Oh boy, it’s that time of year again.
Time for me to stick my neck out with some pretty tenuous predictions about the upcoming AFL season, and time for you all to relentlessly pick them apart like the savage vultures you are.
Just kidding… please keep reading.
I made my debut as a Mongrel writer with this exact piece last pre-season, and while I’m not across our site’s analytics (I’ll leave that to the gadget type operator boffins like HB), I’d wager it was my top-performing article for reader engagement.
Gee, that makes it sound like I peaked way too early, but c’mon, we all know these pre-season predictions are just click fodder… again, I kid, please keep reading.
The premise of the yarn is simple: I pick three teams I think will slide down the ladder in 2025, and three teams I think will glide upwards.
So before we get stuck into my 2025 crystal ball (or crystal pipe, as some of you called it last year), let’s review how I went last season.
In the sliders, I tipped Melbourne, Brisbane and the Bulldogs to dip down the ranks. One made me look like a genius, one made me look like I should ride the special bus to school, and one didn’t really do much either way.
Overall, I’d say I went 1-1-1 on that, but I admit, tipping the eventual premiers to slide down the ladder stands out as a particularly Robert Walls-esque thing to do (hey, I was right for the first half of the year!).
With the gliders, I picked Adelaide, Fremantle and the Gold Coast… none played finals, so uhh, yeah, maybe I should give this up.
To be fair, I feel like I was just a year early on a couple of those, and you will see below that – like the moron I am – I am more than prepared to double down.
Alright, you salivating, rabid hounds have waited long enough. Here’s my picks, have at it!
Sliders
Sydney
Yeah, you heard me, I’m picking the team that was the most dominant for the largest chunk of last year to be less dominant.
In all seriousness, this actually felt like one of the more obvious choices to me. Not because I think Sydney will plummet out of the top eight, but just because they have too many questions heading into the season to think they’re a lock for the top four (and when you win last year’s minor premiership, you’re an easy target to tip for regression).
A few of our writers with ties to the Swans will probably baste me for this, but here’s some of those questions that I think the Swans will need to answer.
- How much will losing John Longmire hurt? Transitioning from a coach with such success and such long tenure won’t be easy.
- Will Callum Mills get back to his best? Had the year from hell in 2024, and needs a huge bounce back to help this team.
- Any grand final scars? This is a cliche, but also a reality. Not sure how much another grand final drubbing weighs on this group.
- How does Chad Warner perform in a contract year? He will make headlines every week so long as he remains unsigned, an unhelpful distraction.
- Their forward line kind of stinks.
Okay, the last one wasn’t a question, but it is probably the most pressing concern of the lot. The loss of Lance Franklin after 2023 still lingers, Logan McDonald seems to have regressed, and I wouldn’t want to put my eggs in the Joel Amartey basket.
Big watch on the Swans in 2025, can they put egg on my face as well as in that basket? Probably.
Hawthorn
Absolutely, 1000%, the prediction I am least confident in coming true – but give me a break, what’s a clickbait article without a little spice?!
I would like to preface this piece early by declaring my undying love for Nick Watson. I think he’s an absolute pest, but I love him, and he might have an All-Australian blazer by the end of 2025.
However… I’m not so sure about this whole Hokball bandwagon. Don’t get me wrong, we need to give these guys their flowers for how they played down the stretch in 2024. Sam Mitchell’s men were ferocious, aggressive and above all, entertaining. But, for me at least, I’m not prepared to turn this summer fling into a marriage, just yet.
Yes, the acquisitions of Tom Barrass and Josh Battle look fantastic on paper, and I don’t have any real tangible evidence to back up my belief that they could slide but like a good lawyer I’d like to cite precedence.
These Hawks remind me of the 2022 Fremantle side too much. A talented young side that got hot early in their development, went on a run, and actually claimed a scalp in the finals before ultimately getting the boot (although boy, they gave Port a shake).
Development isn’t always linear, though, in fact it rarely ever is. While last year’s finals will have provided invaluable lessons, the Hawks still enter this season with a largely inexperienced list.
They have question marks at key forward (fully expecting Calsher Dear fans to send me anthrax in the post now), their midfield still feels a bit thin to me and while their defence has been bolstered, we need to see how this all works with Sicily and co.
Again, I’m ready to accept that this may be dead wrong, and I know 99% of the AFL public are already on the bandwagon. I’m just not ready to take my seat yet.
Essendon
Oh man, this one feels like a drive-by, hey Bomber fans? Just when you thought you could escape into the bliss of irrelevance, here comes some fatso with a keyboard to slag off your club once again.
I know what you’re thinking: “We already missed the finals, how could you possibly put us in the sliders column? How much lower can we go?”
Well my reasons for putting you here don’t necessarily pertain to ladder position.
For much of last season the Bombers sat within the top four as much of the footy landscape sent them flowers weekly. At one point they looked like finals locks, at another they appeared destined for the double chance.
Then they did the thing the Bombers always do: Fail to deliver on expectations.
But don’t fret, Bomber tragics, this year will be way better… because you shouldn’t have any expectations to begin with.
