PART SEVEN: ALL TALENT, NO HEART?
Part Seven of our series takes us to perhaps the most opposite teams in the AFL. One that relies too heavily on its elite talent to get the job done, the other with a culture of winning based purely on the emotion and spirit of the jumper.
But both have been underwhelming for a little too long, and need to shed that tag before it’s too late. Before all that talent and culture is wasted.
List Analysis Part Seven: Carlton and Sydney.
CARLTON:
2025 Best 23:
B: Sam Docherty, Jacob Weitering, Brodie Kemp
HB: Adam Saad, Mitch McGovern, Nick Haynes
C: Blake Acres, Adam Cerra, Ollie Hollands
HF: Elijah Hollands, Harry McKay, Alex Cincotta
F: Corey Durdin, Charlie Curnow, Jesse Motlop
RK: Tom De Koning, Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh
INT: Jack Silvangi, George Hewett, Jagga Smith, Zac Williams, Lachie Fogarty (sub)
ANALYSIS:
On the surface, Carlton is blessed with the best top-end talent on any list. These are the cream of the crop. The best of the best. Every position can mount a case for being the best in the league.
But premierships aren’t won with just the top-end talent, and although it can be enticing to be sucked in by the superstars, you need to look below the surface to get a true gauge as to the Blues’ premiership chances. You can have the best player in the league at your disposal, but how good is player 22? What does the depth look like? In Carlton’s case, spending big dollars on the big dogs might bring the crowds in, making the team look sexy on paper, but have they spread their wealth too thin?
Carlton has arguably the best key defender in the competition. Jacob Weitering, an All-Australian and two-time Best & Fairest, is arguably the Blues’ most important player. And at 27 years old, Weitering is still in his prime and will be the cornerstone of this defence for at least the next five years. But if we dig a little deeper, and we’ll be doing this a lot with the Blues, you’ll begin to see a pattern forming.
Because who is Carlton’s second tall defender? The consensus says Mitch McGovern is the incumbent, but at just 191cm, McGovern lacks the sheer size that a true centre-half back needs, and while his marking capabilities are tremendous, the fact remains that you simply can’t trust McGovern to feature regularly enough given the countless injuries he has had to deal with.
Then you look towards the man who is the long-term replacement for McGovern, in Brodie Kemp. But again, Kemp’s lack of size (192cm) holds him back slightly. The Blues clearly have high hopes for Kemp, putting a first-round draft pick on his head when the Saints came sniffing around during the trade period, but I’m sure they’d much prefer to play Kemp as the intercepting third tall option who can swing forward when required.
Perhaps the most obvious answer is Lewis Young, who at 202cm, has more than enough size to compete with whatever tall target an opposition will throw at the Blues. But if we’re being honest, Young still hasn’t fully cemented his spot as that second tall defender, and I have my doubts that he ever will.
Carlton’s medium defender depth is surprisingly strong. At least on paper. They’ve got one of the best running rebounders in Adam Saad. Supreme ball movement specialist Nic Newman. Leadership, toughness and inspiration in Sam Docherty. And in Nick Haynes, they’ve recruited an experienced performer who can be called upon whenever needed.
And it keeps going. Zac Williams has run and carry, Alex Cincotta can play anywhere and has become one of the premier taggers in the competition, Lachie Cowan has shown some excellent progress early in his career, and Harry Charleson, Billy Wilson, Matt Duffy and Matthew Carroll will provide sufficient depth in the long run.
If we were to end the story there, you’d come away thinking Carlton is locked and loaded, and good luck trying to curtail this army of small/medium defenders. But you already know that the surface has only just been scratched. The injury history here is as vast as it is devastating, and that doesn’t even take into account some glaring deficiencies in performances. Let’s face it, Saad doesn’t exactly have the best awareness of the hard ball, Newman’s season is already over and this is a glaring hole the Blues will struggle to cover, Cowan is still a little too inconsistent, Cincotta is needed more elsewhere, Williams and Haynes have leg muscles made out of jelly, and Docherty has had so much on his plate, both from injury and illness, that it is starting to take a toll.
The Blues have big questions to answer in its big man department, but this is more a question of how to spread its riches. Because in Tom De Koning, Carlton has one of the best, and most in-demand ruckman in the entire competition. De Koning is the prototype of the modern ruck; an athletic, agile pseudo-midfielder who can swing forward and regularly contribute on the scoreboard. To keep De Koning from playing elsewhere in 2026, the Blues have reportedly offered him upwards of $8 million over seven years, and he’ll bank even more cash if he chooses to leave.
