PART TWO: BOTTOM FOUR
After taking a deep dive into the two teams I believe are in for the toughest of 2025 seasons, we now come to Part Two of our list analysis series, and this time we’re looking at the other two sides that will occupy the pointy end of the draft ladder.
One of these teams has been in terrible pain, seemingly rooted to the bottom of the table forever until the arrival of the new King of Western Australia.
The other has been in a different kind of pain. There, or thereabouts, and at times looked like making the jump into the upper echelon. But even with this positivity surrounding them, different circumstances, whether by their own doing or just sheer dumb unluck, have held onto an unwanted record for two decades.
List Analysis Part Two. West Coast and Essendon.
WEST COAST:
2025 Best 23:
B: Liam Duggan, Harry Edwards, Tom Cole
HB: Brady Hough, Jeremy McGovern, Liam Baker
C: Bo Allan, Harley Reid, Rueben Ginbey
HF: Jamie Cripps, Jake Waterman, Jack Graham
F: Matthew Owies, Oscar Allen, Liam Ryan
RK: Bailey Williams, Elliot Yeo, Tim Kelly
INT: Campbell Chesser, Noah Long, Jayden Hunt, Ryan Maric, Elijah Hewett (sub)
ANALYSIS:
We all remember that game against Sydney in 2023. You know the one. 205-34. It was a 171-point smashing, leaving us all wondering when this team would start to make inroads. When would they begin to climb even one rung of the ladder?
But 2024 saw the arrival of the saviour. When Harley Reid burst onto the scene, he not only helped sell millions of copies of the West Australian newspaper, he quickly ushered in a new era for the Eagles. Armed with a “follow me and I’ll take you to greatness” attitude, West Coast finally made some big strides in their quest for relevancy. However, as positive as 2024 was for the Eagles, their list still has some sizeable holes that need filling.
The loss of Tom Barrass has left the Eagles very thin in the key defensive posts. Yes, they’ve got superstar Jeremy McGovern, who is back in career-best form, but young Harry Edwards will now need to step into the big shoes left by Barrass and hope that he can form as strong a defensive partnership as McGovern had with Barrass. And you’ve also got to remember that McGovern will be 33 years old early in the season, and has dealt with plenty of injuries over his football journey. The only other key defender on the list is Rhett Bazzo, who has shown some good signs early in his career, and with McGovern entering the twilight of his career, Bazzo looms as the next man up.
Small and medium defenders are much more stable, and a few have shown potential to graduate into the midfield fairly quickly. Liam Duggan is the co-captain, a hard-as-rock steadying influence behind the ball. Tom Cole is the hugely underrated tough nut small forward minder, and Brady Hough is the intercepting rebounder making his way in the game.
The upper echelon of West Coast’s midfield rivals any other midfield in the competition. In experienced bodies Tim Kelly, Dom Sheed, and Elliot Yeo, the Eagles boast a trio that, on its day, can turn a game in minutes through the sheer weight of ball being won. However, all three have had injuries that have kept them out for long periods of the season, and this has forced the coaching staff to blood new players before they’re fully ready for the responsibility.
And full disclosure, after I wrote that paragraph, all three have made headlines for various reasons. Dom Sheed is in the boat that has completely sank, his 2025 season over before it started with an ACL injury. Elliot Yeo’s dicey history once again surfaced to ruin his run at the year, hobbling off the track with knee and ankle injuries that will likely sideline him for the start of the season (I have kept him in the line-up because all things going well I expect to see him by Round 3). Then there’s Tim Kelly, who revealed he has fallen out of love with football. I understand that this isn’t a physical injury, but it does paint a picture of a player whose heart might not be in this 100%, which could impact his effort on the field.
In Rueben Ginbey, West Coast has what could become one of the club’s greatest assets. He’s started as a half-back, but like Hayden Young before him, a permanent move into the midfield is looking more and more likely by the day. I’ve put him on the wing for now, mostly because he is at the point in his career when he can basically play anywhere, and even though he has only played 40 games, he has the maturity and composure of a 200 gamer.
All of Elijah Hewett (who has also had his injury concerns), Campbell Chesser, Noah Long, Ryan Maric (who started as a forward and has also spent time in defence), and Clay Hall, have been deployed through the midfield with varying degrees of success, and while all would be depth players plying their craft in the level below in any other AFL side, each has had to shoulder more their fair share of responsibility. It’s been great for their development, but could also have affected their confidence, as the West Coast midfield has been routinely beaten up by the stronger team in the league. Jayden Hunt has also played vital midfield minutes while rotating through wing and half-back, where he and the coaches would prefer he plays. I’ve started him on the bench, but he adds some real speed and dare.
Then there’s Harley Reid. I’ve spoken a bit about him above, so I won’t go into much more detail, only to say that his is perhaps the most sought-after signature in the entire competition, and if/when he comes out of contract, it won’t just be Victorian clubs trying to lure him home, but I can envision the entire competition trying to get their contract in front of the hottest young player in the game. Draftee Bo Allan can also enter that realm, such is the hype around him from Western Australia, and the brilliant thing for the Eagles is that he won’t have the lure of home to lure him away from the club.