Getting serious for a second, as a WA-based fan, I don’t have any feelings of ill-will toward Essendon, but I just can’t see an avenue to improvement this year. Or to even backing up the efforts of early 2024.
Jake Stringer might be the easiest bloke to make fun of in the AFL, and I know some Bomber fans are counting on addition by subtraction, but the reality is he kicked 42 goals this year that you’re going to need to find somewhere else.
I really like Nate Caddy, but in this team, in the situation he’s going to be in, it’s hard to see him having a great impact in 2025.
The remaining forwards inspire nothing (unless draftee Isaak Kako turns it on), the midfield remains what it has been for the past five years now and the defence is built around Ben McKay… I don’t get a great deal of joy piling on the pain here, but I can see the Bombers finishing even lower this season.
However, the good news for you Essendon die-hards is that last year’s column proved I’m kind of a big idiot, so you can throw this in the bin if you like.
Gliders
GWS
Alright, let’s talk about something positive.
This is kind of the inverse of the Essendon piece. A side that already finished high, yet bounced out in straight sets, being tipped to “glide” the following year.
It’s a bit odd, I grant you, but I’m planting my flag now – I have top-two hopes for the Giants this year, and I think they might win the flag.
I really like this team. Two dominant key backs, a midfield as good as any, a tough as nails ruck and a forward line that’s the envy of the league. What’s not to like?
Let’s talk about that forward line for a second. This might be the only team in the league that made any form of sense for Jake Stringer. He joins Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene, Toby Bedford, Brent Daniel, Darcy Jones, Aaron Cadman… I mean seriously, this is an embarrassment of riches.
Then down back, Sam Taylor gets anyone’s motor running, but Jack Buckley is just as solid in the contest.
I’m also tipping Finn Callaghan to take another step forward, based solely on the fact that I think he’s bloody good.
I’m gushing a little here, but at this time of year it’s all about what your team looks like on paper, and if we’re talking solely on paper, I struggle to find a better team than the Giants.
I’m expecting big sounds from the west of the town in 2025.
Fremantle
I’ve already mentioned how these bastards (I say so with love, as I am a Freo homer) made me look like a fool last season, but as the great Michael Scott once said: “Fool me once, strike one. But fool me twice, strike three…”
Like every January, I am ready for the Dockers to hurt me once again. But, and I say this seriously, this time feels different.
I’ve never known a Fremantle side to boast this level of talent, particularly in terms of forward firepower.
Josh Treacy has become a hot name even in the Melbourne media circles following his outstanding 45-goal campaign last season (which would have been much more had he not missed the final three rounds). Jye Amiss kicked 36 goals in what many have called a “down year” as a 20-year-old, and Luke Jackson continues to do weird things that I don’t know how to describe.
Now enter their star recruit, Shai Bolton. I’ve already written at length about how the forward maestro is the perfect fit to fill a void in Freo’s team (link the yarn here, HB, let’s milk these suckers while we have ‘em – Okay, here’s the Freo season preview), and I’m not alone in thinking that.
For the first time in maybe ever, Freo are high on the radar of fans, media, and opponents outside of their own patch.
The rest of the competition seems to be taking this team as a serious threat, and while that makes me extremely nervous for some inevitable downfall, it’s also something worth noting. It’s not just their own fans pumping the tires anymore.
Much will rest on the young midfield and how they go forward with more Hayden Young and less Nat Fyfe, but like GWS, it’s really hard to poke holes in this team on paper.
They’re still quite young, so there’s that, and I feel like their coach needs to back his group in and coach with a bit more flare, but that may come more naturally as the list continues to mature.
So, what’ll it be Freo? Are you ready to rise to the occasion, or am I going to have to triple down in this column next year?
Gold Coast
The second team who made me look like a moron last season. I guess it goes to show I’m loyal, right? Well, maybe just stupid…
Either way, I’m backing the Suns in again. If only for the fact that if they had just scraped together any kind of form away from home last year, they would have played finals comfortably.
I’m counting on some positive regression here. Surely they can’t be that bad away from home again, right?
Unlike the Bombers and Stringer, I actually do think losing Jack Lukosius will act as addition by subtraction for this mob. Too many times did we see his lack of effort and a lack of physicality cost the Suns, and I’m fairly sure Dimma was happy to see the back of him in the end (even if I still believe he has enormous talent).
Speaking of Dimma, another pre-season under the superstar coach’s system should be good for the Suns, and their player personnel is nothing to sneeze at.
Sam Flanders added plenty in a multitude of roles last year, but his addition to the midfield more often is an exciting prospect.
I love the recruiting of Daniel Rioli and to a lesser extent John Noble to play alongside Will Powell as runners off the half back and wing, and Mac Andrew will have plenty to live up to after signing a lucrative contract in the off season.
I see a world where Gold Coast maintain their red hot home form, and then maybe pick up just two or three more road wins… That’d be enough to break their finals duck, and have them firmly cemented in “glider” status.
So that’s that for another year of Sliders and Gliders.
I look forward to checking back in with you all to see how utterly incorrect I was over the next ten or so months.
So long as the Hawks or Swans don’t win the flag, I’ll have done better than my previous crack at it… (sorry Bombers, but you’re not going to embarrass me like this, no way).