But Carlton also sees value in Marc Pittonet, whom they believe is the better pure tap ruckman of the two. The problem is that when Pittonet plays, as good a tap specialist as he is, De Koning’s influence on the game decreases significantly. De Koning should always be considered the team’s number one option, but is there room for both in the same team, especially considering the logjam forward of the ball if Pittonet is forced to spend minutes there?
What more can be said about Carlton’s star-studded midfield? The reigning, and two-time, Brownlow medallist, a former number-one pick who looked destined for greatness from the moment he arrived, and another former top-five pick that on his day looks every bit a top-class player in the league.
They’re stacked on the periphery with names like Blake Acres, George Hewett, the Hollands brothers, and Matthew Cottrell all providing ample support to the top liners. They’ve got another potential superstar in number three pick Jagga Smith, but that will have to wait until 2026 after Smith suffered an ACL rupture in Carlton’s scratch match, and there are high hopes for Ben and Lucas Camporeale, sons of champion Blue Scott.
But every silver lining does come with a cloud. It is concerning that seemingly every pre-season, we read of yet another injury to Sam Walsh, and questions need to be asked how this keeps happening. Because this is still just a 24-year-old, and to have sustained as many injuries as he has calls into question if he will ever be able to be the superstar player we hope he will be. And ask the same questions about Adam Cerra, who has never been able to get his body right, leading to some questioning why Carlton backed themselves into a corner paying Cerra top dollar when he can’t get on the park consistently enough. All of this puts more pressure on Patrick Cripps to perform, and it means the aforementioned Acres, Hewett, and Cottrell need to step up, which they can do, but can they do it for long enough? The Hollands brothers look set to break out this season as the pure outside runners, and I can see this duo tearing up each wind for the next 15 years.
This is, without question, the best one-two key forward punch in the AFL. Three Coleman Medals, two players in their absolute prime, each knowing the other’s strengths allowing both superstars to shine. King Charlie, and Big Harry. If one doesn’t stop you, the other one will. It is quite the luxury to have the riches of two (arguably) top-five key forwards in the league because if injury should strike one of them, as has been the case in the pre-season, the other is capable of shouldering the load.
But in terms of depth, and like with many other positions on Carlton’s list, the Blues have spent all their cash on their two Big Kahunas, without factoring in what happens if one (or both) aren’t there. Sure, they could send Tom De Koning down there, but that then curbs the influence he could have around the ground. Then there’s often maligned Jack Silvagni, but he’s coming back from an ACL injury and might take time to get back to his best, and there’s been talk of him filling in as the third-tall option in defence. The Blues have taken steps to address this chasm by drafting Harry Lemmey, but he is still a long way from being ready for the key forward spotlight.
But forward lines cannot be judged simply off the back of the twin towers. You need a strong group of small forwards to get the job done on the ground when things aren’t favouring the big men. And this is especially true in the ultra-tough finals battles. And now that Carlton has decided that this is the small forward group that will carry them forward, after effectively discarding reliable goal-sneak Matthew Owies in one of the most head-scratching list decisions I’ve ever seen, I have some serious doubts over a forward line that, as we said, boasts the best one-two punch in the league, but struggles for everything else.
The Blues better hope that Jesse Motlop becomes the player they envision, because he is the best of a bunch of role players and no-names, with all respect intended. Motlop averages a goal a game in his short career, which is fine for a 21-year-old starting to make his way, but now that Owies is gone, Motlop is going to need to increase his goal sense rapidly. Corey Durdin is in the same boat, but will have to increase his output even more. Durdin has contributed 34 goals from his 48 AFL games, which isn’t enough for a forward of his importance. Lachie Fogarty now has enough experience under his belt to provide leadership to these two future stars, but he will also need to increase his output, which he has yet to show any real signs of achieving.
Because of his injury history, Orazio Fantasia can no longer be relied upon to deliver performances we know he is capable of (or at least, used to be capable of), and SSP recruit Francis Evans is a fringe player at best who comes cheaply to a team whose salary cap is bursting at the seams. Ashton Moir showed something in his brief appearances at the level, and will continue to develop, hopefully seeing more game time in 2025.
