Come on, HB… you’re better than this…
I’ve been telling myself that, but… I guess I’m not.
You see, we haven’t even started practice matches, and already, I’m taking the bait and speculating on where a certain player could end up next year? There is a whole bloody season to cover before we get to that point!
I know, I know… but I do love a good bit of speculation, and as reports filter through that St Kilda is preparing a ‘Godfather’ offer for Carlton’s Tom De Koning, it is probably a decent time to have a look at the situation.
Of course, I could also look into the rash of high-grade hamstring injuries this preseason, or something meaty like that, and I might at some stage, but for the moment it is this situation that has caught my eye, and my imagination.
Tom De Koning is set to become a Restricted Free Agent following the 2025 season, assuming that he does not cut a deal with the Blues to remain at the club in the interim. SEN today reported that the Saints are willing to offer a mammoth seven-year deal worth around 1.7 million dollars per season to the Carlton ruck/forward should he opt to test that free agency.
Now, leaks at clubs happen – a little too often for my liking – but this is VERY early to be having these types of discussions. My initial thought is that it may well be De Koning’s management throwing out a figure and hoping someone latches onto it and runs with it (thank you, Sam Edmund). It gives the Blues a ballpark figure to start their negotiations with, and work their way down to retain TDK’s services, and it puts De Konings’s name in the headlines.
Management 101.
But for the sake of a speculative article, let’s take things at face value, and have a look what it could mean to both clubs if there is genuine interest from the Saints, and there is reciprocal interest from De Koning.
TOM DE KONING SHOULD HEAD TO ST KILDA
It’s tantalising.
Bloody expensive, if the initial figures can be trusted, but let’s look at what St Kilda would be getting for their dollar.
De Koning is third fiddle in the Carlton forward line when he plays there. He is also a 50/50 split in the ruck when he plays there, at the moment. What will he be at St Kilda?
Well, there is the presence of Rowan Marshall in the ruck that will prevent him from being the clear number one option in the ruck, but that is not the issue that intrigues me.
It’s up forward that makes the most sense if he heads to Moorabbin. It gives the Saints a legitimate marking option to draw defences away from Max King. At 25 (26 by the time free agency kicks in), TDK is entering the prime years for a big bloke. To have him, at physical maturity, providing a target inside 50 provides the Saints with a very powerful one-two aerial punch. He is also more the type of player that handles contact better than Max King, which will enable him to crash packs – something King doesn’t do all that well.
With King locked away until the end of the 2032 season, adding De Koning on a commensurate contract would give the pairing time to gel and become a genuine force in the league.
And what of Marshall?
Well, Rowan is one of the few rucks capable of resting forward and presenting as a genuine marking option inside 50. Unlike some of the more lumbering big men, he is mobile enough to lead, put some distance on his opponent, and clunk a mark.
I can see a Marshall/De Koning combination at St Kilda becoming what Fremantle wants the Darcy/Jackson combination to be.
Will De Koning fit at Moorabbin? His role would be bigger, as he would not be behind both Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, so I can see why he’d entertain the offer, if it actually comes to pass.
If it is about money, the choice would be an easy one. However, there are more things involved in a decision like this than just money, most of the time.
TOM DE KONING SHOULD STAY AT CARLTON
De Koning re-signed with Carlton just a couple of years ago, putting to bed, at least in the interim, any thoughts of seeing him in another set of colours. At the time, there was speculation that he would look to join his brother at Geelong (but he was far too young for Geelong to recruit, right? Right?!?!).
Maybe it’s time we start aiming age-jokes at Collingwood…
Anyway, he signed for just the two years, with the knowledge that this contract would take him into this free agency window. In that period, he has emerged as a potent ruck/forward who many believe will continue to grow as a legitimate threat in both areas.
Just prior to TDK’s signature, the Blues also re-signed Marc Pittonet on a four-year deal. Around this time, I was openly wondering whether this was an insurance policy for the possible departure of De Koning.
Pittonet will become a Restricted Free Agent in his own right at the conclusion of the 2027 season, so in terms of immediate coverage, the Blues will not suffer too badly should TDK decide to pack his bags and go.
On top of that, if we look at the other area of the ground TDK occupies, the Blues are blessed with Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow – two of the top forwards in the game – sitting inside the forward fifty. As gifted as De Koning may be, and as good as he could get, is he going to replace one of those two guys in the pecking order in the next couple of years?
No, not for a while. Curnow is three years older. McKay is only two years his senior. As it stands, de Koning is a third forward in that setup, which does provide him the freedom to play back-up ruck.
He could very-well replace Pittonet as the outright first ruck which, depending on how he goes, could well justify a big jump in salary, but if he is still a part-timer in that role, the Blues will be in a situation where they are forced to wonder whether they are getting bang for their large amount of bucks.
As much as the Blues would like to keep him, I am not sure that you can be slinging that much coin around on a part-time ruck/forward. Not when you have players like Walsh, Weitering, Cripps, Curnow, and McKay on top dollar, as well.
In the end, let’s just say the price for TDK levels out at a more acceptable 1.4 million per year. If he is worth that, what type of money is Walsh going to ask for when he enters Restricted Free Agency after 2026? If I were the Blues, I’d be willing to bargain, but that price is a bit of a killer.
And then there is the matter of club success to factor in.
THE VERDICT
I am no fan of the football mercenary, but this is the big contract for TDK. This is where he makes the money to set up the remainder of his career, and his life. If the Saints are prepared to offer 12 million dollars over seven years, as reported, some would say he’d be a fool to pass it up.
He will be offered a bigger role, and with that comes more responsibility. In truth, he has had a bit of a charmed run to this point of his career – the footy equivalent of “all-care and no responsibility”, given who he is playing behind and beside.
If I were in his shoes, would I take it?
I suppose how the Blues perform in 2025 will have to be factored in. They are in a win-now position and should be contending. If not, why would he commit to a club who cannot make the most of the talent at its disposal?
By the same token, would he want to see an improvement from the Saints if he factors in team success? These blokes aren’t exactly going to point to their trophy case in an effort to convince him to make the move.
In the end, it is going to come down to three factors.
- Loyalty – does De Koning feel part of the fabric of the Carlton Football Club? Does he see himself in a navy blue jumper for the remainder of his footballing life?
- Money – What if the deal offered by St Kilda is $500K per year more than what the Blues can offer? Over a seven-year stretch, that’s $3.5 million. He could buy a single bedroom unit in Brunswick for that!
- Success – Which team is poised to make a genuine run over the next seven years?
If that figure, and the entire situation was fabricated by his management, my hat goes off to you. This is the desired effect – we’re all talking about TDK and the potential of him playing elsewhere in 2026.
It’ll bring the Blues to the table, as planned.
And maybe they can steal his uncontracted brother from Geelong to add as an incentive for him to hang around? 😉
A lot to play out, here.
As always, massive thanks to those who support this work. You can see the amount of care that goes into it. I love footy, I love writing about it, and I hope you enjoy reading it. Without you, this whole thing falls over. Sincerely… thank you – HB
Like this content? You could buy me a coffee – I do like coffee, but there is no guarantee I won’t use it to buy a doughnut… I like them more. And I am not brought to you by Sportsbet or Ladbrokes… or Bet365, or any of them.
