to 59 points, which by any measure is still massive. As expected, the Hawks did come out firing after half time and looked like almost creating history for a while, but the correct result eventuated as Port Adelaide were the far better side for most of the night.
Jack Gunston was a star for Hawthorn booting six goals and playing a huge role in getting them back within striking distance. Any talk of him retiring might’ve been put to bed after this effort. Sicily and Meek both chimed in with two goals apiece while Jai Newcombe had a solid game with 29 possessions. The Hawks will get to lick their wounds and hopefully bounce back next week as they take on the might Cats at the MCG in their annual Easter Monday spectacular.