SYDNEY:
2025 Best 23:
B: Jake Lloyd, Tom McCartin, Dane Rampe
HB: Nick Blakey, Lewis Melican, Callum Mills
C: Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney, Justin McInerney
HF: Tom Papley, Joel Amartey, Ollie Florent
F: Hayden McLean, Logan McDonald, Will Hayward
RK: Brodie Grundy, James Rowbottom, Chad Warner
INT: James Jordon, Harry Cunningham, Sam Wicks, Matt Roberts, Braeden Campbell (sub)
ANALYSIS:
How can they come back from this? After a disastrous Grand Final loss in 2022, the Swans had a bit of a stumble, and if we’re being honest, they should’ve missed the 2023 finals series if not for that goal review blunder in Adelaide.
However, like good teams do, they rebounded, and took the competition by storm in 2024, only to suffer another Grand Final humiliation. And if the scars weren’t deep after 2022, they’ll be a gaping chasm now. But with a new coach now at the helm, will these Swans use their heartache to spur them on, or will it weigh them down?
In defence, the Swans enjoy a two-pronged attack that can rival any duo in the competition. Tom McCartin is the main piece and has quickly become one of the best key backmen in the league. At 25, McCartin is still relatively young in his career, and he is the set-and-forget defender for the next decade (and yes, I’m taking into account the pre-season move to the forward line. I think this will be a short-lived redeployment). But don’t overlook Lewis Melican. Personally, I think he gets a bad rap, and although he cops more than his fair share of supporters’ venom, he has proven to be a more than capable second banana, especially since the retirement of McCartin’s brother Paddy.
Despite only standing 187cm, Dane Rampe is a pseudo key defender and regularly plays on opponents far bigger than he. But at 34 years old, time is quickly running out for the former skipper, and while he has shown remarkable consistency, the fact is that Rampe’s body is slowly but surely breaking down. The Swans also brought in Joel Hamling as an emergency backup, but the journeyman is also on the wrong side of 30 and has dealt with numerous injuries in his career. Aaron Francis has shown some positive signs as another backup, but it would be a concern if he needed to be the main man for long stretches, and Riack Andrew, Patrick Snell, and William Edwards have all been drafted as the long-term replacements.
Sydney’s rebounding brigade is not only some of the best in the competition, but they’re all young enough that this level of brilliance will remain for the next decade. Captain Callum Mills missed a large portion of the season, and his leadership behind the ball was missed, forcing other players to step up in his absence. The main beneficiary of Mills’ layoff was Matt Roberts, who enjoyed a career-best season. The beauty of Roberts is that he is still just 21 years old, and in the infancy of his career, but he has already become a vital cog in Sydney’s defence.
But the two main options for setting up play from the backline are still Jake Lloyd (when not playing on the wing) and Nick Blakey, and in both men’s cases, how much can you say that hasn’t already been said? Blakey ventures up the ground more than Lloyd does, but Lloyd gets more of the ball to distribute (partly because he is the team’s designated kick-in specialist. Both are vital to Sydney’s defensive set-up, and although it can be argued that Lloyd’s statistics can sometimes be misleading, and Blakey goes missing in the big games a little too often, these negatives are slight nit-picks of two very impressive performers.
Reliable veteran Harry Cunningham still plays an important role as a back pocket stopper, former Saint Ben Paton has been brought in for his experience, and draftees Riley Bice and Blake Leidler will develop their craft in the level below.
Armed with a collective of destructive midfielders, the Swans identified the ruck as its missing link, following the retirement of career journeyman Tom Hickey. They had Peter Ladhams on their books, but he is a backup at best, and it’s asking for trouble if you’re relying on him to carry you for a full season.
Enter Brodie Grundy. After a less-than-ideal partnership with Max Gawn at Melbourne, Grundy was seeking another fresh start, and made his way to a team that fit him perfectly; a contender that needed that one final piece of the puzzle. Grundy thrived in his debut season, relishing the opportunity to be the undisputed number one ruckman, and his career-best, “pseudo-midfielder”, form returned. Grundy gave the Swans’ midfield plenty of beautiful ball, and if the Swans are to repeat their finals push in 2025, Grundy will be at the forefront.
You can’t properly analyse Sydney’s list without diving into one of the deepest and strongest midfields in the competition. We can talk all day about the Big Three (and don’t worry, we will), but to truly understand just how dominant this group is, we have to look at the periphery.