Since taking over from Nic Natanui, Bailey Williams has had a stranglehold on the number one ruck position. He was neck and neck in a tussle with recruit Matt Flynn, but a few injuries meant that Williams took charge and didn’t look back. While not an out-and-out superstar like some of his cohorts, Williams does his job every single week and is a reliable workhorse for the midfielders underneath him. Aside from Flynn, Callum Jamieson, Harry Barnett (who have both shown plenty of upside with a bit more development) and rookie Coen Livingstone are all waiting for their opportunity.
West Coast’s forward line, on paper at least, actually looks very threatening. Co-captain Oscar Allen is the main piece of the puzzle, and when he’s fit and firing, he is one of the most dangerous key forwards in the competition. Unfortunately, Allen’s injury history has meant that for large portions of the last few seasons, the Eagles have had to find a makeshift tall setup for the midfield to kick to.
That is, until Jake Waterman stepped up, and proved, like Kyle Langford at Essendon before him, that he can make it as a number-one target. In the six seasons before 2024, Waterman had only kicked more goals than he played games just once (2019, with 15 goals from 13 games), but he exploded with 53 goals last season, earning his maiden All-Australian jacket. A quick look at the players behind Allen and Waterman shows a concerning lack of depth, with Archer Reid, Jack Williams, and draftee Jobe Shanahan waiting in the wings. Ryan Maric has played the role but is being groomed as a midfielder/defender, and the ruckmen can also pinch-hit for a minute or two.
Shrewd recruiting in the off-season has bolstered West Coast’s small forward stocks, a gap that like everything else on their list, needed filling badly. Jack Graham, a strong leader who can play through the middle but has a big issue with soft tissue injuries, and Matthew Owies, a highly underrated crafty goal kicker who was forced out of Carlton as they made other deals, all bring something special that changes the dynamic of West Coast’s forward line, so long as their bodies hold up. Jack Petruccelle and Tyler Brockman have both shown plenty at the top level and provide handy backup depth.
I’ve tried to be as positive as possible, knowing that the darkest days appear behind the Eagles. They’ve recruited smartly, and have drafted some of the brightest diamonds the club has ever seen. But even with all that said, the climb up the ladder won’t happen overnight, and a bottom-four finish still seems the most likely scenario.
ESSENDON:
2025 Best 23:
B: Jayden Laverde, Ben McKay, Andrew McGrath
HB: Mason Redman, Jordan Ridley, Nic Martin
C: Xavier Duursma, Jye Caldwell, Archie Perkins
HF: Sam Durham, Kyle Langford, Harrison Jones
F: Jade Gresham, Peter Wright, Nate Caddy
RK: Sam Draper, Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett
INT: Nik Cox, Dylan Shiel, Ben Hobbs, Matt Guelfi, Elijah Tsatas (sub)
ANALYSIS:
I can’t imagine the pain and suffering Essendon fans have gone through in the last 20 years. Actually, yes I can. I barrack for the New York Jets. I know exactly what it feels like!
Every year is the same at Windy Hill. Expectation builds in the off-season, the Bombers start the season well, and those pre-season expectations look accurate. Then, around the bye weeks, things begin to change, and before any of us can blink, Essendon’s season has spiralled out of control, and they either scrape into finals and get blown away in the first week or miss September action altogether.
So will this season turn out any differently?
One of the Bombers’ biggest issues in 2023 was their lack of height in defence. Jayden Laverde took the big forwards, and he performed admirably, but he’s only 192cm and was exposed for height too often. Jordan Ridley is taller at 195cm, but he plays much more of an intercepting role and had injury problems that kept him from featuring at all. It made sense then when Essendon managed to land former Kangaroo Ben McKay, and finally, the Bombers had the monster full-back they could count on. The tandem of McKay, Laverde and Ridley worked well, with McKay able to handle the gorilla full-forwards, Laverde could take the second banana, and if opposition clubs had a third key target, Ridley was there to intercept when required. Essendon will also be hoping that Zach Reid can develop into a strong defender as well, and while he has had four years of growth under his belt, he has dealt with significant injuries that leave many wondering if he’ll ever be the player Essendon fans hope for. He is one to watch during this pre-season – fingers crossed his body holds up and he is able to slot in as a key defender very quickly.
There’s also no doubt that Essendon’s three-pronged rebounding attack is their best asset. Vice-captain Andrew McGrath, super smooth Nic Martin, and tough-as-nails Mason Redman all bring something slightly different to the table. And each player’s strengths complement the others. Martin’s ball use is exemplary, Redman will dive on a grenade if he has to, and McGrath’s leadership and direction keep the whole system working in the same direction. All of them also have the versatility to play relieving midfield minutes, although of the three, Martin spends the most amount of time up the field. Archie Roberts, Luamon Lual and recruit Jaxon Prior will all provide handy depth when needed and will develop more in the VFL.
Perhaps surprisingly, the Bombers find themselves with extremely healthy ruck stocks. The Bombers prefer to play with a two-pronged attack, starting with incumbent but injury-prone Sam Draper. Draper is the modern athletic ruckman who is capable of swinging forward when needed, so to counter that, the Bombers brought in Todd Goldstein, who in 14 games last season, proved a handy pick-up as a solid option to provide valuable ruck minutes and not diminish their advantage in the centre square.
