There is a simple saying; if can wrong, it will go wrong.
So said the pessimist. This is why I fear the Round 25 clash between the Gold Coast Suns and Essendon could be an unmitigated disaster. In the AFL’s effort to find the quickest solution possible without thinking about the consequences, Z Round is a minefield.
In 2016 the AFL, in their wisdom, decided there should be a ‘bye’ before the finals to give each club a chance to refresh for the finals and for the AFL to have an awards week. The bye before the finals placed the teams who finished top four at a clear disadvantage, especially the teams that won in the first week of finals. in some cases, it left teams having played one game in a month.
Anyway, I digress, back to the Suns and the Bombers playing a game during this bye week which could have ramifications not just for the two clubs playing but also for teams who are in or around the finals.
Let’s have a look at how this could play out.
Worst Case Scenario
Going into the ‘Z Round’ match Essendon are sitting securely in eighth spot, they cannot go up and they cannot go down. However, the Suns are sitting in fifth, a game and percentage (worth about six goals) behind the team in fourth. Essendon have every right to rest as many players as possible, as the game is a dead rubber for them, whereas the Suns gain the advantage of weakened Bombers team, and they win easily by ten goals.
In no known universe is this scenario fair. It is not fair to the team sitting in fourth position, it is not fair to the supporters of other clubs booking interstate trips for the first week of the finals, and most importantly, it is not fair to the integrity of the competition.
The AFL would be hoping neither team is in finals contention as any impropriety can be swept under the carpet and never spoken about again.
I pose the question; would the scenario be the same if it was Collingwood in this position?
For the record, my feeling about the Pies is relatively neutral, but even the most ardent Collingwood supporter would agree they are the AFL’s financial darlings.
I’ll now take this a step further – what if the fourth team was Collingwood, and they were team going from a potential double chance to knock out final because Essendon basically closed up shop for the game?
There would be blood on the steps of AFL House.
There are so many permutations as to how the ‘Z Round’ could play out, and it just doesn’t affect the Suns and the Bombers, it has the potential to upset the travel plans of clubs and fans of the other clubs.
The AFL’s Perfect Storm
If, come ‘Z Round’, both of these teams are sitting in eighth and ninth positions on the ladder and they both need the win to make the finals, then it would be a full-on battle that doesn’t affect any other club, and the AFL can say it was rip-snorter of an idea. Further, they could use the success as the basis for a Wild Card Round in years to come.
Seriously, they couldn’t be that lucky.
The AFL Got Lucky with Brisbane v Geelong
I think this self-explanatory, but the AFL avoided a double embarrassment because they scheduled both teams to have their ‘O Round’ bye on the same weekend. The AFL certainly got lucky, as no other club who played ‘O Round’ has their bye on the same weekend as their opponent.
It begs the question, why aren’t the other clubs who played ‘O Round’ having their bye on the same week as their opponent? Maybe food for thought in fixturing next year.
Cyclones, Heat and other Factors
I reviewed a game on Sunday where the players of both clubs were seriously distressed playing a day game on a hot Brisbane afternoon, with stifling humidity. Some players were cramping up in the first half and come the final quarter, the less experienced Eagles team had nothing left in the tank. Brisbane won the attrition battle, but at what cost?
I will be watching the Brisbane v Geelong match next weekend to see how much energy playing a game in those conditions had on their players the following week.
With the season now starting in early March, and the AFL’s push to spread the word about the competition in the northern states, the AFL needs a clear midseason bye (all teams not playing) to allow for the possibility that games can be rescheduled if cyclones, floods, heat or any other natural factors prevent a game from starting.
Further, it is not unusual for Perth and Adelaide to have extreme heat in March, and while I’m not sure what the cut-off temperature is for postponing a match is due to heat, I think is about 35 degrees for racehorses.
Call it a midseason bye where no teams play, but games can be rescheduled – an insurance policy if you want.
The problems with a clear midseason bye are numerous, especially if clubs do have to play on that weekend, they lose their week off a result, but it is possibly the best solution to a scenario (and foreseeable scenarios) that doesn’t have any true fair and equitable outcome.
What do you think? Have the AFL set themselves up to fail?
Again?