At any other club, James Rowbottom would be a superstar. But what a luxury that at the Swans, he is fourth on the list. Despite being capable of game-breaking bursts of speed, Rowbottom’s biggest strength lies in his ability to play a more defensive role, and last season he led the league for tackles. And take everything I said about Rowbottom, and apply it directly to Justin McInerney. Both players step up when they need to, but the stats don’t paint the full picture, because of their teammates, Rowbottom and McInerney often don’t need to accumulate the amount of ball they’re capable of.
They’ve got James Jordon to do the bulk of the tagging work, but he’s a better player than that, and whenever the team needs him, he can take over a quarter with clean ball use and toughness. Braeden Campbell has almost become the designated “super-sub”, and his immediate impact late in games has swung matches in Sydney’s favour so often that the Swans routinely use this tactic. And if that wasn’t enough, there’s Taylor Adams, who would be a mainstay in any other midfield, but here, Adams has found himself on the outside looking in more often than he’d like. Angus Sheldrick has had a very strong pre-season and looks set to take his game to another level in 2025. Draftees Jesse Dattoli, Indhi Kirk, Caleb Mitchell, and Tom Hanily will continue developing in the VFL.
But honestly, most of Sydney’s success will come down to perhaps the best midfield trio in the AFL. Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden, and Chad Warner are all at the top of their game, all are incumbents in the All-Australian team, and I have yet to see a team curb the influence of all three superstars at the same time. Such is their talent, the Swans can use two of the trio in the middle, while the other rests in the forward line. You can contain one, maybe two if you’re lucky, but on any given day, at least one of them will tear you to shreds. And you’ll count your lucky stars if it’s just one doing the damage.
For a team that has enjoyed so much home-and-away success, Sydney has a big problem forward of centre. What is to be done with its three key forwards? All three of Logan McDonald, Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean play most games, but carrying them all is starting to become an issue. You can see why John Longmire persisted with the trio; on any given day they can produce a breakout performance. Both those moments of dominance are becoming fewer and farther between.
McDonald has the highest hopes and has performed the most consistently, but too often he gets taken completely out of the game. The same goes for Amartey, who had that famous nine-goal bag against the Crows but faded back into obscurity by the end of the year. And with Sydney only playing one genuine ruckman, McLean is a walk-up starter as the back-up ruck, but does he actually do anything else when he’s not in the centre square? It’s becoming clear that Sydney will eventually have to pick two of the three to carry forward because persisting with the trio isn’t doing anyone any favours.
Thankfully, Sydney’s small forwards are much more stable, and all can work alongside each other. Tom Papley is undoubtedly Sydney’s best forward, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a better small forward league-wide. Papley and teammate Will Hayward bring boundless energy to the Swans’ forward line, and I’m looking forward to the point where Hayward can graduate into the midfield full-time. Robbie Fox is an underrated gem and is too often overlooked for the roles he is asked to play. Whether it’s as a defensive forward, tagging defender, or linking wingman, Fox is the teammate everyone wants, and his selfless attitude is to be admired. Ollie Florent can play both forward and back, and honestly, I think he should be the one to replace Dane Rampe down the line, Sam Wicks is in the best 23, but only as an interchange bench player. Even then, he might switch to defence, and Corey Warner and Caiden Cleary are decent back-up options.
It might seem a little harsh to label these teams as having no heart, as I did in the subtitle of this piece. But you just have to look at the facts. For all the talk about ‘Bloods culture’, Sydney has been blown off the park in two of the last three Grand Finals, and that doesn’t even take into consideration the two losses before that, one of which was also a 60-plus point margin. The scars run deep with this club, and if they want to shed the tag I have (perhaps unfairly) placed on them, they’ll need to get back to the Big Dance and prove they can actually compete.
And for the Blues, they just need to prove that they can be taken seriously. Because they have simply underperformed for far too long, having only tasted premiership success once since 1987. As we’ve seen, the top-end talent is some of the best in the league, but it’s the players on the periphery that need to stand up when the chips are down. Do that, and this club could be one of the very best in the competition. But so far, it just hasn’t happened often enough.
MATT OMAN’S PROJECTED 2025 LADDER
1
2
3
4
5 Sydney
6 Carlton
7 Hawthorn
8 Melbourne
9 Adelaide
10 Port Adelaide
11 Gold Coast
12 Collingwood
13 Western Bulldogs
14 North Melbourne
15 Essendon
16 West Coast
17 St Kilda
18 Richmond
