ROUND ONE
Like a Phoenix rising from the ashes, so is the AFL after the natural disaster that was Opening Round. As the one true oracle of the AFL, I had to stand unified with the patrons of the game – the fans – and not subject anyone to Opening Round predictions.
In 2025, the Prophet returns. No one commented on my outrageous Crystal Ball predictions, so that has emboldened me to perhaps embrace the ridiculous a little bit more than normal this year. Unlike John Cena who sold his soul, you won’t find the Prophet turning heel on the people – at least, not this early in the season.
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round One.
The Guarantee
It’s a very bold guarantee, but in the final game of the round, out west, the Eagles beat the Suns, showing that Gold Coast still haven’t worked out how to win away from home. The Suns have a few injuries and do boast the better list, but I reckon the Eagles will be up for it. And there’s no point picking the Suns away from home until they start winning.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
Adelaide lose to an injury-riddled Saints side in Adelaide. The Crom should win this pretty comfortably, all things considered. They have a healthier list, should be progressing, and are at home. If the Crows lose, Matty Nicks could very quickly find himself in the Centrelink queue looking for work. It would be disastrous for the Crows to lose this one.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
I’m not quite brave enough to call this result as yet – maybe team selection will sway me – but with no Marcus Bontempelli and a host of others available for the Dogs, North Melbourne could pull off an upset and add fuel to the fire at the Kennel. Don’t sleep on what North could pull off this weekend.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
I have a theory when I tip, but Opening Round kind of dilutes that. My usual theory is never tip Collingwood in Round One and always tip Geelong. I have that theory because of history and how these teams often start. So, I didn’t Collingwood last week and was proven correct. So, I’ll tip Geelong this week, even with it being eight years since they’ve beaten Freo at Alphabet Stadium in Geelong. I’m also going to double down on not tipping Collingwood as they look gassed already. So, I’m going out on a limb to pick the Power from Port.
Essential Result (Must Win)
Melbourne have been vocal about keeping players, that they are happy to be there, and the side is looking good. All the hyperbole and grandstanding has to end now, and the players need to respond. They come up against a rampaging Orange Team on Sunday at the ‘G, so what better time to send a message to the competition that they have sorted their off-field dramas, fixed the culture, and have returned to playing good football than a win on Sunday? Yeah … nah, I don’t see it happening. The Giants look scary good and Melbourne have burned trust in recent seasons. This remains a must-win game for the Dees in order to start to rebuild the aura they had in 2021.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
The Swans. After folding like a tree in Cyclone Alfred in last year’s Grand Final, and falling apart against the Hawks, the Swans need to respond. If they have any level of pride, then they have set themselves for this weekend taking on the team who vanquished them in September – Brisbane. The Lions have had a delayed start after not being subjected to the idiocy of Opening Round, and will be ready for a first-up contest at the SCG. A Swans loss, going 0-2, will not be what new coach Dean Cox was hoping for.
The Must Watch (match up or game)
Friday Night Footy at the ‘G. The old rivals of Essendon and Hawthorn staring each other down. While this match-up is rich with history, the 2025 iterations of these sides have massive chips on their shoulders and out to prove they belong. What should be a frenetic game is bookended by young guns up forward. The Wizard and Jack Ginnivan for Hokball, while the Dons have Nate Caddy and Isaac Kako. All four illicit crowd responses and are something of cult figures – and Kako hasn’t played a senior game yet. While I’ll tip the Hawks, I’m giving the points to the Bombers duo.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
I’m going to give this to Fox Footy. Some of you might think that because they are pay TV they aren’t underdogs. In terms of broadcasting, with their own people, an entire weekend of footy … they haven’t done this before. And with them having the Monopoly on Saturday Footy, the pressure is on for them to deliver.
Channel 7 have been associated with footy for a long time. Now, it’s time for Fox Footy to properly and completely step out of 7’s shadow. Bring on Friday Night Footy with Huddo & Gerard!
It’s a Big Weekend For …
Nick Daicos. He copped it from the Corn on Channel 7, with his fitness and preparation called into question. The Pies have said it was just cramp and now the Pies are set to play on a balmy Autumn night in Melbourne. Daicos needs a big game, unimpeded by cramp. If his body seizes up again, like he’s been hit with Petrificus Totalus in the Harry Potter universe, then he better buckle up for the media storm (mostly the Vol-Kane-O) coming his way.
The Don (player of the round)
There’s a host of players I expect to play well, but Patrick Cripps should be stat padding on Thursday Night. Coming up against a Tigers side who realistically could have a winless 2025, Cripps, the record-breaking Brownlow Medallist, will get one vote solely for breathing. So, he should be aiming to solidly contribute to get three votes.
Jokes aside, Cripps should dominate his younger opponents, and even the likes of Hopper and Taranto. I don’t know that the Tigers have anyone to go with him, so it should be a big night for Crippa.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
Immediately I think of Isaac Kako, but in the interest of sharing the love, I’m keen to see a few young Tiger cubs run around this weekend. Sam Lalor looks built for the game and is set to start on-field tonight. The other young cub is someone I was hoping would somehow exist at Geelong’s opening pick, and that’s Harry Armstrong. A key forward with some size he presents as someone who could have a successful career. Let’s see what he can do with limited opportunities.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
Oscar Piastri finishes on the podium of his home Grand Prix. Give the kid the keys to the city!
There was debate among the Mongrel Punt team in recent days about the impact Gryan Miers has. I’m very staunch on the fact that he’s the most important component in the Cats ball movement and should be tagged. As such, I’m backing Gryan in for 20+ disposals, 2 goals, and 8+ score involvements against the Dockers.
The Winners (currently on 2)
Carlton
Hawthorn
Geelong
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs
Port Adelaide
Adelaide
Greater Western Sydney
West Coast
These predictions were made with only the Thursday Night teams available. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