Goldstein had to shoulder a little more responsibility than Essendon would’ve ideally wanted, and when they needed to bring in a third option, Nick Bryan came in and barely missed a step. After what the Bombers saw from Bryan, and given their propensity for playing dual rucks, I expect to see the tandem of Draper and Bryan for most of the season, with 36-year-old Goldstein stepping in only when emergency strikes.
On paper, Essendon’s midfield, simply put, is excellent. Led by Zach Merrett, who is one of the best players, and leaders in the competition, the Bombers seem to possess a small army of damaging ball winners who can tear a game to shreds in minutes. But are they a little one-dimensional? Merrett is the exception, he can win the ball and be supremely damaging on the outside. But in Darcy Parish. Jye Caldwell, Dylan Shiel, Will Setterfield and Ben Hobbs, the Bombers have a collection of contested possession winners that don’t have the strongest running capacity or disposal efficiency. Xavier Duursma is an outside running specialist, but he is a tad too inconsistent with the amount of inside 50 ball he can generate, and goes missing too often. Depth players include Elijah Tsatas, who deserves the opportunity to show what he can do, and draftees Rhys Unwin and Zach Johnson, who will develop in the VFL.
Then there’s Harrison Jones and Nik Cox. What exactly are they? I don’t even think they themselves know the true answer. Both have been trialled all over the ground, and neither has fully cemented a spot in one particular position. Maybe that makes them the special unicorn types that clubs seem to fawn over, but when push comes to shove, you need to know which area of the ground they specialise in, so you can send them there when things aren’t going their way. Cox has been the victim of far too many injuries to count, and Jones’ athleticism and skill have seen him play as a lead-up key forward, intercepting defender and running wingman.
With both Cox and Jones able to fill in up forward when necessary, it means the depth of key forwards looks a little better. And it will need to be, given only two Bombers kicked over 20 goals, and one of them is gone now. Kyle Langford has transformed himself into an All-Australian calibre forward, and his 43-goal return last return was only a fraction of what he is capable of. Peter Wright can also lead Essendon back to the Promised Land, as shown by his 53 goal, Best & Fairest 2022 season. And then there’s possibly the best key prospect seen in years; Nate Caddy. He only showed glimpses of his potential last season, and with Jake Stringer now out west of Sydney, a spot has opened up for Caddy to prove what he can do at the top level fully.
In Jade Gresham and Matt Guelfi, the Bombers enjoy a small/medium forward trio with supreme talent that has shown that their best is excellent. Certainly, Gresham is the most talented of the two (which is showing no disrespect to Guelfi’s talents), but what Guelfi lacks in talent he makes up for in enthusiasm and a willingness to put his body on the line. Gresham can be a 35-40 goal small forward, but it’s been six seasons since he’s put up those kinds of numbers, and the question remains whether he can get back to that level. We know that Guelfi will miss the start of the season, likely until after Gather Round, with a hamstring injury, but he is a starting 18 player when fully fit.
Of Essendon’s young forward line depth, draftee Isaac Kako is the most likely to feature early, and a strong pre-season could see a round-one debut for the crafty speedster. Alwyn Davey Jr has shown a lot of promise in his 10 senior appearances, and Jye Menzie is a capable option, having played 35 games in the last two seasons. Unfortunately for Saad El-Hawli, who showed some real promise at VFL level, a syndesmosis injury has kept him on the sidelines and stunted his development.
Finally, there’s Archie Perkins and Sam Durham, two players of equal importance to Essendon’s structure forward of centre. Both are around the same age (Perkins 22, Durham 23), both have played around the same number of games (Perkins 80, Durham 71), and both play similar roles for the team, as the wingman/high half-forward using their running power a skilful ball use to perfection. To say these two are interchangeable is doing them a disservice, but if both are on the field, you can start one on the wing, in this case, Perkins, leaving the other on the half-forward line, Durham in this instance, and swap the two around as the needs of the team require. Then throw them into the middle, as required.
Like our friends from part one of this series, there is more pain to be had for both of these sides. From West Coast’s point of view, the pain is only temporary, and after the last few seasons they’ve had, and move upward will be a positive in the eyes of many Eagles fans. Development is key for West Coast, and while wins are important for growth, it’s not the be-all-end-all just yet.
For Essendon, they are simply far too hard to get a proper read on. As I said, they always seem to repeat the same cycle of starting a season well to increase expectations, before falling off the perch spectacularly. It could be that I’m focusing on the second half of their seasons a little too much, and the loss of Stringer will hurt them more than they realise, but if Caddy can realise his potential and the midfield around Merrett, they could return to finals sooner rather than later.
MATT OMAN’S PROJECTED 2025 LADDER
1 –
2 –
3 –
4 –
5 –
6 –
7 –
8 –
9 –
10 –
11 –
12 –
13 –
14 –
15 – Essendon
16 – West Coast
17 – St Kilda
18 – Richmond
