Heading into the 2025 AFL season, there should be no question that the Sydney Swans are one of the best, and most complete lists in the game. Packed with talent across every line, they have made it to the doorstep of success in two of the past three seasons.
And they have tripped over it and fell flat on their faces.
On one hand, you have the redemption arc for this squad, and they are capable of playing out that scenario to find themselves in a position to rectify the failures of 2022 and 2024. But on the other side, there are some serious questions about the group, and whether they can put it all together again, and go one step further to claim the flag.
For John Longmire, it all became too much at the end of the 2024 season. His time as the leader of this group of young men came to an end, and he handed the reins over to his (long suffering) assistant, Dean Cox. It was about as smooth a transition of power as you’ll see in the AFL, with Horse remaining at the club in a different role, and Cox refusing to entertain questions about the potential of him heading back to Western Australia to coach the Eagles.
With a new, yet familiar, voice in the coaching box, we should see some refinements to the Swans’ game plan and some tweaks that Cox has always preferred to the line up. But do we trust this team to pull together and make it all work?
And if not, why not?
After being so much on board with what the Swans were doing over 2021-24… I can’t say I trust them, anymore. Not completely, and I wonder whether that trust has also eroded within the supporter-base, somewhat?
The sad fact is that trust is difficult to earn, but easy to lose, and with those Grand Final capitulations, the Swans undid all the hard work they did to earn trust in the lead up. And they won’t be able to truly reinstate that trust until they get back to the point of failure again. It’s a harsh grade for a club – make the Grand Final just to earn trust – but that’s where we find Sydney as we enter the year.
I have had trust in this group. I have been a big fan over the way they have cultivated their list and built the team into a power. Even as their form wavered in the second half of 2024, I viewed it as a slump rather than a complete falling away, and that was proven to be correct. You don’t fight your way to a Grand Final whilst in a slump. It’s basically impossible.
However, once they got there, the team that took all before them in the first half of the season fell over against the team that took all before them in the second half of the season.
Perhaps Sydney learnt a little about being July-Premiers? Perhaps preparation changes a little with that in mind?
Unlike 2024, there are many questions being bandied around about the stability of the Swans in 2025. First and foremost, is the future of Chad Warner, who has refused to categorically state he wants to be with the side following this season. The questions will linger, but, despite what some may think, the Swans are well-equipped to cover him.
Whilst most trot out the “big three” argument for the Sydney midfield that is quickly becoming tired, they fail to address the presence of James Rowbottom, who is every bit as important to the Sydney mix as Heeney, Gulden, or Warner. What Rowbottom brings is the in-and-under and defensive presence that gives balance to the force… err, I mean the Swans midfield.
Actually, let’s stick with Star Wars for a second – if the possibility of Warner leaving is the dark side of 2025, then Rowbottom represents the light. I am a big believer in what he provides, week-in, and week-out. No trust issues there.
Questions about the disruption of a new coach at the helm linger over the group, but with the group already familiar with the former Eagle, I cannot see this being a huge problem, particularly if some of the Swans’ game plan was something Dean Cox played a part in creating. I don’t expect him to attempt to reinvent the wheel.
And then there is the forward line, which failed to stand up under the pressure of finals footy.
Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald, and Hayden McLean make up the tall options, but the possibility of using Tom McCartin as a swingman certainly changes the dynamic. We saw in the match sim against the Giants, McCartin commanded the attention of Jack Buckley, which left Amartey to feast on the carcasses of Leek Aleer and Harry Himmelberg.
Tweaks. No reinventions.
Of course, they will have to be better than what they displayed in the 2024 Grand Final, but let’s face it… they couldn’t get much worse, could they?
And finally, there are questions about the effort in the Grand Final. There was some damning vision of the Swans players, who looked like they were cooked. Either cooked, or resigned to the fact they were going to lose, and didn’t run defensively. The Lions ran over them and away from them, and they didn’t give a yelp. Players like Errol Gulden and Justin McInerney have to wear that. It is like a stain on a career to be called out in a Grand Final loss, and there is only one way to fix it.
I cannot blame the Swans supporters for being wary of the team heading into the new season. Their first three weeks look tough – Hawthorn and Brisbane at the SCG, before a road trip to Freo before they have a bye. I don’t think anyone expects them to start 3-0 and start entertaining conversations about “who can beat this mob?”
Not this year.
No, if anything, the home and away season is simply an entrée to the main course, which will be served in September, and whilst the Swans are pretty much guaranteed a seat at the table, what supporters don’t want to see is them fill up on bread and push their plate away, full after a few bites.
In the AFL, trust should probably be counted as a four-letter word. The end to the 2024 season saw the Swans lose a fair bit of it, and the road back to regaining it is a long one.
I want to trust this team again. I really do.
But they’re going to have to earn it, and it won’t be easy.
As always, massive thanks to those who support this work. I love writing about it, and I hope you enjoy reading it. Without you, this whole thing falls over. Sincerely… thank you – HB
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